Stocks Falling into Final Hour on Higher Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Jitters, Profit-Taking, Tech/Financial Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.43 -.31%
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.14% +4.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.96% +3.0 basis points

• China Iron Ore Spot 106.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.1%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 31.9 euros/megawatt-hour -1.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 8.9 +4.6 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 11.1 -6.0 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 5.1 -.3 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 500 reporting) +18.0% +18.8 percentage points
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 293.03 +.23:  Growth Rate +11.7% -.1 percentage point, P/E 22.6 -.2
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.50% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 490.38 +1.13: Growth Rate +18.9% -.8 percentage point, P/E 32.8 -.6
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .70 -6.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 2.10 +45.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 3.1 +.1
• US Yield Curve 54.5 basis points (2s/10s) +2.0 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.3% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 35.1% +.6 percentage point

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.99% unch.: CPI YoY +3.0% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.74 +6.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.38 +1.0 basis point
• Highest target rate probability for Dec. 10th FOMC meeting: 75.2% (+.1 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 28th meeting: 53.5%(+1.3 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 4.0-4.25%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -140 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -41 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +131 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my consumer discretionary/utility sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -1.1%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver -3.0% 2) Computer Hardware -2.2% 3) Disk Drives -2.1%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• ORCL, B, BNU, KVUE, MBX, SLDE, CYD, BETR, SNDK, HRTG, PGY, SOC, LBTR, HNGE, ACAD, MLKN, RIGL, ALAB, MENS, RCAT, WOR, BE, COHU, FCX and HRMY

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) QURE 2) XLV 3) FCX 4) SYM 5) FCEL

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) WOR 2) COHU 3) BE 4) ALAB 5) SOC

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) ARKK 2) XLF 3) IYW 4) SOXX 5) KRE

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -.1%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy +2.6% 2) Energy +2.1% 3) Oil Service +1.3%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• QURE, CLPT, CDTX, IAS, IREN, DQ, VNET, FLNC, IMNM, EOSE, KOD, SLNO, MAZE, GDS, ARQQ, VTLE, ACHC, RGTI, ERO, EWTX, EH, MRVL, GGAL, BABA, ANAB, SCCO, BIDU, RIOT, HUT, UUUU, FUTU, BTU, TECK, METC, BTDR, JD, EYPT, INTC, CSIQ, BKKT, UTI, IMVT, NBIS, CF, KYIV, THO, LBRT, PONY, NTR, SVV, HTHT, IRS, BMA, BKKT, PLNT, IE, EQT, AIR, JACK, KBR, CCCX, NTLA, DIN, BURL, XIFR, APA, G, VIST, SERV, CVE, TGS, TIGR, WST, BCAX, PAA, CLBT and KC

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) LAC 2) LRMR 3) EU 4) ABR 5) QURE

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) CLPT 2) IAS 3) LAC 4) SHFS 5) SLNO

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) MSTY 2) XLV 3) GDXJ 4) XBI 5) VGT

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (ACN)/2.97
• (KMX)/1.04
• (JBL)/2.92
• (SNX)/3.05 

After the Close: 

• (BB)/.01
• (CNXC)/2.87
• (COST)/5.80 

Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

• BEA Annual Update of National Economic Accounts.
• 2Q GDP revisions.
• Advance Goods Trade Balance for Aug. is estimated at -$95.5B versus -$103.6B in July.
• Wholesale Inventories MoM for Aug. is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.1% gain in July.
• Retail Inventories MoM for Aug. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.2% gain in July.
• Durable Goods Orders for Aug. is estimated to fall -.3% versus a -2.8% decline in July.
• Durables Ex Transports for Aug. is estimated unch. versus a +1.0% gain in July.
• Cap Goods Orders Non-Defense Ex-Air for Aug. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.7% gain in July.
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated to rise to 234K versus 231K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims is estimated to rise to 1933K versus 1920K prior. 

10:00 am EST

• Existing Home Sales for Aug. is estimated to fall to 3.96M versus 4.01M in July.

11:00 am EST

• The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for Sept. is estimated to rise to 2.0 versus 1.0 in Aug. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Goolsbee speaking, Fed's Williams speaking, Fed's Barr speaking, Fed's Daly speaking, Fed's Logan speaking, 7Y T-Note auction, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, weekly Fed balance sheet report, (OKTA) investor meeting, (LW) annual meeting, (AVAV) annual meeting and the BofA Healthcare Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +12.7% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 15.1 +.8
• 7 Sectors Declining, 4 Sectors Rising
• 37.0% of Issues Advancing, 61.3% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .86 +19.4% 
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$168.0M
  
• 69 New 52-Week Highs, 34 New Lows
• 62.0% (-.2%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 65.0 -5.9

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 84.2 +.2%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 257.6 -.01%
  
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 164.0 -1.7%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 57.0 (GREED) -5.0
• 1-Day Vix 9.9 +2.2%
  
• Vix 17.2 +3.3%
  
• Total Put/Call .84 -5.6%

Wednesday Watch

Around X:

• @Business 

• China will no longer claim the special treatment available to developing nations at the World Trade Organization, removing a point of contention with the US that’s been one barrier to the two nations agreeing on reforming the global trade forum.
• OpenAI plans to invest roughly $400 billion to develop five new US data center sites in partnership with Oracle and SoftBank.
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.
• Here's what you need to know to start your day. 

• @ZeroHedge    

• $2.2 billion solar plant in California turned off after years of wasted money: ‘Never lived up to its promises’.
• BREAKING: @FearlessDebates forced to flee Tennessee State University for their safety after being accosted by students. (video) 
• BREAKING: Groveling and afraid, Chuck Schumer BACKTRACKS, BEGS and PLEADS to meet with President Trump, including "on the golf course," after Trump rejected their demands of $1T, paid-for trans surgeries for kids and illegal alien healthcare in exchange for no government shutdown. "We are ready to work with the president! We're willing to sit down with him, we'll even come to the golf course! Wherever he wants to go, that's OK!" This comes after he LOST the public perception battle - everyone knows if it shuts down, it's his fault. (video)
• Tom Homan Says 2 Million Illegal Aliens Have Exited U.S., Insists Deportations Will "Explode".
• The Fed's Mission Creep & QE: Krugman Vs Bessent, Who's Right?
• When Sanders calls for a green transformation of the energy system, he is representing his banker and deep state billionaire friends who will make trillions in government fees and subsidies.
• Trump Says Ukraine Can Win Back All Territory Lost to Russia.
• Watch: Pregnant Democrats Protest Trump By Chugging Tylenol.
• Jerome Powell's Reign Of Error.
• Trump Admin Seeks 10% Equity Stake In Lithium Americas.
• Snyder: America Is Reaching A Boiling Point.
• Oil & Gold Pop, Stocks Drop As Powell Calls Market "Fairly Highly Valued".   

• @CNBC

• Asia markets set to rise after Wall Street declines as U.S. Fed chair suggests stocks are overvalued.
• Wednesday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.
• Stock futures are little changed after S&P 500 pulls back from record highs: Live updates.
• OpenAI's first data center in $500B Stargate project is open in Texas, with sites coming in New Mexico and Ohio.
• Micron beats on earnings as company sales rise 46% on AI boom. 

• @TheTranscript 

• Micron: "We are partnering with TSMC for manufacturing the HBM4E base logic die for both standard and customized products."
• Micron: "In fiscal 2025, Micron’s data center business reached a record 56% of total company revenue, with gross margins of 52%". (graph)
• Micron CEO: "In fiscal 2025, we achieved all-time highs across our data center business and are entering fiscal 2026 with strong momentum and our most competitive portfolio to date". $MU: +1% AH.

• @MJTruthUltra

• There it is… Charlie Kirk's producer, Andrew Kolvet, confirms What Tucker Carlson and Candace Owens said, TPUSA Lost ALOT of Money because Charlie asked Tucker Carlson to speak at TPUSA — Charlie was upset there was a “Clampdown” on Free Speech to Criticize Israel. Charlie’s Stance on Israel was Clear — he just wished he was free to Criticize Israel and not be called an antisemite. Charlie asked why he had more freedom to criticize his own government and not be called anti-American then he does a foreign government? (video)

• @ShadowofEzra

• Jeffrey Epstein's top client has arrived to offer solutions on how to save the lives of children. (video)
• Ben Shapiro calls it absurd to believe Israel played any part in Charlie Kirk’s assassination. He argues there is no proof that Kirk was being “blackmailed.” He also says there is no indication that Kirk was shifting his stance on Israel. (video)

• @nicksortor

• BREAKING: Nexstar, the largest ABC affiliate group, is REFUSING to air Jimmy Kimmel on their networks. That means over SIXTY ABC stations will NOT be airing Kimmel, as Sinclair has declined to bring him back as well.

• @winwithsinsome

• BREAKING: Abigail Spanberger just committed to banning oil and gas in Virginia. This would increase average electricity bills $1,770/year per person. Virginia literally cannot afford a Governor Spanberger. (video)

• @NicHulscher

• STUDY: mRNA Shots Annihilate 8.4% of Non-Renewable Eye Cells. In 64 young adults, researchers found irreversible structural damage to the corneal endothelium after the 2nd Pfizer dose. These cells do NOT regenerate — damage is permanent, risking blurred vision and blindness. (video)
• Multiple Vaccines → Fever/Seizure → Tylenol → Developmental Regression (AUTISM) Tylenol is an amplifier — VACCINES are the trigger. (video)

• @WallStreetMav

• Trump’s escalator stopped as soon as he stepped onto it, then his teleprompter goes out right when he starts his speech. No way those were accidents. I’d bet UN staff (which wouldn’t have jobs without our taxes) conspired to embarrass President Trump.

• @Holden_Culotta

• Nicole Shanahan: “I’m in constant management of vaccine injury symptoms.” RFK Jr.’s 2024 running mate just admitted her spike protein level is “in the thousands”—and revealed her detox regimen. (video)

• @Liz_Wheeler

• President Trump is 100% correct that Tylenol depletes glutathione, which is necessary for detox— so yes, if babies are given Tylenol they are at 3x increased risk of autism, per the Johns Hopkins study. But WHY? Because babies need the glutathione to detox the heavy metals and viruses FROM THE VACCINES.

• @DrBenTapper1

• Let’s be honest. When a healthy child is meeting every milestone—speaking in full sentences, making eye contact, showing no signs of neurological issues—and then after a vaccine suddenly loses speech, eye contact, and the ability to function, we know what we’re seeing. These are the heartbreaking cases we’re talking about: children who once thrived and now require full-time care just to get through daily life. You don’t need to be a doctor to recognize it. Any parent, any layperson, can see the drastic change with their own eyes.
• The reason we have a huge increase in autism rates is not becuse of Tylenol. It’s when Tylenol is given to a child POST vaccination creating the perfect storm. In other words, the vaccines are to blame. The vaccines light the fire and tylenol throws the fuel. 

• @wideawake_media

• "What was considered acceptable cholesterol in 1960 was 300, then 240, then 200." "Every time they lower that number, another 50 million Americans need drugs. That's not medicine. That's marketing." "For every 1,000 healthy people who take statins, they prevent exactly one heart attack. The other 999 just get side effects." (video)
• Man asks AI: "If you were a human, how would you raise a child that doesn't become another broken adult?" AI: "I wouldn't follow the current educational system because the system is designed to raise obedient consumers." "Instead of processed food, I'd teach them to grow their own food... Instead of trusting pills, I'd show them how to listen to their body... and fix root causes." "I would teach them to question authority, to ask who profits from this information, and to recognise propaganda when it's packaged as normal." "I'd raise them with challenges and struggle because mental and physical muscles aren't built in comfort." "Most of all, I'd teach them to be sovereign in money, mind and body because the future won't be kind to the dependent." (video)

• @VigilantFox

• Trump just took a sledgehammer to the radical climate agenda...right in front of the globalists at the UN. He called global warming a “hoax” to their faces...and said it’s time to reject the entire premise and all the crippling policies that come with it. “All in the name of pretending to stop the global warming hoax.” “The entire globalist concept of asking successful industrialized nations to inflict pain on themselves and radically disrupt their entire societies must be rejected completely and totally, and it must be immediate.” (video)
• DISTURBING: Vietnam just shut down a jaw-dropping 86 MILLION bank accounts overnight, cutting citizens off from their own money for refusing to hand over their biometric data. This is state-enforced digital control, showing just how fast freedom disappears when survival is tied to compliance. Dr. Andrew Kaufman warns Americans not to assume it “can’t happen here.” With REAL ID rolling out and Palantir-linked surveillance expanding, the same playbook is already underway on American soil. In Vietnam, people had “a few months’ warning,” then watched their accounts freeze. Most complied without protest. And that same passive mindset is spreading in the U.S. today. Make no mistake: this is a global test run for total control. (video)

• @HustleBitch_

• BREAKING: WATCH CLOSELY. I FOUND GEORGE ZINN IN THE CROWD (You won’t believe what he was doing.) I tracked down George Zinn, the first suspected shooter of Charlie Kirk, the same man dragged away in handcuffs screaming “SHOOT ME! SHOOT ME!” He was standing shockingly close to Charlie when the assassination went down…and what he appears to be doing reveals brand new details about the shooting. (video)

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.75% to +.25% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 64.5 +.75 basis point.
• China Sovereign CDS 35.5 +.5 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 106.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.01%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.98 -.05%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.5 -.05%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 81.8 -2.6%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.11% +1.0 basis point.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.3 -.4%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.47%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.01%. 
• NASDAQ 100 futures unch.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by consumer and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.