Saturday, July 26, 2025

Today's Headlines

Around X:

  • @Business
  • @Zerohedge 
  • @MarioNawful  
  • RFK JR.: VACCINE INGREDIENTS MAY TRIGGER LIFELONG ALLERGIES. "You’d take an aluminum adjuvant and inject it into that rat with a protein… that rat will have a lifetime allergy. That’s the same aluminum adjuvant that’s in hepatitis B vaccine. Vaccinated children, according to [a] study, are thirty times more likely to have allergic rhinitis than unvaccinated children. We need to look at the aluminum in the vaccines… to see if that has anything to do with this explosion of allergies that began in 1989." (video)
  • @BarronsOnline
  • Had bullish commentary on (DE) and (MTN).
  • @IGSquawk 
  • Polymarket
  • Which Countries Will the US Agree to Tariff Agreements with Before August? 
  • EU 60.0% -11.0 percentage points
  • India 25.0% -4.0 percentage points.
  • South Korea  47.0% -3.0 percentage points.
  • Mexico 29.0% unch. 
  • @FBIDDBongino
  • @IAnonPatriot
  • @nicksortor 
  • @judgejeaninne
  • @MJTruthUltra
  • @EricLDaugh
  • @JesseBWatters
  • @WarRoomGeorgia
  • WE WARNED some of the TOP TRUMP associates over AND OVER and OVER about the GA cabal that is manipulated by Kemp. Now here we are with a senate standoff between GUESS WHO??? KEMP and Trump. Kinda makes us wonder about the 22 race. Were the 2 democrats a better option to further the WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM agenda? Were the democrats delivered to Washington indirectly or directly by Kemp? Do your own math and come to your own conclusion. As we said, there are competing directions MAGA America 1st vs the Establishment. Trump's a populist, Kemp's a globalist.
  • @amuse
  • @toobaffled
  • @WarClandestine
  • @MAGAVoice

Friday, July 25, 2025

Evening Headlines

Around X:

  • @Business
  • @Zerohedge 
  • @CNBC
  • @EndWokeness
  • @RodDMartin 
  • @BennyJohnson
  • @kylenabecker
  • @disclosetv
  • @WarClandestine  
  • @HustleBitch_
  • @ShadowofEzra
  • @charliekirk11 
  • @NicHulscher
  • @GenFlynn
  • @glennbeck
  • @JoeLang51440671
  • @LangmanVince
  • Mike Pompeo had access to everything Tulsi Gabbard released this week, and the statute of limitations for the crimes committed by Barack Obama and his administration was not in question. He kept it hidden to help the deep state!
  • @BarronTNews_

Weekly Scoreboard*


S&P 500 6,388.6 +1.5%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

  • DJIA 44,901.9 +1.3%
  • NASDAQ 21,108.3 +1.0%
  • Russell 2000 2,261.1 +.9%
  • NYSE FANG+ 15,109.2 +1.0%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 228.6 +2.2%
  • Wilshire 5000 63,196.3 +1.4%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 4,426.6 +1.3%
  • Russell 1000 Value 1,958.6 +1.6%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 889.3 unch.
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index(Ex Telecom) 251.6 +.7%
  • NYSE Technology 6,320.6 -.2%
  • Transports 16,364.8 +3.2%
  • Utilities 1,082.5 +.8%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 145.8 +.14%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 49.53 +.9%
  • Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 231.2 +2.4%
  • Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 125.9 +.4%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 568,524 +.7%
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 10.9 +58.0%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 1,123 +207
  • Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -18.0 +21.8%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 162,427 -22.4%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,069,099 +3.9%
  • Total Put/Call .86 +16.2%
  • OEX Put/Call .93 -26.6%
  • ISE Sentiment 144.0 -2.0
  • NYSE Arms 1.06 +15.2%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 82.5 +5.9%
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .62 +5.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index 1.63 +32.0 basis points 
  • Volatility(VIX) 14.9 -9.0%
  • S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .25 -48.1%
  • CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 16.9 -9.0%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 8.3 -2.9%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 7.4 -3.3%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 23,294.7 +1.4%
  • NAAIM Exposure Index  81.1 -13.0
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $7.075 Trillion +.13%
  • ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$298.006 Million
  • AAII % Bulls 36.8 -6.4%
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 302.25 +.1%
  • Crude Oil 65.2/bbl. -3.2%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 209.7 -2.4%
  • Natural Gas 3.11 -12.8%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 32.5 euros/megawatt-hour -3.6%
  • Heating Oil 240.3 -1.9% 
  • Newcastle Coal 113.1 (1,000/metric ton) +1.9%
  • Gold 3,339.3 -.33%
  • Silver 38.25 +.2%
  • S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 469.3 +.9%
  • Copper 579.5 +3.8%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 345.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.6%
  • China Iron Ore Spot 101.9 USD/Metric Tonne -1.4%
  • China Battery Grade Lithium Carbonate 9,150.0 USD/metric tonne +5.5%
  • CME Lumber  671.5 +.52%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,381.64 -1.2%
  • US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 335.0 USD/Short Ton -.7%
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.4% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 41.2 -1.6 percentage points
  • NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 2.22 -5.1%
  • US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 296.6 -26.7%
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 6.8 -12.6%
  • DOGE Total Taxpayer Dollars Saved $190.0 Billion($1,180.12 Savings Per Taxpayer) unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(167 of 500 reporting) +.6% n/a
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 283.31 +n/a:  Growth Rate +10.9% +n/a percentage point, P/E 22.5 +n/a
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.44% +2.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(3 of 10 reporting) +22.4% +n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 454.56 +n/a: Growth Rate +20.5% +n/a percentage points, P/E 33.3 +n/a
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 3.5 -9.1 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 32.3 -2.1 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 15.2 -5.6 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 2.6%(-3.6 percentage points) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 4.0-4.25%, 97.4%(+3.6 percentage points) chance of no change, 0.0%(unch.) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 4.5-4.75% on 7/30
  • US Dollar Index 97.67 -.78%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,850.3 +.34%
  • Bitcoin/USD 116,723.5 -1.4%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 195.24 +.19%
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 9.01 -.63%
  • Yield Curve(2s/10s) 47.0 -7.25 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 4.39% -3.0 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $6.610 Trillion -.03%
  • Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $5.176 Billion -13.3%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 39.0 +1.6%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 212.5 -2.0%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 84.0 -2.0 basis points
  • UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 16.6 -.24%
  • China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 40.9 -6.8%
  • Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 148.3 +.5%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 74.97 -1.1%
  • South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 22.75 -3.5%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.24 +.81%
  • China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 121.3 -.05%
  • Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +3.9% unch.
  • Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +2.9% -20.0 basis points
  • US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +3.0% +10.0 basis points
  • CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +3.3% +20.0 basis points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.66% -2.0 basis points: CPI YoY +2.73% +9.0 basis points
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.62 -22.0 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.42 unch.
  • Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 5.75 basis points +2.0 basis points
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -25.25 -1.0 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap 1.75 +.25 basis point
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 49.9 -2.0%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 198.0 -4.4
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 199.0 +13.0 
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 56.1 -2.3%
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 122.7 -2.8%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 152.0 -1.7%
  • MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 148.0 -1.0 basis point
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 589.0 unch.
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS .54 +1.0 basis point
  • M2 Money Supply YoY % Change +4.5% unch.
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding $1,394.8B -.7%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 224,500 -2.2%
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.3% unch.
  • Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 54.9 +11.1%
  • Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 6.79% +6.0 basis points
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 255,500 +.8%
  • Weekly Retail Sales +5.2% unch.
  • OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY +12.0% +5.0 percentage points
  • Box Office Weekly Gross $300.1M +25.6%
  • Nationwide Gas $3.16/gallon +.01/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 2,258.0 +10.0%
  • Drewry World Container Freight Index $2,517.3/40 ft Box -3.3%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,261.4 -3.2%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 30.0 -7.7%
  • Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 64.3 -10.5%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 277,143 +1.8%
  • TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,968,619 +14.1% 
  • Rasmussen Reports Daily Presidential Approval Tacking Poll 48.0% -1.0 percentage point
Best Performing Style
  • Large-Cap Value +1.6%
Worst Performing Style
  • Small-Cap Growth +.5%
Leading Sectors
  • Oil Service +6.8%
  • Gold & Silver +4.2%
  • Electric Vehicles +4.1%
  • Pharma +4.0%
  • Biotech +3.7%
Lagging Sectors
  • Semis -1.5%
  • Restaurants -1.5%
  • Education -1.6%
  • Regional Banks -2.1%
  • Computer Services -6.4%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (66)
  • COUR, FIX, SCHL, MBX, GNTX, DECK, NEGG, RNA, MTX, TNXP, ASPI, PD, ENSG, KN, EME, SEZL, VCYT, TSSI, WW, GEO, NEM, NNE, VRSN, SAIA, PPBI, COLB, AAON, STRL, SAM, LB, COKE, CNC, PRO, SAH, TNET, YETI, STLA, LYB, AON, MOD, OKTA, GTX, VRT, TFII, EW, POR, NWG, USM, PTHL, LSPD, NWG, CADE, USM, OVV, LW, THRM, SXT, AEO, LQDA, BYD, VRNS, ELV, LBRT, SLM, LQDA, WY, RNR and CDNS
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (19)
  • SKE, SDM, TECK, BMNR, MBLY, SBET, DOC, FLG, LAND, IMVT, LEA, PRCT, TBBK, XYF, INTC, ASTS, PNFP, SNV, CHTR and LBRDK
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change


Stocks Rising into Afternoon on US-Global Trade Deal Optimism, Earnings Outlook Boosts, Lower Long-Term Rates, Electrification/Gambling Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.7 -.12%
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.39% -1.0 basis point
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.35% unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 101.9 USD/Metric Tonne -1.4%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 32.5 euros/megawatt-hour +.44%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 3.5 +1.1 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 32.3 -1.2 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 15.2 -.9 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(167 of 500 reporting) +8.3% -.7 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 283.31 +.29:  Growth Rate +10.9% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.5 unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.44% +2.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(3 of 10 reporting) +22.4% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 454.56 +1.71: Growth Rate +20.5% +.5 percentage point, P/E 33.3 unch.
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .62 unch.
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.63 +16.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 6.8 +.3
  • US Yield Curve 47.0 basis points (2s/10s) -1.75 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.4% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 41.2% -1.0 percentage point
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.66% unch.: CPI YoY +2.73% unch.
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.63 -10.0 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.42 unch.
  • Highest target rate probability for Sept. 17th FOMC meeting: 62.3% (+3.9 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Oct. 29th meeting: 50.0%(+.2 percentage point) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Polymarket:
  • Which Countries Will the US Agree to Tariff Agreements with Before August? 
  • EU 71.0% +12.0 percentage points
  • India 29.0% +4.0 percentage points.
  • South Korea  50.0% +1.0 percentage point.
  • Mexico 29.0% -3.0 percentage points. 
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -12 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -11 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +145 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/utility/industrial/financial/consumer discretionary sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (RVTY)/1.14
  • (EPD)/.64 
After the Close: 
  • (BRO)/.99
  • (CDNS)/1.56
  • (CR)/1.33
  • (HIG)/2.83
  • (NUE)/2.55
  • (OLN)/.01
  • (RMBS)/.68
  • (SANM)/1.42
  • (UHS)/4.92
  • (WHR)/1.79
  • (WWD)/1.63 
Economic Releases 
10:30 am EST
  • The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for July is estimated to rise to -9.0 versus -12.7 in June. 

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The 2/5Y T-Note auctions and the Alzheimer's Assoc. Intl. Conference could also impact global trading on Monday.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST