Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +8.8% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 15.2 +.5
  
• 2 Sectors Declining, 9 Sectors Rising
• 66.6% of Issues Advancing, 30.9% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.28 +9.4%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$2.3M
  
• 104 New 52-Week Highs, 29 New Lows
• 59.3% (+1.3%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 62.0 unch.
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 63.7 -.6%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 234.4 +.4%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 20,408.8 -.09%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 61.0 (GREED) -1.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 9.3 -21.3%
  
• Vix 19.5 +1.0%
  
• Total Put/Call .87 -2.3%

Wednesday Watch

Around X:

• @elonmusk

• The right choice is clear as day. (pic)
• Whoa! Terrorist encounters at the border. (graph)
• Documentary of @realDonaldTrump. You can watch the whole thing on 𝕏! (video)
• Extremely troubling. WokeAI would rather nuke the world than misgender. (pic)
• Fraud. This is 3rd World Corruption: Swing State Georgia, “Democrats are suing to prevent drop box surveillance”. Can anyone please give one logical explanation as to why Democrats would be suing in a Swing State to prevent drop box surveillance? (video)
• The Republican lead in North Carolina almost doubled from yesterday! Rumor has it that the Kamala campaign is shifting resources to shore up Virginia, which means they’re worried about losing Virginia. Let’s make even the blue states red!

• @LauraLoomer

• Senator John Thune @SenJohnThune is on Fox News right now talking about what he will do if he’s the next Senate GOP leader. He said Tax policy, Regulations, Energy, And then he said he would address open borders… Once again, Thune is lying. I’ll remind you that during the 1st Trump admin, Thune opposed Donald Trump’s national emergency to build the border wall, and he criticized President Trump’s immigration policy and the way Trump spoke about immigrants. (video)

• @CollinRugg

• NEW: Steve Bannon tells Nancy Pelosi she will never break him, calls on the American people to rush to the polls and vote. "Nancy Pelosi sent me to a federal prison... she wanted to break me." "Nancy Pelosi, take out your number two pencil and write this down... We're gonna deliver a knockout blow to your progressive insanity on November 5th." (video)

• @MTGrepp

• Capitol Police hold “Casualty Evacuation Exercise” at the Capitol with multiple helicopters last night. Stay with me on this. Trump told us to make it to big to rig and we are on our way to making that happen as long as everyone votes for Trump, but we are in danger of losing the House with approximately 20 House seats literally too close. Without the House, we can not pass critical legislation to bring forward our MAGA agenda. But also, if Democrats control the House, they will refuse to certify President Trump’s election on January 6th. They’ve already said they won’t certify.

• @nicksortor

• JUST IN: Bucks County, PA Emergency Services just SHUT DOWN the voting line in Doylestown. This is HOURS before they’re supposed to, and this comes after COUNTLESS reports of voter intimidation and shenanigans in the same county. VOTER SUPPRESSION! (video)

• @VigilantFox
  

• REPORT: Nicole Shanahan just released a jaw-dropping ad that exposes the Democrats as the party of cheating, and it's so good that it's giving people “goosebumps.” “The Big Cheat” tells the story about how Hillary bought her way to the top of the Democratic ticket when she paid the DNC's multi-million-dollar debt problem before the 2016 election. Clinton's Victory Fund that bailed the DNC out was “supposed to be for whoever the Democratic nominee was,” the short film reported. But instead, it became “a fund solely for Clinton.” “From the $82 million, only 1% was allocated for other down-ballot candidates like Bernie.” the film continued. (video)
  

• @JackPosobiec

• BREAKING: JOSH SHAPIRO SILENT AS PA ELECTION WORKERS ARE TELLING EARLY VOTERS IN PA THAT THEY CANT VOTE EVEN AS THEY ARE IN LINE. (video)

• @LibsOfTikTok

• ALERT!: A ballot printing error in Nevada County, CA, has caused scanning issues with 77,000 ballots, preventing the ballot counting machines from reading them properly. (video)
• The FBI and DOJ knew Hunter Biden’s laptop was real and covered it up to protect Joe Biden. People need to go to prison for this. (video)

• @Polymarket

• One week until the election. Trump • 66% chance Harris • 34% chance. (map)

• @Joma_gc
  

• Veteran Democrat strategist James Carville is telling campaign advisors and high-level donors behind the scenes that Kamala Harris is headed for a historic blowout, telling them she will lose every swing state and probably New Hampshire and Virginia too. (pic)

• @WallStreetApes

• Hurricane Helene Victims are now being threatened to have their children taken away. “DSS is threatening to take away children from parents in Western North Carolina because they're homeless” “Red Cross, the one that people donated millions of dollars to, has decided there's no longer a need for them in Western North Carolina and has started closing down their shelter with almost zero notice.” “Basically telling them to figure it out themselves and then having DSS come in and say, well if you can't figure it out I'm gonna take your kid because you're homeless. You've got to be freaking kidding me.” “You have people over here trying to donate campers and tiny homes, but the county wants to fight people about having permits to put tiny homes down.” (video)

• @patrickbetdavid

• 15 signs Trump is going to win barring a black swan event:

• @EricLDaugh

• BREAKING: The pro-Trump Wisconsin "WOW" counties just SURGED ahead of deep-blue Dane County turnout. This is a horrendous sign for Harris. (graph)

• @jackunheard

• BREAKING: The New York Times is reportedly preparing a critical article that will target 30 prominent conservative voices. The voices include: - Benny Johnson - Tim Pool - Tucker Carlson - Ben Shapiro - and many more. Their goal is to get them banned from YouTube before the election. Election interference.
• BREAKING: A video is going viral showing a Bucks County, Pennsylvania police officer blocking the door as voters attempted to enter at 4:38 PM ET, 22 minutes before closing. Blast this EVERYWHERE!!! Everyone needs to see it. (video)
  

• @BobbyJindal

• @KamalaHarris’s Medicare plan will give 12 million illegal immigrants gold-plated healthcare. It will flood the U.S. with more illegal immigrants. WATCH our new video from ⁦@A1Policy to learn why the plan will hurt seniors and America. (video)

• @LaraLogan
  

• Mike Benz is right - see how the narrative has shifted? They are focussed on their post-election strategy to make the country ungovernable & subvert the will of the people. (video)

• @MikeBenzCyber
  

• Victoria Nuland is now at the CIA’s #1 cut-out, the organization I keep warning you about, the prime mover in the censorship industry: the National Endowment for Democracy. (pic)

• @EndWokeness

• NY Mayor Adams obliterates the media: "Stop asking silly questions like about if Trump is a fascist or HitIer.. It gives you headlines and clicks, but it is not what Americans are dealing with." (video)

• @ElectionWiz
  

• OHIO SECRETARY OF STATE: The Biden Administration is blocking the state from accessing databases that would help verify whether voters are U.S. citizens. (video)

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 71.5 -.5 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 62.75 -.75 basis point.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 103.8 USD/Metric Tonne +.16%

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.2 +.01%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 64.5 +.6%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.7 +.6%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.04%.

• S&P 500 futures +.32%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.34%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Stable Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Yen Weakness, Tech/Road & Rail Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.2 -.13%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.59% -1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 103.5 USD/Metric Tonne -.08%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 42.87 euros/megawatt-hour +.82%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 28.4 +2.8 points
  

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -5.6 +.2 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -4.0 +1.1 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(210 of 500 reporting) +6.4% +3.0 percentage points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 268.31 unch.:  Growth Rate +15.0% unch., P/E 21.7 unch.
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.70% +6.0 basis points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(2 of 10 reporting) +37.1% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 370.92 +.17: Growth Rate +30.3% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.2 +.3
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .78 +5.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.15 +2.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve 15.0 basis point (2s/10s) +1.75 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 3Q GDPNow Forecast +2.79% -52.0 basis points
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 41.9 -2.7 percentage points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.62% unch.: CPI YoY +2.56% -1.0 basis point
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.30 +1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for Dec. 18th FOMC meeting: 71.4%(+2.4 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th meeting: 48.1%(+3.8 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.75-5.0%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +433 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +36 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +102 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech/industrial sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -.5%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Homebuilding -4.4% 2) Airlines -2.6% 3) Energy -1.8%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• TIMB, SOFI, NVS, GPK, NEP, CSWC, HNI, BP, VERA, AMKR, MHO, EYPT, TWO, AAOI, ASPN, PBF, HEES, F, NTLA, DHI, SWK, ATI, IBP, CSIQ, KNSA, CHKP, JKS, CECO, IEP, TYRA, CROX, BOOT, HLIT, CVI, DQ and TMDX
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) HTZ 2) AMKR 3) CROX 4) GSK 5) FND
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) CVI 2) CHKP 3) JBLU 4) CROX 5) HLIT
  

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) SMH 2) XLY 3) FDN 4) GDX 5) ITB

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.9%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Disk Drives +2.3% 2) Semis +1.9% 3) Networking +1.7%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• WGS, VFC, CVLT, HRMY, ESAB, CDNS, SSTK, RMBS, INCY, NARI, OPRA, THC, DJT, LDOS, FFIV, IPGP, TARS, GLW, LEG, CBZ, EHC, UPWK, AKRO, LEU, UPWK, TARS, HAYW, TREX, WM, LTC, RBRK, WELL, CR, NSP, ZBRA, PRCT, SPR, ESI, TGTX, PSO, RXST, WGO, RIOT, FVRR, RCL, RVMD, RDDT, BRO, SIBN and AMD
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) GPC 2) CYH 3) FOLD 4) ZI 5) JETS

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) VFC 2) DJT 3) CDNS 4) FFIV 5) LDOS
  

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLF 2) KRE 3) XLI 4) XBI 5) XLK
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (ABBV)/2.91
• (ADP)/2.21
• (BIIB)/3.77
• (EAT)/.69
• (BG)/2.14
• (CAT)/3.15
• (CDW)/2.85
• (CLH)/2.18
• (LLY)/1.45
• (FLEX)/.56
• (GRMN)/1.45
• (GSK)/1.15
• (HES)/.79
• (HUM)/3.42
• (ITW)/2.52
• (JKS)/-2.97
• (KHC)/.74
• (MLM)6.31
• (OSK)/2.92
• (PSN)/.80
• (SHAK)/.19
• (TEX)/1.31
• (TT)/3.24
• (UTHR)/6.55
• (VMC)/2.32
• (WING)/.96
• (XPO)/.90
• (ZBH)/1.74
  

After the Close: 

• (AFL)/1.68
• (ALL)/2.49
• (AMGN)/5.11
• (BKNG)/77.20
• (CHRW)/1.15
• (CVNA)/.30
• (CF)/1.16
• (CLX)/1.39
• (CTSH)/1.15
• (COIN)/.46
• (COLM)/1.36
• (CW)/2.69
• (DASH)/.20
• (EBAY)/1.18
• (EQIX)/8.70
• (EQR)/.98
• (ETD)/.56
• (ETSY)/.53
• (FTAI)/.77
• (GDDY)/1.23
• (KLAC)/7.04
•  (META)/5.22
• (MET)/2.18
• (MGM)/.55
• (MSFT)/3.10
• (MSTR)/-.12
• (MPWR)/3.97
• (PPC)/1.40
• (PRU)/3.47
• (HOOD)/.18
• (ROKU)/-.32
• (SFM)/.77
• (SPXC)/1.36
• (SBUX)/.85
• (RGR)/.56
• (SUM)/.68
• (TWLO)/.86
• (OLED)/1.19
• (ALK)/2.22
• (TEL)/1.94
• (RIG)/-.04
  

Economic Releases

8:15 am EST

• The ADP Employment Change for Oct. is estimated to fall to 111K versus 143K in Sept.
  

8:30 am EST

• 3Q GDP Annualized QoQ is estimated to rise +3.0% versus a +3.0% gain in 2Q.
• 3Q Personal Consumption is estimated to rise +3.3% versus a +2.8% gain in 2Q.
• 3Q Core PCE Price Index QoQ is estimated to rise +2.1% versus a +2.8% gain in 2Q.  
  

 10:00 am EST

• Pending Home Sales MoM for Sept. is estimated to rise +1.9% versus a +.6% gain in Aug.
  

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory gain of +1,374,330 barrels versus a +5,474,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to rise by +545,170 barrels versus a +878,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -987,500 barrels versus a -1,140,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.1% versus a +1.8% gain prior.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Treasury refunding announcement, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, (BSX) business update call and the (VFC) investor day could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST