Evening Headlines

Around X:

• @Business

• President Donald Trump moved to exempt graphite, tungsten, uranium, gold bullion and other metals from his country-based tariffs, while subjecting silicone products to the levies.

• @Zerohedge 

• Cumulative payrolls revisions since 2022. (graph)
• Vietnam Replacing China As Key Link In Global Supply Chains.
• Yep. The Fed’s “Gain of Function” Monetary Policy by @SecScottBessent.
• Democrat Extremism Underwrites Trump.
• *ZELENSKIY REJECTS PUTIN INVITATION FOR MEETING IN MOSCOW: ABC.
• *ZELENSKIY SAYS OF PUTIN, 'HE CAN COME TO KYIV': ABC.
• 450 Illegal Aliens Arrested At Hyundai Battery Plant In Georgia.   
• *TRUMP SAYS FED CANDIDATES ARE WALLER, WARSH AND HASSETT.
• Do Doctors Make Money Off Vaccines? A Look At Incentives And Bonus Structures.
• The Power-Bill Crisis Keeps Energy Secretary Wright Up At Night.
• The Grifters' Lament.
• 'Buy All The Things' - Bad Data Sparks Big Week For Bonds, Bullion, & Bitcoin.  

• @MarioNawful

• BREAKING | REP. LUNA REVEALS EPSTEIN INVESTIGATION FINDINGS: CLAIMS INTELLIGENCE CONNECTIONS TO SAUDI ARABIA, RUSSIA, ISRAEL. Rep. Anna Paulina Luna shared new details from the congressional Epstein investigation, claiming "definite intelligence connection" involving multiple countries and a former CIA director. Key claims from Luna:

• @CNBC

• Senate seeks to rein in stock tokenization in latest crypto bill draft.

• @LauraLoomer

• Our own FBI Director said Mark Zuckerberg is a criminal who engaged in criminal election fraud. @FBIDirectorKash said Mark Zuckerberg needs to be jailed. Tonight, Zuckerberg is having dinner at the White House and sitting next to President Trump. What about accountability? (video)
• Why is @DavidSacks inviting all of the people who worked to kill off the MAGA movement to sit and have dinner at the White House with President Trump? What’s going on here? Because every single one of those tech executives in the room with Trump tonight is guilty of screwing over the American people, and quite frankly, the entire world in one way or another. How many people have Zuckerberg and @BillGates killed with their fake science and censorship? These criminals need to pay a price. Sitting next to Trump at dinner is an Honor.

• @MikeBenzCyber

• Big Pharma paid Elizabeth Warren over $10 million for her opinions what opinions do you think they paid her to have. (pic)

• @WallStreetMav

• It was Elon who risked his entire business, his reputation and hundreds of millions of $$$ in swing states to help get President Trump elected in 2024. If President Trump needs tech advisors, Bill Gates and Mark Zuckerberg should not be anywhere near the White House. They both fund radical left wing groups opposed to MAGA and Trump's policies. (pic)

• @Rothbard1776

• BILL GATES: “The President and I are talking about taking American innovation to the next level to cure, and even eradicate, some diseases”. This is like hiring Hunter Biden to combat prostitution. (video)

• @BennyJohnson

• BREAKING: Whistleblowers Inside HHS and CDC have just sent me critical information on an ACTIVE sabotage operation taking place within the Federal Health Departments. Left-wing career bureaucrats are in total panic over RFK Jr. shutting down their Big Pharma grift and are trying to take down the agencies from the inside. And they’re using the CIA to do it. Here’s how it’s happening:
  

• @InformedNJNurse  

• This guy should be in jail, yet here he is with our President talking about vaccines. (video) 

• @P_McCulloughMD

• Government Officials Named in COVID-19 Vaccine Myocarditis Cover-Up. One America News Real America's Dan Ball Vindicated by HSGAC PSI Interim Report and Daily Clout Investigations.

• @Liz_Churchill10

• Never forget that Bill Gates’ daughter had a multi-million dollar lavish wedding in 2021…while people were still being FORCED into Quarantine Camps…while his family partied in a mask-free environment…2 years after his sponsored Event 201…which predicted the ‘Pandemic’.
  

• @nicksortor

• Why the hell are Senate Republicans TOTALLY MIA in Secretary Kennedy’s hearing??! This hearing is nothing but Democrats lining up to scold RFK Jr. DO YOUR JOBS, SENATE REPUBLICANS! COME ON! You just had an ENTIRE MONTH OFF!

• @Geiger_Capital

• This is Zohran Mamdani’s housing advisor: “Private property and especially homeownership is a weapon of white supremacy…” (pic)

• @Dapper_Det 

• BREAKING: Right now a 14-year-old girl has been rescued after being kidnapped, human trafficked and raped for two weeks by an illegal alien working as delivery driver in Florida. Democrats imported child predators for 4 years. (video) 

• @newstart_2024

• Senator Johnson's Smoking Gun: 8 Million HHS Pages Prove CDC Deliberately Hid Myocarditis Signal. They Lied, Censored, & Attacked VAERS. This is a Catastrophic Breach of Trust. Senator Ron Johnson: "We are dismantling the wall of corruption, one document at a time. My committee has obtained over 8 million pages from HHS, and the evidence is damning. We have proof the CDC knew about the myocarditis signal and deliberately hid it from the public and doctors. This is a catastrophic breach of trust.

• @C_3C_3

• Donald Trump is the only President in history to have recess appointments blocked by his own party. Mitch McConnell in the 1st Term and John Thune in the 2nd Term. Uniparty. (video)

• @robbystarbuck

• It’s infuriating to see Bill Gates at the White House in a position of honor. I want a future where we stop giving power to evil people like Gates. He’s a globalist who hates the America First ideology. His God complex deserves nothing but contempt. (video)

• @JasonFrazierUSA

• Gabe is probably the only RINO in Georgia that would actually be a worse Secretary of State than we have today. We need to close the primary so the Democrats, who all love our RINO Secretary of State, don't vote Gabe in to fill that seat. Gabe believes we have the cleanest voter rolls in the country and our elections are clean while refusing to let us see the ballots so we can do a true audit of the elections.

OpenVAERS:  

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 1,026,503 Reports(+728 from prior report) Through July 25th, 2025.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 6,471.4 -.6%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

• DJIA 45,396.0 -.7%

• NASDAQ 21,656.5 -.3%

• Russell 2000 2,382.5 +.1%

• NYSE FANG+ 15,675.3 +.8%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 220.0 -1.7%

• Wilshire 5000 64,154.3 -.6%

• Russell 1000 Growth 4,509.2 -.7%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,974.9 -.5%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 888.95 +.7%

• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index(Ex Telecom) 255.6 +.06%
  

• NYSE Technology 6,438.9 -.54%

• Transports 15,693.4 -1.5%

• Utilities 1,076.3 -1.7%

• MSCI Europe Banks 95.94 -1.8%
  

• MSCI Emerging Markets 50.36 +.63%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 237.6 -.05%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 126.2 -.06%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 574,661 +.09%
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 12.5 +90.0%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 560 -577

• Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -14.4 +4.0%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 109,472 -8.9%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,912,554 -.5%

• Total Put/Call .71 -9.2%

• OEX Put/Call 1.4 -1.8%

• ISE Sentiment 145.0 -21.0

• NYSE Arms 1.27 -10.7%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 81.1 +1.6%
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .61 -5.0 basis points
• Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index 1.43 -10.0 basis points 
  

• Volatility(VIX) 15.6 +12.0%
• S&P 500 Intraday % Swing 1.38 +87.9%

• CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 16.1 +15.4%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 8.0 +.6%
  

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 7.1 -.03%

• Smart Money Flow Index 23,545.2 +2.2%
• NAAIM Exposure Index  81.6 -11.3

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $7.259 Trillion +.7%

• ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$.133 Million

• AAII % Bulls 32.7 -5.5%

• AAII % Bears 43.4 +10.2%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 52.0 (GREED) -12.0

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 300.35 -.1%

• Crude Oil 61.89/bbl. -4.1%

• Reformulated Gasoline 196.54 -1.3%

• Natural Gas 3.05 +1.7%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 32.0 euros/megawatt-hour +.7%
  

• Heating Oil 228.9 -1.8% 
• Newcastle Coal 108.3 (1,000/metric ton) -1.4%

• Gold 3,593.9 +4.3%
• Silver 41.0 +3.3%
  

• S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 464.4 +.3%

• Copper 454.0 +1.7%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 344.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.9%

• China Iron Ore Spot 104.1 USD/Metric Tonne +2.5%
• China Battery Grade Lithium Carbonate 10,900.0 USD/metric tonne -5.4%

• CME Lumber  583.0 +4.5%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,371.0 -1.9%
• US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 337.5 USD/Short Ton +.8%

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.0% -.5 percentage point

• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 43.0 -1.4 percentage points

• NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 2.52 -3.5%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 383.3 -15.8%
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 3.5 -20.5%
• DOGE Total Taxpayer Dollars Saved $205.0 Billion($1,273.29 Savings Per Taxpayer) unch.
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(496 of 500 reporting) +12.6% +.2 percentage point

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 290.25 +.70:  Growth Rate +10.8% +.2 percentage point, P/E 22.4 -.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.49% -3.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 10 reporting) +27.9% +n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 476.87 +1.52: Growth Rate +16.6% +.3 percentage point, P/E 32.7 unch.

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 20.1 -5.1 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 20.1 -2.1 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 11.9 +4.7 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 88.2%(+1.3 percentage points) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 4.0-4.25%, 0.0%(-13.1 percentage points) chance of no change, 0.0%(unch.) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 4.5-4.75% on 9/17

• US Dollar Index 97.71 -.2%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,832.5 -.1%
  

• Bitcoin/USD 110,925.0 +1.3%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 195.0 +.5%
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.93 -.4%

• Yield Curve(2s/10s) 57.75 -2.5 basis points
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 4.08% -14.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $6.554 Trillion -.02%
• Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $4.690 Billion +.15%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 39.0 -.6%
  

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 197.2 -1.3%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 84.0 -2.0 basis points
• UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 19.0 +3.8%

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 41.1 -6.3%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 136.9 -.1%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 73.0 -2.2%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 19.0 -3.5%

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.40 +.5%
• China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 125.0 +.5%
  

• Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +3.8% unch.
• Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +2.8% unch.
• US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +2.9% unch.
• CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +3.6% unch.
• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.95% unch.: CPI YoY +2.84% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.63 -15.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.37 -5.0 basis points

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread -37.5 basis points -19.0 basis points
• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -23.25 -.5 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap .75 -.75 basis point

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 50.3 -1.3%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 204.0 +.2% 
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 199.0 -7.0 
  

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 57.79 -2.5%
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 126.4 -1.5%

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 143.9 -.6%
  

• MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 130.0 -6.0 basis points
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 582.0 +1.0 basis point
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .49 -1.0 basis point

• M2 Money Supply YoY % Change +4.8% unch.

• Commercial Paper Outstanding $1,403.1B -.1%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 231,000 +1.1%
  

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.3% unch.
• Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 52.4 +.2%
  

• Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 6.59% -4.0 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 272,500 -1.2%

• Weekly Retail Sales +6.1% +10.0 basis points
• OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY +8.0% -2.0 percentage points
• Box Office Weekly Gross $197.5M unch.

• Nationwide Gas $3.20/gallon +.01/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 1,963.0 -3.1%
• Drewry World Container Freight Index $2,103.8/40 ft Box -.7%
  

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,149.1 -.6%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 35.0 unch.
• Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 62.0 +3.0%

• Rail Freight Carloads 286,762 +1.5%
• TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,305,711 +3.7% 
• Rasmussen Reports Daily Presidential Approval Tacking Poll 48.0% unch.

Best Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value +.6%

Worst Performing Style

• Mid-Cap Growth -1.5%

Leading Sectors

• Gold & Silver +7.9%

• Disk Drives +4.7%
• Homebuilding +4.1%

• Biotech +3.1%
  

• Networking +2.3%
  

Lagging Sectors

• Road & Rail -2.5%

• I-Banking -3.0%
  

• Energy -3.6%

• Gambling -4.6%
  

• Education -5.8%
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (87)

• GWRE, EYPT, ZUMZ, CSIQ, IOT, KRMN, TRML, AVGO, METC, BRZE, VERA, TTAN, BILL, PSFE, BNTX, CLS, BEAM, SMMT, DFH, BTU, DQ, MIR, ENPH, RH, CGON, RIVN, GPCR, JACK, U, W, MAX, OCUL, CYTK, IMVT, DOCU, JKS, IMNM, ARQT, SNDK, SGHC, EXAS, RKT, TECK, FND, LITE, MKTX, B, CDE, PATH, NAMS, HUBS, Z, POOL, ABVX, ECPG, VSTM, WIX, DNTH, ZG, TFPM, DOCN, IONS, SOUN, GFI, GLPG, CRDO, LEN, INOD, KRNT, TEN, AVBP, NBIX, IDYA, PAAS, RNA, NRDS, MEOH, MU, CCRN, LEGN and MBC

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (21)

• CLH, TW, SFD, APP, APO, VIRT, OWL, HOOD, SPRY, CHA, KYIV, DNA, FLNG, CPRT, AMD, SCHW, ASAN, PHR, NX, AGX and LULU

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Reversing Lower into Afternoon on Global Growth Concerns, Technical Selling, Profit-Taking, Energy/Financial Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.48 +.17%
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.07% -9.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.0% -10.0 basis points

• China Iron Ore Spot 104.2 USD/Metric Tonne -.7%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 32.0 euros/megawatt-hour -1.4%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 20.1 -2.8 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 20.1 -5.0 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 11.9 -.2 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(496 of 500 reporting) +12.6% +.3 percentage point
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 290.25 +.10:  Growth Rate +10.8% unch., P/E 22.4 +.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.49% -1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +28.4% +.5 percentage point
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 476.87 +.17: Growth Rate +16.6% -.1 percentage point, P/E 32.7 +.2
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .61 +5.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.43 -1.0 basis point
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 3.5 -.8
• US Yield Curve 58.0 basis points (2s/10s) -.5 basis point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.0% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 43.0% +.1 percentage point

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.95% unch.: CPI YoY +2.84% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.62 -7.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.36 -3.0 basis points
• Highest target rate probability for Oct. 29th FOMC meeting: 75.1% (+21.5 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 10th meeting: 68.7%(+22.9 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +20 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +36 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -9 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my industrial/financial sector longs and emerging market shorts
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (PL)/-.05 

After the Close: 

• (CASY)/5.05
• (AVO)/.14 

Economic Releases 

11:00 am EST

• The NY Fed 1Y Inflation Expectations Index for Aug. 

3:00 pm EST

• Consumer Credit for July is estimated to rise to $10.2B versus $7.371B in June. 

Upcoming Splits

• (DGNX) 8-for-1

Other Potential Market Movers

• The CB Employment Trends Index for Aug., Goldman Sachs Communacopia Tech Conference, Morgan Stanley Healthcare Conference, Baird Healthcare Conference, Barlcays Financial Services Conference, (DECK) annual meeting and the Precious Metals Summit could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Friday Watch

Around X:

• @Business 

• Japanese stocks are set to gain after President Donald Trump signed an executive order implementing his trade agreement with Japan, with a maximum 15% tariff on most of its products, including automobiles and parts.
• Meta’s Mark Zuckerberg and Apple’s Tim Cook joined tech industry leaders in touting their pledges to boost spending in the US on artificial intelligence during a dinner hosted by President Trump.
• President Donald Trump said he would be imposing tariffs on semiconductor imports “very shortly” but spare goods from companies like Apple that have pledged to boost their US investments. 
• Bond and currency traders are bracing for the August jobs report, which stands to solidify views on Fed policy and determine the near-term trajectory of interest rates.
• OpenAI is preparing to design and produce its own AI chip with help from Broadcom in 2026, the Financial Times reports. 
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.
• Here's what you need to know to start your day. 

• @ZeroHedge  

• Trump Tariffs Go From Terriying To Indispensable To Prevent A Bond Market Crash.
• Sweeney's "Great Jeans" Fuel American Eagle Sales, Shares Jump Most On Record.
• Bonds & Stocks Bid Ahead Of Payrolls-Palooza; Gold & Bitcoin Fade.

• @CNBC

• Asia-Pacific markets set to open mixed after Trump formalizes lower Japanese auto tariffs.
• JPMorgan names humanoid robot stocks to buy as Musk stakes Tesla's future on the tech.
• Friday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.
• Stock futures are little changed ahead of August jobs report: Live updates.

• @TheTranscript 

• Broadcom CEO: "[We] achieved record third quarter revenue on continued strength in custom AI accelerators, NETWORKING & VMware. We expect growth in AI semiconductor revenue to accelerate to $6.2B in Q4, delivering 11 consecutive quarters of growth..." $AVGO: - 1% AH.
• Lulu lemon CEO: "While we continued to see positive momentum overall in our international regions in Q2 25, we were disappointed with our U.S. business results and aspects of our product execution" $LULU: - 12% AH.

• @FinalTelegraph

• Everyone is talking about the allegations of mortgage fraud against Fed Governor Lisa Cook. But that's just the cover story. The real scandal is a decade-long trail of academic fraud, cancel culture extremism, and radical politics that put an unqualified activist at the heart of our economy. This isn't about one mortgage. It's about the deliberate corruption of America's most important financial institution. THREAD:

• @WallStreetApes

• Barack Obama ruined everything. When Barack Obama became president he ordered Nashville Music Executives replaced with his own people. They then dictated what kind of music was allowed to be made, its messaging and even who artists could interview with “When Obama became president, a lot of the original guys that were running those labels, they would bring in a New York guy to replace the Nashville guy. Then when the new guy comes in, he would start changing the culture of that label, which bled all the way down into the artists, and it bled all the way down into the publicity departments and what kind of songs you were allowed to cut, what interviews you were allowed to do, who you were allowed to interview with. — I started getting in trouble with the label because I was doing interviews with Sean Hannity. My record label went absolutely insane that I did that.” (video)

• @DC_Draino

• How about this. RFK fires every HHS worker who signs the petition demanding his resignation Pretty easy way to clean out the far left radicals.
• Ok someone is murdering Germany’s right wing politicians. 7 are dead in the months leading up to next week’s election. This is a battle of good vs evil. 

• @LeadingReport

• BREAKING: Nearly all errors from the 2020 Census disproportionately hurt red states, with many undercounted and many blue states overcounted, per Census Bureau audit.

• @BreitbartNews

• 5 House Republicans voted with Democrats to block the censure of LaMonica McIver for assaulting federal agents. These are their names: 1. Don Bacon (NE). 2. Mike Flood (NE). 3. Dave Joyce (OH). 4. Michael Turner (OH). 5. David Valadao (CA). Andrew Garbarino (NY) and Nathaniel Moran (TX) voted present.

• @Holden_Culotta

• Dr. Robert Malone just REVEALED the CDC is about to revisit the entire childhood vaccine schedule. “Everything is on the table.” “The mission space that we have … includes revisiting the entire pediatric schedule, insisting on data for vaccine-vaccine interactions, insisting on control data, addressing the appropriateness of immediate after-birth vaccination with hepatitis B vaccine [and] the appropriateness of the current human papilloma virus vaccine.” (video) 

• @dreamy12122

• While she repeatedly voted to NOT lower interest rates for us, this Fed Governor was lying on her own mortgage documents to get a lower interest rate for herself. Let that sink in. Arrest Lisa Cook.

• @newstart_2024

• Naomi Wolf reveals a bombshell: Pfizer knew of 1,225 deaths within just three months of vaccine rollout. They also knew by April 2021 that the shot was damaging minors' hearts, per warnings from Israel and pediatric experts. Instead of warning the public, internal emails show a full freak-out at the highest levels. The chain reached 15 White House officials and even a template for POTUS. Their response? A 17-page redacted script on how to lie to the American people. The plan: downplay it as "mild, transient, and rare" myocarditis. Then, they launched a summer-long propaganda campaign using influencers and TikTok stars to push the shot on teens. They knew. They lied. And they marketed it to your children. (video)

• @TheChiefNerd

• BILL GATES: “The President and I are talking about taking American innovation to the next level to cure, and even eradicate, some diseases”. (video)

• @MikeBenzCyber

• So the calls for RFK Jr. to resign didn’t come out of nowhere. A leaked April 3 “BIO Vaccine Policy Steering Committee” memo shows industry insiders openly plotting to “go to The Hill and lobby that it is time for RFK Jr. to go.” This is worth reading in full.

• @EricLDaugh

• JUST IN: CNN is now reporting that even in BIASED POLLING, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is "THE MOST POPULAR OFFICIAL in Trump's Cabinet." The attempts to make him resign must fail. RFK Jr. needs all the support he can get. (video)

• @bennyjohnson

• SEN. WARNER: "You're saying the Biden Administration politicized all of the Covid data?” RFK JR: "Yeah. They fired all of the people who questioned the orthodoxy.” Boom! (video)
• RFK Jr. just went off for 2 minutes straight tearing into the politicization of COVID. The entire room went silent. Watch: “The whole process was politicized. Senator, I mean, we were lied to about everything.” “We were lied to about natural immunity. We were lied to about, you know, we were told again and again, the vaccines would prevent transmission. They'd prevent infection. It wasn't true. They knew it from the start. It wasn't true because that's what the animal studies in the clinical trials showed. We were told that there was science behind cloth masks.” “The CDC allowed the teachers union to write the order closing our schools, which hurt working people all over the country, and then pretend it was science-based.” 
• This is the most important video on X right now: Attorney for the Epstein victims standing outside of a Florida Courthouse CONFIRMING that Donald Trump was the ONLY high-profile figure who HELPED him prosecute Epstein: (video) 

• @Bannons_WarRoom

• BANNON: You’re watching it play out in real time. The oligarchs of Big Pharma, Big Medical, and Big Insurance are coming after RFK JR. and the entire MAHA movement, yet he isn't flinching. And neither will we. (video)

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.5% to +1.0% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 64.5 -1.5 basis points.
• China Sovereign CDS 40.75 -.75 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 104.2 USD/Metric Tonne -.6%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.87 +.09%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.4 -.04%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 79.6 -1.6%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.15% -1.0 basis point.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.8 -.4%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.21%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.13%. 
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.27%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Afternoon on Falling Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Optimism, US Economic Data, Tech/Consumer Discretionary Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.41 -.08%
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.18% -4.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.10% -2.0 basis points

• China Iron Ore Spot 104.4 USD/Metric Tonne -.44%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 32.4 euros/megawatt-hour +.93%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 22.9 -2.9 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 25.1 -.7 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 12.1 -.3 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(493 of 500 reporting) +12.3% -.1 percentage point
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 290.15 +.12:  Growth Rate +10.8% unch., P/E 22.3 +.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.50% -1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 10 reporting) +27.9% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 476.70 +.33: Growth Rate +16.7% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.5 +.2
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .56 +3.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.44 +13.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 4.3 unch.
• US Yield Curve 58.5 basis points (2s/10s) -1.25 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.0% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 42.9% +1.1 percentage points

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.95% unch.: CPI YoY +2.84% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.69 -3.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.39 -2.0 basis points
• Highest target rate probability for Oct. 29th FOMC meeting: 53.0% (+1.4 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 10th meeting: 46.3%(-1.3 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +20 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +36 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -9 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/consumer discretionary/industrial/financial sector longs and emerging market shorts
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long