Monday, December 01, 2025

Tuesday Watch

Around X:

  • @Business  
  • @ZeroHedge
  • @CNBC
  • @WSJ  
  • @TheTranscript
  • MongoDB CEO: "Q3 was an exceptional quarter. Existing customers are expanding with us & net-new customer additions continue to show strength." $MDB: +16% AH.
  • @MarioNawful 
  • THEY’RE NOT EVEN PRETENDING ANYMORE - BRITAIN IS WAGING OPEN WAR ON CHRISTIANITY WHILE ISLAM GETS A FREE PASS TO OWN THE STREETS. (video)
  • THE BIGGEST PANDEMIC FRAUD IN AMERICA: $1 BILLION STOLEN FROM CHILDREN’S AID IN MINNESOTA - AND NO ONE STOPPED IT. While the rest of the country battled a pandemic, scammers in Minnesota were cashing in, stealing over $1 billion from programs meant to feed children and support struggling families. The fraud wasn’t sophisticated. It was brazen. Fake invoices, fake services, luxury cars, condos abroad, and it went on for years while Governor Walz’s administration looked the other way. Why? Because the main perpetrators were tied to a key voting bloc.
  • CHINA'S $300-$600 BILLION ANNUAL THEFT - THE FBI OPENS A NEW CASE EVERY 10 HOURS. The FBI Director just said China conducts "more cyber intrusions than all other nations in the world combined." That's not hyperbole - it's the official assessment. China steals between $300-600 billion worth of U.S. intellectual property every year. For perspective: that's $4,000-$6,000 per American family after taxes. And the FBI opens a new China-related counterintelligence case every 10 hours.
  • OPINION: CHINA'S "ECONOMIC MIRACLE" IS COLLAPSING FROM THE INSIDE. China's top weapons manufacturers saw revenues crash 10% in 2024, while the rest of the world's defense companies kept growing. Norinco, the company that builds China’s tanks and missiles, plunged 31% to $14B. Aircraft production by AVIC slowed to a crawl. Major contracts were quietly cancelled or delayed because Xi Jinping’s anti-corruption crackdown ripped through the military’s supply chain... including China’s second-highest-ranking general. They're literally eating their own seed corn.
  • @LauraLoomer
  • @newstart_2024 
  • @amuse
  • @KobeissiLetter
  • @wideawake_media
  • @EricLDaugh
  • @LaraLogan
  • @bennyjohnson
  • @itzjoshuajake
  • @GlobalMktObserv
  • @songpinganq
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are unch. to +.75% on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 68.0 -.5 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 47.5 -.25 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 103.9 USD/Metric Tonne +.3%. 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.79 +.07%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.21 -.04%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 91.6 +.6%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.09% unch.
  • Japan 30-Year Yield 3.41% +2.0 basis points 
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.8 -.3%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.12%. 
  • S&P 500 futures +.05%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.12%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by consumer discretionary and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Lower into Afternoon on Higher Long-Term Rates, Crypto Plunge, Profit-Taking, Biotech/Utility Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.22 +.02%
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.09% +8.0 basis points
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.78% -1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 103.5 USD/Metric Tonne -.12%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 28.2 euros/megawatt-hour -2.1%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 10.7 +.9 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 16.6 -1.1 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 25.8 -5.4 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(485 of 500 reporting) +13.0% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 305.26 +1.28:  Growth Rate +13.5% +.4 percentage point, P/E 22.4 -.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.50% -1.0 basis point
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +17.6% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 508.37 +3.83: Growth Rate +25.1% +.9 percentage point, P/E 32.6 -.1
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .63 +15.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.24 -32.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.4 +.1
  • US Yield Curve 55.5 basis points (2s/10s) +3.5 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.9% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 33.5% -2.3 percentage points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.85% unch.: CPI YoY +2.96% unch.
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.61 +2.0 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.25 +2.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for Jan. 28th FOMC meeting: 67.5% (+.4 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for March 18th meeting: 49.3%(+2.3 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.75-4.0%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +280 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -11 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +80 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/consumer discretionary sector longs and index hedges
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Small-Cap Growth -.7%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Biotech -1.8% 2) Utilities -1.6% 3) Computer Hardware -1.2%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • CPNG, CLSK, NUVL, BNTX, TITN, MSTR, NVCR and SION
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) IOT 2) CRDO 3) PL 4) XOP 5) ABTC
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) ABTC 2) PCVX 3) NIO 4) MRNA 5) HOOD
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) SMH 2) ARKK 3) XBI 4) XLK 5) IYZ

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Value +.1%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Oil Service +1.9% 2) Energy +1.9% 3) Regional Banks +1.3%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • AHMA, LEG, WOLF, BBWI, FIGS, ASH, ALAB, CHA, CHYM, DSP, NTES, CAVA, GSHD, CELH, ANF, CSIQ, PNTG, ATAT, URBN, MNDY, DECK, SNPS, PRGO, WYNN, WB, WLK, DASH, BF/B, AEO, CAI, AG, NRDS, HL, SYM and PACS
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) IRBT 2) URNM 3) BRR 4) CME 5) 
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) LEG 2) NFE 3) WYNN 4) SNPS 5) HDSN
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) XLI 2) PSI 3) VOX 4) XLV 5) XLE
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (ASO)/1.07
  • (AZO)/32.67
  • (CPB)/.73
  • (OLLI)/.73 
  • (CNM)/.74
  • (FERG)/2.64
  • (SAIL)/.06 
After the Close: 
  • (AVAV)/.78
  • (CASY)/5.18
  • (CBRL)/-.73
  • (PLAY)/-1.04
  • (GME)/.20 
  • (BRZE)/.06 
Economic Release 
10:00 am EST
  • Construction Spending (MoM) for Sept. is estimated unch. versus a +.2% gain in Aug. 

Afternoon

  • Wards Total Vehicles Sales for Nov. is estimated to rise to 15.4M versus 15.32M in Oct. 

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Bowman speaking, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index, weekly US retail sales reports, CFTC speculative net positioning reports, API weekly crude oil stock report, UBS Real Estate CEO CFO Conference, Scotiabank Mining Conference, Barclays Eat/Sleep/Play/Shop Conference, BofA Materials/Infrastructure Conference, UBS Tech/AI Conference, UBS Industrials/Transports Conference, Piper Sandler Healthcare Conference, Goldman Sachs Industrials/Materials Conference, (HUM) analyst meeting, (MNST) investor meeting and the (ZTS) investor meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -20.8% Below 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 13.5 -.9
  • 6 Sectors Declining, 5 Sectors Rising
  • 46.3% of Issues Advancing, 51.9% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms .85 +3.7%
  • Non-Block Money Flow -$244.2M
  • 80 New 52-Week Highs, 11 New Lows
  • 62.2% (-1.1%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 58.8 -2.4
Polymarket:
  • Supreme Court Rules in Favor of Trump's Tariffs? 27.0% -1.0 percentage point
  • Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31st? 26.0% -1.0 percentage point
  • Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 15.0% +1.0 percentage point
  • US-Venezuela military engagement by Dec. 31st 44.0% -3.0 percentage points
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 91.5 +.9%
  • US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 427.75 -.25 basis point
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 255.2 +1.1%
  • Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 160.5 -.8%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 25.0 (EXTREME FEAR) +2.0 points
  • 1-Day Vix 9.3 -16.3%
  • Vix 16.8 +2.5%
  • Total Put/Call .84 +25.4%