Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Earnings Outlook Jitters, Escalating Russia-Ukraine War Angst, Momo Stock Profit-Taking, Alt Energy/Tech Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.2 -.04%
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 3.95% -1.0 basis point
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.87% unch.

• China Iron Ore Spot 103.9 USD/Metric Tonne -.3%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 31.8 euros/megawatt-hour -1.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 10.9 -.2 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -4.4 -.3 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 10.2 -.4 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(99 of 500 reporting) +14.2% +1.3 percentage points
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 296.56 +.09:  Growth Rate +13.3% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.6 -.2
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.50% +2.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 482.78 +.60: Growth Rate +18.8% +.1 percentage point, P/E 33.6 -.5
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .55 +1.0 basis point
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.20 -8.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 3.5 -.4 point
• US Yield Curve 50.75 basis points (2s/10s) +.25 basis point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.9% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 39.8% unch.

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.87% unch.: CPI YoY +2.99% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.61 +3.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.29 +1.0 basis point
• Highest target rate probability for Dec. 10th FOMC meeting: 97.1% (-1.0 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 28th meeting: 58.1%(-.7 percentage point) chance of 3.25%-3.5%. (current target rate is 4.0-4.25%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -480 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -81 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +68 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Lower: On losses in my tech/industrial/consumer discretionary/biotech sector longs 
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -2.9%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy -6.0% 2) Construction -3.5% 3) Semis -3.5%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• TDY, DRD, TLN, GEV, RHI, VRT, ETN, TYRA, UAMY, SE, IE, MANH, CENX, ROCK, FIX, NBIS, ADUR, EGAN, TXN, PONY, CSIQ, MP, LENZ, VRDN,  LII, SSYS, NFLX, APLD, IREN, HOND, MTDR, CVNA, SION, DCTH, IONQ, QUBT, NNE, USAR, EOSE, ARQQ, CRML, RAPT, SMR, ASTS, RGTI, BTDR, NVTS, GLXY, BETR, QBTS, OKLO, IRE, LEU, HUT and OWLS

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) BYND 2) PTLO 3) TXN 4) TMUS 5) ISRG

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) OKLO 2) ASTS 3) CVNA 4) RDDT 5) RGTI

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) KRE 2) FDN 3) XBI 4) SOXX 5) KBWB

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -.5%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Medical Equipment +2.8% 2) Gambling +1.1% 3) Oil Service +.9%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• VICR, WGO, SLP, TNL, GSIT, ISRG, PEGA, HCSG, AVY, PMT, PFSI, INVA, UUUU, BSX, IPG, OMC, HLT, WDS, AVDL, VAC, SBSW, BMI, DKNG, WCN, NOVT and PNTG

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) DNUT 2) GPRE 3) GPRO 4) ISRG 5) GANX

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) VICR 2) ISRG 3) PEGA 4) TNL 5) BSX

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLP 2) XLI 3) XRT 4) XLV 5) SMH

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (AB)/.85
• (AAL)/-.28
• (AN)/4.82
• (BX)/1.23
• (BC)/.87
• (CRS)/2.12
• (CBRE)/1.47
• (DOW)/-.31
• (FCX)/.42
• (HAS)/1.63
• (HON)/2.57
• (MBLY)/.09
• (POOL)/3.38
• (R)/3.54
• (SAH)/1.74
• (STM)/.22
• (TSCO)/.48
• (TPH)/.52
• (UNP)/2.99
• (VLO)/3.05
• (VC)/2.12 
• (BYD)/1.61
• (KVUE)/.26
• (MHK)/2.64
• (OSIS)/1.38
• (LUV)/-.04 

After the Close: 

• (ALK)/1.09
• (BKR)/.62
• (FIX)/6.29
• (DECK)/1.58
• (DLR)/1.79
• (F)/.35
• (INTC)/.02
• (NEM)/1.45
• (NSC)/3.19
• (SSNC)/1.47
• (VRSN)/2.25 

Economic Releases 

10:00 am EST 

• Existing Home Sales for Sept. is estimated to rise to 4.06M versus 4.0M in Aug. 

11:00 am EST

• The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for Oct. is estimated to fall to 2.0 versus 4.0 in Sept. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Bowman speaking, Fed's Barr speaking, Fed's weekly balance sheet report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, (NEOG) annual meeting and the (NTRA) business update call could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Afternoon Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +13.9% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 22.1 +4.2
• 6 Sectors Declining, 5 Sectors Rising
• 39.2% of Issues Advancing, 58.5% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.09 -23.8% 
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$88.2M
  
• 42 New 52-Week Highs, 14 New Lows
• 63.8% (-.6%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 52.0 -4.0

Polymarket:

• Will Congress pass a funding bill by Oct. 31st?  22.0% -7.0 percentage points
• US tariff rate on China on Nov. 12th? 25-40% 68.0% -1.0 percentage point
• Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 17.0% unch.
• US-Venezuela military engagement by Dec. 31st 31.0% -14.0 percentage points 

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 80.4 -.7%
• US High-Yield All Sectors OAS Index 355.5 +3.75 basis points
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 247.0 -1.4%
  
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 165.7 -1.9%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 26.0 (FEAR) -4.0
• 1-Day Vix 12.9 +10.6%
  
• Vix 19.3 +7.8%
  
• Total Put/Call .81 -

Wednesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to unch. on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 69.25 -.25 basis point.
• China Sovereign CDS 44.25 unch.
• China Iron Ore Spot 104.4 USD/Metric Tonne +.8%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.96 +.07%
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.2 -.01%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 81.3 +.4%.
• US 10-Year Yield 3.96% unch.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.2 +.6%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.4%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.1%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.1%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity and real estate shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.