Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Stable Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Crypto Bounce, Tech/Transport Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.2 +.03%
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.09% unch.
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.75% -3.0 basis points

• China Iron Ore Spot 104.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.1%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 28.0 euros/megawatt-hour -.6%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 11.5 +.8 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 17.4 +.8 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 25.3 -.5 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(485 of 500 reporting) +13.0% unch.
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 305.35 +.09:  Growth Rate +13.5% unch., P/E 22.3 -.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.49% -1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +17.6% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 508.67 +.30: Growth Rate +25.2% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.6 unch.
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .61 -2.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.38 +14.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.5 +.1
• US Yield Curve 56.75 basis points (2s/10s) +1.25 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.9% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 32.5% -1.0 percentage point

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.85% unch.: CPI YoY +2.96% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.60 -1.0 basis point
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.25 unch.
• Highest target rate probability for Jan. 28th FOMC meeting: 66.6% (-.5 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for March 18th meeting: 47.1%(-2.1 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.75-4.0%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +240 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -75 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +63 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial sector longs and emerging market shorts
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then covered some
• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value -.1%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver -2.7% 2) Foods -1.6% 3) Energy -.9%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• BWLP, BBY, LEG, PVLA, SIG, BKV, XYZ, CSIQ, ALAB, XPO, CMCL, UPB, HUT, SYM and JANX

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) ELAN 2) ABTC 3) MDB 4) CRDO 5) DLTR

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) ABTC 2) SYM 3) CNCK 4) VSTS 5) MRNA

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XBI 2) XLP 3) ARKK 4) IYM 5) IGV

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

 

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +.7%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Airlines +2.4% 2) Nuclear +2.4% 3) Computer Hardware +1.9%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• MDB, VERA, SLP, CRDO, AXTI, BMNR, INSP, BA, CTRI, BE, MSTR, INTC, FLY, UPWK, NXPI, PSTG, AMKR, UNFI, ASAN, GTLB, EL, BKNG, APLD, TSEM, FMX, CAMT, SAIA, NSSC, ARWR, SPR, SBS, BLCO, SNOW, CLH, UAL, REPL, YELP, ATAT, NRDS, KRNT, LOGI and FROG

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) HUN 2) BRR 3) FRSH 4) COGT 5) MDB 

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) CRDO 2) MDB 3) SLP 4) BE 5) BA

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLF 2) SMH 3) KRE 4) IXN 5) IYH

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (DLTR)/1.09
• (M)/-.13
• (RY)/2.52
• (KFY)/1.31
• (THO)/-.07 

After the Close: 

• (AI)/-.33
• (FIVE)/.24
• (GWRE)/.61
• (HQY)/.91
• (NNE)/-.31
• (PVH)/2.54
• (CRM)/2.86
• (SNOW)/.31
• (PATH)/.15 

Economic Release 

8:15 am EST

• The ADP Employment Change for Nov. is estimated to fall to 5K versus 42K in Oct. 

8:30 am EST

• The Import Price Index MoM for Sept. is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.3% gain in Aug.
• The Export Price Index MoM for Sept. is estimated to fall -.1% versus a +.3% gain in Aug. 

9:15 am EST

• Capacity Utilization for Sept. is estimated to fall to 77.2% versus 77.4% in Aug.
• Manufacturing Production for Sept. is estimated unch. versus a +.2% gain in Aug.
• Industrial Production MoM for Sept. is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.1% gain in Aug.

10:00 am EST

• ISM Services Index for Nov. is estimated to fall to 52.0 versus 52.4 in Oct.
• ISM Services Prices Paid for Nov. is estimated to fall to 68.0 versus 70.0 in Oct. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, Jefferies Renewables/Clean Energy Conference, Goldman Sachs Autos Conference, Goldman Sachs Industrials/Materials Conference, UBS Industrials/Transports Conference, Morgan Stanley Consumer/Retail Conference, UBS Tech/AI Conference and the Morgan Stanley Business Services Leisure/Transport Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -18.3% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 13.1 -.4
• 6 Sectors Declining, 5 Sectors Rising
• 43.8% of Issues Advancing, 54.0% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .99 +5.3%
• Non-Block Money Flow +$42.9M
  
• 61 New 52-Week Highs, 13 New Lows
• 60.6% (-1.3%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 55.9 -2.9

Polymarket:

• Supreme Court Rules in Favor of Trump's Tariffs? 27.0% unch.
• Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31st? 26.0% unch.
• Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 14.0% -1.0 percentage point
• US-Venezuela military engagement by Dec. 31st 44.0% unch.

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 91.8 +.8%
• US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 423.25 -4.5 basis points
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 256.2 +.7%
  
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 162.8 +1.5%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 26.0 (MOVED TO FEAR FROM EXTREME FEAR) +1.0 point
• 1-Day Vix 9.5 -19.5%
  
• Vix 16.5 -4.3%
  
• Total Put/Call .75 -16.7%

Tuesday Watch

Around X:

• @Business  

• The US will seek agreements with eight allied nations as part of an effort to strengthen supply chains for the computer chips and critical minerals needed for AI tech, according to the top State Department official for economic affairs. 
• China is expected to step up US soybean purchases to meet a pledge to buy at least 12 million tons by the end of the year, according to multiple traders, underscoring a wider market hope that — at least in agriculture — a fragile trade truce can hold. 
• President Trump signed into law a measure authorizing billions of dollars in federal funding to help prevent drug overdoses and aid patients recovering from addiction, according to the White House. 
• Retail investors who piled into Michael Saylor’s grand Bitcoin experiment are paying a heavy price. 
• US Commerce Department agrees to invest as much as $150 million in xLight Inc., a chip technology startup tied to former Intel Corp. Chief Executive Officer Pat Gelsinger. 
• Amazon plans to offer deliveries of hundreds of household items, including some fresh groceries and over-the-counter medicines, within 30 minutes in a test program beginning in Philadelphia and its home city of Seattle. 
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets. 
• Here's what you need to know to start your day. 

• @ZeroHedge

• On The CIA's Color Revolution Against The Nation It's Supposed To Serve...
• BREAKING: Trump just ORDERED U.S. War Ships to SURROUND the Narco-State of Venezuela as the President holds a HIGH-LEVEL MEETING at the White House
  .
• I just met with the President. I am recommending a full travel ban on every damn country that's been flooding our nation with killers, leeches, and entitlement junkies. Our forefathers built this nation on blood, sweat, and the unyielding love of freedom—not for foreign invaders to slaughter our heroes, suck dry our hard-earned tax dollars, or snatch the benefits owed to AMERICANS. WE DON'T WANT THEM. NOT ONE. -@Sec_Noem.
• Chinese Rare-Earth Dealers Find Ways to Dodge Beijing’s Export Restrictions.
• It just keeps getting worse for @GovTimWalz. Just one day after 400 BRAVE employees from @MinnesotaDHS exposed “massive fraud,” @USDOT has discovered that ONE THIRD of non-domiciled CDLs were issued ILLEGALLY in the state. MINNESOTA: You’re on notice. You have 30 days to fix this or lose $30 million in federal funding. -@SecDuffy. 
• QT Ends Today Amid A Surge In Repo Facility Usage: What This Means For Overall Liquidity.
• Cocaine Inflation Erupts After U.S. Strikes On Caribbean Drug Boats.
• Milei Launches 'Isaac Accords' To Expand Israeli Influence In Latin America.
• Why Trump's Next PR Pivot Must Be Total, Absolute Political Warfare On Socialism.
• *EU TO CUT TRADE PERKS FOR COUNTRIES OVER MIGRANTS: POLITICO. *POLITICO CITES A DOCUMENT ON EU MIGRANT TRADE BENEFITS.    
• *NETFLIX MAKES MOSTLY CASH WARNER BID IN SECOND ROUND OF AUCTION.
• *U.S. RED MEAT PRODUCTION FELL 2.6% IN OCT., USDA SAYS. 
• These Were The Best And Worst Performing Assets Of November And YTD. 
• Silver Surges, Crypto Purges As BoJ Hawks Battle Fed Doves.  

• @CNBC

• CNBC Daily Open: Crypto on the market's 'naughty list'?
• Strategist reveals an 'asymmetric AI' trade: 'A lot of upside without much downside'.
• Asia markets set to open higher, breaking ranks with Wall Street losses on crypto sell-off.
• Costco sues for Trump tariff refunds before Supreme Court rules on if they're illegal.
• Stock futures are little changed after major U.S. indexes snap five-day win streaks: Live updates.
• Tuesday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.
• Apple's artificial intelligence chief is stepping down, company says. 

• @WSJ  

• Goldman Sachs said it would acquire Innovator Capital Management for about $2 billion, a bet on a corner of the ETF market that has been called candy for retired baby boomers.
• Colleges and universities must return to offering a rigorous liberal arts education that refuses to engage in indoctrination and challenges groupthink, writes @McCormickProf.
• Los Angeles is a hot spot in a nationwide wave of copper thefts as prices for the metal sit near record highs, leaving telecommunications companies under siege.
• Teenagers are increasingly engaging in stock trading, with some already saving for financial milestones such as buying a home. “I kind of just wanted to see if it would work and how much money I could get.”

• @TheTranscript

• MongoDB CEO: "Q3 was an exceptional quarter. Existing customers are expanding with us & net-new customer additions continue to show strength." $MDB: +16% AH.

• @MarioNawful 

• THEY’RE NOT EVEN PRETENDING ANYMORE - BRITAIN IS WAGING OPEN WAR ON CHRISTIANITY WHILE ISLAM GETS A FREE PASS TO OWN THE STREETS. (video)
• THE BIGGEST PANDEMIC FRAUD IN AMERICA: $1 BILLION STOLEN FROM CHILDREN’S AID IN MINNESOTA - AND NO ONE STOPPED IT. While the rest of the country battled a pandemic, scammers in Minnesota were cashing in, stealing over $1 billion from programs meant to feed children and support struggling families. The fraud wasn’t sophisticated. It was brazen. Fake invoices, fake services, luxury cars, condos abroad, and it went on for years while Governor Walz’s administration looked the other way. Why? Because the main perpetrators were tied to a key voting bloc.
• CHINA'S $300-$600 BILLION ANNUAL THEFT - THE FBI OPENS A NEW CASE EVERY 10 HOURS. The FBI Director just said China conducts "more cyber intrusions than all other nations in the world combined." That's not hyperbole - it's the official assessment. China steals between $300-600 billion worth of U.S. intellectual property every year. For perspective: that's $4,000-$6,000 per American family after taxes. And the FBI opens a new China-related counterintelligence case every 10 hours.
• OPINION: CHINA'S "ECONOMIC MIRACLE" IS COLLAPSING FROM THE INSIDE. China's top weapons manufacturers saw revenues crash 10% in 2024, while the rest of the world's defense companies kept growing. Norinco, the company that builds China’s tanks and missiles, plunged 31% to $14B. Aircraft production by AVIC slowed to a crawl. Major contracts were quietly cancelled or delayed because Xi Jinping’s anti-corruption crackdown ripped through the military’s supply chain... including China’s second-highest-ranking general. They're literally eating their own seed corn.

• @LauraLoomer

• CURRENT IRS DEFYING PRESIDENT TRUMP BY REFUSING TO STRIP 501c3 STATUSES FROM NON PROFITS THAT ARE IMPORTING ISLAMIC IMMIGRANTS AND NON PROFITS TIED TO ISLAMIC JIHAD AND MASS MIGRATION.

• @newstart_2024 

• Tucker Carlson went nuclear on America’s top generals: “Most of them are sociology professors with nuclear weapons… self-hating white guys, crypto-gay leftists who got master’s degrees from places like Fletcher and then forced DEI on the entire military because they hate themselves.” He then drops the biggest red pill: “The COVID vaccine mandate wasn’t about health. It was a deliberate purge of every soldier with testosterone and self-respect. The ones who refused were forced out on purpose… so only controllable betas and true believers stayed behind.” “Trump thought the brass were John Wayne. He now knows many are the enemy.” (video)

• @amuse

• COLOR REVOLUTION: Mark Kelly took CCP-controlled Tencent money for his balloon company, hid it in a blind trust, then joined the Seditious Six to tell troops to defy Trump. His credibility is zero. Tencent, a Chinese Communist Party controlled company, pumped money into Mark Kelly’s stratospheric balloon startup, World View, in 2013 and 2016. Kelly quietly moved the Chinese investment into a secretive blind trust when he ran for Senate. Now he’s part of the Seditious Six telling US troops to ignore President Trump’s lawful orders and warning they could be prosecuted once Democrats are “back in control.” Critics note the irony: a senator with CCP-linked funding undermining the chain of command of the U.S. military.

• @KobeissiLetter

• BREAKING: US tariff revenue surged +281% YoY in October, to a record $34.2 billion. Over the 3 months ending October, customs and certain excise taxes reached $96.8 billion, more than the entire Fiscal Year 2024. This builds on total customs and excise tax revenues of $215.2 billion in Fiscal Year 2025, which ended September 30th. To put this into perspective, corporate income taxes collected in Fiscal Year 2025 were ~$452.1 billion. So far in Fiscal Year 2026, which began on October 1st, the government has collected $41.6 billion in corporate income taxes, just ~22% more than tariff revenue. Tariff revenue is skyrocketing. (graph)

• @wideawake_media

• Dr. Ben Carson: We cannot allow what was done during Covid to be "swept under the rug". "Dr. Fauci... [eventually admitted] that there was no science behind any of what he was saying." "We know that the side effects from Covid vaccinations far exceeded anything else in the last 30 years combined." "It's important for us to lend our voices to that—not to just let it be swept under the rug." (video)

• @EricLDaugh

• HOLY CRAP! Seditious Sen. Mark Kelly is digging his hole EVEN DEEPER, saying the military rebellion MUST happen. Even Kristen Welker can't BELIEVE what he is saying right now. KELLY: Just say I'M NOT GONNA DO THAT, it's against the law. WELKER: That's a lot of burden on the troops to make a decision in real-time... KELLY: A reasonable person can tell what's legal and illegal. WELKER: So would YOU refuse these orders to strike drug boats? KELLY: Well, the, the difference between the initial strike and what's being reported as a second strike, those are different...they've tied themselves in knots..[non-answer]. COURT-MARTIAL KELLY, NOW! (video)
• JUST IN: President Trump has an urgent message for the voters of TENNESSEE. Election day: TUESDAY. "I am asking all America First Patriots in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District, who haven’t voted yet, to please GET OUT AND VOTE on Election Day, Tuesday, December 2nd, for a phenomenal Candidate, Matt Van Epps." "Matt is fighting against a woman who hates Christianity, will take away your guns, wants Open Borders, Transgender for everybody, men in women’s sports, and openly disdains Country music. She said all of these things precisely, and without question — IT’S ON TAPE! Do not take this Race for granted. The Radical Left Democrats are spending a fortune to beat one of the best Candidates we’ve ever had, Matt Van Epps! You can win this Election for Matt. GET OUT AND VOTE FOR MATT VAN EPPS, who has my Complete and Total Endorsement — HE WILL NEVER LET YOU DOWN!" (pic)

• @LaraLogan

• Why is Tina Peters still behind bars? (video)

• @bennyjohnson

• Democrats in Nashville are propping up AOC of the South who flat-out hates the city. Aftyn Behn’s words, not ours: “I hate the city, I hate the bachelorettes, I hate the pedal taverns, I hate country music, I hate all of the things that make Nashville. I hate it." Republicans put up an America First Combat Veteran. Democrats put up someone who despises the community she’s asking to lead. Vote @MattforTN. Polymarket has him at an 85% chance of winning which is a strong reflection of how people feel about the race. (video)

• @itzjoshuajake

• Just In: Elon Musk on where to invest. “I don’t buy stocks or manage a portfolio. I just build companies. If I had to pick: Google (AI groundwork = insane future value), Nvidia (obvious) and anything crushing it in AI, robotics, or spaceflight will own almost ALL the value.” (video)

• @GlobalMktObserv

• US money supply beats record after record: The US M2 money supply jumped 4.6% in October 2025 from the previous year, to $22.3 TRILLION, another ALL-TIME HIGH. M2 has been rising by 6.3% annually over the last 25 years. The annual growth has been 8% since the 2020 CRISIS. (graph)

• @songpinganq

• In China, a single 'tweet' that criticizes government can cost you 50 social credit points, leading to arrest and blacklisting. This can affect your career, your ability to take a train, your internet speed, and even your children's access to education..or worse: it forces you to become homeless. (video)

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +.75% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 68.0 -.5 basis point.
• China Sovereign CDS 47.5 -.25 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 103.9 USD/Metric Tonne +.3%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.79 +.07%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.21 -.04%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 91.6 +.6%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.09% unch.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.41% +2.0 basis points 
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.8 -.3%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.12%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.05%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.12%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by consumer discretionary and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.