Friday, May 02, 2025

Evening Headlines

Zerohedge:

WSJ.com:

CNBC:

MarketWatch.com:

NewsMax:       

Fox News:

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

Epoch Times:

Around X:
  • @Zerohedge
  • There it is: Native-born workers: +1.04 million Foreign-born workers: -410,000. (graph)
  • @MarioNawful
  • BIDEN STACKED THE COURTS WITH ACTIVISTS IN ROBES. Before Trump got back in, Biden went wild with judge picks—over 80 nominees, many tied to far-left groups like the ACLU and SPLC. These aren’t your neutral “just-the-facts” types. We’re talking lawyers who fought against free speech and religious liberty—some even said pro-life centers don’t deserve First Amendment rights. One now sits on an appellate court and used to work at SPLC, a group famous for calling anyone they don’t like a “hate group.” Congrats, America—these judges don’t just rule, they campaign from the bench.
  • @itscarterhughes
  • @VigilantFox
  • @nicksortor
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @KanekoaTheGreat
  • NEW: @elonmusk and @DOGE expose that taxpayer money was spent renting out Caesars Palace and stadiums—for parties. "The computers at Treasury pay about $5 trillion per year. When payments are made, there was formerly not a budget code on there. So if a payment was made you didn't know what it was for." "There was a $4 billion COVID fund in the Department of Education. There was no receipts recquired so people could just draw down on it. They found out money was being used to rent out Ceasers Palace for parties, rent out stadiums, etc." (video)
  • @JasonJournoDC
  • @WarClandestine
  • My main objective is accomplished. When I was censored by Big Tech and smeared by the MSM in February 2022, for reporting on the US-funded biolabs in Ukraine, I set out on a mission to make as much noise as possible and get the information to the right people. It worked. After I was banned from nearly every social media platform, smeared by the entire Left-wing media, and all the “fact-checkers” claimed there were no biolabs in Ukraine at all, I reached out to my congressmen, looking to get assistance to rectify the unjust attacks against me. None of them responded, so I started reaching out to other prominent figures, hoping someone would listen. Only one person contacted me back. That person was none other than Tulsi Gabbard…
  • @MAGAPosts
  • @BasedMikeLee
  • @DC_Draino
  • @catturd2
  • @MegynKellyShow
OpenVAERS: 
SKirsch.com:

Weekly Scoreboard*

 

S&P 500 5,686.7 +2.9%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

  • DJIA 41,317.4 +3.0%
  • NASDAQ 17,977.7 +3.4%
  • Russell 2000 2,020.7 +3.2%
  • NYSE FANG+ 12,838.3 +4.1%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 167.9 +4.4%
  • Wilshire 5000 56,214.0 +3.2%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 3,802.8 +3.5%
  • Russell 1000 Value 1,823.6 +2.5%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 902.4 +1.1%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index(Ex Telecom) 230.7 +.5%
  • NYSE Technology 5,384.4 +4.7%
  • Transports 14,119.5 +4.7%
  • Utilities 1,041.3 +1.7%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 135.42 +2.3%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 45.10 +3.7%
  • Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 214.41 +.55%
  • Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 122.2 +.03%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 540,489 +.72%
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 13.8 -1.2%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 185 +85
  • Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -19.3 -24.8%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 170,955 +16.8%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,860,519 -3.0%
  • Total Put/Call .81 -3.7%
  • OEX Put/Call .90 +12.5%
  • ISE Sentiment 114.0 -28.0
  • NYSE Arms .95 -25.9%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 62.5 +3.3%
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.16 +10.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index 1.42 +49.0 basis points
  • Volatility(VIX) 22.6 -8.5%
  • S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .96 -27.3%
  • CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 32.8 -5.4%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 9.94 +3.11%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 8.78 +1.7%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 21,664.4 +1.6%
  • NAAIM Exposure Index  59.9 +19.2
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $6.908 Trillion -.06%
  • ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows +$3.240 Million
  • AAII % Bulls 20.9 -4.6%
  • AAII % Bears 59.3 +6.7%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 43.0 (FEAR) +8.0
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 289.49 -2.8%
  • Crude Oil 58.1/bbl. -8.03%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 201.5 -4.3%
  • Natural Gas 3.64 +22.5%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 33.1 euros/megawatt-hour +3.5%
  • Heating Oil 199.1 -8.3% 
  • Newcastle Coal 102.8 (1,000/metric ton) +9.0%
  • Gold 3,232.9 -2.7%
  • Silver 32.05 -3.3%
  • S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 436.2 -1.3%
  • Copper 467.7 -3.3%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 337.0 USD/Metric Tonne -3.7%
  • China Iron Ore Spot 96.4 USD/Metric Tonne -1.5%
  • China Battery Grade Lithium Carbonate 9,500.0 USD/metric tonne -2.3%
  • CME Lumber  582.0 +1.4%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,444.0 -2.0%
  • US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 317.5 USD/Short Ton unch.
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +1.1% +360.0 basis points
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 45.7% +3.4 percentage points
  • NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 2.27 -14.7%
  • US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 398.5 +203.4%
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 10.7 +.7%
  • DOGE Total Taxpayer Dollars Saved $160.0 Billion($1,045.75 Savings Per Taxpayer) unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(357 of 500 reporting) +13.3% -4.3 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 275.82 +.39:  Growth Rate +11.9% -.2 percentage point, P/E 20.3 +.4
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.38% -3.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +29.1% -14.1 percentage points
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 423.82 +5.87: Growth Rate +22.6% +1.7 percentage points, P/E 30.4 +1.4
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -12.9 -13.8 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -4.2 +3.6 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 22.6 +10.4 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 1.8%(-8.6 percentage points) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 4.0-4.25%, 98.2%(+8.6 percentage points) chance of no change, 0.0%(unch.) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 4.5-4.75% on 5/7
  • US Dollar Index 100.07 +.38%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,788.0 +.79%
  • Bitcoin/USD 97,126.5 +3.5%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 184.0 +.3%
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.73 -.78%
  • Yield Curve(2s/10s) 47.5 -2.25 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 4.31% +5.0 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $6.661 Trillion -.27%
  • Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $3.329 Billion +13.5%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 56.4 +.6%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 282.6 -1.1%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 110.0 -1.0 basis point
  • UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 21.5 -1.4%
  • China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 60.6 -2.1%
  • Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 181.9 -.4%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 104.6 +1.7%
  • South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 30.4 -6.1%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 23.69 -.57%
  • China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 119.7 -1.5%
  • Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +3.9% unch.
  • Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +3.4% unch.
  • US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +3.0% unch.
  • CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +3.2% 
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.61% +7.0 basis points: CPI YoY +2.34% -1.0 basis point
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.03% -20.0 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.27 unch.
  • Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread -3.75 basis points -5.0 basis points
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -24.25 -.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.75 unch.
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 64.2 -3.1%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 294.0 +4.6
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 287.0 +33.0
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 69.4 -2.1%
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 163.2 -2.9%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 197.7 +2.2%
  • MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 157.0 +1.0 basis point
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 643.0 unch.
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS .75 unch.
  • M2 Money Supply YoY % Change +4.1% unch.
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding $1,403.3B +.2%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 226,000 +2.5%
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.3% +10.0 basis points
  • Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 59.0 -4.6%
  • Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 6.82% -8.0 basis points
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 223,700 -4.2%
  • Weekly Retail Sales +6.7% -30.0 basis points
  • OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY +8.0% -2.0 percentage points
  • Box Office Weekly Gross $197.6M -8.3%
  • Nationwide Gas $3.18/gallon +.02/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 1,411.0 +2.8%
  • Drewry World Container Freight Index $2,091.4/40 ft Box -3.1%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,121.1 +.91%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 40.0 +23.1%
  • Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 70.3 +6.9%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 268,694 -1.1%
  • TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,743,730 +24.6%
Best Performing Style
  • Mid-Cap Growth +4.1%
Worst Performing Style
  • Large-Cap Value +2.5%
Leading Sectors
  • Education +15.0%
  • Software +8.4%
  • Networking +7.2%
  • Airlines +7.2%
  • Construction +5.4%
Lagging Sectors
  • Healthcare Providers +.7%
  • Foods -.2%
  • Energy -.2%
  • Telecom -.5%
  • Gold & Silver -3.6%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (83)
  • CPS, ADPT, PONY, TRUP, PRDO, IRTC, FLGT, DUOL, RGTI, ASTS, SMMT, BTSG, DXCM, LQDA, IONQ, CART, EXAS, BJRI, FIVE, SVV, HIMS, EH, SAIA, MBX, PSIX, TEX, SNCY, PRLB, ARCB, ATEC, W, SKWD, BZH, DAL, FTDR, SPOT, NCLH, ATI, LAUR, QXO, MAZE, BEN, SHAK, UPST, XHR, GTX, ATGE, PINS, CNI, KEX, CRS, NVO, BHVN, RBLX, LMB, AAL, PLMR, IDCC, HSAI, SNDR, META, CUBE, SWK, HUT, MPWR, CPT, URI, LRN, RXST, JBGS, GEHC, EA, ORCL, BPMC, AMH, OLN, DRS, ITT, EQNR, MRX, NFG, HLN, TROW, TSM, CP, ALKS, H and CSTM
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (25)
  • MGA, MHK, OHI, ABR, SM, TTWO, HR, GLNG, PRO, ROKU, HUN, HOLX, TEAM, MSI, GDDY, TDS, WLK, CRTO, WK, LMAT, CYTK, SEM, XYZ and TREE
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change


Stocks Substantially Higher into Final Hour on US Economic Data, US Global Trade Deal Hopes, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Tech/Transport Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.0 +.12% 
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.32% +10.0 basis points
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.31% +2.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 96.4 USD/Metric Tonne +.7%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 33.1 euros/megawatt-hour +2.9%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -12.9 unch.
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -4.2 +11.7 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 22.6 +1.9 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(357 of 500 reporting) +13.3% -.8 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 275.82 +.24:  Growth Rate +11.9% +.1 percentage point, P/E 20.7 +.3
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.38% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +29.1% -3.4 percentage points
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 423.82 +1.48: Growth Rate +22.6% +.5 percentage point, P/E 30.4 +.3
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.16 +6.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.42 +45.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 10.7 unch.
  • US Yield Curve 48.0 basis points (2s/10s) -4.75 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +1.1% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 45.7% -3.9 percentage points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.61% unch.: CPI YoY +2.34% unch.
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.04 -13.0 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.28 +3.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for June 18th FOMC meeting: 65.8% (+24.0 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for July 30th meeting: 55.6%(+11.2 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +390 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +146 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +190 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my utility/tech/consumer discretionary/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (BNTX)/-2.27
  • (CMI)/4.91
  • (FRPT)/.10
  • (HSIC)/1.11
  • (ON)/.50
  • (TSN)/.83
  • (ZBH)/1.77
After the Close: 
  • (BRBR)/.53
  • (BWXT)/.76
  • (CE)/.38
  • (CLX)/1.55
  • (FANG)/4.18
  • (ETD)/.46
  • (F)/.00
  • (FN)/2.50
  • (HIMS)/.12
  • (IAC)/-.65
  • (MAT)/-.10
  • (PLTR)/.13
  • (PLYA)/.36
  • (TDW)/.63
  • (VRTX)/4.25
  • (VNO)/.54
  • (WMB)/.57
  • (BCC)/1.31
Economic Releases

9:45 am EST

  • Final S&P Global US Composite PMI reading for April.

10:00 am EST

  • The ISM Services Index for April is estimated to fall to 50.2 versus 50.8 in March. 

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The 3Y T-Note auction, Morgan Stanley Tech/Media/Telecom Conference, Assoc. for Research in Vision/Ophthalmology Meeting, Oppenheimer Industrial Growth Conference, (HUBB) annual meeting, (UBER) annual meeting, (LLY) annual meeting, (NVR) annual meeting and the Barclays Select Franchise Conference could also impact global trading on Monday.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST