Stocks Modestly Higher into Final Hour on Falling Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Technical Buying, Tech/Retail Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.8 +.15%
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.37% -5.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.32% -1.0 basis point

• China Iron Ore Spot 103.6 USD/Metric Tonne +.04%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 34.4 euros/megawatt-hour -2.9%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 9.5 -3.1 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 33.1 -1.3 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 20.0 -.8 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(61 of 500 reporting) +10.3% +n/a
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 282.74 +n/a:  Growth Rate +10.7% +n/a, P/E 22.4 +n/a
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.41% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +45.5% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 451.50 +n/a: Growth Rate +19.7% +n/a, P/E 33.4 +n/a
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .55 -2.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.45 +14.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 7.7 unch.
• US Yield Curve 52.0 basis points (2s/10s) -2.25 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.4% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 43.9% +1.1 percentage points

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.66% unch.: CPI YoY +2.73% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.86 +2.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.42 unch.
• Highest target rate probability for Sept. 17th FOMC meeting: 58.2% (+2.3 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Oct. 29th meeting: 49.0%(+1.0 percentage point) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Polymarket:

• Which Countries Will the US Agree to Tariff Agreements with Before August? 

• EU 34.0% +7.0 percentage points
• India 19.0% -7.0 percentage points.
• Japan 18.0% -2.0 percentage points. 
• South Korea  31.0% +4.0 percentage point.

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +70 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +12 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +30 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my utility/consumer discretionary/tech sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +.6%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver +3.7% 2) Telecom +2.0% 3) Retail +1.4%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• ALAB, BYON, S, DNA, TSSI, CLF, CENX, SEDG, RKT, XYZ, AEHR, COOP, CDNA, SDM, HMY, TTMI, DRD, LE, IREN, ACEL, NTLA, RUM, CAMT, RYAAY, ARM, GLXY, HROW, DXYZ, VZ, SKYT, RIOT, NMRK, HDB, HSY, OSCR, ZLAB, MBX, VALE, PBI, ZETA, CRSP, IBN, TSEM and DECK

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) VERI 2) CX 3) UAA 4) LDI 5) IVZ

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) OPEN 2) S 3) DYNXU 4) LX 5) XYZ

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLP 2) XLC 3) KWEB 4) GNR 5) XLU

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (BMI)/1.24
• (AVY)/2.39
• (KO)/.83
• (DHI)/2.89
• (DHR)/1.64
• (EFX)/1.92
• (GM)/2.31
• (GPC)/2.07
• (HAL)/.56
• (KEY)/.35
• (LMT)/6.52
• (NOC)/6.84
• (PCAR)/1.29 
• (PM)/1.86
• (PHM)/2.95
• (DGX)/2.57
• (RTX)/1.44
• (SHW)/3.80
• (THC)/2.89
• (VMI)/4.71 

After the Close: 

• (BKR)/.56
• (CALM)/6.27
• (CNI)/1.87
• (COF)/4.03
• (CB)/5.96
• (ISRG)/1.93
• (MANH)/1.13
• (PEGA)/.24
• (SAP)/1.66
• (TXN)/1.36
• (WFRD)/.98 

Economic Releases 

10:00 am EST

• The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for July is estimated to rise to -2.0 versus -7.0 in June.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Powell speaking, Fed's Bowman speaking, weekly US retail sales reports, M2 Money Supply report for June, Philly Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity Index for July, weekly API crude oil stock report and the (VFC) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Afternoon Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +2.1% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 19.4 +5.5
• 2 Sectors Declining, 9 Sectors Rising
• 62.7% of Issues Advancing, 35.5% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.42 +54.4% 
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$100.62M
  
• 92 New 52-Week Highs, 26 New Lows
• 53.9% (+2.1%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 60.7 +.5

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 76.3% -1.4%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 249.8 -.02%
  
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 168.9 -.15%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 75.0 (EXTREME GREED) unch.
• 1-Day Vix 7.8 -21.0%
  
• Vix 16.3 -.6%
  
• Total Put/Call .86 +16.2%
• Polymarket:  Which Countries Will the US Agree to Tariff Agreements with Before August?

• EU 32.0% +5.0 percentage points
• India 19.0% -7.0percentage points.
• Japan 18.0% -2.0 percentage points. 
• South Korea  31.0% +4.0 percentage point.

Monday Watch

Around X:

• @Business 

• Donald Trump is struggling to get the Fed to cut rates, but policymakers around the world won’t need so much convincing.
• The yen strengthened against the dollar as traders reacted to Japan’s ruling coalition failing to win a majority in the upper house election. 
• Exchanges globally are deliberating whether to widen their trading windows, as more individual investors trade on their smartphones. 
• “We’re already fully in the disaster zone,” a Harvard law professor says. Some faculty want a deal with Trump.
• Some prominent voices in the market say investors are underestimating the risks even from tariffs that are already in place. 
• The theory is that a new Fed chair would be more likely to fall in line with Trump’s lobbying for lower interest rates, and that would push down short-term yields.
• Here are five notable charts to consider in global commodity markets as the week gets underway. 
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.
• Here's what you need to know to start your day.

• @Zerohedge  

• From North America To Australia, Migrant Truckers Are Fueling A Highway Safety Crisis.
• JUST IN: President Trump posted an AI video of Barack Obama being ARRESTED by FBI and rotting in a prison cell. (video)
• Morgan Stanley's Shocking Math: Paying For AI Capex Will Require Over $1 Trillion In New Debt By 2028.
• "Illegal Alien Monster" Shoots Border Patrol Agent Point-Blank In Manhattan.
• Former fed @PeteStrzok, Sept. 17, 2020: "I believe that the president is compromised by the Russians". Remember how unashamedly they gaslit the whole country? (video)
• DEVELOPING: I'm told there are texts/emails indicating Hillary Clinton campaign aides directly coordinated with the Obama White House, NSC, State Dept and Intelligence Community officials in efforts to dig up dirt tying Donald Trump to Vladimir Putin in July 2016 ...developing... 
• Will Gen Z Realize Its Future Runs On Fossil Fuels?
• The Biden White House orchestrated AG Garland’s infamous Oct. 4 memo mobilizing the full force of the federal government against concerned parents at school board meetings. We suspected this from the beginning. But now we’ve caught them red-handed. 
• Top Goldman Trader: A Weaker Dollar Is Another Mag7 Tailwind.
• Gabbard To Release More Obama Russiagate Files, 'Cannot Fathom' How Durham, Mueller Missed Evidence Of 'Years-Long Coup'.
• Democrats Continue To Flounder As Approval Ratings Sink To All Time Lows.
• Grappling With Existential Panic Over AI.
• Insurers Request Huge Obamacare Rate Hikes, Many Over 20%.
• Army Special Operations Command Issues Terror Threat For Retired DoD Officials In Florida.
• Full Assault On The Media Machine: Trump Slashes USAID.
• This clip is amazing. If future generations study the fake news and how it operated, they should start with this clip. This is fake news, reporting on a story by fake news that claims the President isn't taking previously reported fake news seriously. In 2017 The Washington Post ran story after story about the severity and scope of the "Russian election interference," all based on leaks and quotes from corrupt intelligence community members. Brennan, Clapper, Comey... Former CIA Director Michael Hayden told The Washington Post that Russia's election interference was equivalent to 9/11.    
• Europe's Online Censorship Laws Could Restrict Americans Too, Analysts Say.
• Green Agenda Fallout: Democrat-Led Northeast Now Has Highest Electricity Prices In Nation.
• BREAKING: Detailed list of all 44 people in Meta's Superintelligence team. — 50% from China. — 75% have PhDs, 70% Researchers. — 40% from OpenAI, 20% DeepMind, 15% Scale. — 20% L8+ level. — 75% 1st gen immigrants. Each of these people are likely getting paid $10-$100M/yr. 
• Why did Obama and his allies go to such extremes (possibly even treason) to sabotage Trump before he took office? Because Trump wasn’t just a political threat. He was a threat to everything they were hiding. (thread)

• @CNBC

• CNBC Daily Open: Solid earnings beats might mask tariff volatility these two weeks.
• China holds key lending rates as softening consumer sentiment persists in world's second largest economy.  

• @LauraLoomer

• The Obama Administration approved a contract that let @Microsoft use Chinese foreign nationals to provide tech support across all U.S. federal agencies, including the Pentagon and our intel agencies. Navy Whistleblower Tom Schiller joined me on @LoomerUnleashed to explain how Microsoft’s “escort team” was supposed to provide oversight, but in reality, it was just for show. They hired vets and reservists who barely understood PowerShell, which allowed CCP-affiliated engineers to get remote access to classified information and top secret government systems. This isn't negligence. This is ESPIONAGE, and it has created a massive threat to our national security. Microsoft must be investigated! (video)
• BREAKING: @Microsoft had their PR official from @BursonGlobal send me a personal email today in regards to my interview with Navy Whistleblower Tom Schiller, who exposed the fact that Microsoft, through their contract with the US government, has been allowing Chinese nationals based in China to provide tech support for DOD Cyber Systems on the Microsoft Government Azure platform , allowing China to have full access to Classified information out of the Pentagon. This has been happening for 10 YEARS! It was authorized by Obama.  

• @C_3C_3

• You will be seeing this Spygate and Russiagate road map a lot on X. It lays out Obama, Hillary and everyone involved in the crime. @themarketswork created it and put a lot of research into laying out the truth. (table)

• @catturd2

• Well, Well, Well ... What have we here. Former President Obama: "No one -- especially the president -- is above the law." (video)

• @officer_Lew

• BREAKING: DNI Tulsi Gabbard reveals that numerous whistleblowers from the Obama administration are coming forward with information.

• @Chicago1Ray

• FLASHBACK. They called Trump a Russian asset then took a fake Dossier to a (FISA) court to get a warrant to wiretap Trump Tower. Everyone involved in RussiaGate must stand trial for it...this is Treason 100%. ObamaGate is way bigger than Watergate! (video)

• @NicHulscher

• The USDA has quietly approved an experimental self-amplifying RNA injection for dogs and cats—developed by Merck. These untested shots likely shed modified RNA to humans through contact with pet saliva. They’re already being administered to pets nationwide. (video)

• @EricLDaugh

• BREAKING: President Trump says Senate Majority Leader JOHN THUNE should CANCEL the August recess and "long weekends" to ram through his judicial nominees. "We need them badly!" He is correct...the Senate has not approved all of his nominees yet, and Trump has been making appointments to counter the left-wing judges.
• JUST IN: Elon Musk's new 3rd party is likely "dead on arrival". Elon Musk favorability: -37. Opposed to Musk-led 3rd party: 74%. Musk Republican favorability: -55 points in 4 months, from +61 in March to +6 in July. (video)

• @LangmanVince

• Never forget that Mitch McConnell and Paul Ryan were the heads of the Republican held House and Senate in 2017 when Barack Obama's Russia Collusion hoax was targeting President Trump and they both willingly went along with this obvious hoax because they hated Trump!

• @MJTruthUltra

• HOLEE SHIZZLES!! On July 10th, the FDA approved a new Moderna Covid shot for children 6 months to 11 years old. Dr. Robert Malone just revealed HHS officials went behind RFK Jr.’s back while on vacation to approve the Moderna shots. RFK Jr. received no briefing and gave no sign-off on the decision. Heather Flick Melanson (Chief of Staff) and Hannah Anderson (Deputy Chief of Staff for Policy) were FIRED! These vaccines are now subject of having the approval revoked… I knew it… something was not right.

• @charliekirk11

• In-N-Out President Lynsi Snyder is leaving California and moving to Tennessee, along with most of her corporate employees. “Raising a family is not easy here [and] doing business is not easy here.” California used to be America’s greatest state. Now, Americans can’t leave fast enough.

• @ImMeme0

• BREAKING: Socialist Democrat Omar Fateh has officially secured the Democratic endorsement for Mayor of Minneapolis. The Socialist takeover of the Democratic Party is unfolding right before our eyes.

• @wideawake_media

• "Since the introduction of sunscreen in 1940, melanoma has increased by over 200 percent." "This stuff is full of isobutanes, fragrances, and different types of benzoates... and you're spraying it all over your body because it's easy, it's convenient, and you think that it's protecting you from the Sun." "But what it's really doing is putting all types of toxins and chemicals all over your body, it's disrupting your endocrine system, and it's preventing you from absorbing the Sun properly." "The reality is, it's killing you slowly." (video)

• @TonySeruga

• Again, 70% of the Washington, DC tunnels are classified but they are there. The tunnels can be even faster than walking. I’m told there is a golf cart in the tunnel between The Islamic Center of Washington D.C. and the Obama’s mansion/war room. The Secret Service has to be guarding it. Here are all of the publicly known tunnels in Washington, DC.

• @listen_2learn

• Condoleezza Rice thought that the State Department needed reform, that USAID had mission creep, and that the concept of aid needed to be revisited since countries were not improving after decades of giving them our tax dollars. Since democrats are already talking about how to rebuild USAID when they take back power, congressional republicans should pass a law that specifically addresses what aid can and cannot be used for (ie food assistance yes, ideology and leftist nonprofits no). (video)

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 71.75 -.5 basis point.
  
• China Sovereign CDS 43.5 +.5 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 103.6 USD/Metric Tonne +2.8%.
• Polymarket: Which Countries Will the US Agree to Tariff Agreements with Before August?

• EU 27.0% -7.0 percentage points
• India 26.0% -2.0percentage points.
• Japan 20.0% +2.0 percentage points. 
• South Korea  27.0% -1.0 percentage point.

• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.95 -.24% 
  
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.75 -.05%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 77.5 +.1%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.42% -1.0 basis point.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.9 -1.2%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.26%.
• S&P 500 futures +.11%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.18%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Wednesday Watch

Around X:

• @Business

• The Office of the US Trade Representative opened an investigation into Brazil over its trade practices and whether they are unfairly restricting US exports to the country. 
• Here’s the latest news and analysis on the oil market.
• The precious metal has been supported by anxieties over the fallouts of trade tensions, geopolitical conflicts, and strong inflows to exchange-traded funds and central banks.
• Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan said policymakers will likely need to hold interest rates steady for a bit longer to fully cool inflation.
• Kevin Hassett, one of President Donald Trump’s longest-serving economic aides, is the early frontrunner to replace Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve chief next year.
• Donald Trump said that he was likely to impose tariffs on pharmaceuticals as soon as the end of the month and that levies on semiconductors could come soon as well.
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.
• Here's what you need to know to start your day. 

• @ZeroHedge 

• Goldman Warns of "Accelerated Property Price Declines" Across Chinese Cities. 
• Another 'Conspiracy Theory' Comes True: California Bill Passes To Buy Fire-Ravaged Palisades For Low-Income Apartments.
• The Threat From Far-Right Extremists Pales In Comparison To Jihadi Terrorist. 
• This Weekend In Japan, A Referendum On Financial Repression.
• Why Are Taxpayers Still Funding These Injection Mandates? 
• The Cryptographic Fix For US Elections Is Still Sitting On The Shelf.
• NEW: Republican Rep. Tim Burchett says we should publicly hang whoever was involved with Epstein's crimes, says he doesn't believe the Trump DOJ. Question: "Should there be an investigation or a special counsel investigation?" Burchett: "Just find them guilty and hang them publicly. That's not over the top either." Question: "You don't believe what the Justice Department is saying?" Burchett: "No, I don't." (video)
• Tropical Threat Brewing Off Florida, Gulf Of America Offshore Oil & Gas Rigs In Crosshairs.
• Semis & CPI Spark Surge In Big-Tech & The Buck; Bullion, Bitcoin, & Bonds Dumped.

• @CNBC 

• Wednesday’s big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session. 
• Trump says tariff letters for smaller countries coming soon; rates likely over 10%.
• Central banks are increasingly buying gold from local mines as prices surge.
• Westinghouse plans to build 10 large nuclear reactors in U.S., interim CEO tells Trump.

• @MikeBenzCyber

• So Fauci was pardoned by the White House Covid-19 coordinator, who made tens of millions of dollars off financial bets exploiting federal government healthcare policies.

• @WallStreetApes

• THERE IT IS. Gavin Newsom admits that HALF of all agricultural workers in California ARE ILLEGAL He says roughly 41% of construction workers ARE ILLEGAL. The real number of illegals in California is astronomical. THIS is why California is still Blue. Illegals. This is INSANE! (video)

• @GenFlynn

• @realDonaldTrump there are tens of millions of your supporters to include myself that this is all we needed to hear. The EPSTEIN AFFAIR is an ugly stain on our society and those who abuse children, regardless of their status in life, must be held accountable. The American people realize the weight and monumental challenges on your shoulders, but we also know you are the right person at the right time in U.S. history! Thank you for hearing us.

• @bennyjohnson

• Just got off the phone with top federal law enforcement contact. The change in approach to Epstein has been dramatic. Expect more disclosures. Some very powerful people inside Admin are now pushing for a Special Counsel and a full press briefing on Epstein findings. Important to note, this drastic change happened after @charliekirk11 and a number of other powerful MAGA Voices pushed back on the handling of the Epstein case this weekend at the Turning Point conference. They were met with massive roars and applause from the 7000 gathered that could not be ignored. In short: Our voices are being heard, power to the people.
• BREAKING EXCLUSIVE: Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene debunks FAKE NEWS that House Republicans unanimously voted to block the release of the Epstein Files: "That is not true. It was a procedural vote. We voted against Democrats having House floor control. It's a misunderstanding." (video)

• @GordonGChang

• No big deal, just Microsoft using engineers in China to help maintain the Defense Department’s computer systems. I couldn’t possibly imagine anything wrong with this. Someone must go to jail for this: Engineers in China maintain the Pentagon’s computer systems.
  Quote

• @unusual_whales

• BREAKING: Congresswoman Anna Paulina Luna confirms the imminent firing of Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

• @rawsalerts

• #BREAKING: Officials says that Metadata from the raw Epstein prison video shows approximately 2 minutes and 53 seconds were removed from one of two stitched together clips. The cut starts right at the missing minute.

• @C_3C_3

• Ask yourself this… Why does Karen Bass have time to fight ICE for illegals and Gavin Newsom has time to campaign but they only have issued 1% of the permits needed to rebuild after the Palisades fires? Weird!? (video)
• Reminder… Nancy Pelosi outperformed Warren Buffet over the last 10 years. Pelosi’s stock portfolio grew by 720%. Buffett's stock portfolio grew by 185%. Pelosi had almost 4 times the gains. Buffett is known as one of the greatest portfolio managers of all time. Criminal. 

• @BrianEntin

• The CEO of “Crowds on Demand” tells me he was offered $20,000,000 to recruit demonstrators for the anti-Trump protests on Thursday. (video)

• @annvandersteel  

• Florida's largest solar scam company is in Jacksonville, which is owned by the CCP and previously retained Mercury Public Affairs. @SusieWiles was co-chair for Mercury Public Affairs during the same period as the agreement. Wow!! I’m sure there’s a REASONABLE explanation for this. Perhaps @TuckerCarlson would be able to get a sit down with @SusieWiles and ask?

• @CheddarFlow

• Fund managers still remain underweight US equities. (graph)

• @EricLDaugh

• BREAKING: It is currently UNCLEAR whether the Senate Republicans have the minimum 51 votes to advance President Trump's DOGE cuts package on USAID, NPR, PBS, etc., per POLITICO. Deadline: Friday. DO NOT MESS THIS UP!!!

• @beefinitiative

• BREAKING: CONGRESS MOVES TO GRANT VACCINE-LIKE IMMUNITY TO PESTICIDE GIANTS! SECTION 453 WOULD SHUT DOWN EPA REVIEWS AND SHIELD MONSANTO-BAYER FROM 67,000 CANCER LAWSUITS!

• @RodDMartin

• TRUMP TO ANNOUNCE $70 BILLION INVESTMENT IN PITTSBURGH. Trump is unleashing a $70 billion energy + AI investment. Natural gas. Data centers. AI power. America First meets the future. Here’s what you need to know. (thread)

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 74.0 unch.
• China Sovereign CDS 46.75 unch.
• China Iron Ore Spot 99.65 USD/Metric Tonne +.74%. 
• Polymarket:  Which Countries Will the US Agree to Tariff Agreements with Before August?

• EU 40.0% +3.0 percentage points.
• India 57.0% +13.0 percentage points.
• Japan 22.0% +3.0 percentage points
• South Korea  37.0% -6.0 percentage points.

• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.96 +.01%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.79 -.06%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 77.1 +.1%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.48% -1.0 basis point.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.5 +.6%.  
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.06%. 
• S&P 500 futures -.12%. 
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.13%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by financial and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.