Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (AAP)/.75
• (ALNY)/.56
• (MO)/1.44
• (APTV)/1.81
• (BAX)/.60
• (BIIB)/3.88
• (BWA)/1.17
• (BMY)/1.51
• (CAH)/2.18
• (CWK)/.28
• (EXP)/4.35
• (LLY)/5.92
• (EME)/6.54
• (EL)/.18
• (FSS)/1.08
• (HSY)/1.07
• (HWM)/.91
• (ICE)/1.60
• (IDCC)/1.53
• (IP)/.57
• (KMB)/1.75
• (LHX)/2.58
• (MA)/4.32
• (MRK)/2.35
• (BTU)/-.01
• (PWR)/3.25
• (RBLX)/-.49
• (SAIA)/2.54
• (SHAK)/.31
• (SO)/1.51
• (CI)/7.64
• (TT)/3.78
• (VMC)/2.72
• (XEL)/1.32
• (XPO)/1.02
• (CYBR)/.92
• (MNST)/.48 

After the Close: 

• (AMZN)/1.57
• (AAPL)/1.78
• (NET)/.23
• (COIN)/1.15
• (CUZ)/.69
• (FSLR)/4.24
• (GILD)/2.14
• (GDDY)/1.46
• (ILMN)/1.17
• (IR)/.86
• (MTZ)/2.28
• (MPWR)/4.64
• (OSOS)/1.38
• (PSMT)/1.10
• (RDDT)/.52
• (RMD)/2.52
• (SKYW)/2.50
• (MSTR)/-.10
• (SYK)/3.13
• (TWLO)/1.08
• (WERN)/.14
• (WDC)/1.59
• (WY)/-.08
• (ZG)/.43 

Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST 

• None of note  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Bowman speaking, Fed's Logan speaking, ECB meeting, weekly EIA nat gas inventory report, Fed's weekly balance sheet report, (AA) investor day and the (HAIN) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Wednesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +1.0% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 64.75 unch.
• China Sovereign CDS 41.5 unch.
• China Iron Ore Spot 106.3 USD/Metric Tonne +.5%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.95 unch.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.34 -.02%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 86.4 +.9%.
• US 10-Year Yield 3.98% unch.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.4 -.9%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.1%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.1%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.2%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on AI-Induced Profit Margin Expansion Hopes, US-China Trade Deal Optimism, Earnings Outlook Upgrades, Tech/Metals & Mining Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.3 -.03%
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 3.98% unch.
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.80% unch.

• China Iron Ore Spot 106.4 USD/Metric Tonne +.6%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 31.5 euros/megawatt-hour +.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 12.4 +2.6 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 5.6 +1.3 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 17.8 +3.2 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(183 of 500 reporting) +12.0% -3.0 percentage points
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 297.42 +.15:  Growth Rate +13.6% +.1 percentage point, P/E 23.1 unch.
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.54% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +7.6% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 483.95 +.31: Growth Rate +19.1% +.1 percentage point, P/E 35.0 +.4
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .69 +4.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.20 -3.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 3.0 +.1 point
• US Yield Curve 48.5 basis points (2s/10s) -.75 basis point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.9% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 35.8% -1.5 percentage points

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.85% unch.: CPI YoY +2.97% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.86 -5.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.29 -1.0 basis point
• Highest target rate probability for Dec. 10th FOMC meeting: 90.8% (-3.6 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 28th meeting: 48.3%(+.2 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 4.0-4.25%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +630 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +80 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +90 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech//biotech sector longs 
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +1.0%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Nuclear +6.2% 2) AI/Innovation +1.8% 3) Shipping +1.7%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• ARQT, CCJ, FRMI, W, WULF, AGYS, LEG, UEC, SMR, PONY, ETHZ, INBX, REGN, SUPV, CX, SWKS, GGAL, LGN, ATI, RCUS, UPS, QRVO, MSCI, BEPC, CLS, CFLT, PYPL, CHKP, LUMN, NOV, BMA, BBAR, UUUU, HANX, WRD, INTC, JANX, SHW, SOFI, SOLSV, LUXE, BEP, BILI, ALKS, ZYME, SFD, WHR, ASPI, ZIM, CEPU, WHR, HSBC, NVDA, ASPI, HRI, GSL, ERJ, AXTA, AGI, WW, COLB, RH and ARHS

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) NOK 2) CHGG 3) ERIC 4) NUVB 5) RCL

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) CCJ 2) AGYS 3) W 4) SOFI 5) ARQT

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLF 2) SMH 3) VGT 4) IGM 5) XBI

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (AEP)/1.81
• (ADP)/2.44
• (BA)/-5.16
• (EAT)/1.77
• (CAT)/4.53
• (CHEF)/.42
• (CVS)/1.37
• (FLEX)/.75
• (GNRC)/2.19
• (GSK)/1.26
• (ITT)/1.67
• (ODFL)/1.22
• (OSK)/3.10
• (PSX)/2.14
• (TEL)/2.29
• (UBS)/.47
• (UTHR)/7.32 
• (AMSC)/.15
• (BBIO)/-.89
• (CRSP)/-1.26
• (EQIX)/9.35
• (GT)/.16 

After the Close: 

• (AEM)/1.95
• (ALGN)/2.42
• (GOOG)/2.26
• (AVB)/2.81
• (BOOT)/1.28
• (CHRW)/1.30
• (CP)/1.11
• (CMG)/.29
• (CGNX)/.29
• (CTSH)/1.30
• (EBAY)/1.33
• (EHC)/1.19
• (KLAC)/8.63
• (MELI)/9.16
• (META)/6.72
• (MGM)/.38
• (MSFT)/3.67
• (MYRG)/1.92
• (PRU)/3.72
• (PSA)/4.24
• (NOW)/4.26
• (SFM)/1.17
• (SBUX)/.56
• (TDOC)/-.26 
• (RIG)/.04
• (TTMI)/.60
• (WEX)/4.43 

Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST 

• Advance Goods Trade Balance for Sept. is estimated at -89.0B versus -$85.5B in Aug.
• Retail Inventories MoM for Sept.
• Wholesale Inventories MoM for Sept. is estimated to fall -.2%. 

10:00 am EST

• Pending Home Sales MoM for Sept. is estimated to rise +1.4% versus a +4.0% gain in Aug. 

2:00 pm EST

• The FOMC is expected to lower the benchmark Fed Funds rate -25.0 bps to 4.0%-4.25%. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The FOMC statement/press conference, Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 update, 7Y T-Note auction, weekly MBA Mortgage Application report and the (GWRE) analyst day could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Afternoon Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +11.9% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 16.9 -2.0
• 6 Sectors Declining, 5 Sectors Rising
• 40.0% of Issues Advancing, 57.5% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.14 +.88% 
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$122.1M
  
• 102 New 52-Week Highs, 43 New Lows
• 64.8% (-1.8%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 58.8 -.5

Polymarket:

• Will Congress pass a funding bill by Oct. 31st?  7.0% -1.0 percentage point
• US tariff rate on China on Nov. 12th? 25-40% 61.0% -9.0 percentage points
• Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 17.0% unch.
• US-Venezuela military engagement by Dec. 31st 50.0% unch.

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 86.1 -.5%
• US High-Yield All Sectors OAS Index 337.0 unch.
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 255.3 +1.6%
  
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 172.4 +.2%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 40.0 (FEAR) +3.0
• 1-Day Vix 10.6 +18.3%
  
• Vix 16.1 +2.2%
  
• Total Put/Call .74 -3.9%