Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Higher Long-Term Rates, Escalating Russia/NATO Tensions, Diminished Fed Rate-Cut Odds, Consumer Discretionary/Pharma Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.3 -.32%
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.17% +2.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.98% +2.0 basis points

• China Iron Ore Spot 105.8 USD/Metric Tonne -.1%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 32.5 euros/megawatt-hour +1.7%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 26.1 +17.2 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 10.7 -.4 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 5.4 +.3 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(13 of 500 reporting) +16.6% -1.4 percentage points
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 293.26 +.23:  Growth Rate +12.1% +.4 percentage point, P/E 22.6 unch.
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.51% +1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 489.43 -.95: Growth Rate +20.5% +1.6 percentage points, P/E 33.0 +.2
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .72 +2.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.54 -56.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 2.7 -.4
• US Yield Curve 50.5 basis points (2s/10s) -4.0 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.3% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 34.8% -.3 percentage point

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.99% unch.: CPI YoY +3.0% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.75 +1.0 basis point
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.39 +1.0 basis point
• Highest target rate probability for Dec. 10th FOMC meeting: 60.4% (-12.9 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 28th meeting: 51.5%(-.4 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 4.0-4.25%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -339 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -23 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +148 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my utility sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -1.3%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Disk Drives -2.4% 2) Airlines -2.1% 3) Pharma -1.9%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• DEI, CCCX, IREN, MMSI, BE, ACMR, COHU, LTBR, SYRE, CRWV, SNDK, SOC, FCX, ADUR, MIR, ORCL, CLSK, CAI, LTM, KBR, HNGE, BKKT, JBL, QBTS, KALV, QUBT, MSTR, ICUI, IONQ, SERV, KVYO, HUT, OKLO, WS, FORD, MBX, BETR, CIFR and KMX

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) RIG 2) XLB 3) VNET 4) CAPR 5) KMX

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) KMX 2) RIG 3) OKLO 4) TROX 5) KBR

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) ARKK 2) XLK 3) KRE 4) IGV 5) XLV

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -.6%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Computer Services +2.8% 2) Electrification +2.2% 3) Social Media +1.2%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• VNET, LEU, AMRC, MP, SLDE, DQ, INTC, LQDA, CLPT, VERA, KC, IDR, XPEV, EPSM, IBM, GH, MAZE, MLKN, SBSW, LITE, SSRM, USAR, RBRK, ALB, BILI, BHP and KOD

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) XLB 2) RIG 3) KMX 4) SGML 5) NTR

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) LAC 2) PEPG 3) EVAX 4) QURE 5) EPOW

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) VGT 2) AIQ 3) XLP 4) FDN 5) SMH

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• None of note

After the Close: 

• None of note

Economic Releases 

6:00 am EST

• Bloomberg Sept. US Economic Survey. 

8:30 am EST

• Personal Income for Aug. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.4% gain in July.
• Personal Spending for Aug. is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.5% gain in July.
• The Core PCE Price Index MoM for Aug. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.2% gain in July. 

10:00 am EST

• Final Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment readings for Sept. 

11:00 am EST

• The Kansas City Fed Services Activity Index for Sept. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Bowman speaking, Fed's Barkin speaking, Fed's Bostic speaking, Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 update, weekly US Baker Hughes rig count, (NVDA) Robot Learning Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +27.3% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 14.2 -.9
• 9 Sectors Declining, 2 Sectors Rising
• 32.6% of Issues Advancing, 67.4% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .62 -20.5% 
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$124.0M
  
• 29 New 52-Week Highs, 60 New Lows
• 59.8% (-1.2%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 55.7 -9.3

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 86.0 +1.4%
• US High-Yield All Sectors OAS Index 326.6 +.6% 
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 257.4 -.1%
  
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 163.8 +.2%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 54.0 (NEUTRAL from GREED) -3.0
• 1-Day Vix 9.6 +2.1%
  
• Vix 16.5 +2.0%
  
• Total Put/Call .89 +4.7%

Thursday Watch

Around X:

• @Business 

• Speculators seeking to profit from the selloffs racing through Argentina’s markets were stopped dead in their tracks by a powerful investor willing to take the opposite side of the trade: The US government.
• HSBC said it’s achieved a world-first breakthrough in deploying quantum computing in financial markets, as a race intensifies among some of Wall Street’s biggest firms to embed the cutting-edge tech in their daily operations. 
• US stocks are screamingly expensive when viewed from a historical perspective, but strategists at Bank of America say the sky-high valuations may be warranted.
• From tech behemoths to power producers, companies have pushed US corporate-bond sales to historically high levels this month as firms capitalize on falling borrowing costs and investor demand.
• Pharmacy middlemen are working on a proposal to voluntarily change some of their business practices in an effort to avoid new regulation from the Trump administration, according to sources
  .  
• The Trump administration will soon provide additional financial aid to American farmers, with Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins saying an announcement could come “perhaps in the next couple of weeks."
   
• The Trump administration plans to continue using emergency authority to stop coal-fired power plants from retiring, according to sources
  . 
• The Trump administration launched investigations into imports of robotics, industrial machinery and medical devices, setting the stage for fresh duties.
• Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly said further interest-rate cuts are likely needed, but the US central bank should approach those with caution.
• United States Steel approved a $300 million investment to upgrade some of its facilities, advancing part of an $11 billion commitment by Nippon Steel after its takeover of the storied American steelmaker earlier this year.
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.
• Here's what you need to know to start your day.

• @ZeroHedge    

• The way Comey not only tried to destroy General Flynn and his family by framing him, but later mockingly bragged about it, remains one of the most disgraceful abuses ever committed by an FBI director. He deserves prison for that alone. (video)
• *CHINA WILLING TO EXPAND PARTNERSHIP WITH GATES FOUNDATION: LI...of course! 
• If they shut down reddit, all the woke chatbots (pretty much all of them) will have nowhere to "train".
• Reddit shut down r/TheDonald, the most popular subreddit, and allows this.
  @alexisohanian should be dragged before Congress ASAP.  (pic)
• How Much Tariffs Is China Evading.
• MSM 'Forgets' They've Been Warning About Tylenol And Pregnancy For Over A Decade. (pic)
• How Many Immigrants Have Left The Country?
• Dems' NGO Empire Cracks: First Gates Foundation Dumps Arabella Network, Then The Atlantic Forced To Admit Left-Wing Terror.
• This Is The Number One Challenge That Americans Believe They Are Facing In 2025.
• Transgender Leftist Sentenced To 19 Years In Prison For Terror Attacks.
• The FBI can invent a plot to ‘kidnap’ the governor of Michigan and get a bunch of down on their luck guys to go along with it and then prosecute them, but they can’t infiltrate a single Antifa cell and just start rolling up very eager terrorists who don’t need encouragement.
• Trump To Sign EO Targeting 'Domestic Terror Networks' After "Despicable", "Targeted Attack" At ICE Facility.
• HOLY CRAP! VP JD Vance just UNLEASHED on Democrats for their violent rhetoric against ICE and law enforcement, calls out Gavin Newsom BY NAME. "YOU CAN GO STRAIGHT TO HELL, and you have NO PLACE in the political conversation in the United States!" "Because HERE'S WHAT HAPPENS! When Democrats like Gavin Newsom say these people are 'part of an authoritarian government.' When they lie about who they're arresting...what they're doing is encouraging crazy people to go and commit VIOLENCE." "You don't have to agree with our policies. But if your political rhetoric encourages violence against our law enforcement, you can go STRAIGHT TO HELL!" WOW! (video)
• Intel Seeking Investment From Apple As Part Of US-Backed Comeback.
• Bitcoin & Black Gold Bid But Big-Tech Buckles As Goldman Warns 'Dynamics Feel Stretched'. 

• @CNBC

• CNBC Daily Open: Rallies of individual stock couldn't push up major indexes.
• Asia-Pacific markets set for mixed open as investors sell tech names on Wall Street.
• Thursday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.
• Stock futures are little changed ahead of key jobs data: Live updates.
  

• @MarioNawful  

• OBAMA'S $2.2 BILLION SOLAR PLANT CLOSING AFTER YEARS OF FAILURE AND 6,000 BIRDS KILLED ANNUALLY. California's Ivanpah Solar Power Facility, which received $1.6 billion in federal loans under Obama, will shut down in 2026 after failing to meet energy targets while relying on natural gas. The Mojave Desert facility's computer-controlled mirrors became obsolete against cheaper solar panels. Association of Avian Veterinarians reports 6,000 birds fried annually flying through reflected beams. American Energy Institute CEO: "Ivanpah stands as testament to waste and inefficiency of government subsidized energy schemes... never lived up to promises." (video)

• @LauraLoomer

• NEW: SecretService Busts Sophisticated Network That Could Possibly Be A Foreign Influence Network To Spread Misinformation And Organize Foreign Funded Protests And Propaganda. Federal authorities announced Tuesday that Secret Service agents have dismantled a clandestine network of electronic devices across NYC capable of disrupting the city’s cellphone network while simultaneously facilitating anonymous assassination threats against senior U.S. officials and supporting criminal activities. (pic)

• @newstart_2024 

• The unelected EU Chief, Ursula von der Leyen, just unveiled her blueprint for silencing dissent: an "EU Democracy Shield." She frames it as a noble fight against "disinformation." But listen closely to what she's really saying. What she says: We need a "European Center for Democratic Resilience" to monitor "information manipulation." We need a "Media Resilience Program" to support "independent journalism." What she means: The EU bureaucracy is centralizing the power to define what is "true" and what is "misinformation." They will create a ministry of truth, branding any narrative that challenges their authority as a threat to democracy. (video)
• The Unethical Circle of Vaccine Science, Exposed by Its Own Architects. A stunning admission is playing out in plain sight. Former FDA Chief and Pfizer board member Scott Gottlieb is making his second media tour, laser-focused on one thing: stopping RFK Jr. from linking the aluminum adjuvant in vaccines to autism. Why such intense, specific concern from a man at the very heart of the pharmaceutical industry? The reason reveals an unforgivable flaw at the foundation of modern vaccine science. As highlighted in recent hearings, there has never been a placebo-controlled safety study on injected aluminum adjuvants. You will not find a study where one group gets aluminum and another gets saline. The official reason? It would be "unethical." Think about that. (video)
• German MEP Christine Anderson issues a stark warning: the architecture for a totalitarian surveillance state is being constructed around us, not in a distant future, but right now. In a powerful interview, Anderson explains that global elites are "ramping things up in a very aggressive manner" because they know their window of opportunity is closing as more people awaken. This very acceleration, however, is what is opening the eyes of the public. She points to a coordinated assault on freedom from multiple angles:

• @JamesOKeefeIII

• WORLD EXCLUSIVE BOMBSHELL: Senior DOJ Epstein Investigator Reveals ‘Epstein Was CIA’ — Confirms ‘R-pes Occurred While Bill Clinton Was on the Plane’ — Says of President Trump, "He’s Protecting a Lot of Other People… He’s Not Protecting Himself, Because There’s Nothing There". "I’ve interviewed all the victims, There's never been an instance where Trump was on a plane with these kids and the r-pes occurred. But that can't be said for Clinton. And it can't be said for others." “They [DOJ] didn't want to go after him [Epstein] because he's an asset for the United States and Israel”. "It's not talked about yet but, it's soon to come out that he [Epstein] was a CIA informant." (video)

• @Resist_CBDC

• "Don't get a Real ID, get a state ID, don't allow yourself to be passively dragged into this." "A passport card is a good thing to have ... it neutralizes the issue at the airport ... without collecting the extra data." "The reason they're lying ... they want everyone in the Real ID ... we don't acquiesce to them." (video)

• @ShadowofEzra

• Candace Owens reveals that a witness who filmed the rooftop shooter just before Charlie Kirk was killed says his account completely contradicts what the FBI told the public. The witness’s footage shows the gunshot came just seconds later, and as a firearms expert, he identified a smaller weapon firing a lightweight bullet. He also gave agents a detailed description of the assassin wearing tactical gear and a mask with the appearance of a foreign operative, but the FBI chose not to release any of it. (video)

• @HealthRanger

• What are UVU Police and Charlie's security guys handing off to each other in the moment after Charlie Kirk was shot? This footage is sourced originally directly from the University. "The handoff" is about to become the most explosive revelation of this entire tragic event... (video)
• Watch this. 100% inside job. Nobody would react like this if they were surprised by the shooting and wanted to help. These guys are rapidly scrubbing the crime scene. It's now obvious. (video)

• @songpinganq

• Facial recognition and a valid vaccine passport are required to enter supermarkets in China. ——If you are not vaccinated, you are banned from buying food. This is how Chinese government uses Digital ID to control people. (video)

• @TheRiftTV

• Nobody’s Watching! Kimmel’s Show Tanks as 75% Shun Late-Night Flop.

• @MazeLove14

• JUST NOW: Candace Owen’s reveals a suspicious pattern from her continued investigation into the Charlie Kirk assassination! She says when investigating all of the original videos that went viral on social media on 9/10 — she noticed that a lot of the eye witnesses and the people that were sharing those videos weren’t exactly random college students from UVU, but rather people that either had strong ties to government or strong ties to Turning Point USA. (video)

• @dom_lucre

• BREAKING: There is now an AI that allows you to swap your face during FaceTime calls. This is horrible for millions of reasons. (video)

• @wideawake_media

• "It's the ultimate tool of slavery." Dr. Mike Yeadon, former vice president at Pfizer, on digital ID. "If you sign up for digital ID... your digital ID will only remain valid if you comply with the conditions of validity." "One of them will be, have you had your latest recommended or mandated jabs?" "And so... the digital ID will lose validity unless you roll your sleeve up." "But you won't be able to escape that, because all your money will also be associated with your digital ID... If you're not vaccinated... it will say, sorry, transaction refused." (video)

• @VigilantFox

• Joe Rogan raises SERIOUS questions about the old man who claimed he killed Charlie Kirk. “There’s a lot of weird shit going on with this.” Rogan pointed out that George Zinn, 71, had also been tied to the 2013 Salt Lake City Marathon bomb-threat case, questioning whether he was “insane” or “professionally insane.” And just after claiming he killed Kirk, Zinn was arrested for child p*rn. “Well, now you can’t interview him,” Rogan said. (video)

• @gc22gc

• BANNON: At The guy fought in Ukraine, came back, and tried to assassinate Trump for not supporting Ukraine. Guilty in hours. Right after the verdict he tried to stab himself in court. Here’s my concern. They want to rush this as a “lone murder” case and not look deeper. I don’t buy it. He had no money. How did he get from Ukraine to Palm Beach with high-powered weapons, hiding in bushes at Trump’s golf course? He knew Trump would be there without it being announced. He didn’t act alone. Too many unanswered questions. (video)

• @I_Am_JohnCullen

• Why would the communication records from Provo airport be classified, and "used for an ongoing investigation" into a transsexual furry with a Mauser 98 that lives 3.5 hours south?

• @OliLondonTV

• Ben Affleck and Jennifer Garner’s daughter demands MASK MANDATES at the UN. “We can and we must do that again. We can recognize filtered air as a human right, intuitively as we recognize filtered water.” (video)

• @sophiadahl1

• Senator Marshall’s mic drop moment. The CDC’s obsession with forcing every vax on every child destroyed trust!! COVID mandates. A Hep B shot on day one of life!! Doctors expelling families who didn’t comply!! "You're forcing these vax on people that weren't ever really proven or justified that the benefits didn't outweigh the risk and you all sat there with your hands in your pockets and you let that happen." (video)

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.25% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 65.25 +.75 basis point.
• China Sovereign CDS 36.0 +.5 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 105.8 USD/Metric Tonne -.4%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.97 -.03%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.42 -.03%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 83.5 -1.6%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.14% -1.0 basis point.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.0 -.5%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.02%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.16%. 
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.17%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and real estate shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.