Stocks Sightly Higher into Final Hour on Lower Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Technical Buying, Consumer Discretionary/Industrial Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.2 -.4%
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 3.96% -2.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.87% -2.0 basis points

• China Iron Ore Spot 103.9 USD/Metric Tonne +.33%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 32.2 euros/megawatt-hour +1.5%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 11.1 +.3 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -4.1 -.6 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 10.6 +.6 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(78 of 500 reporting) +12.9% -2.1 percentage points
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 296.47 +.11:  Growth Rate +13.2% unch., P/E 22.8 +.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.48% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 482.18 +.61: Growth Rate +18.7% +.2 percentage point, P/E 34.1 +.1
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .54 +11.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.28 +15.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 3.9 -.6 point
• US Yield Curve 50.5 basis points (2s/10s) -1.75 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.9% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 39.8% +.2 percentage point

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.87% unch.: CPI YoY +2.99% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.58 -2.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.28 +2.0 basis points
• Highest target rate probability for Dec. 10th FOMC meeting: 94.5% (-4.3 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 28th meeting: 55.4%(+.4 percentage point) chance of 3.25%-3.5%. (current target rate is 4.0-4.25%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +210 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -89 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +102 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/consumer discretionary sector longs 
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -.5%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver -9.2% 2) Alt Energy -3.0% 3) Shipping -1.4%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• OPRA, BMI, CADE, GKOS, PM, FNV, PCRX, PHYS, CEF, GLPG, GSIT, WPM, AUGO, MUX, HOND, UAMY and CLF

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) LAZR 2) EXK 3) BRR 4) GM 5) RANI

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) NEM 2) B 3) METC 4) AEM 5) QMCO

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) IBB 2) XLV 3) XLP 4) IHI 5) XHB

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth +.6%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Electrification +2.7% 2) Oil Service +2.7% 3) Homebuilding +1.9%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• VICR, GM, SION, AVDL, EOSE, HAL, WBD, ARCT, RTX, CBLL, FWRD, GLXY, EPAM, DHR, PRAX, KVYO, BILI, MMM, TAL, KOD, LULU, SPHR, EDU, TEAM, F, APLS, U, PEGA, ROCK, CMC, CCK, FTK, GOF, OCLS, STLD, RLI, GRRR, CRM, PMI, MTUS, GEOS, KO, RGEN, MESO, STLA, OC, DOCU, TGLS, MCS, EXEL, LII, BWIN, TWST, MGA, HOLX, SSTK and IQV

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) MMM 2) REI 3) IEF 4) GM 5) CLOV

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) DHR 2) MMM 3) RTX 4) EPAM 5) GRRR

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLU 2) GNR 3) KRE 4) XLF 5) XLK

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (APH)/.79
• (T)/.54
• (AVY)/2.33
• (BSX)/.71
• (CME)/2.63
• (GEV)/1.72
• (HLT)/2.06
• (LII)/6.83
• (MHO)/4.36
• (NTRS)/2.26
• (NVR)/109.36
• (TDY)/5.47
• (TMO)/5.50
• (VRT)/.98
• (WGO)/.53  

After the Close: 

• (AA)/.01
• (CCI)/1.05
• (FE)/.74
• (GGG)/.74
• (IBM)/2.45
• (KMI)/.29
• (KNX)/.37
• (LRCX)/1.22
• (LVS)/.62
• (MEDP)/3.53
• (ORLY)/.83
• (RJF)/2.83
• (RS)/3.68
• (RHI)/.43
• (SAP)/1.75
• (TSLA)/.55
• (URI)/12.30
• (WH)/1.44 

Economic Releases 

10:30 am EST 

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory gain of +2,105,750 barrels versus a +3,524,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -1,963,500 barrels versus a -267,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -2,782,950 barrels versus a -4,529,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall by -.38% versus a -6.7% decline prior. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Barr speaking, 20Y T-Bond auction, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, (ROAD) analyst day and the Maxim Growth Summit could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +1.6% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 17.9 +1.7
• 4 Sectors Declining, 7 Sectors Rising
• 65.1% of Issues Advancing, 32.9% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.52 +31.0% 
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$49.7M
  
• 61 New 52-Week Highs, 16 New Lows
• 64.7% (+1.7%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 56.0 +1.7

Polymarket:

• Will Congress pass a funding bill by Oct. 31st?  29.0% -8.0 percentage points
• US tariff rate on China on Nov. 12th? 25-40% 69.0% unch.
• Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 17.0% unch.
• US-Venezuela military engagement by Dec. 31st 45.0% -3.0 percentage points 

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 81.5 +2.2%
• US High-Yield All Sectors OAS Index 351.75 +.25 basis point
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 251.0 +1.3%
  
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 168.7 -.5%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 30.0 (FEAR) -1.0
• 1-Day Vix 10.0 -8.9%
  
• Vix 18.0 -1.3%
  
• Total Put/Call .85 unch.

Tuesday Watch

Around X:

• @Business 

• The Trump administration warned China not to retaliate against foreign companies helping the US to develop critical industries, after Beijing last week sanctioned the US units of a South Korean shipping giant. 
• Global investors who poured billions into China’s property market are now staring at steep losses and fears of a "lost decade". 
• Japanese stocks look poised to extend record highs Tuesday as investors wager that a new government to be led by Sanae Takaichi will maintain expansionary fiscal policy. 
• South Korea’s early exports advanced in October, aided by resilient semiconductor demand even as US tariffs weighed on momentum and holidays created distortions.
• Amazon Web Services says its cloud services are operating normally after an almost 15-hour outage. 
• Zions Bancorp said its profit topped analyst estimates despite a $50 million loss from an alleged fraud tied to a commercial real estate investor group in Southern California. 
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.
• Here's what you need to know to start your day.

• @ZeroHedge

• Last time the Nasdaq was at a record, the market was overbought. Ten days later, we are again at all time highs, and the RSI is not even at 60. (graph)
• Who's Most Affected By Federal Cuts To DEI And EBT.
• The Signal/Wikipedia/NPR class believe it’s okay to lie as long as it’s in service of what they consider to be “the greater good.” These are the people who want a monopoly on education, speech, and knowledge. “Our reverence for the truth might have become a distraction.”  (video)
• As long as this is true, ChatGPT and Google will never be able to compete with Grok on a long enough timeline. Water seeks its own level. 
• Democrats doing everything in their power to go extinct first. (graph)
• HOLY CRAP! CNN reveals the devastating news that the Schumer federal shutdown not only HASN'T HARMED President Trump's public support... ...his approval rating has INCREASED! 
• New Generation Of Industries Emerges In Texas As Rare Earths Race Ignites.
• CORRUPTION WATCH: Judge Ted Chuang, an Obama-appointed anti-Trump judge, has been assigned the case against John Bolton. He already ruled against
  @elonmusk and DOGE, and against President Trump when he righteously implemented the travel ban. I filed Articles of Impeachment on this judicial hack MONTHS ago. This is not good. 
• Gigantic Muslim 'Planned Community' Meets Resistance From Texas AG.
• Everything Is Bid...  

• @CNBC

• Asia-Pacific markets set to open higher after Wall Street gains; Japan's parliamentary vote in focus.
• Stock futures are little changed after stocks rally to start the week: Live updates.
• Tuesday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.

• @WSJ 

• Most Americans don’t know his name. But he is one of the most influential American-born Israeli politicians in the nation’s history and has been key to maintaining U.S. support for Israel.

• @MarioNawful

• TRUMP: "VOTE SEARS IN VIRGINIA, CIATTARELLI IN NEW JERSEY". Trump said he hasn’t been deeply involved in Virginia, and has made his pick very clear. He praised Winsome Sears as "excellent" and called her Democratic opponent "a disaster." Trump: "I mean, I watched her in the debate. She couldn't answer the most basic question." He warned both Democratic candidates would drive energy prices through the roof, while claiming Republicans would cut them by 70, 80 percent. (video)
• JUDGE BEHIND FBI’S MAR-A-LAGO RAID REPORTEDLY HAD DIRECT LINKS TO EPSTEIN. Judge Bruce Reinhart greenlit the FBI’s raid on Trump’s Mar-a-Lago home in 2022. Quick fact: he also shared office space with none other than Jeffrey Epstein. Newly released House Oversight transcripts show Reinhart left the U.S. Attorney’s Office in early 2008 to work for Epstein while the sex-trafficking case was still open.  

• @newstart_2024 

• Del Bigtree delivers a devastating critique that strikes at the very heart of our medical establishment. Consider this: 75% of all SIDS deaths occur within just seven days of vaccination. A correlation this stark cannot be ignored, yet it is dismissed without investigation. (video)

• @MJTruthUltra

• UPDATE: Charlie Kirk. This is interesting and I’m not sure what to make of it… Over the weekend, it was discovered that Judge Tony Graf, a Gov Spencer Cox appointee, Issued a Gag Order, restricting attorneys, law enforcement, and the 3,000+ attendees. I understand attorneys, law enforcement, and maybe key witnesses, but 3,000 attendees??

• @ProjectConstitu

• WHISTLEBLOWER ALERT: Utah's Secret SOCIAL MEDIA CENSORSHIP PLOT To Bury Charlie Kirk's ASSASSINATION! Utah power players are SLIPPING THROUGH a sneaky social media bill (SB 194/HB 464 revisions, fast-tracked in 2025 session) under the radar—framed as "kid safety" but DESIGNED to let officials & suspects WIPE OUT any online talk of murder investigations. We're talking TOTAL CONTROL: censor posts, delete threads, shadowban truth-seekers exposing the web of corruption tied to Charlie Kirk's brutal hit in September!

• @TheIntelSCIF

• USAID was Funding BOTH the WUHAN Lab gain-of-function research & SMARTMATIC Election Systems. Coincidentally, the same Left-Wing Billionaires, NGOs, and USAID, also funded the 'NO KINGS' protest, aka, the Color Revolutions across America. (video)
• Why were the CLINTONS traveling to Epstein's ZORRO RANCH directly from The White House? The president of the United States and his wife were ditching Secret Service and going to a known pedoph*le's ranch that's in the middle of nowhere, to do what exactly? Epstein publicly stated that he wanted to "seed the human race" and is alleged to have an enormous 8,000 square foot underground lab under the ranch that Epstein victims have claimed to have been to and had experiments run on them. What kind of bizarre experiments and ritualistic practices were these Satanic billionaires really up to? 

• @EricLDaugh

• BREAKING: A mass shooting at the Atlanta Airport was just PREVENTED from happening. "Police found the felon inside the airport...and found the AR-15 while searching his car." "This felon did a FaceTime call telling family his plans to shoot up the Atlanta Airport...someone reportedly notified the police, who then found the suspect's car outside the airport. It was blocking traffic." Thank GOD. Good work to all law enforcement!

• @DrEliDavid

• Thank you Germany and UK for heroically sacrificing your economy to save the planet. (graph)

• @bennyjohnson

• The average reign for an English King is 18 years. Nancy Pelosi has been reigning in her office for nearly 40 years. Yet, Nancy Pelosi posted a video attacking Trump for being a ‘King’. Let’s break that down: - Trump has been in office for 4.5. - Pelosi has been in office for 38 years. - Trump is term-limited. - Pelosi is running *again* in 2026. - Trump’s lost billions in office. - Pelosi has made $300M insider trading. - Trump is that first person in his family to run for office. - Pelosi is a nepobaby who inherited everything from her rich, powerful, connected Democrat daddy. Nancy Pelosi’s ‘No Kings’ video might be the biggest self-own of the year. She can’t even snap the crown, then turns off the comments. Very Regal. Pelosi is not against Kings, she is just the American version of one. (video)

• @DiedSuddenly_

• Laura Delano just shared a stat about psychiatric medication use in America that will SHOCK you. “Right now, according to the CDC… there are about 65 million Americans on some kind of psychiatric drug.” “That’s basically one in four adults and one in ten kids.” (video)

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.5% to +1.5% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 69.5 -1.0 basis point.
• China Sovereign CDS 44.25 -1.0 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 103.8 USD/Metric Tonne +.3%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.98 -.11%
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.3 -.2%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 80.7 +1.2%.
• US 10-Year Yield 3.99% +1.0 basis point.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.1 -.4%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.26%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.21%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.26%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by technology and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.