Monday, October 27, 2025

Tuesday Watch

Around X:
  • @Business 
  • @ZeroHedge
  • @CNBC
  • @WSJ  
  • @TheTranscript 
  • @newstart_2024 
  • A landmark study from the Cleveland Clinic—a mainstream, pro-vaccine institution—has revealed alarming data about this year's flu shot. The research, tracking over 53,000 clinic employees during the 2024-25 respiratory virus season, found a shocking negative vaccine effectiveness of -26.9%. This isn't just low effectiveness; it's NEGATIVE efficacy. Key Findings: (video)
  • @HustleBitch_
  • @TaraBull808
  • @Libsoftiktok
  • @TheIntelSCIF
  • @AndrewKerrNC
  • @EndWokeness
  • @Jackunheard
  • @WellsJorda89710
  • @stkirsch
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.25% on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 64.75 -2.5 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 41.5 -.75 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 105.2 USD/Metric Tonne -.04%. 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.94 -.04%
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.32 -.1%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 86.2 -.4%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 3.98% unch.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.1 -.1%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.14%. 
  • S&P 500 futures unch.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.05%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by consumer and real estate shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on US-China Trade Deal Hopes, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Stable Long-Term Rates, Tech/Biotech Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.3 +.11%
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 3.99% -1.0 basis point
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.80% -4.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 105.6 USD/Metric Tonne +.3%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 31.4 euros/megawatt-hour -1.9%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 9.8 -1.0 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 4.3 +8.6 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 14.6 +4.8 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(147 of 500 reporting) +15.0% +1.8 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 297.27 +.54:  Growth Rate +13.5% +.2 percentage point, P/E 23.1 +.4
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.54% -2.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +7.6% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 483.64 +.86: Growth Rate +19.0% +.2 percentage point, P/E 34.6 +.8
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .65 +15.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.23 +13.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 2.9 -.4 point
  • US Yield Curve 49.25 basis points (2s/10s) -1.5 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.9% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 37.3% -1.7 percentage points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.85% -2.0 basis points: CPI YoY +2.97% -2.0 basis points
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.91 -4.0 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.29 -1.0 basis point
  • Highest target rate probability for Dec. 10th FOMC meeting: 93.0% (+1.3 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 28th meeting: 49.1%(+4.2 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 4.0-4.25%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +8 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +14 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +80 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/consumer discretionary/biotech sector longs 
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth +1.6%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Semis +2.5% 2) AI/Innovation +2.2% 3) Biotech +1.6%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • RNA, DYN, BBAR, GGAL, BMA, CEPU, LOMA, TGS, ZBIO, TEO, SMLR, GSIT, IRS, CRESY, PAM, YPF, UMAC, ETHZ, VIST, BBIO, DQ, IMVT, QCOM, JHG, ARQQ, KURA, DGNX, IDYA, GLNG, AAOI, QBTS, URGN, GLUE, CDTX, KDP, NRIX, FDMT, XNCR, NUVL, RMBS, RVMD, XPEV, LITE, MELI, CEPT, COGT, GEOS, TSLA, PPTA, BL, BUR, CLF, FCN, ZIM, ARLP, TVTX, RIVN, SEPN, OUST, TSEM, AVBP, APGE, SYRE, CADE, ZYME, ARM, SIMO, CRI, ABVX, LSPD, DECK, CSIQ, CRI, MUSA, TX, R, SOFI, NUE, ROIV, QUBT, IVZ and KMTS
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) ASST 2) REPL 3) HUN 4) ALIT 5) QCOM
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) QCOM 2) DYN 3) ASST 4) BBIO 5) RNA
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) XLK 2) IYH 3) KRE 4) IYJ 5) ARKK
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (AMT)/2.66
  • (AWI)/2.03
  • (CARR)/.56
  • (CECO)/.25
  • (CHKP)/2.45
  • (CVLT)/.94
  • (GLW)/.66
  • (DHI)/3.27
  • (HUBB)/4.98
  • (JBLU)/-.43
  • (LH)/4.13
  • (MSCI)/4.37
  • (NEE)/1.04
  • (PYPL)/1.20
  • (REGN)/9.65
  • (RGEN)/.42
  • (RCL)/5.69
  • (SHW)/3.44
  • (SYY)/1.12
  • (THC)/3.34
  • (UNH)/2.80
  • (UPS)/1.30
  • (VFC)/.43
  • (W)/.44 
  • (SCCO)/1.23 
After the Close: 
  • (BE)/.10
  • (BKNG)/95.70
  • (CAKE)/.60
  • (EIX)/2.15
  • (EA)/1.30
  • (FLS)/.80
  • (LSTR)/1.24
  • (MTH)/1.63
  • (MIR)//.10
  • (MOD)/1.01
  • (PPG)/2.08
  • (RRR)/.39
  • (STX)/2.40
  • (LRN)/1.07
  • (TER)/.79
  • (V)/2.97 
Economic Releases 
9:00 am EST 
  • The FHFA House Price Index MoM for Aug. is estimated to fall -.1% versus a -.1% decline in July.
  • S&P Cotality CS 20-City MoM SA for Aug. is estimated to fall -.1% versus a -.07% decline in July.

10:00 am EST

  • The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for Oct. is estimated to rise to -12.0 versus -17.0 in Sept.
  • The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for Oct. is estimated to fall to 93.4 versus 94.2 in Sept. 

10:30 am EST

  • Dallas Fed Services Activity Index for Oct. 

Upcoming Splits

  • (NVA) 5-for-1
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The weekly US retail sales reports, 7Y T-Note auction, M2 Money Supply (MoM) for Sept., API weekly crude oil stock report, (CTAS) annual meeting, (SYNA) annual meeting, (ADBE) investor meeting and the (SYNA) annual general meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +.6% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 18.9 +.3
  • 4 Sectors Declining, 7 Sectors Rising
  • 58.3% of Issues Advancing, 39.5% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms 1.29 +2.4% 
  • Non-Block Money Flow +$98.5M
  • 112 New 52-Week Highs, 18 New Lows
  • 65.9% (+1.3%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 59.3 +2.3
Polymarket:
  • Will Congress pass a funding bill by Oct. 31st?  8.0% -1.0 percentage point
  • US tariff rate on China on Nov. 12th? 25-40% 75.0% +3.0 percentage points
  • Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 17.0% -1.0 percentage point
  • US-Venezuela military engagement by Dec. 31st 50.0% -6.0 percentage points 
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 87.0 +3.5%
  • US High-Yield All Sectors OAS Index 337.0 -6.5 basis points
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 252.0 +1.0%
  • Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 171.6 -1.1%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 37.0 (FEAR) +4.0
  • 1-Day Vix 8.5 -41.8%
  • Vix 16.0 -2.3%
  • Total Put/Call .73 -11.0%

Sunday, October 26, 2025

Monday Watch

Around X:

  • @Business 
  • @Zerohedge 
  • @CNBC
  • @WSJ.com
  • @CollinRugg
  • @EricLDaugh
  • @TheIntelSCIF
  • "The 2020 Presidential Election, being rigged and stolen, is a far bigger SCANDAL." The Democrats, USAID, AWEB, the CCP, left-wing billionaires, Big Tech, Smartmatic, Dominion, fake IDs, fake ballots, rigged election software and machines, etc., are all involved. "WE KNOW EVERYTHING." - President Trump. (video)
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @ProjectConstitu 
  • @WideAwake_media
  • @MJTruthUltra
  • @EYakoby
  • @ValerieAnne1970
  • @akafaceUS
  • @EndWokeness
  • @winwithsinsome
  • @mazemoore
  • @wallstengine
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are +.75% to +1.75% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 67.25 -2.5 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 42.25 -2.0 basis points.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 104.5 USD/Metric Tonne +.2%.
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.94 +.03% 
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.29 -.04%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 85.9 +2.2%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.03% +3.0 basis points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 17.9 -4.2%. 
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.39%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.63%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.82%.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.