Evening Headlines

Around X:

• @Business

• Some EU carmakers and capitals are pushing for an agreement with Washington that would allow for tariff relief in return for increasing investments in the US.
• China's share of US imports fell to just 7% in May, the lowest since 2001 and down from a recent high of ~15% last year. This is part of a longer trend that started with Trump's first-term trade war in 2018, when China's share was 21%+. (graph)
• China is ready to cooperate with France in industries such as nuclear power, aviation, AI, green energy and biotechnology, Foreign Minister Wang Yi said.
• India has threatened retaliatory tariffs on US goods after Washington hiked auto duties, signaling a tougher stance as trade talks continue.
• A comprehensive US-India trade deal could supercharge South Asian nation’s exports and manufacturing, laying the foundation for long-term growth, Bloomberg Economics says.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy held a phone call with Donald Trump, his chief adviser confirmed, as the Ukrainian leader sought to press Washington to resume key weapons deliveries. 
• Airlines across Europe have canceled hundreds of flights on the second day of an air traffic controllers’ strike in France that’s causing chaos just as the busiest travel season of the year gets underway. 
• Developers of renewable energy are rushing to lock in German projects as Berlin’s tone on the green transition shifts, sparking worries that strong government support may start to dwindle. 
• Rising US-Colombia tensions suggest Donald Trump’s administration is upping the pressure on Gustavo Petro ahead of a decision on the Andean nation’s status in the fight against illegal drugs.
• OPEC+ is considering speeding up its oil production revival even further, and will discuss a hike of more than 411,000 barrels a day for August at a meeting on Saturday. 
• The US plans to restrict shipments of AI chips from the likes of Nvidia to Malaysia and Thailand, part of an effort to crack down on suspected semiconductor smuggling into China.  

• @Zerohedge 

• US Patriotism Among Democrats Crashes As Marxist Demands Grow Louder.
• US-Iran Nuclear Talks To Restart In Oslo Next Week - Trump Willing To Talk Directly. 
• The New MAGA Turf War Over National Intelligence.
• July The Fourth In 12 Charts: Food, Fireworks, Travel, & More.
• Reminder that if you are fully vaccinated and up to date on boosters, you are allowed to celebrate the Fourth of July. Those vaccinated are even permitted to have a backyard barbecue, so long as the number of guests is five or less. Thank you for your attention to this matter. (video)
• The (Falling) Price Of A July 4th Cookout.
• Update: Silence Broken, By Broken Newspaper. The @washingtonpost purports to be a paper focused on DC agencies and politics but it somehow can't yet bring itself to report on itself and it's own leading role in the Russian Collusion Hoax. So it ran @AP copy from days ago.
• "A Highly Kinetic Period" - Goldman's Hedge Fund Honcho Reflects On H1... & What Lies Ahead. 
• Hamas says ready to start Gaza ceasefire talks 'immediately'. 
• Facebook Is Still The Most Important Social News Network. 

• @MarioNawful

• BREAKING: 50K ANCIENT BITCOINS JUST MOVED. A jaw-dropping 50,000 BTC, each over 10 years old, was moved today in a single day, smashing the previous record of 3,700 BTC. These aren’t just any coins. Many are tied to early miner block rewards from Bitcoin’s infancy, waking up after sitting untouched for a decade. The move has traders buzzing about whether a whale is cashing out or something bigger is brewing in crypto’s deep waters.

• @LeadingReport

• BREAKING: Every U.S. child will receive a $1,000 S&P 500 starter account at birth once President Trump signs the ‘BBB.’

• @nicksortor

• BREAKING: 23 girls are now MISSING from Christian summer Camp Mystic in Hunt, TX after the area was INUNDATED with flooding, per Lt. Gov. Patrick. The deathtoll is now 13 and rising, with more rain on the way. PLEASE pray for the missing girls and their families. (video)

• @WallStreetApes

• Footage from the Pride event in New York City before the shooting. Look at the ground. Seriously, the entire area is completely trashed. Just to remind everyone, this is the same liberal crowd who lectures everyone 24/7 about the environment. (video)
• When you actually read the Big Beautiful Bill “Cuts to Medicaid” you’ll realize every Democrat and mainstream media outlet is lying through their teeth. No American would ever be against any of this, here are the facts. “Here is just the first page of the cuts: (video)

• @RodDMartin

• TRUMP WINS FOR SENIORS: The One Big Beautiful Bill just SLASHED taxes on Social Security benefits — by nearly 90%. More than 51 million Americans will keep MOST of what they earned. Here’s how Trump did it — and what’s coming next. (thread)

• @bennyjohnson

• General Mike Flynn exposes how Mike Pence and Paul Ryan were heavily involved in a cabal to take down President Trump from inside the Republican party: "Mike Pence and Paul Ryan wanted Trump out. They had a plan for when Trump steps down, they would step in." (video)

• @Rasmussen_Poll

• An Enormous Scandal, Dwarfing Watergate & The Pentagon Papers CIA 1 of 8. (pic)

• @charliekirk11

• Here's a list of the wins in the One Big Beautiful BIll. Don't be allergic to winning. Take the Ws. (pic)

Stocks Rising into Close on US-Global Trade Deal Optimism, US Economic Data, Technical Buying, Tech/Financial Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.2 +.06%
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.33% +6.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.35% +2.0 basis points

• China Iron Ore Spot 96.9 USD/Metric Tonne +.5%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 33.6 euros/megawatt-hour +.09%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -2.6 +6.4 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 32.4 +5.3 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 27.5 -.3 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(18 of 500 reporting) +1.7% unch.
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 280.70 +.02:  Growth Rate +10.4% unch., P/E 22.2 +.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.43% -9.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 446.48 +.26: Growth Rate +19.6% +.1 percentage point, P/E 33.2 unch.
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .53 +5.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.56 +10.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 4.7 +.2
• US Yield Curve 46.0 basis points (2s/10s) -3.75 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.6% +.1 percentage point
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 45.7% +.8 percentage points

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.68% unch.: CPI YoY +2.64% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.62 +3.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.34 +1.0 basis point
• Highest target rate probability for Sept. 17th FOMC meeting: 68.1% (-3.8 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Oct. 29th meeting: 43.6%(+15.2 percentage point) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Polymarket:

• US-EU Trade Agreement by July 9th 36.0% +5.0 percentage points
• Reconciliation Bill Passed by July 4th 94.0% +20.0 percentage points

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +370 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -117 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +80 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my utility/industrial/tech/financial/consumer discretionary sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Thursday Watch

Around X:

• @Business

• Japanese carmakers have largely absorbed the cost of Trump’s tariffs on auto imports, a move that may undermine the Asian nation’s negotiating power.
• Campaigning for Japan’s upper house election starts Thursday with the fate of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and his minority government hanging in the balance .
• Conservative hardliners’ resistance to Donald Trump's massive tax and spending package began to soften late Wednesday as the president and his allies worked to win them over. 
• Even if the run-up to this month’s deadline for US trade deals weighs on stocks, bargain hunters will step in to stem losses, the latest Markets Pulse survey showed.
• Software company Datadog will be added to the S&P 500 index next week, replacing Juniper Networks after its recent acquisition by HPE.
• Wall Street dealers — until recently expecting US government debt auction sizes to resume growing next year — are going back to the drawing board after comments by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent this week.
• Scoop: OpenAI and Oracle inked an unprecedented cloud deal for 4.5GW of data center capacity. That’s enough power for millions of homes. 
• Here’s the latest news and analysis on the oil market.
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.
• Here's what you need to know to start your day
  .

• @ZeroHedge 

• Thiel Joins Luckey & Lonsdale To Launch New Bank Aimed At Filling SVB Void For Stablecoins, AI, Defense & Advanced Manufacturing.
• What's Next For CDC's Remade Vaccine Advisory Committee? 
• Democrats, Animated By Loathing Of Trump, Are Driving Their Party To Self-Destruction. 
• Fiji Says Chinese Military Base, Missiles Not Welcome In Pacific.
• Moderna To Ask For Clearance For Combination COVID-Influenza Vaccine.
• 'Bad News Is Good News' - Stocks, Oil, Bitcoin, & Precious Metals Surge As US Macro Melts Down. 

• @CNBC 

• Thursday’s big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.
• Clear CEO Caryn Seidman Becker on future of identity verification technology in daily life.
• Bank of America says autonomous cars are having their 'ChatGPT' moment. How to play it.  

• @WSJ 

• From @WSJopinion: Reflexively delegitimizing every Trump action isn’t helpful and isn’t journalism. It’s also not democratic, writes Holman Jenkins.

• @FoxNews

• Diddy's defense team took a victory lap after the rapper was acquitted of RICO and sex trafficking charges with attorney Nicole Westmoreland declaring, "Today is a major win." (video)
• Biden-appointed judge halts Trump HHS overhaul after Democrat-led lawsuit.
• Americans at July 4th celebrations warned of lone wolf terrorist threat.
• “The Democrats are having a problem.” Former Congressman @jasoninthehouse warns that @ZohranKMamdani's primary victory in New York City is evidence that the Democratic Party is lurching far to the left, putting so-called "moderates" at risk. (video)

• @GatewayPundit

• House Republicans Plan 9:30 Vote – Rules Vote to Set Up Debate on the Big Beautiful Bill.
• ABLECHILD: National Law Needed to Determine if Psychiatric Drugs are Involved in Shootings.
• Get Woke, Go Broke: Jaguar Sales Plunge Amid Woke Rebrand.
• Trump Lifts Sanctions on Syria and Proposes Integrating the Country Into the Abraham Accords to Strengthen Alliances in the Middle East. 
• Convicted Sex Offender Anthony Weiner, AKA, ‘Carlos Danger’ Loses New York City Council Race. 
• Keep an eye on Congress where members are still fighting this line item by line item & it’s obvious they will try bring back some of these grants at the last minute or give more significant budgets. Look for orgs like USIP, Wilson Center, NED, NDI, ADF, IRI, IAF & so on. Some of these are focussed on regime change… 
• BREAKING EXCLUSIVE: Jim Comey’s Daughter Maurene at DOJ Sees P. Diddy Not Charged with Sex Trafficking.

• @TheTranscript 

• $GS: Consensus expects Q2 25 margins will remain near all-time highs. (graph)

• @unusual_whales

• Microsoft, $MSFT, has requested 6,327 H-1B visas, mostly from India, in Washington, per Amanda Goodall. That same month, it laid off 2,300 workers in the state.

• @VigilantFox

• REPORT: A leaked internal memo has blown the lid off Big Pharma’s $2 million plot to force RFK Jr. out as HHS Secretary. The document, from the Biotechnology Innovation Organization (BIO), reveals a brazen plan to spend half its entire cash reserve lobbying Congress to remove Kennedy, whose push for real oversight threatens their business model. It details a sinister scheme to dodge public debate while co-opting conservative influencers and deploying Dr. Mehmet Oz as a supposed “neutral” health expert to sabotage MAHA. This isn’t about science or safety. It’s about narrative control—a psychological warfare campaign designed to scare lawmakers and the public into rejecting reform. (video)

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 72.75 -.75 basis point. 
• China Sovereign CDS 49.25 -1.0 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 95.1 USD/Metric Tonne -.05%.
• Polymarket: US-EU Trade Agreement by July 9th 31.0% -6.0 percentage points. 
• Polymarket:  Reconciliation Bill Passed by July 4th 74.0% +14.0 percentage points

• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 9.05 +.07%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.17 -.13%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 74.5 +.2%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.26% -2.0 basis points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.1 -.6%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.06%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.01%. 
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.01%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on US-Global Trade Deal Optimism, Fed Rate-Cut Hopes, Technical Buying, Tech/Commodity Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.23 +.11%
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.29% +5.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.33% +1.0 basis point

• China Iron Ore Spot 95.6 USD/Metric Tonne +.5%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 33.6 euros/megawatt-hour -.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -9.0 -7.6 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 27.1 -1.2 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 27.8 +.6 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(18 of 500 reporting) +1.7% -.5 percentage point
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 280.68 +.11:  Growth Rate +10.4% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.1 unch.
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.52% +10.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 446.22 +.19: Growth Rate +19.5% +.1 percentage point, P/E 33.2 +.4
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .48 +1.0 basis point
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.46 -7.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 4.5 +.1
• US Yield Curve 49.75 basis points (2s/10s) +2.75 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.5% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 44.9% -3.2 percentage points

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.68% unch.: CPI YoY +2.64% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.59 +3.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.31 +1.0 basis point
• Highest target rate probability for Sept. 17th FOMC meeting: 72.3% (-.9 percentage point) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Oct. 29th meeting: 55.1%(-.8 percentage point) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Polymarket:

• US-EU Trade Agreement by July 9th 34.0% -3.0 percentage points
• Reconciliation Bill Passed by July 4th 60.0% unch.

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +3 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -135 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +130 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my industrial/tech/financial/consumer discretionary sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

 Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth +.1%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Healthcare Providers -5.5% 2) Insurance -2.0% 3) Digital Health -1.4%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• WCN, ADBE, LINC, NWG, ELV, MESO, BV, OSCR, MOH and CNC

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) CNC 2) XLB 3) RIG 4) NXT 5) OSCR

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) CNC 2) ELV 3) MOH 4) OSCR 5) BV

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) KRE 2) MAGS 3) IGV 4) VDE 5) XOP

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +1.3%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy +4.2% 2) Steel +2.7% 3) Computer Hardware +2.1%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• SBET, METC, BMNR, GBX, DQ, HCC, AVXL, CSIQ, HUT, VRNT, BTDR, AMR, MARA, CNR, BEAM, BTU, BULL, JKS, CLSK, DNA, RGTI, PSIX, NTLA, AMSC, JACK, RARE, IONS, GOOS, PHH, HOOD, FSLR, W, GRRR, PRM, ALB, AEVA, CLB, ENVX, RIOT, ARCT, CRNC, SYM, UPST, GOGO, GLXY, CRSP, SOUN, CAMT, GLXY, AX, MT, WT, AEHR, SQM, PCT, TSLA, NVGS, AI, AES, SN, JOBY, RDDT, TRN, TYRA, ELVN, STX, MBLY, VC, PAHC, WMG, NKE, VALE, RH, RCI, CUBI, AAOI, ONON, MBLY, AN, PWP, WS, BHP, FCX, SBLK, TX, PZZA, FTK and NVMI

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) CNC 2) SBLK 3) FHN 4) ONON 5) XLB

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) VRNT 2) GBX 3) BBAI 4) LMB 5) BORR

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLF 2) XLV 3) SMH 4) ITB 5) XRT

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume