Wednesday, December 03, 2025

Thursday Watch

Around X:

  • @Business  
  • @ZeroHedge
  • @CNBC
  • Transports are breaking out. This delivery giant in the space deserves close attention, charts show.
  • Buy these consumer stocks that may get a boost from a Fed rate cut, says Evercore ISI.
  • Salesforce beats on earnings, issues better-than-expected revenue forecast 
  • Trump's South Korea tariff cuts are major boost for Hyundai and GM.
  • Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Salesforce, Five Below, C3. ai and more
    .
  • Congressional stock ownership is 'outrageous,' says Rep. Mike Levin, calling for ban
    .
  • Stock futures are little changed after markets closer higher as rate cut bets strengthen: Live updates
    .
  • Asia markets set to open mixed after Wall Street gains on cooler-than-expected jobs data and rate-cut hopes
    .
  • Thursday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session
    .
  • CNBC Daily Open: Once again, bad data is good news for market
      
      
  • @WSJ  
  • @TheTranscript
  • Snowflake CFO on the disappointing Q4 guide. "...on the 4Q guidance. All I would say is that 4Q is a little tricky in the sense that you're giving the 4Q guidance and the annual guidance at the same time. And so don't read too much into that". $SNOW: -8% AH.
  • $CRM CEO: ""We are raising fiscal year 2026 revenue guidance to $41.45 billion to $41.55 billion, and Q3 cRPO was exceptional, up 11% year-over-year at $29.4 billion, signaling a powerful pipeline of future revenue,".
  • @LauraLoomer
  • Not only is Biden National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan @jakejsullivan married to Democrat Rep. Maggie Goodlander, who is one of the Seditious 6, but Maggie Goodlander worked for Biden’s Attorney General Merrick Garland and Lisa Monaco at the DOJ. Lisa Monaco even attended the wedding of Sullivan and Goodlander. Goodlander gave a max donation of $2,800 to the Congressional campaign of Dan Driscoll when he ran for Congress in 2020. He is now the US Army Secretary.
  • @LaraLogan
  • @ProjectConstitu
  • @GlockfordFiles
  • @amuse
  • @OcraziocornPop
  • BREAKING: AG Pam Bondi is on Fox News complaining to Sean Hannity about illegal aliens destroying America. She says what the Biden administration did by allowing illegal aliens and unvetted aliens into our country was "CRIMINAL". IF IT'S CRIMINAL, WHY HASN'T ANYONE BEEN ARRESTED YET? 
  • @TonySeruga
  • @DeItaone
  • TRUMP ADMINISTRATION SHIFTS FOCUS TO ROBOTICS. Politico reports that after its AI push, the Trump administration is now turning attention to robotics. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has been meeting with robotics CEOs and is “all in” on accelerating the sector’s development, according to sources.
  • @Rasmussen_Poll
  • @Laurenboebert
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 63.5 -3.25 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 44.0 -1.75 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 103.9 USD/Metric Tonne -.3%. 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.82 +.04%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.3 -.1%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 92.9 +1.0%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.07% +1.0 basis point.
  • Japan 30-Year Yield 3.44% +1.0 basis point 
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.6 -.1%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.58%. 
  • S&P 500 futures +.01%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.07%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by consumer discretionary and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Afternoon on Lower Long-Term Rates, Rising Fed Rate-Cut Odds, Short-Covering, Financial/Transport Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.3 +.1%
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.06% -3.0 basis points
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.72% -3.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 104.5 USD/Metric Tonne +.2%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 28.2 euros/megawatt-hour +.6%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 2.8 -8.7 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 24.8 +7.4 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 27.4 +2.1 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(487 of 500 reporting) +13.0% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 305.44 +.09:  Growth Rate +13.6% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.4 +.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.49% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 10 reporting) +17.5% -.1 percentage point
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 509.07 +.40: Growth Rate +24.0% -1.2 percentage points, P/E 32.5 -.1
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .64 +3.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.47 +9.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.4 -.1
  • US Yield Curve 56.0 basis points (2s/10s) +.25 basis point
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.9% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 32.5% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.85% unch.: CPI YoY +2.96% unch.
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.57 -3.0 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.25 unch.
  • Highest target rate probability for Jan. 28th FOMC meeting: 64.8% (+.4 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for March 18th meeting: 43.0%(-2.8 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.75-4.0%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -94 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -56 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +83 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my industrial/biotech/consumer discretionary sector longs and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth +.2%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Computer Hardware -2.0% 2) Alt Energy -.6% 3) Video Gaming -.4%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • BWIN, ABVX, CNK, CHA, ADPT, NAMS, THO, OMDA, ULS, ARE, OS, ACHC, GTLB and PSTG
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) IRBT 2) PSTG 3) AA 4) AR 5) DG
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) PYPL 2) ACHC 3) PSTG 4) ARE 5) GTLB
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) PSI 2) XLF 3) XBI 4) XLU 5) PKB

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Small-Cap Value +1.7%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Oil Service +3.7% 2) Airlines +2.8% 3) Road & Rail +2.6%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • CAPR, MPLT, AHMA, AEVA, PHVS, AEO, FTRE, KALV, KMTS, IE, ADUR, IMNM, SITM, GENI, ARWR, SERV, CRCL, QNST, MCHP, NBR, VERA, ON, TERN, DRVN, PRCT, ENR, AA, TEX, BBW, DKS, CBLL, WERN, NVCR, WERN, AMKR, IREN, CPRI, VRTX, DIOD, ZD, MRVL, SMMT, VAL, JANX, SN, BOX, ODFL, BMY, FOXF, ELF, ASAN, ALK, STM, SCVL, FIGS, BWLP, NXPI, AAUC, OKTA, BKV, SD, BDC, AUGO, EGBN, NCNO, FIVE, CAI, FCX, BMNR, FISV, DXYZ, ZUMZ, ALAB, PVH, DEPU, QXO, KNX, SYNA, ASIX, LLYVK, VYX, RAL, VERX, TOST, SBLK, CAVA, SPR, NESR, DLTR, VALE, OI, AEBI, ATXS and SPR
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) IRBT 2) CRH 3) BOX 4) PSTG 5) VOD 
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) AEO 2) MRVL 3) ALAB 4) UNH 5) IRBT
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) XLV 2) MAGS 3) XLE 4) SOXX 5) SILJ
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (BMO)/2.16
  • (BF/B)/.48
  • (CM)/.48
  • (DG)/.95
  • (DCI)/.92
  • (HRL)/.30
  • (HOV)/.63
  • (KR)/1.03
  • (TD)/1.43
  • (RH)/2.16 
After the Close: 
  • (AGX)/2.04
  • (COO)/1.11
  • (DOCU)/.92
  • (HPE)/.58
  • (RBRK)/-.17
  • (S)/.05
  • (SWBI)/.02
  • (SFIX)/-.05
  • (ULTA)/4.61
  • (ZUMZ)/.27 
Economic Release 
7:30 am EST
  • Challenger Job Cuts YoY for Nov. 

8:30 am EST

  • Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated to rise to 220K versus 216K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims is estimated to rise to 1961K versus 1960K prior. 

Upcoming Splits

  • (NOW) 5-for-1
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Bowman speaking, Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 update, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, Goldman Sachs Industrials/Autos Conference, Barclays Eat/Sleep/Play/Shop Conference, UBS Tech/AI Conference, (WYNN) investor meeting, (NOW) shareholders meeting and the Jefferies Renewables/Clean Energy Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -17.6% Below 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 13.8 +.7
  • 2 Sectors Declining, 9 Sectors Rising
  • 65.2% of Issues Advancing, 32.7% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms 1.05 -32.3%
  • Non-Block Money Flow +$140.3M
  • 82 New 52-Week Highs, 15 New Lows
  • 61.9% (+1.9%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 57.9 +2.0
Polymarket:
  • Supreme Court Rules in Favor of Trump's Tariffs? 26.0% -1.0 percentage point
  • Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31st? 28.0% +2.0 percentage points
  • Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 15.0% +1.0 percentage point
  • US-Venezuela military engagement by Dec. 31st 45.0% +1.0 percentage point
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 91.7 +.3%
  • US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 417.5 -5.75 basis points
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 257.7 +.8%
  • Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 160.6 -.8%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 27.0 (FEAR) +1.0 point
  • 1-Day Vix 9.1 -12.7%
  • Vix 16.3 -2.0%
  • Total Put/Call .80 +2.6%