Saturday, October 25, 2025

Today's Headlines

Around X:
  • @Business 
  • @Zerohedge 
  • @BarronsOnline
  • Had bullish commentary on (EXE) and (PGR).
  • @IGSquawk 
  • @WSJ
  • @CNBC 
  • @MarioNawfal
  • ELON: TESLA IS TRANSFORMING THE ENERGY SECTOR WITH POWERWALL AND MEGAPACK. “We’re also making a huge impact on the energy sector with battery storage. With both Powerwall and especially with the Megapack, we are dramatically improving the ability to generate more energy from the grid. If you look at total U.S. energy capability, there’s roughly a terawatt of continuous power available, but the average usage over a 24 hour cycle is only half a terawatt because of the big difference between day and night usage.”
  • ELON: OPTIMUS ROBOTS NOW PATROL OUR PALO ALTO OFFICES 24 HOURS A DAY. “We do have Optimus robots that walk around our offices at our engineering headquarters in Palo Alto, California. Basically 24 hours a day, seven days a week. Any visitors that come by can stop one of the Optimus robots and ask it to take them somewhere, and it’ll literally take them to that meeting room or location in the building.”
  • @LauraLoomer
  • @BasedSamParker
  • @ImMeme0
  • @elonmusk
  • @MJTruthUltra
  • @NicHulscher
  • @ValerieAnne1970
  • @realstewpeters
  • @unusual_whales
  • @EricLDaugh
  • @persianjewess
  • @ChristianHeiens
  • @AuronMacintyre
  • @DC_Draino
  • @topheronx
OpenVAERS:  
SKirsch.com:

Friday, October 24, 2025

Weekly Scoreboard*


S&P 500 6,805.2 +2.1%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

  • DJIA 47,275.2 +2.3%
  • NASDAQ 23,255.5 +2.5%
  • Russell 2000 2,517.2 +2.7%
  • NYSE FANG+ 16,542.0 +2.5%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 279.8 +1.7%
  • Wilshire 5000 67,323.4 +2.2%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 4,813.8 +2.3%
  • Russell 1000 Value 2,033.3 +1.9%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 881.4 -.5%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index(Ex Telecom) 249.9 +1.8%
  • NYSE Technology 7,563.1 +3.2%
  • Transports 15,505.6 -1.4%
  • Utilities 1,145.4 -.6%
  • MSCI Europe Banks 97.0 +1.3%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 55.2 +1.7%
  • Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 245.05 +1.13%
  • Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 126.79 +.35%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 584,998 +.68%
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 16.6 +31.4%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 461 -72
  • Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -12.4 n/a
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 102,958 n/a
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,936,690 n/a
  • Total Put/Call .78 -14.4%
  • OEX Put/Call 1.61 +43.8%
  • ISE Sentiment 163.0 -10.0
  • NYSE Arms 1.03 +24.1%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 84.1 +10.5%
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .50 +29.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index 1.10 -17.0 basis points
  • Volatility(VIX) 16.4 -21.1%
  • S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .51 -55.4%
  • CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 13.9 -18.9%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.3 -4.7%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 6.5 -4.7%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 23,027.8 -2.3%
  • NAAIM Exposure Index  90.4 +5.8
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $7.398 Trillion +.41%
  • ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows +$3.133 Million
  • AAII % Bulls 36.9 +9.5%
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 305.0 +3.8%
  • Crude Oil 61.6/bbl. +6.7%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 192.2 +5.1%
  • Natural Gas 3.38 +8.7%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 32.0 euros/megawatt-hour +.3%
  • Heating Oil 240.3 +10.5% 
  • Newcastle Coal 108.0 (1,000/metric ton) -1.1%
  • Gold 4,112.0 -3.4%
  • Silver 48.55 -6.5%
  • S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 506.4 +2.7%
  • Copper 512.5 +2.5%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 351.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.3%
  • China Iron Ore Spot 104.2 USD/Metric Tonne +.4%
  • China Battery Grade Lithium Carbonate 10,250.0 USD/metric tonne n/a
  • CME Lumber  686.5 -6.9%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,337.5 +.6%
  • US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 327.5 USD/Short Ton unch.
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.9% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 38.4 -2.8 percentage points
  • NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 2.16 -13.6%
  • US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 417.50 -32.0%
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 3.0 -35.7%
  • DOGE Total Taxpayer Dollars Saved $214.0 Billion($1,329.19 Savings Per Taxpayer) unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(145 of 500 reporting) +15.1% -.9 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 297.03 +1.09:  Growth Rate +13.4% +.4 percentage point, P/E 22.7 +.3
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.58% +10.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +7.6%
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 480.32 +2.71: Growth Rate +18.9% +.6 percentage point, P/E 33.8 +.4
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 11.0 +1.2 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 7.1 +9.1 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 13.2 +4.5 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 96.7%(-1.7 percentage points) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 3.75-4.0%, 3.3%(+3.3 percentage points) chance of no change, 0.0%(unch.) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 4.25-4.5% on 10/29
  • US Dollar Index 98.96 +.4%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,839.3 -.08%
  • Bitcoin/USD 110,618.5 +1.5%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 201.08 +1.3%
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.96 -.3%
  • Yield Curve(2s/10s) 51.25 -2.75 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 3.99% -1.0 basis point
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $6.542 Trillion -.1%
  • Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $6.788 Billion +11.6%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 40.0 -2.3%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 201.0 -5.9%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 79.0 -1.0 basis point
  • UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 21.4 -.7%
  • China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 43.7 -3.0%
  • Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 141.6 -3.9%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 72.9 -.7%
  • South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 24.60 +1.4%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.61 +.22%
  • China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 125.27 +.08%
  • Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +3.8% unch.
  • Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +2.6% unch.
  • US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +3.1% -10.0 basis points
  • CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +3.3% -20.0 basis points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.85% -2.0 basis points: CPI YoY +2.97% -2.0 basis points
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.96 +36.0 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.29 +1.0 basis point
  • Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread -35.75 basis points -3.25 basis points
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -23.0 +.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.5 +.25 basis point
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 51.4 -4.6%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 199.0 -5.6% 
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 237.0 -6.0 
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 59.3 -5.1%
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 128.4 -4.9%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 144.9 -5.8%
  • MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 123.0 +1.0 basis point
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 606.0 +3.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS .57 +1.0 basis point
  • M2 Money Supply YoY % Change +4.8% unch.
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding $1,320.5B +.7%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 237,500 n/a
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.3% n/a
  • Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 54.2 +.4%
  • Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 6.34% -5.0 basis points
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 316,200 -.3%
  • Weekly Retail Sales +5.4% -50.0 basis points
  • OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY +7.0% -3.0 percentage points
  • Box Office Weekly Gross $98.4M -4.0%
  • Nationwide Gas $3.07/gallon +.02/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 2,057.0 -.6%
  • Drewry World Container Freight Index $1,746.1/40 ft Box +3.5%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 992.7 +2.0%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 52.5 -4.6%
  • Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 68.2 -4.6%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 273,610 -.1%
  • TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,780,271 +22.6% 
  • Rasmussen Reports Daily Presidential Approval Tacking Poll 47.0% -2.0 percentage points
Best Performing Style
  • Small-Cap Value +2.8%
Worst Performing Style
  • Large-Cap Cap +1.9%
Leading Sectors
  • Oil Service +11.5%
  • Computer Services +8.1%
  • Computer Hardware +7.2%
  • Steel +5.3%
  • Electric Vehicles +4.6%
Lagging Sectors
  • Foods -1.2%
  • Electrification -1.3%
  • Nuclear -2.3%
  • Coal -4.4%
  • Gold & Silver -6.7%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (64)
  • NEGG, GRND, WYFI, FLNC, FDMT, FIX, CIFR, UMAC, QS, F, EOSE, MNTN, OPRX, LEU, HTBK, ENVA, GRAL, SNDK, ALB, CRCL, LTBR, COIN, AAL, PATH, WW, PATH, EME, CUBI, IBM, AIRS, LITE, AMD, COHR, NOVT, NRIX, IIIV, CEG, ASPI, KOD, SSNC, ASGN, SLM, SAM, DAL, CRS, GS, FLG, THC, VLY, PZZA, UBSI, CRL, GM, FHB, DAKT, SHLS, SKYT, ADTN, PFSI, ARR, ADTN, NUVL, OSBC and AMKR
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (21)
  • EAF, INSP, MBLY, HONE, NEM, EBC, ITW, GSK, DKNG, ZLAB, BYD, OWLS, MHK, ALK, KNSL, GNTX, SAIC, FORD, VRSN, BAH, MXL and DECK
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change


Stocks Surging into Afternoon on US Economic Data, US-China Trade Deal Hopes, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Tech/Financial Sector Strength

Overseas Futures:

  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +360 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +41 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +90 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/consumer discretionary/biotech/utility sector longs 
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (BOH)/1.17
  • (CRI)/.73
  • (KDP)/.54 
After the Close: 
  • (AMKR)/.43
  • (CAR)/7.98
  • (BBBY)/-.48
  • (BRO)/.94
  • (CDNS)/1.79
  • (CLS)/1.49
  • (CR)/1.49
  • (FFIV)/3.97
  • (FTAI)/1.21
  • (NE)/.26
  • (NUE)/2.18
  • (NXPI)/3.12
  • (METC)/-.27
  • (RMBS)/.63
  • (WHR)/1.39 
Economic Releases 
8:30 am EST 
  • Durable Goods Orders for Sept. is estimated to rise +.1%. 
  • Durables Ex Transports for Sept. is estimated to rise +.2%. 

10:30 am EST

  • The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for Oct. 

Upcoming Splits

  • (NVA) 5-for-1
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 update and the 2/5 year T-Note auctions could also impact global trading on Monday.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Thursday, October 23, 2025

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

  • Asian equity indices are +.25% to +1.25% on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 69.75 -.75 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 44.25 -.5 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 103.8 USD/Metric Tonne -.9%. 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.96 -.02%
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.19 -.14%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 83.3 +.4%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.0% unch.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.7 -1.4%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.16%. 
  • S&P 500 futures +.15%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.26%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.