Stocks Lower into Final Hour on US Debt-Related Concerns, Year-End Profit-Taking, Technical Selling, Consumer Discretionary/Tech Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.79 -.53%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.28% unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 101.1 USD/Metric Tonne +.5%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 47.6 euros/megawatt-hour -.2%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -1.6 -4.8 points
  

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -10.2 -4.8 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -4.3 +.2 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(19 of 500 reporting) +21.2% unch.
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 271.92 +.26:  Growth Rate +13.9% +.1 percentage point, P/E 21.8 -.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.57% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 392.70 +.10: Growth Rate +25.2% unch., P/E 33.9 -1.0
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .78 -4.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.65 -33.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve 29.0 basis points (2s/10s) -.25 basis point
  
• US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +3.09% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 22.7% +.8 percentage point
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.87% unch.: CPI YoY +2.86% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.32 -3.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for March 19th FOMC meeting: 48.4% (+3.1 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for May 7th meeting: 47.9%(+1.6 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -194 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -42 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +135 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower:  On losses in my tech/industrial/consumer discretionary sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -.6%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy -1.5% 2) Networking -1.2% 3) Retail -1.2%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• ARQQ, AXSM, BTDR, AVXL, ACHR and RUM
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) FFIE 2) AMKR 3) VRDN 4) ITB 5) TER
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) KYTX 2) HUMA 3) APLT 4) CPRI 5) NKE
  

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLF 2) XLI 3) IGV 4) XLV 5) ITB

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -.1%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Oil Service +1.9% 2) Energy +.7% 3) Regional Banks +.1%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• GRR, MESO, RCAT, PDYN, CRK, PONY, AR, SD, HSAI, PRTH, DEC, MSGE, LBRT, GPOR, RRC, TDW, EQT, RGTI, EFXT, NPWR, ENFN, RDW, AMTM, AEHR and DVN
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) LPSN 2) REKR 3) LODE 4) EDR 5) EDR

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) JG 2) FFIE 3) PDYN 4) HSAI 5) OCTO
  

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) PTF 2) MAGS 3) XLK 4) VGT 5) XLU
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• None of note
  

After the Close: 

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

9:00 am EST

• The FHFA House Price Index MoM for Oct. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.7% gain in Sept.
• The CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA for Oct. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.18% gain in Sept.
  

Upcoming Splits

• (MTH) 2-for-1
• (CVLG) 2-for-1
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Dallas Fed Services Revenues for Dec., Texas Services Sector Outlook for Dec., weekly US retail sales reports, week API crude oil stock report and the (RNG) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -6.1% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 21.2 -1.4
  
• 10 Sectors Declining, 1 Sector Rising
• 27.0% of Issues Advancing, 71.1% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.10 -2.7%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$348.5M
  
• 11 New 52-Week Highs, 138 New Lows
• 50.0% (-7.0%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 32.0 -5.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 67.7 -5.6%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 252.6 -.2%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 21,932.0 -.24%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 28.0 (FEAR) -5.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 13.4 -2.3%
  
• Vix 17.5 +9.9%
  
• Total Put/Call .97 +11.5%

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:      

• China’s Record Dividend Payout Intensifies Pressure on the Yuan.
• N. Korea Adopts ‘Strongest Response’ Plan Toward US: Yonhap.
• Asia’s 2025 Tech Race: TikTok, Trade Wars and AI Hype.
• Netanyahu’s Prostate Surgery Is a Success, Israeli Hospital Says. 
• Nvidia Supplier Ibiden Weighs Faster Expansion to Meet AI Demand.
• Elon Musk’s Political Influence Wears Down Global Resistance to Starlink.
• Most Asian Stocks Decline After US Tech Losses.
• Oil Steadies in Thin Trading as Traders Focus on 2025 Outlook.
• How the Pandemic Increased US Deaths Visualized in Eight Charts.
• US Economy Surprised Again in 2024 Despite Fed, Election Drama.
• Trump Urged by GOP Ally to Clear Path for House Speaker Vote.
• S&P 500’s 2024 Rally Shocked Forecasters Expecting It to Fizzle.
• How Baggy Are Your Jeans? And 10 Other Charts to Explain 2024.
• AT&T, Verizon Say Networks Now Clear After Salt Typhoon Hack.

Zero Hedge: 

• 'Philanthro-Capitalism' - RFK Jr. Questions Bill Gates' Motivations.
• "The Bond Markets Are Revolting" - Ed Dowd Exposes Biden Admin's "Incompetence... Or Fraud".
• 'Markets Remain Fragile & Shock Is Overdue' - BofA's Lessons From '24 To Remember In '25.
• Yellen Says US Will Hit Debt Ceiling Mid-January, Forcing Treasury To Employ 'Extraordinary Measures'.
• Your Brain Flushes Out Waste Every Night... Here's How To Help It Clean Up.
• Things That Won't Happen In 2025.
• 179 Dead In South Korea's Worst-Ever Aviation Disaster.
• Musk Appears To Soften Pro-Foreign Worker, H-1B Visa Stance Amid Online Spat.
• A Decade Of McFlation.
• New Israeli Airstrikes Near Damascus Kill 11: War Monitor.
• US Homelessness Epidemic Explodes Under Biden-Harris.
• Pandemic Hawks Circle Dr. Jay: Pundits Launch Attacks On Bhattacharya Ahead Of Confirmation Hearings.
• Latest Race Hoax: Slur Posted At College 'Fabricated' To Make Trump Backers Look Bad.
• Mexico To Open Shelters For Deported Citizens On Trump's Inauguration Day.
• Massie, MTG Urge Release Of Multimillion-Dollar 'Congressional Sexual Slush Fund List'.
• Is Optimism Too Optimistic For 2025?
• "The Last Spark Of Hope" For Germany - Musk Pens Pro-AfD Op-Ed In Major Paper; Editor Resigns.
• Trump's Tariff Threats Cast Shadow Over European Auto Industry.
• Germany Has No Defense Against Russian Ballistic Missiles, Govt Review Says.
• European Gas Prices Soar As Putin Says A New Ukraine Transit Deal Is Unlikely.
• Al Qaida Is Winning - The New Caliphate In Syria.
• "We Tested 300 Bay Area Foods For Plastic Chemicals" Here's What We Found...
• Cooking Oils Used By Millions Linked To Cancer In Second Study In A Week.
• Doug Casey On 2024's Defining Events And What Comes Next.
• Lefty Legal Experts Urge Congress To Disqualify Trump In Last Ditch Effort To Keep Him From Taking Office.
• Bankrupt Big Lots Strikes Sales Deal, Preserves Brand Name.

Wall Street Journal:

• Corporate America Drew Back From DEI. The Upheaval Isn’t Over.
• New York Will Now Tax America for Climate Change.
• The Bonfire of the Progressive Vanities. The Fed Gets Its Own Stress Test.
• After Another Bad Year for Bonds, Investors Lose Faith in a Turnaround.
• Haitians Flee Gangs on a Mountain Trail ‘Where Even the Dogs Don’t Go’.
• China Has Limited Firepower to Counter U.S. Tariffs.
• Fear That China Rules the Waves Jolts U.S. to Pursue Maritime Revival.
• Discounts on the Dealership Lot Lift Car Sales.
• Some Justice Department Lawyers Look for Protection—and the Exits.
• Will AI Help or Hurt Workers? One 26-Year-Old Found an Unexpected Answer.
• Why It Could Be a Great Year for Big Banks.
• Netflix’s Big Game Is Just Getting Started

CNBC:  

• Fiery plane crash kills 179 in worst airline disaster in South Korea.
• Why Microsoft, Amazon, Google and Meta are betting on nuclear power.
• Top Wall Street analysts suggest these stocks with attractive upside potential.
• 32-year-old lawyer quit her job, took a $150,000 pay cut to curb burnout: ‘I’m really happy’.

MarketWatch.com:  

• The ‘BATMMAAN’ stocks swooped to the market’s rescue in December. Will they keep climbing in 2025? 
• Investing pros think these stock-market losers are set to rebound in 2025.

NewsMax:

• Dick Morris: Trump Will Stop the Grift With H-1B Visas.
  

Fox News:

• Republican torches Dems’ narrative, exposes what Trump really said in 2020 versus their spin.
• Horrifying moments before doomed flight slams concrete barrier, erupts into inferno.
• Communists order largest military build-up since 1930s as expert issues stark warning.
• Ex-top Trudeau aide suggests his fate is sealed days after Trump floats NHL legend as PM.
• Costco doubles down on 'wokeness' while ignoring Bud Light backlash.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• HERE WE GO: Covid Tyrant Dr. Leana Wen Says Biden Regime Needs to Get Millions of Doses of Bird Flu Vaccines to the American People ASAP (VIDEO).
• Biden Furious at Merrick Garland Because He Didn’t Work Harder to Lock Up Donald Trump Before the Election.
• Well-Known Georgia Realtor Killed by Illegal Alien Released Into US By Biden Regime.
• Immigration Has Consequences: French Intel Chief Says Muslim Brotherhood is Working to Turn the Country Into an Islamic Caliphate. 
• Third Massive Car Manufacturer Ponies up for Trump, Donates 7 Figures to Make Jan 20 Unforgettable.
• Who Hid the incriminating Biden Family China Photos from the American Public – And Why Have They Not Been Arrested? – James Comer Promises to Investigate Biden-China Photo Scandal (VIDEO).
• Elon Musk Calls for Major Reform of Broken H-1B Visa Program — Proposes to Make it More Expensive to Hire Overseas Than Domestically.
• You Knew This Was Going to Happen: China Weaponizes Rare Earth Metals.
• Conservative Mikhail Kavelashvili Sworn-in as President of Georgia – Threats by Outgoing Globalist Salome Zurabishvili Fizzle, in Major Victory for Georgian Dream (VIDEOS).
• Senator Ron Johnson:”We Have to Know the Truth” About Vaccines, “Right Now We Don’t” (Video).
• Hospital Shuts Down NICU After Disturbing Discovery.
• ‘Yellowstone’ Actor Sees Shift in Hollywood ‘There’s a Tide of Change Going on Right Now’ (Video).
• Thanks to Cara Castronuova, President Trump and NYC Activists – Trump Support in the Bronx Surged to 27% in 2024 Election – Democrats Are Losing Their Base Voters.
• Disney Producers ‘Devastated’ at Decision to Axe Trans Character From Animated Series – Claim Trans Character Would Have ‘Saved Lives’.
• Communism Fumbles Again: Cuba Importing Resource It Was Once Famed For Producing.
• Michelle Obama Provokes Backlash With Social Media Post: ‘I Know it’s Been a Difficult Few Months for So Many of Us’ (VIDEO).
• STUDY: Late Night Losers Spent the Last Year Bashing Trump But Didn’t Move the Needle at All.
• DEI Roll Back: University of Iowa Announces Plans to Close Stand Alone Gender, Women’s, and Sexuality Studies Department.

The Epoch Times:

• China Launches New Amphibious Assault Ship With Aircraft Catapult.

Around X:

• @elonmusk

• Twitter (2022): - 65% Democrat - 31% Republican 𝕏 (2024) - 48% Democrat - 47% Republican. Looks like 𝕏 is more balanced than Twitter was. (video)
• The Woke Mind Virus in our Universities. Frequency of Terms Denoting Prejudice in 175 million Scholarly Abstracts ... it has increased dramatically over time. This is being driven by the far left in academia. Spread of the Woke Mind Virus is extremely measurable! (graphs)

• @Songpinganq
  

• Can you guess why are so many surveillance cameras for watching orange trees in China? (video)

• @JimFergusonUK
  

• WHO IS THE PUPPET MASTER BEHIND COVID? Dr. Robert Malone delivers a chilling warning: We are living through 5th generation warfare. Governments and globalist entities have unleashed the largest psychological operation in history—a global propaganda campaign designed to control and manipulate. He claims military-grade psy ops, once reserved for enemies, are now being turned against citizens: Our own governments have weaponized fear, division, and misinformation to achieve their agendas. (video)
• "Globalists Declare War on Free Speech". Under the guise of "protecting democracy," EU chief Ursula von der Leyen has unveiled a chilling plan to regulate social media platforms and control online discourse. Speaking in a World Economic Forum video, she stated: "We need to contain this immense power of the big digital companies... and defend our institutions against the corrosive power of hate speech, disinformation, fake news, and incitement to violence." Translation? Censorship. The same globalists who claim to "defend democracy" are the ones working to silence dissent, crush free speech, and centralize power. This isn’t about stopping disinformation—it’s about controlling YOU. Don’t let them rewrite the rules of truth. Stand up for freedom of thought, freedom of speech, and democracy itself.

• @TheChiefNerd

• Trump is talking about 1929 “potential disaster”. (pic)

• @MJTruthUltra

• There it is… this is truly evil… 10+ Childhood Vaccines Found to have far more Aluminum in them than what the FDA Reports Meaning…. They are potentially injecting enough aluminum into young children to INDUCE autoimmunity. This was discovered by A Peer-Reviewed Study from the world’s Leading Aluminum Expert. To make matters worse, the CDC’s own data shows that Aluminum Adjuvant’s that are injected into the body end up in every single Organ in the body. Here are a few Childhood vaccines with aluminu: - Hepatitis A - Hepatitis B - Diphtheria, Tetanus, and Pertussis (DTaP) - Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) - Human Papillomavirus (HPV) - Pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13). • The FDA was asked to confirm if the amount of Aluminum Adjuvants in the vial matches what’s on their own product label… The FDA was silent… (video)

• @MdBreathe

• Our military has been working on using drones to disperse vaccines on the population. Link to article in comments.

• @BGatesIsaPsycho

• ”There are currently at least 3 mRNA Bird Flu injections being developed”. “Currently running a trial - funded in part by The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation”. “They call it a Pandemic injection - not sure how they know there will be a Pandemic”. You just know this is coming for all of us - will you take a Bird Flu mRNA Vaccination? (video)

• @annvandersteel

• Jill Biden’s former press secretary is saying that replacing Biden with Kamala allowed them to flip seats in California. First things first. They didn’t flip them: THEY STOLE THEM. They kept counting for weeks after the election ended, until they got the desired results. And as usual, the Republicans did nothing to stop them. The game has become so rigged, they don’t even care if you see it anymore.

• @wideawake_media
  

• Robert F. Kennedy Jr: A researcher named Dan Olmsted "was very curious about unvaccinated populations, and the Amish are one of those populations." "So he went and he did a study of the Amish... Following the national trends, there should have been about 2,000 autism cases. And they were able to find three." "And all of them were children who had been adopted by the Amish after receiving their vaccines. Of the Amish in general, they could not find any." (video)

• @EmeraldRobinson
  

• You know that America's elections are rigg*d because anyone who tries to audit the software code is arrested. Anyone who tries to inspect the machines is attacked. Anyone who tries to count ballots by hand is sued. Anyone who tries to talk about it is banned.

OpenVAERS: 

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 1,021,130 Reports(+5,083 from prior report) Through November 29th, 2024.
  

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.5% to +.25% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 77.75 +.5 basis point.
  
• China Sovereign CDS 65.0 +.25 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 100.0 USD/Metric Tonne +1.2%.
  
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.0 unch.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 71.7 -.1%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 17.0 +.1%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.16%.
• S&P 500 futures -.06%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.02%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.