Tuesday, December 02, 2025

Wednesday Watch

Around X:

  • @Business  
  • @ZeroHedge
  • @CNBC
  • @WSJ  
  • @MarioNawful 
  • @nicksortor
  • @LauraLoomer
  • @newstart_2024 
  • @TheIntelSCIF
  • @KobeissiLetter
  • @unusual_whales
  • @disclosetv
  • @DailyCaller
  • @EricLDaugh
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  • @DavidSacks
  • @OcrazioCornPop
  • @mitchellvii
  • @amitisinvesting
  • @JasonJournoDC
  • @TheMagaKing2_0
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are unch. to +1.0% on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 66.75 -1.25 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 45.75 -1.75 basis points.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 104.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.1%. 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.81 +.05%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.2 -.1%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 91.9 +.5%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.08% -1.0 basis point.
  • Japan 30-Year Yield 3.40% +1.0 basis point 
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.7 +.3%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.18%. 
  • S&P 500 futures +.16%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.25%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by consumer discretionary and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Stable Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Crypto Bounce, Tech/Transport Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.2 +.03%
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.09% unch.
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.75% -3.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 104.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.1%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 28.0 euros/megawatt-hour -.6%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 11.5 +.8 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 17.4 +.8 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 25.3 -.5 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(485 of 500 reporting) +13.0% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 305.35 +.09:  Growth Rate +13.5% unch., P/E 22.3 -.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.49% -1.0 basis point
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +17.6% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 508.67 +.30: Growth Rate +25.2% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.6 unch.
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .61 -2.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.38 +14.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.5 +.1
  • US Yield Curve 56.75 basis points (2s/10s) +1.25 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.9% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 32.5% -1.0 percentage point
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.85% unch.: CPI YoY +2.96% unch.
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.60 -1.0 basis point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.25 unch.
  • Highest target rate probability for Jan. 28th FOMC meeting: 66.6% (-.5 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for March 18th meeting: 47.1%(-2.1 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.75-4.0%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +240 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -75 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +63 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial sector longs and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then covered some
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Value -.1%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Gold & Silver -2.7% 2) Foods -1.6% 3) Energy -.9%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • BWLP, BBY, LEG, PVLA, SIG, BKV, XYZ, CSIQ, ALAB, XPO, CMCL, UPB, HUT, SYM and JANX
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) ELAN 2) ABTC 3) MDB 4) CRDO 5) DLTR
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) ABTC 2) SYM 3) CNCK 4) VSTS 5) MRNA
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) XBI 2) XLP 3) ARKK 4) IYM 5) IGV

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Small-Cap Growth +.7%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Airlines +2.4% 2) Nuclear +2.4% 3) Computer Hardware +1.9%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • MDB, VERA, SLP, CRDO, AXTI, BMNR, INSP, BA, CTRI, BE, MSTR, INTC, FLY, UPWK, NXPI, PSTG, AMKR, UNFI, ASAN, GTLB, EL, BKNG, APLD, TSEM, FMX, CAMT, SAIA, NSSC, ARWR, SPR, SBS, BLCO, SNOW, CLH, UAL, REPL, YELP, ATAT, NRDS, KRNT, LOGI and FROG
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) HUN 2) BRR 3) FRSH 4) COGT 5) MDB 
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) CRDO 2) MDB 3) SLP 4) BE 5) BA
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) XLF 2) SMH 3) KRE 4) IXN 5) IYH
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (DLTR)/1.09
  • (M)/-.13
  • (RY)/2.52
  • (KFY)/1.31
  • (THO)/-.07 
After the Close: 
  • (AI)/-.33
  • (FIVE)/.24
  • (GWRE)/.61
  • (HQY)/.91
  • (NNE)/-.31
  • (PVH)/2.54
  • (CRM)/2.86
  • (SNOW)/.31
  • (PATH)/.15 
Economic Release 
8:15 am EST
  • The ADP Employment Change for Nov. is estimated to fall to 5K versus 42K in Oct. 

8:30 am EST

  • The Import Price Index MoM for Sept. is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.3% gain in Aug.
  • The Export Price Index MoM for Sept. is estimated to fall -.1% versus a +.3% gain in Aug. 

9:15 am EST

  • Capacity Utilization for Sept. is estimated to fall to 77.2% versus 77.4% in Aug.
  • Manufacturing Production for Sept. is estimated unch. versus a +.2% gain in Aug.
  • Industrial Production MoM for Sept. is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.1% gain in Aug.

10:00 am EST

  • ISM Services Index for Nov. is estimated to fall to 52.0 versus 52.4 in Oct.
  • ISM Services Prices Paid for Nov. is estimated to fall to 68.0 versus 70.0 in Oct. 

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, Jefferies Renewables/Clean Energy Conference, Goldman Sachs Autos Conference, Goldman Sachs Industrials/Materials Conference, UBS Industrials/Transports Conference, Morgan Stanley Consumer/Retail Conference, UBS Tech/AI Conference and the Morgan Stanley Business Services Leisure/Transport Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -18.3% Below 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 13.1 -.4
  • 6 Sectors Declining, 5 Sectors Rising
  • 43.8% of Issues Advancing, 54.0% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms .99 +5.3%
  • Non-Block Money Flow +$42.9M
  • 61 New 52-Week Highs, 13 New Lows
  • 60.6% (-1.3%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 55.9 -2.9
Polymarket:
  • Supreme Court Rules in Favor of Trump's Tariffs? 27.0% unch.
  • Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31st? 26.0% unch.
  • Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 14.0% -1.0 percentage point
  • US-Venezuela military engagement by Dec. 31st 44.0% unch.
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 91.8 +.8%
  • US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 423.25 -4.5 basis points
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 256.2 +.7%
  • Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 162.8 +1.5%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 26.0 (MOVED TO FEAR FROM EXTREME FEAR) +1.0 point
  • 1-Day Vix 9.5 -19.5%
  • Vix 16.5 -4.3%
  • Total Put/Call .75 -16.7%