Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (EAT)/2.47
• (PFGC)/1.46
• (SSYS)/.03 
• (CRMT)/.83
• (BBWI)/.38 

After the Close: 

• (CSCO)/.98
• (COHR)/.92 

Economic Releases 

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -1,062,000 barrels versus a -3,029,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -648,200 barrels versus a -1,323,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to rise by +454,600 barrels versus a -565,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall -.24% versus a +1.5% gain prior.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Bostic speaking, Fed's Goolsbee speaking, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications, (MELI) investor meeting with Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Hardware/Semis Access Forum, Needham FinTech & Digital Transformation Conference report and the Oppenheimer Tech/Internet/Communications Virtual Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +11.3% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 13.8 -3.2
• 1 Sector Declining, 10 Sectors Rising
• 74.4% of Issues Advancing, 23.2% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.26 -.79% 
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$305.2M
  
• 95 New 52-Week Highs, 18 New Lows
• 50.7% (+5.2%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 55.7 +1.0

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 78.4% +3.0%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 248.2 +.9%
  
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 164.9 -1.4%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 63.0 (GREED) +6.0
• 1-Day Vix 8.4 -47.5%
  
• Vix 15.0 -7.5%
  
• Total Put/Call .93 +12.0%

Tuesday Watch

 Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 68.75 -1.0 basis point.
• China Sovereign CDS 44.75 +.25 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 103.8 USD/Metric Tonne +.29%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.86 +.03%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.6 -.1%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 76.7 +.8%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.28% unch.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.32 +.12%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.28%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.07%. 
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.08%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (BNTX)/-2.28
• (CNA)/.97
• (ENR)/.62
• (IDXX)/3.30
• (ON)/.53
• (TSSEM)/.45
• (RIG)/-.01
• (WAT)/2.94
• (W)/.33 

After the Close: 

• (ADTN)/.01
• (ANDE)/.51
• (AXON)/1.45
• (FANG)/2.77
• (EHC)/1.21
• (EQR)/.98
• (HIMS)/.15
• (IAC)/-.33
• (LSCC)/.24
• (MELI)/11.93
• (ODD)/.84
• (PLTR)/.14 
• (SPG)/3.05
• (TDWE)/.52
• (VNO)/.53
• (WMB)/.48 

Economic Releases 

10:00 am EST

• Factory Orders for June is estimated to fall -5.0% versus a +8.2% gain in May. 
• Factory Orders Ex Transports for June is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.2% gain in May.
• Final Durable Goods Orders readings for June. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The CB Employment Trends Index for July, Loan Officer Survey, (EXP) annual meeting and the (SPB) annual meeting could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.5% to -.5% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 68.75 +.25 basis point.
• China Sovereign CDS 41.25 +.25 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 100.5 USD/Metric Tonne +.7%. 
• Polymarket:  Which Countries Will the US Agree to Tariff Agreements with Before August?

• China 3.0% -17 .0 percentage points
• Canada 1.0% -12.0 percentage points.
• Mexico 90.0% +52.0 percentage points. 

• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.86 -1.8%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.3 -.04%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 77.4 -2.1%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.37% unch.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.2 +1.4%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.3%. 
• S&P 500 futures -.23%. 
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.33%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by real estate and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Higher into Afternoon on Lower Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Short-Covering, Tech/Utility Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.4 -.1%
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.34% -3.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.34% unch.

• China Iron Ore Spot 100.5 USD/Metric Tonne +.7%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 35.3 euros/megawatt-hour +.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 14.7 +1.3 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 39.3 -.4 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 11.7 +3.5 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(290 of 500 reporting) +9.5% +2.5 percentage points
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 283.82 -.05:  Growth Rate +11.1% unch., P/E 22.4 -.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.41% -1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(5 of 10 reporting) +26.0% +3.6 percentage points
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 457.1 +.57: Growth Rate +21.2% +.2 percentage point, P/E 33.7 +.4
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .48 +10.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.53 +6.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 6.9 unch.
• US Yield Curve 40.5 basis points (2s/10s) -2.75 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.3% -60.0 basis points
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 41.5% -1.9 percentage points

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.85% +19.0 basis points: CPI YoY +2.72% -1.0 basis point
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.75 -5.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.39 -3.0 basis points
• Highest target rate probability for Oct. 29th FOMC meeting: 47.0% (-1.9 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for DEC. 10th meeting: 42.4%(+4.3 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Polymarket:

• Which Countries Will the US Agree to Tariff Agreements with Before August? 

• China 11.0% -9.0 percentage points
• Canada 19.0% +6.0 percentage points.
• Mexico 91.0% +53.0 percentage points. 

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -430 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -35 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +40 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/utility sector longs, emerging market shorts and index hedges
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long