Monday, December 01, 2025

Stocks Lower into Afternoon on Higher Long-Term Rates, Crypto Plunge, Profit-Taking, Biotech/Utility Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.22 +.02%
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.09% +8.0 basis points
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.78% -1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 103.5 USD/Metric Tonne -.12%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 28.2 euros/megawatt-hour -2.1%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 10.7 +.9 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 16.6 -1.1 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 25.8 -5.4 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(485 of 500 reporting) +13.0% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 305.26 +1.28:  Growth Rate +13.5% +.4 percentage point, P/E 22.4 -.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.50% -1.0 basis point
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +17.6% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 508.37 +3.83: Growth Rate +25.1% +.9 percentage point, P/E 32.6 -.1
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .63 +15.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.24 -32.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.4 +.1
  • US Yield Curve 55.5 basis points (2s/10s) +3.5 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.9% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 33.5% -2.3 percentage points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.85% unch.: CPI YoY +2.96% unch.
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.61 +2.0 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.25 +2.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for Jan. 28th FOMC meeting: 67.5% (+.4 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for March 18th meeting: 49.3%(+2.3 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.75-4.0%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +280 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -11 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +80 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/consumer discretionary sector longs and index hedges
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Small-Cap Growth -.7%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Biotech -1.8% 2) Utilities -1.6% 3) Computer Hardware -1.2%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • CPNG, CLSK, NUVL, BNTX, TITN, MSTR, NVCR and SION
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) IOT 2) CRDO 3) PL 4) XOP 5) ABTC
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) ABTC 2) PCVX 3) NIO 4) MRNA 5) HOOD
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) SMH 2) ARKK 3) XBI 4) XLK 5) IYZ

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Value +.1%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Oil Service +1.9% 2) Energy +1.9% 3) Regional Banks +1.3%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • AHMA, LEG, WOLF, BBWI, FIGS, ASH, ALAB, CHA, CHYM, DSP, NTES, CAVA, GSHD, CELH, ANF, CSIQ, PNTG, ATAT, URBN, MNDY, DECK, SNPS, PRGO, WYNN, WB, WLK, DASH, BF/B, AEO, CAI, AG, NRDS, HL, SYM and PACS
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) IRBT 2) URNM 3) BRR 4) CME 5) 
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) LEG 2) NFE 3) WYNN 4) SNPS 5) HDSN
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) XLI 2) PSI 3) VOX 4) XLV 5) XLE
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (ASO)/1.07
  • (AZO)/32.67
  • (CPB)/.73
  • (OLLI)/.73 
  • (CNM)/.74
  • (FERG)/2.64
  • (SAIL)/.06 
After the Close: 
  • (AVAV)/.78
  • (CASY)/5.18
  • (CBRL)/-.73
  • (PLAY)/-1.04
  • (GME)/.20 
  • (BRZE)/.06 
Economic Release 
10:00 am EST
  • Construction Spending (MoM) for Sept. is estimated unch. versus a +.2% gain in Aug. 

Afternoon

  • Wards Total Vehicles Sales for Nov. is estimated to rise to 15.4M versus 15.32M in Oct. 

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Bowman speaking, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index, weekly US retail sales reports, CFTC speculative net positioning reports, API weekly crude oil stock report, UBS Real Estate CEO CFO Conference, Scotiabank Mining Conference, Barclays Eat/Sleep/Play/Shop Conference, BofA Materials/Infrastructure Conference, UBS Tech/AI Conference, UBS Industrials/Transports Conference, Piper Sandler Healthcare Conference, Goldman Sachs Industrials/Materials Conference, (HUM) analyst meeting, (MNST) investor meeting and the (ZTS) investor meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -20.8% Below 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 13.5 -.9
  • 6 Sectors Declining, 5 Sectors Rising
  • 46.3% of Issues Advancing, 51.9% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms .85 +3.7%
  • Non-Block Money Flow -$244.2M
  • 80 New 52-Week Highs, 11 New Lows
  • 62.2% (-1.1%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 58.8 -2.4
Polymarket:
  • Supreme Court Rules in Favor of Trump's Tariffs? 27.0% -1.0 percentage point
  • Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31st? 26.0% -1.0 percentage point
  • Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 15.0% +1.0 percentage point
  • US-Venezuela military engagement by Dec. 31st 44.0% -3.0 percentage points
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 91.5 +.9%
  • US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 427.75 -.25 basis point
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 255.2 +1.1%
  • Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 160.5 -.8%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 25.0 (EXTREME FEAR) +2.0 points
  • 1-Day Vix 9.3 -16.3%
  • Vix 16.8 +2.5%
  • Total Put/Call .84 +25.4%

Sunday, November 30, 2025

Monday Watch

Around X:

  • @Business   
  • @Zerohedge
  • @CNBC
  • @WSJ.com
  • @Barron's 
  • Had bullish commentary on (D) and (RBLX).
  • @MarioNawful
  • TESLA PATENTED THE HOLY GRAIL OF LITHIUM REFINING, AND CHINA'S ENTIRE CHOKEHOLD IS CRACKING. Tesla's new patent isn't an improvement. It's a full execution of the old lithium refining model. They figured out how to generate the soda ash reagent on-site from the CO2 waste produced during calcination, turning the biggest emissions into the exact chemical needed for the leach process. Result: - ~30% lower refining costs. - 0 hazardous sodium-sulfate waste. - Near-0 external soda ash purchases. - Massive reduction in energy and water use. This is the refinery equivalent of discovering how to turn exhaust fumes into gasoline while you're driving. China controls 60% of global lithium refining and almost all soda ash supply chains; they’ve been weaponizing both for years. Tesla built the bypass.
  • STANFORD SCIENTISTS JUST CURED TYPE 1 DIABETES IN 100% OF MICE - AND THE PHARMA LOBBY IS ALREADY SHARPENING THEIR KNIVES. Stanford Medicine dropped the bomb: a "gentle" immune reset using low-dose radiation, T-cell-killing antibodies, and mismatched donor stem cells + islet transplants flipped the autoimmune switch off in every single mouse - preventing diabetes in 19 pre-diabetics and reversing it in all 9 long-term cases. No lifelong insulin jabs. No constant finger-pricks. No more 10-year-olds rationing candy like it's contraband. The hybrid immune system - part original, part donor - plays nice without nuking the whole defense grid or requiring a lifetime of immunosuppressants. Published in the Journal of Clinical Investigation, this isn't sci-fi: the core steps are already in clinics for blood disorders and organ transplants. Lead researcher Seung Kim:
  • @LauraLoomer.
  • @ValerieAnne1970
  • @wideawake_media
  • @TheSCIF
  • @IanJaeger29 
  • Republican Rep. Andy Barr who is running to replace Mitch McConnell in the Senate, wants to give more Afghan migrants visas to stay in the United States. This guy is a total fraud. (video)
  • @WallStreetMav
  • @EmeraldRobinson
  • @elonmusk
  • @songpionganq
  • @AlexBerenson
  • @EricLDaugh
  • @TheLastRefuge2
  • @Real_RobN
  • @LaraLogan
  • @StockSavvyShay
  • @JoshHall2024
  • @DeItaone
  • @AmyMek
  • @KobeissiLetter
  • @JKylebass
  • @MaryanneDemasi
  • Major journal under fire for omitting Pfizer’s failed flu data in seniors. Pfizer’s mRNA flu shot failed in the over-65s, but the @NEJM never published the data — prompting calls for accountability.
  • @redpillb0t
  • @annvandersteel
  • @RealHickory
  • In 40 days, the statute of limitations expires on one of the greatest crimes ever committed against the American people, Nancy Pelosi's J6 Insurrection hoax! After that, everyone involved will have gotten away with it. If indeed that happens, it'll be a worse crime!
  • @AlexBerenson
  • @drjamesbjoyce
  • @hodgetwins
  • #1 federal witness to the 2020 electoral heist Tina Peters still rotting in a Colorado prison while Jena Griswold and Jared Polis celebrate on Thanksgiving. That's two Thanksgivings that Gold Star Mom and Cancer survivor Tina has missed in a row. This is unacceptable @realDonaldTrump @JDVance. Do something!
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are -.5% to +.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 68.5 +1.0 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 47.75 +.5 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 102.5 USD/Metric Tonne +.24%.
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.80 +.16% 
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.22 +.02%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 91.6 +.9%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.03% +2.0 basis points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.2 +1.4%. 
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.23%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.57%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.73%.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.