Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +9.5% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 15.5 -7.1
• 8 Sectors Declining, 3 Sectors Rising
• 40.9% of Issues Advancing, 56.7% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .70 -49.3%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$152.3M
  
• 18 New 52-Week Highs, 56 New Lows
• 38.8% (-1.2%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 54.4 -6.6

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 71.5 +2.4%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 241.3 +.8%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 21,208.3 +.9%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 68.0 (GREED) -1.0
• 1-Day Vix 14.5 -19.7%
  
• Vix 20.1 -3.7%
  
• Total Put/Call .79 -10.2%

Thursday Watch

Around X:

• @ElonMusk

• DOGE's Antonio Gracias Says Illegal Migrants Have Voted in U.S. Elections. "We have found [illegal migrants] who actually voted ... We already had three arrests in Florida and one indictment ... My opinion is that this is the tip of the iceberg." (video)
• I’m not just dancing all day, ok. (video)

• @ZeroHedge

• *HOUSE REPUBLICANS RELEASE TAX BILL TEXT WITH LARGER SALT CAP.
• TRUMP SAYS HE'S CONSIDERING BRINGING FANNIE, FREDDIE PUBLIC.
• USDA Approves Nebraska's Banning Soda And Energy Drinks From Food Stamps.
• MAGA Think Tank Staffing Trump 2.0: America First Policy Institute.
• Which deadly virus are you weaponizing this time.
• Masked NIH Employees Storm Out Of Meeting After Director Bhattacharya Questions Agency's Role In COVID-19 Origins.
  
• Hello @NIHDirector_Jay @RobertKennedyJr can we finally get the unredacted covid emails. The real scandal is in what was censored. 
• Ugly Auction Triggers Bond Bloodbath; Big-Tech & Black Gold Dumped As Bitcoin & Bullion Jump.

• @MarioNawful

• SEC. RUBIO: JUST 12 CENTS OF EACH AID DOLLAR REACHED RECIPIENT—THE REST FED FOREIGN INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX. "But these reforms had to happen at USAID. Twelve cents of every dollar was reaching the recipient. That means that in order for us to get, we had to spend all this southern money supporting this foreign aid industrial complex. We're gonna find more efficient ways to deliver aid to people directly, and it's gonna be part of a holistic approach to our foreign policy." (video)
• FDA SLAPS STRONGER HEART WARNINGS ON COVID SHOTS FOR YOUNG MEN. The FDA just expanded heart inflammation warnings on Pfizer and Moderna’s COVID-19 vaccines — specifically targeting males 16–25. The agency cited persistent heart abnormalities in follow-up studies and new data showing 8 cases of myocarditis per million doses. These new labels follow earlier alerts for teens and young adults. The CDC still says the benefits outweigh the risks, but the FDA’s move coincides with stricter approval rules for future boosters under age 65. Senate hearings are also probing whether feds downplayed early myocarditis data. 
• CHINA SLAMS TRUMP'S GOLDEN DOME, WARNS OF SPACE ARMS RACE. Beijing is fuming over Trump’s orbiting missile shield. China’s Foreign Ministry called the $175B Golden Dome plan a global destabilizer, accusing the U.S. of chasing “absolute security” at the cost of strategic balance. “Gravely concerned,” Beijing urged Washington to kill the project before it militarizes space. Trump fired back Tuesday, announcing the system will be “fully operational” within three years and able to intercept threats from space or anywhere on Earth. Four U.S. states and Canada are already enlisted. 
• COLUMBIA GRADUATION ERUPTS AS PROTESTERS TORCH DIPLOMAS AND CLASH WITH COPS. What was meant to be a celebration of achievement turned into chaos at Columbia University’s graduation as pro-Palestinian protesters burned diplomas, booed speakers, and demanded the release of former student Mahmoud Khalil, now facing deportation for alleged ties to Hamas. President Claire Shipman was shouted down mid-speech, while police made arrests outside. With tightened campus security and federal pressure, tensions boiled over yet again. But Shipman’s remarks honoring Khalil shocked even some supporters, leaving parents and graduates stunned by the spectacle. 
• TRUMP PLAYS “WHITE GENOCIDE” CLIPS—SA DELEGATION DOESN'T EVEN LOOK. Trump hits play in the Oval Office—videos of calls for “white genocide” in South Africa roll on screen... …and the South African delegation? Stone-faced. Barely a glance. No outrage. No denial. Just silence. Already seen it? Been there themselves? Or too embarrassed to face it? And Trump? He didn’t just talk about the issue—he made them watch it. (video)
• THE ATLANTIC GOES FULL MASK-OFF ON ELON. The Atlantic just unloaded 6,000+ words on Elon—called "The Decline and Fall of Elon Musk." It’s all in there: anonymous backroom chatter, digs at his wardrobe, whispers from "unnamed officials," and a barely concealed sigh of relief that the world’s richest man didn’t bulldoze the federal machine. He challenged sacred cows, slashed red tape, and asked hard questions D.C. didn’t want to answer. Now the old guard is crowing that the system held, because they have to. This isn’t about Elon. It’s about the machine defending itself.
  

• @TheTranscript

• Snowflake double beat + raises FY product revenue guidance. (pic)

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.0% to -.25% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 82.25 +3.25 basis points. 
• China Sovereign CDS 55.0 +2.5 basis points.
• China Iron Ore Spot 99.4 USD/Metric Tonne -.4%.
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.73 +.02%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.1 +.03%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 69.5 -.5%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.59% -1.0 basis point.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.7 -.4%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.57%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.11%. 
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.12%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by consumer discretionary and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Dropping Substantially into Final Hour on "Big, Beautiful Bill" Passage Wrangling, Surging Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Jitters, Transport/Financial Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.1 +.2% 
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.59% +10.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.34% +1.0 basis point

• China Iron Ore Spot 99.7 USD/Metric Tonne -.11%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 36.6 euros/megawatt-hour -1.0%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -8.0 +1.5 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 18.9 +1.5 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 28.8 +.5
  
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(469 of 500 reporting) +11.2% -.2 percentage point
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 275.81 -.05:  Growth Rate +11.8% unch., P/E 21.5 unch.
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.31% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +29.1% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 425.80 +.26: Growth Rate +23.1% unch., P/E 32.2 +.3
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .40 +2.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.52 +6.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 6.1 -.7
• US Yield Curve 57.75 basis points (2s/10s) +7.0 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.4% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 37.0% -1.6 percentage points

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.60% unch.: CPI YoY +2.40% +2.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.97 +5.0 basis points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.37 +1.0 basis point
• Highest target rate probability for July 30th FOMC meeting: 71.2% (unch.) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 17th meeting: 50.5%(-1.6 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -347 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -22 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +47 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my industrial/financial/technology/consumer discretionary/utility sector longs 
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -2.4%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy -3.1% 2) Airlines -3.0% 3) Healthcare Providers -2.6%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• CLDX, HP, IGT, HUT, MTD, HHH, TPG, TEM, TTWO, BIDU, KHC, QBTS, JHX, TGT, LEGN, UNH, PSY, EFX, PANW, TRU, FLNG, MRNA, QUBT, CTRI, MBX, NMRK, RDDT, AES, SG, QXO, CRI, GTX, VFC and WIX

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) XME 2) RILY 3) WRD 4) IYR 5) CARR

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) WOLF 2) FICO 3) VFC 4) IOVA 5) VSAT

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) IYW  2) KRE 3) XLV 4) ARKK 5) ITB

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -1.2%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1)  Gold & Silver +1.1% 2) Electric Vehicles +.6% 3) Social Media +.4%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• GOOS, WRD, CRWV, DY, XPEV, SMLR, HSAI, ACLX, NPCE, BULL, MIR, ZK, GOOG and XYF

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) CMA 2) LAES 3) RILY 4) NVTS 5) URGN

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) GOOS 2) WB 3) IDN 4) EVLV 5) CFSB

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) BAI 2) XLP 3) XBI 4) SOXX 5) IGM

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (AAP)/-.82
• (ADI)/1.70
• (BJ)/.92
• (RL)/2.04
• (TD)/1.26
• (WSM)/1.76
  

After the Close:

• (ADSK)/2.15
• (CPRT)/.42
• (DECK)/.60
• (INTU)/10.93
• (LGF/A)/.42
• (ROST)/1.44
• (WDAY)/2.01
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for April is estimated to fall to -.25 versus -.03 in March.
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated to rise to 230K versus 229K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims is estimated to rise to 1883K versus 1881K prior.
  

9:45 am EST

• S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI for May is estimated to fall to 49.9 versus 50.2 in April.
• S&P Global US Services PMI for May is estimated to rise to 51.0 versus 50.8 in April.
• S&P Global US Composite PMI for May is estimated to fall to 50.3 versus 50.6 in April.
  

10:00 am EST

• Existing Home Sales for April is estimated to rise to 4.1M versus 4.02M in March.
• 11:00 am EST
• Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity for May is estimated to fall to -5.0 versus -4.0 in April

Upcoming Splits

• (FAST) 2-for-1

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Williams speaking, 10Y Tips auction, weekly Fed balance sheet report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, American Society of Clinical Oncology Meeting, B. Riley Institutional Investor Conference, BNP Paribas Animal Health Day, (THC) annual meeting, (NEE) annual meeting, (STX) analyst meeting, (PWR) annual meeting, (HD) annual meeting, (VRSN) annual meeting, (WING) annual meeting, (VZ) annual meeting, (SCHW) annual meeting, (NOW) annual meeting, (DD) annual meeting, (CAKE) annual meeting, (CART) annual meeting, (PODD) annual meeting, (ONON) annual meeting and the Wolfe Research Transport/Industrials Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST