Thursday, October 16, 2025

Friday Watch

Around X:

  • @Business 
  • @ZeroHedge
  • @CNBC
  • @newstart_2024 
  • @stkirsch
  • @VigilantFox
  • @HustleBitch_
  • @MJTruthUltra
  • @wideawake_media
  • @TheIntelSCIF
  • HILLARY CLINTON couldn't be proven GUILTY by the FBI from her infamous email scandal without taking OBAMA down with her. Obama used a pseudonym to conduct communications over the same non-secure email system which tanked Hillary's entire email investigation. This is only the surface level, it gets worse. They covered it all up, blamed it on the Russians, and attempted to take down a sitting president through a taxpayer funded treasonous color revolution with our own intelligence agencies and FBI. The only problem is that there is more that they swept under the rug that many people paid with their lives to expose which allegedly include connections to Epstein, Benghazi, child trafficking and abuse, pay to play politics, money laundering, and numerous other illegal activities implementing many other deep state players. (pic)
  • @EricLDaugh
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @SenRonJohnson
  • @annvandersteel
  • @ChildrensHD
  • @elonmusk
  • @Liz_churchill10
  • KNOW YOUR ENEMY. “The next Pandemic will definitely get your attention…” -Bill Gates (2023). “All anti-vaxxers must be arrested…no exceptions…” -Dr. Peter Hotez (2024). “We’re definitely going to have another Pandemic…” -Dr. Fauci (2025).
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -1.25% to -.75% on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 70.5 +2.25 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 45.25 +1.25 basis points.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 104.6 USD/Metric Tonne -.3%. 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 9.0 +.23%
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.28 -.11%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 74.0 -.9%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 3.95% -2.0 basis points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 22.4 -.3%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.76%. 
  • S&P 500 futures -.35%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.37%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Lower into Final Hour on Regional Bank Credit Quality Concerns, Global Growth Worries, Technical Selling, Financial/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.3 +.04%
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 3.97 -5.0 basis points
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.94% -1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 104.3 USD/Metric Tonne -.6%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 32.4 euros/megawatt-hour +1.7%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 9.6 -2.4 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -6.0 -.2 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 4.6 -.5 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(49 of 500 reporting) +16.3% +1.3 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 295.56 +.32:  Growth Rate +12.9% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.6 +.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.47% +1.0 basis point
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 480.27 +.30: Growth Rate +18.2% +.1 percentage point, P/E 33.6 -.1
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .45 +4.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.15 +9.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 4.7 +.3 point
  • US Yield Curve 54.5 basis points (2s/10s) +1.0 basis point
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.8% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 40.4% -.3 percentage point
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.87% unch.: CPI YoY +2.99% unch.
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.62 -1.0 basis point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.28 -2.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for Dec. 10th FOMC meeting: 88.9% (-5.3 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 28th meeting: 57.5%(+7.4 percentage points) chance of 3.25%-3.5%. (current target rate is 4.0-4.25%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -220 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -50 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -114 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slight Lower: On losses in my financial/consumer discretionary/industrial sector longs 
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and took profits in my financial longs
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Small-Cap Value -2.3%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Regional Banks -5.6% 2) Alt Energy -5.1% 3) Insurance -3.5%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • INFY, CLF, TRV, MENS, CTRA, LTBR, HAL, PATH, AIG, BHF, CB, MTB, POWI, VBTX, KROS, KNSL, WTFC, HPQ, RF, FITB, GIG, SLDE, FBP, STOK, PNFP, COF, SLG, WBS, CBSH, IDR, TCBI, UAL, FNB, DBRG, EBC, BANC, ZBIO, MMC, ACHR, NAMS, JEF, SMR, ADUR, CRML, ASPI, HPE, NNE, UAMY, QUBT, SERV, CMC, KVUE, WAL, PL, UUUU, AMPX, FFIV, HOND, ZION, CLSK, EOSE, RGTI, CCCX, ARQQ and HSDT
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) NAMS 2) FLG 3) HPE 4) FBL 5) KEY
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) ZION 2) JEF 3) FFIV 4) IIIN 5) LAC
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) XLF 2) IGV 3) KRE 4) XLY 5) XLI

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth -.7%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Gold & Silver +2.8% 2) Electrification +1.7% 3) Shipping +1.3%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • PRAX, JBHT, PSNL, BTQ, GRAL, NVA, CYRX, DCTH, MUX, PGNY, TFIN, ARVN, SBSW, SION, KYIV, METC, EXK, WDC, PGNY, CAI, GFI, KNX, MU, EPAC, STX, AMRK, AVTR, SNA, VICR, EGO, WERN, AU, ASX, AMX, NEM, FWRD, CRM, ORCL, FNV, RYN, AEM, KT, HUBG, CLS, PCH, DEO, SNDR,  KRRO, ILMN, B, FN, BVN, AGI, AG, DNLI, COO, SA and HMY
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) ALE 2) KYIV 3) HOLX 4) MTN 5) SLI
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) PRAX 2) JBHT 3) MU 4) PGNY 5) STX
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) XBI 2) CQQQ 3) SMH 4) XLU 5) XLP
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (ALLY)/1.00
  • (AXP)/4.00
  • (ALV)/2.08
  • (CMA)/1.31
  • (FITB)/.86
  • (HBAN)/.37
  • (RF)/.60
  • (SLB)/.66
  • (STT)/2.64
  • (TFC)/.99 
After the Close: 
  • None of note
Economic Releases 
8:30 am EST
  • Housing Starts for Sept. is estimated to rise to 1320K versus 1307K in Aug.
  • Building Permits for Sept. is estimated to rise to 1343K versus 1330K in Aug.
  • The Import Price Index MoM for Sept. is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.3% gain in Aug.
  • The Import Price Index ex Petrol MoM for Sept. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.2% gain in Aug.
  • The Export Price Index MoM for Sept. is estimated unch. versus a +.3% gain in Aug. 

4:00 pm EST

  • Net Long-Term TIC Flows for Aug.

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 update, European Society of Medical Oncology Congress, IMF meetings and the weekly US Baker Hughes oil rig count could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Afternoon Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +21.9% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 15.0 -2.9
  • 8 Sectors Declining, 3 Sectors Rising
  • 35.2% of Issues Advancing, 62.3% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms 1.17 -7.9% 
  • Non-Block Money Flow +$37.7M
  • 111 New 52-Week Highs, 47 New Lows
  • 63.0% (-1.3%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 51.9 -3.3
Polymarket:
  • Will Congress pass a funding bill by Oct. 31st?  23.0% -15.0 percentage points
  • US tariff rate on China on Nov. 12th? 25-40% 70.0% unch.
  • Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 16.0% unch.
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 77.2 -1.8%
  • US High-Yield All Sectors OAS Index 353.5 +8.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 245.8 -.5%
  • Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 171.2 +1.1%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 27.0 (FEAR) -5.0
  • 1-Day Vix 19.4 +13.4%
  • Vix 23.0 +11.4%
  • Total Put/Call .86 +26.5%