Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -4.7% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 15.7 +.4
• 8 Sectors Declining, 3 Sectors Rising
• 27.0% of Issues Advancing, 71.2% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .73 -29.8%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$100.0M
  
• 50 New 52-Week Highs, 9 New Lows
• 40.6% (-4.5%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 57.5 -1.9

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 70.6 +2.7%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 241.9 +.14%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 21,223.3 +.43%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 66.0 (GREED) unch.
• 1-Day Vix 15.7 +19.7%
  
• Vix 19.0 +.4%
  
• Total Put/Call .73 -17.1%

Wednesday Watch

Around X:

• @ElonMusk

• Super Heavy is designed to be a fully and rapidly reusable rocket, eventually bringing aircraft-like operations to the world of launch. (video)

• @ZeroHedge

• Trump Must Avoid These 3 'Civilization Killers' When Tackling The National Debt.
• Benz & Tucker: Inside America's Hidden Power Network: NGOs, The CIA, And The Rise Of The Blob. 
• US Has 500 Troops In Taiwan In Major Challenge To China.
• Overnight the world's largest maker of EVs, China's BYD (it surpassed Tesla last year) unleashed a price war nuke, cutting prices by up to 34%. Other Chinese automakers immediately followed. This will send a deflationary shockwave and spark major trade war escalation by Europe.
• Work Ethic Declining Because "Snowflakes" Don't Face Consequences, Mike Rowe Says. 
• Jake Tapper is just now realizing that his party is the party of hate and division. 
• *FHFA HEAD PULTE: POWELL SHOULD LOWER INTEREST RATES NOW.
• Goldman Unexpectedly Finds Signs Of Life In Working-Poor Consumer.
• TRUMP SAYS HE'S 'WORKING' ON TAKING FANNIE, FREDDIE PUBLIC. TRUMP: US WILL KEEP IMPLICIT GUARANTEES FOR FANNIE, FREDDIE.
• Rogan & Rodgers Unleash Big Pharma's Worst Nightmare...
• The Invisible Leash. 
• Trump Threatens To Withhold "Large Scale" Federal Funding From California After Trans Athlete Destroys Biological Females.
• The Rise And Fall Of The West's Propaganda Regime.
• Tariff-Delays, Tokyo-Drift, & Terrific-Data Spark Buying Panic In Stocks, Bonds, & Bitcoin.
  

• @MarioNawful

• EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW: “PORNHUB WASN’T A WEBSITE — IT WAS A CRIME SCENE”. @LailaMickelwait spent 5 years investigating Pornhub. What she discovered was beyond shocking, A story of a 15-year-old girl, missing for a year, reportedly found in 58 rape videos on the website. A 12-year-old boy, reportedly drugged and abused, with claims that his abuse was monetized and uploaded repeatedly. The reported case of Serena Flaites, who alleges she was 13 when her coerced videos went viral, claiming Pornhub required her to prove she was underage before considering removal. 91% of Pornhub’s content was removed.
• CHAIR MIRAN: THIS IS THE BIGGEST CONSUMER CONFIDENCE JUMP SINCE MARCH 2021. Chairman, Council of Economic Advisers, Steve Miran: “You know, the consumer confidence data this morning were really great. There’s no other way to put it. It was the biggest jump since March of 2021. Very substantial improvement in consumer confidence. 
• ELON: STARSHIP MADE IT TO THE SCHEDULED SHIP ENGINE CUTOFF WITH LOTS OF GOOD DATA. “Starship made it to the scheduled ship engine cutoff, so big improvement over last flight! Also, no significant loss of heat shield tiles during ascent. Leaks caused loss of main tank pressure during the coast and re-entry phase. Lot of good data to review. Launch cadence for next 3 flights will be faster, at approximately 1 every 3 to 4 weeks.” 
• DAVID SACKS: THE ROBOTS ARE COMING. "The robots are coming. We’re seeing prototypes from a number of companies. Tesla’s Optimus can already fold laundry. Within five years, it’s possible everyone could own a robot. This is a technology that’s definitely coming." (video)
• AI HUNGER GROWS: CALIFORNIA’S POWER GRID IS GETTING ABSOLUTELY COOKED. PG&E, California's largest electric utility, says data center requests for electricity jumped 40%, and these aren’t your grandma’s server farms. Last year, companies wanted 50 to 100 megawatts per site. Now they’re asking for 500 to 1,000 megawatts. That’s like powering a whole city just to teach ChatGPT how to write better essays than you. New AI megacenters are ditching Silicon Valley and heading inland to cheaper spots like Fresno, because apparently the robots don’t care about beachfront views. PG&E’s problem? Everyone wants to plug in right now, and there aren’t enough parts or patience to go around. 
• TRUMP: ALASKA CAN BE OUR ECONOMIC MIRACLE… IF LEADERS STEP UP. “Nobody has done more for Alaska than your favorite president, Donald J. Trump. However, the Biden-Harris administration terminated much of our good, job-producing product. I am working very hard to gain it all back (and actually, much more), but need the support of your political leaders to make this happen. Without their commitment, it won’t happen. With it, Alaska will become the economic and job-producing miracle of our country!”
  

• @TheTranscript

• Box CEO: "We achieved robust first-quarter results.." $BOX: +11% AH.
• Okta CEO: "Okta had a solid start to FY26 highlighted by record operating profit and another quarter of robust free cash flow" $OKTA: -11% AH.
  

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.25% to +1.25% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 78.5 -1.75 basis points. 
• China Sovereign CDS 51.0 -1.0 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 96.3 USD/Metric Tonne +.2%.
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.69 -.02%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.0 -.11%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 68.8 +.05%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.46% +2.0 basis points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.7 +.05%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.02%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.01%. 
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.03%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising Substantially into Final Hour on US-Global Trade Deal Optimism, US Consumer Confidence Surge, Falling Long-Term Rates, Transport/Tech Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.08 -.11% 
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.43% -8.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.30% -3.0 basis points

• China Iron Ore Spot 95.85 USD/Metric Tonne -.23%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 37.0 euros/megawatt-hour -.7%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 13.2 +7.2 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 14.7 +2.2 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 31.5 +.6 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(479 of 500 reporting) +11.3% unch.
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 276.17 +.29:  Growth Rate +12.0% +.2 percentage point, P/E 21.4 +.4
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.29% -1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +29.1% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 426.49 +.70: Growth Rate +23.3% +.2 percentage point, P/E 32.2 +.6
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .13 -14.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.79 +33.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 6.0 +.5
• US Yield Curve 45.5 basis points (2s/10s) -6.0 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.2% -.2 percentage point
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 39.7% +2.7 percentage points

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.60% unch.: CPI YoY +2.40% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.92 -6.0 basis points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.34 -1.0 basis point
• Highest target rate probability for July 30th FOMC meeting: 74.9% (unch.) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 17th meeting: 49.8%(+2.1 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +630 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -11 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +82 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my industrial/consumer discretionary/utility/tech/financial sector longs 
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +2.5%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1)  Airlines +4.5% 2) Semis +3.6% 3) Alt Energy +3.5%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• MTAL, RDW, WRD, PONY, CRWV, SMR, HOLX, SOUN, LEU, VFC, RKLB, DOMO, MARA, LUNR, SERV, OKLO, MCS, NEXN, VG, NVMI, PCT, SYM, LASR, SHAK, DAVA, OPFI, CLSK, AMSC, ELF, LNW, RRR, FLR, INFA, PGY, MSM, GOOS, DECK, SHYF, CTRI, PSIX, BULL, AI, OSCR, CUK, HLIO, LTBR, CBLL, GME, TIC, ENS, ONTO, ARQQ, ANF, ROST, CSGS, POWL, QGEN, AAL, DXYZ, GRAL, MLNK, IMCR, CCOI, LHX, GRAL, DXYZ, PBI, CVGW, TECK, ACHR, PSFE, GLNG, CMP, LINC, ACHR, ODD, BWLP, HURN, PHR, LQDA, ARQQ and QSR

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) NVTS 2) XLC 3) DJT 4) PDD 5) ITB

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) HOLX 2) WRD 3) SMR 4) NVTS 5) BFLY

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLI 2) MAGS 3) SHLD 4) KIE 5) XHB

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (ANF)/1.37
• (BMO)/1.81
• (DKS)/4.32
• (M)/.15
• (MNRO)/.03
• (PLAB)/.48
  

After the Close: 

• (A)/1.26
• (AI)/-.20
• (ELF)/.72
• (HPQ)/.80
• (NTNX)/.38
• (NDSN)/2.36
• (NVDA)/.73
• (CRM)/2.55
• (S)/.02
• (SNPS)/3.40
• (VEEV)/1.74
  

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

• Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for May is estimated to rise to -9.0 versus -13.0 in April.
•  
  

10:30 am EST

• Dallas Fed Services Activity Index for May.

2:00 pm EST

• May 7 FOMC Meeting Minutes.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Kashkari speaking, Fed's Williams speaking, Fed's Barkin speaking, 5Y T-Note auction, OPEC meeting, weekly US retail sales reports, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, weekly API crude oil stock report, Deutsche Bank Financial Services Conference, Cowen TMT Conference, Jefferies Software/Internet Conference, BofA Power/Utilities/Alt Energy Conference, Bernstein Strategic Decisions Conference, (SEE) annual meeting, (META) annual meeting, (JNPR) annual meeting, (CVX) annual meeting, (XOM) annual meeting, (HWM) annual meeting, (RCL) annual meeting and the Stifel Jaws/Paws Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +22.3% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 15.3 -.2
• 0 Sectors Declining, 11 Sectors Rising
• 85.0% of Issues Advancing, 13.7% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.46 +55.0%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$376.1M
  
• 81 New 52-Week Highs, 9 New Lows
• 40.8% (+7.2%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 59.4 +5.0

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 69.4 -.1%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 240.7 +.7%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 21,111.3 +.7%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 66.0 (GREED) +3.0
• 1-Day Vix 10.4 -52.3%
  
• Vix 19.5 -5.4%
  
• Total Put/Call .80 -29.8%