Wednesday, October 15, 2025

Thursday Watch

Around X:

  • @Business 
  • @ZeroHedge
  • @CNBC
  • @MarioNawful
  • WESTERN EXECUTIVES STUNNED BY CHINA’S FULLY ROBOTIC FACTORIES. Executives from major Western automakers and green energy firms are returning from China shaken. They describe “dark factories” where robots run entire production lines — no lights, no humans, just automation. Ford warned that losing this race means no future for U.S. industry. Fortescue’s Andrew Forrest said he abandoned EV plans after seeing it firsthand: “There are no people, everything is robotic.” China’s automation surge isn’t about profit margins but survival in a shrinking labor force.
  • AGENCY SITS ON FINISHED REPORT SHOWING FOREVER CHEMICAL IN WATER DAMAGES HUMANS. Environmental Protection Agency scientists completed a toxicity report on PFNA (a forever chemical in 26 million Americans' drinking water) back in April. It found the stuff causes low birth weights, liver damage, and screws with male reproductive systems. The report was "completed and ready to post" in mid-April. It's now October. Still nothing. 
  • @WallStreetMav
  • @LibsOfTikTok
  • Speaker Mike Johnson BLASTS Democrats' insane list of demands to the end gov shutdown, which includes: -Half a BILLION for liberal news outlets. -$24.6 million for climate resilience in Honduras. -$13.4 million for civic engagement in Zimbabwe. -$3.9 million for LGBTQI+ democracy grants in the western Balkans. -$2.9 million for desert locust risk reduction in Africa. -$2 million for organizing for feminist democratic principles in Africa. THIS is what the Democrats are holding the American people hostage over. Unreal. (video)
  • @GuntherEagleman
  • @wideawake_media
  • @CatTurd2
  • @StephenM
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @BGatesIsAPsycho
  • @WinwithWinsome
  • @JackUnheard
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are +.25% to +1.25% on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 68.25 -1.25 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 44.0 -1.5 basis points.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 105.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.2%. 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.97 +.27%
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.32 +.04%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 78.7 +.1%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.02% unch.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.7 -.1%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.27%. 
  • S&P 500 futures -.03%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.04%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Stable Long-Term Rates, AI Infrastructure Build-Out Optimism, Short-Covering, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.31 +.27%
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.04 +1.0 basis point
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.95% +1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 104.5 USD/Metric Tonne -.6%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 31.8 euros/megawatt-hour +.1%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 12.0 +3.1 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -5.8 +1.9 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 5.1 +.1 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(39 of 500 reporting) +15.0% +2.0 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 295.24 +.08:  Growth Rate +12.8% unch., P/E 22.6 +.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.46% -2.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 479.97 +.48: Growth Rate +18.1% +.1 percentage point, P/E 33.7 +.1
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .41 -6.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.06 -43.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 4.4 +1.6 points
  • US Yield Curve 53.5 basis points (2s/10s) -.75 basis point
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.8% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 40.7% +.3 percentage point
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.87% unch.: CPI YoY +2.99% unch.
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.63 -1.0 basis point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.30 -1.0 basis point
  • Highest target rate probability for Dec. 10th FOMC meeting: 94.7% (+.3 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 28th meeting: 50.3%(+2.2 percentage points) chance of 3.25%-3.5%. (current target rate is 4.0-4.25%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +440 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -46 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +60 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slight Higher: On gains in my tech/utility/financial/consumer discretionary sector longs 
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then covered some
  • Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Small-Cap Growth +1.0%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Disk Drives +4.4% 2) Gold & Silver +3.7% 3) Semis +2.9%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • OMER, BTDR, TGEN, HI, NVTS, BETR, HSDT, KOD, AAOI, XNCR, BG, KRRO, AMPX, ICHR, SMR, SNDK, FLNC, CORT, TYRA, PMI, ARRY, IMNM, EDU, CECO, AMLX, ZVRA, AMD, DNA, HUT, FSLR, PZZA, PHAT, DOCN, SSRM, APLD, HLIO, CYRX, HMY, UCTT, RCUS, LENZ, NG, PLD, AEVA, JANX, NAMS, WRD, AG, AIP, SSTK, HOND, NXT, FLR, TAL, EQX, COHU, GPRE, SERV, KURA, CLSK, MANU, GHRS, QS, MS, GNRC, AIRS, BKSY, BMA, BEP, BTSG, PAM, SRAD, ALGM, BLFS, BE, UEC, BAC, CORZ, SEI, ARCT, ATAT, AMRC, GFI, AS, EOSE, SHLS, ENVX, CEG, POWI, POWL, GILT, SN, APGE, SHG, TTE, BACQ, DKNG, TGS, ESTA, LOGI and SKE
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) SANA 2) UROY 3) IRBT 4) VERI 5) OMER
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) AMD 2) BG 3) WATT 4) SMR 5) TRUE
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) XLF 2) SOXX 3) VGT 4) ARKK 5) XBI
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (BK)/1.77
  • (SCHW)/1.25
  • (CMC)/1.35
  • (KEY)/.38
  • (MTB)/4.43
  • (MAN)/.81
  • (MMC)/1.78
  • (SNA)/4.64
  • (TRV)/4.64
  • (USB)/1.13 
  • (SAM)/3.33
  • (MRTN)/.04
  • (TSM)/NA 
After the Close: 
  • (OZK)/1.66
  • (CSX)/.43
  • (IBKR)/.54 
Economic Releases 
8:30 am EST
  • Retail Sales Advance MoM for Sept. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.6% gain in Aug.
  • Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM for Sept. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.7% gain in Aug.
  • Retail Sales Ex Autos and Gas  for Sept. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.7% gain in Aug.
  • PPI Final Demand MoM for Sept. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a -.1% decline in Aug.
  • PPI Ex Food & Energy MoM for Sept. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a -.1% decline in Aug.
  • Philly Fed Business Outlook for Oct. is estimated to fall to 10.0 versus 23.2 in Sept. 
  • NY Fed Services Business Activity for Oct. 

10:00 am EST 

  • Business Inventories for Aug. is estimated unch. versus a +.2% gain in July. 
  • The NAHB Housing Market Index for Oct. is estimated to rise to 33.0 versus 32.0 in Sept. 

10:30 am EST

  • Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory gain of +129,750 barrels versus a +3,715,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -664,250 barrels versus a -1,601,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -941,000 barrels versus a -2,018,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall by -.88% versus a +1.0% gain prior.

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Miran speaking, Fed's Kashkari speaking, Fed's Bowman speaking, Fed's Waller speaking, Fed's Barr speaking, Fed's Barkin speaking, Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 update, IMF Meetings, Fed's weekly balance sheet report, (JEF) investor meeting, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, (ORCL) analyst meeting, (PL) investor day, (SCHW) business update call, (VEEV) investor day and the European Society of Medical Oncology Congress could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +12.1% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 17.9 +2.3
  • 2 Sectors Declining, 9 Sectors Rising
  • 64.9% of Issues Advancing, 33.8% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms 1.18 +43.9% 
  • Non-Block Money Flow +$53.6M
  • 125 New 52-Week Highs, 12 New Lows
  • 64.5% (+1.7%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 55.2 +1.5
Polymarket:
  • Will Congress pass a funding bill by Oct. 31st?  38.0% +5.0 percentage points
  • US tariff rate on China on Nov. 12th? 25-40% 70.0% +1.0 percentage points 
  • Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 16.0% unch.
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 79.8 +1.2%
  • US High-Yield All Sectors OAS Index 345.5 -15.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 247.7 -.8%
  • Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 170.0 +1.1%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 32.0 (FEAR) unch.
  • 1-Day Vix 14.4 -18.4%
  • Vix 20.1 -3.5%
  • Total Put/Call .70 +1.2%

Tuesday, October 14, 2025

Wednesday Watch

Night Trading 

  • Asian equity indices are unch. to +1.0% on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 69.5 +1.25 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 45.5 +.5 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 105.6 USD/Metric Tonne +.4%. 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.90 -.09%
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.22 +.02%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 78.2 -.8%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.02% -1.0 basis point.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.5 -.2%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.83%. 
  • S&P 500 futures +.07%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.07%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.