Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +7.2% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 17.0 +2.2
• 3 Sectors Declining, 8 Sectors Rising
• 62.0% of Issues Advancing, 35.7% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.32 +23.4% 
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$162.2M
  
• 113 New 52-Week Highs, 37 New Lows
• 65.6% (+.9%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 66.3 +1.2

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 85.3 +.1%
• US High-Yield All Sectors OAS Index 330.75 unch.
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 256.0 +.4%
  
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 167.0 +1.1%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 53.0 (NEUTRAL) +1.0
• 1-Day Vix 8.7 -23.2%
  
• Vix 16.6 -3.8%
  
• Total Put/Call .76 -16.5%

Wednesday Watch

Around X:

• @Business 

• Japan’s wages rose at the slowest pace in three months with real pay extending its falling streak, highlighting a challenge for newly elected ruling party leader Sanae Takaichi who has pledged to address the increase in living costs.
• The US Senate confirmed Ben Black to lead the International Development Finance Corp., placing the son of billionaire Leon Black at the helm of a lending agency that has become central to several of President Donald Trump’s major initiatives.
• The Elon Musk-backed artificial intelligence startup xAI is raising more financing than initially planned to bring its ongoing funding round to $20 billion.
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.
• Here's what you need to know to start your day.

• @ZeroHedge

• *NZ CUTS BENCHMARK INTEREST RATE BY 50BPS TO 2.5%; EST. 2.75%. The global race to the bottom is back.
• Eerie Silence: Bloomberg's Anti-Gun Alliance Yet To Condemn Democrat Who Fantasized About Shooting GOP Colleague.
• NEW from ⁦@lukerosiak⁩: The man arrested by DC police on Sunday outside a mass in honor of the Supreme Court had hundreds of explosive devices…and a manifesto suggesting he was targeting both the Supreme Court and Catholics.  
• Ukrainian Drones Reach Western Siberia In Furthest Attack Of Entire War.
• As Israelis Mourn Two Years Since Oct.7, Houthis Attack Eliat With At Least 4 Drones.
• CDC Endorses Standalone Chickenpox Vaccination For Younger Children.
• UBS S&T: "excess flow showed ~50 bn of selling today, while UBS high touch cash desk noted hedge funds heavily skewed to sell but long onlys remained better to buy." 
• If Mamdani Wins, The Gig (Work) Is Up.
• BREAKING: CIA just declassified documents that reveal that then-Vice President Biden intervened to suppress an internal report exposing alleged corruption by his family in Ukraine — and reportedly pressured to remove a Ukrainian official who had uncovered wrongdoing. Biden provoked the war in Ukraine to cover up his family’s corruption. The truth is coming out — and justice must follow. 
• Many federal entities were AWARE of what the Bidens were doing. The DOJ, FBI, SEC, IRS, Treasury & now the CIA had evidence the Bidens were selling influence to enrich the family and Joe tried to cover it up. They did NOTHING. Americans deserve better. Transparency is back. 
• Israeli Families Express Optimism For Peace On 2nd Anniversary Of Oct. 7 Attack.
• Gold Futs Top $4000 For First Time As Goldman Says It's All Just A 'Short Fiat' Trade; Big-Tech & BTC Slip After ORCL Angst.  

• @CNBC

• CNBC Daily Open: Gold skeptics are from Mars, investors are from Earth.
• The global M&A engine is roaring, fueled by megadeals and rate-cut bets.
• Asia markets set to open higher after World Bank raises regional growth forecast.
• Jensen Huang explains why Nvidia's latest partnership with OpenAI is different.
• ‘The demand for computing power, data storage, is tremendous,’ says @DellTech CEO @MichaelDell, adding that AI demand is very solid.
• Wednesday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session. 
• Stock futures were little changed after S&P 500 snaps 7-day win streak: Live updates.
• They will be 'wonderfully profitable' — Nvidia CEO on Oracle's reported GPU profit squeeze. 

• @WSJ 

• French democracy wasn’t built for the crisis that’s enveloping the presidency of Emmanuel Macron.

• @MarioNawful

• CANDACE OWENS ACTIVATES DEAD MAN'S SWITCH. Owens says sealed package with texts, emails, videos and legal documents sent to trusted contacts: "Every political figure involved will be publicly named if I suddenly die." (video)

• @JackPosobiec

• Vindman is now re-endorsing Jay Jones after he called for the children of Republicans to be killed. Are you paying attention yet?

• @GenFlynn

• Charlie Kirk was assassinated only a few weeks back, and the American people are still being kept in the dark. There are too many unanswered questions, and the official story doesn’t hold water. We’re told a 22-year-old acted alone, a “lone wolf” who somehow managed to compose a flawless text, handle a weapon with expert precision, and carry out the attack without any help or oversight. I’ve spoken with people who know what they’re talking about, snipers, ballistics experts, weapons specialists, and analysts who’ve reviewed the footage firsthand. Every one of them points to inconsistencies that cannot be ignored. (video)

• @JasonJournoDC

• NEW: Ex-Biden Official Meghan Hays *HAMMERS* Jay Jones over "DISGUSTING" texts. "It's abhorrent language. It's disgusting. He should not be in the race. It makes the Democratic Party look bad by not condemning this." (video)

• @HustleBitch_

• BILL GATES’ 2028 DEADLINE: OBEY OR BE ERASED. Bill Gates recently said that if you don’t have the Digital ID by 2028, you’ll be isolated from society. And in the UK, the nightmare’s already begun: “I’m tired. I’m sick and tired of fighting these bastards. But fight we must, because otherwise they’re going to bring in a digital ID, and once that’s in, a digital currency. We will have total surveillance over everything that we do and we say.” (video)

• @MAHA_Action

• Revolving door alert!! Peter Marks, the former FDA vaccine chief, just joined Eli Lilly to lead infectious disease research. From regulator to pharma insider, a story we seem to hear over and over. It’s ironic how the loudest critics of RFK Jr. and the MAHA movement are the same ones cashing in while Americans’ health keeps deteriorating.

• @BGatesIsaPsycho

• The Occupation Safety Health Administration told Employers not to report Covid Vaccine Injuries because it might create “Vaccine Scepticism”. Conspiracy Confirmed.

• @DerrickEvans4WV

• We have a Republican controlled Congress & not a single judge has been impeached. I’m so sick of spineless jelly back RINOs.

• @CartLandDavid

• A growing body of evidence suggests that the COVID-19 vaccines are causing unprecedented damage to human fertility—and the mainstream is silencing the victims. Fertility clinics are witnessing horrors they’ve never seen before: - Men’s sperm no longer swims. - Women’s eggs fail to develop into viable embryos. - Embryos that do form show alarming levels of non-organic contamination. The NEJM’s own Pfizer study (June 2021) revealed an 80% miscarriage rate in women vaccinated during their first or second trimester (0-20 weeks). Baseline miscarriage risk is 1 in 6—this is 7-8x higher. Dr. James Thorp confirms: (video)

• @annvandersteel

• Traitors are running our legislative body! Because of UNIPARTY
  @LeaderJohnThune the executive branch has been held hostage by slow rolling nominations and cow towing to Dems and RINOs (aka Uniparty). It’s time to remove the criminals. We must be prepared with real public servants to replace the criminals in DC. Trump’s EO to eliminate the machines will result in real elections November 2026. Will Americans be ready to serve?

• @Rothbard1776

• I think there a lot of people who are extremely concerned about just how much information Candace has. This isn’t the Brigitte Macron story. This is about one of her best friends who was assassinated in cold blood in front of the entire world. 
• 0 arrests of anyone with institutional power who committed crimes related to the COVID plandemic, the 2020 election, Jeffrey Epstein, Russia Hoax, January 6th, etc. 

• @RepRileyMoore

• Nigeria is the deadliest country in the world for Christians and the world stands by silently. That's why I'm urging @SecRubio to designate Nigeria as a Country of Particular Concern to unlock diplomatic levers to protect our brothers and sisters in Christ.

• @winwithwinsome

• If Abigail Spanberger doesn’t think Jay Jones should drop out, then she’s fine with what he said. It’s that simple. (video)

• @libsoftiktok

• BREAKING: Senator Tim Kaine (D) says he STILL SUPPORTS JAY JONES after text messages revealed Jones fantasized about shooting a Republican and his children. DISGUSTING. (video)

• @WCdispatch_

• Melody “Mel” Cartwright, candidate for Virginia district 48, stands for the murder of Republicans and their children in the arms of their mothers. She stands for it, “Period. End of statement.” This is the mainstream Democrat position. It is not just a few of them.

• @TheMagaKing2_0

• Pam Bondi has been handed overwhelming evidence: – The Russia hoax, exposed by Tulsi Gabbard. – Jack Smith’s illegal spying on sitting U.S. senators. – Mortgage fraud committed by Letitia James. – Mortgage fraud committed by Adam Schiff. – Mayor Brandon Johnson and Governor JB Pritzker openly defying federal law and calling for violence against ICE agents. And after all that, the only thing Pam Bondi has managed to do is indict James Comey for lying to Congress, no perp walk, no arrest, no mugshot. Nothing. What a joke.

• @JohnLeFevre

• A sitting Republican Congressman - Wesley Hunt - could ride the GOP gravy train for another 20+ years. He is a star. Instead, he is challenging another Republican - the corrupt, fake MAGA, swamp rat John Cornyn. This is how it's done. (video)

• @WCdispatch_

• WINSOME SEARS BLASTS RADICAL ABIGAIL SPANBERGER’S SUPPORT OF JAY JONES. Any Democrat who continues to support Jay Jones ENDORSES his disgusting behavior. Either call for him to leave the race or we know where you stand. It’s that simple. (video)

• @BubbleBathGirl

• Illegals are being paid by Democrats to protest for them. In NYC at Washington Square Park you’ll see paid protesters gather for their instructions and to pick up their gear. It’s all fake. Even worse, illegals are on the payroll. Very revealing stuff. (video)

• @songpinganq

• Meanwhile tens of thousands young Chinese people are becoming homeless, Because they are blacklisted by Social Credit System. Once you are blacklisted, you are banned from using Digital wallet WeChat. This makes it hard for you to receive salary. So you can't find a job. (video)

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.0% to unch. on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 64.0 +.75 basis point.
• China Sovereign CDS 39.0 +.75 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 104.1 USD/Metric Tonne +.1%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.93 -.24%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.3 -.1%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 85.4 +.3%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.13% unch.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.4 -.7%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.07%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.14%. 
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.17%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and consumer discretionary shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Lower into Final Hour on AI Tech Spending Worries, Technical Selling, Profit-Taking, Tech/Consumer Discretionary Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.34 -.08%
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.12% -3.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.91% -4.0 basis points

• China Iron Ore Spot 104.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.1%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 33.25 euros/megawatt-hour +.4%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 13.2 -.6 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 4.2 -2.9 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 6.3 -1.0 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(21 of 500 reporting) +11.1% -1.3 percentage points
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 294.37 +.06:  Growth Rate +12.5% unch., P/E 22.8 -.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.48% -1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 477.55 +.06: Growth Rate +17.5% unch., P/E 33.7 -.1
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .71 +4.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.31 -8.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 2.3 -.1
• US Yield Curve 55.25 basis points (2s/10s) -1.0 basis point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.8% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 36.2% -.4 percentage point

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.87% unch.: CPI YoY +2.99% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.74 +3.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.35 unch.
• Highest target rate probability for Dec. 10th FOMC meeting: 81.3% (-3.5 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 28th meeting: 54.6%(-2.2 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 4.0-4.25%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +830 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +46 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +180 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my industrial/consumer discretionary/tech/financial sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -1.0%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gambling -3.4% 2) Disk Drives -3.3% 3) Homebuilding -2.4%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• SEPN, LMND, AMKR, CHA, ACHR, SKE, GSRT, HOND, WOLF, KVYO, CSWC, CRWV, GILT, BTDR, GSAT, BKKT, PENG, NBIS, RDW, ORCL, MGA, BULL, OLN, ENVX, PLAB, BWA, SERV, FLUT, RKT, FRO, DKNG, CRDO, AMSC, SUPX, OPRA, F, STX, FLNC, IDR, AAOI, SEI, FORD, SANM, CRML and AEHR

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) KDP 2) FE 3) XLI 4) BAX 5) GSAT

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) AEHR 2) LCID 3) F 4) DOW 5) SMLR

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XBI 2) XLF 3) XLP 4) KBE 5) XLI

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -.3%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Electrification +3.4% 2) Computer Services +1.2% 3) Healthcare Providers +.9%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• BTQ, USAR, DGNX, BNC, CCCX, JHX, EAF, APP, TSSI, ORBS, FIG, NNE, RGC, AA, IE, SMTC, LEU, RGTI, AVXL, SOFI, AMD, OSCR, MESO, CLF, EQX, CNR, ARQQ, KVUE, PYPL, FIGR, BTU, AEXA and HSDT

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) BMEA 2) XLI 3) LAR 4) RVPH 5) KDP

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) DYN 2) AXIL 3) PLTR 4) SOFI 5) AMD

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) PPH 2) XLK 3) KRE 4) IXP 5) SMH

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• None of note

After the Close: 

• (AZZ)/1.57

Economic Releases 

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory gain of +497,000 barrels versus a +1,792,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -1,458,750 barrels versus a +4,125,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -904,750 barrels versus a +578,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall -1.23% versus a -1.6% decline prior.

2:00 pm EST

• FOMC Meeting Minutes.
• The Federal Budget Balance for Sept. is estimated at $50.0B versus -$344.8B in Aug. 

Upcoming Splits

• (BN) 3-for-2
• (BNT) 3-for-2 

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Barr speaking, Fed's Goolsbee speaking, Fed's Logan speaking, Fed's Kashkari speaking, 10Y T-Note auction, CB Employment Trends Index for Sept., weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI for Oct., (HON) investor day and the Roth Healthcare Opportunities Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST