Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Rising Long-Term Rates, Technical Selling, Profit-Taking, Medical/Homebuilding Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.16 -.06%
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.17% +3.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.70% +1.0 basis point

• China Iron Ore Spot 101.4 USD/Metric Tonne -.7%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 26.9 euros/megawatt-hour -1.5%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 132.0 +1.2 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 32.3 +2.3 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 29.7 +.2 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(495 of 500 reporting) +12.9% unch.
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 306.03 +.33:  Growth Rate +13.7% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.4 -.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.49% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 10 reporting) +17.5% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 510.48 +.79: Growth Rate +24.4% +.2 percentage point, P/E 32.5 -.1
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .73 +4.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.46 unch.
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 2.2 +.3
• US Yield Curve 59.0 basis points (2s/10s) +1.5 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.5% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 28.5% -1.3 percentage points

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.76% -9.0 basis points: CPI YoY +2.96% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.56 -4.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.27 unch.
• Highest target rate probability for Jan. 28th FOMC meeting: 68.5% (+3.1 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for March 18th meeting: 49.5%(+2.6 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.75-4.0%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -91 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -57 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -3 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my consumer financial/tech sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts 
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -.6%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Medical Equipment -1.7% 2) Homebuilding -1.3% 3) Gold & Silver -1.3%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• WLY, FOXF, MCHB, PHR, INCY, NFLX, RGR, ASIX, CEVA, MAT, PRCT, GWRE, MGPI, ITT, DG, UL, LAZ, MRVL, OMDA, APD, RIGL, LEGN and SUPX

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) CFLT 2) SNY 3) FLG 4) TFC 5) AAOI

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) MRVL 2) JYD 3) FUN 4) TSLA 5) VIRC

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) KRE 2) XLP 3) IYW 4) IYF 5) XLK

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth unch.

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Networking +1.6% 2) Gambling +1.5% 3) Electric Vehicles +1.1%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• WVE, GPCR, FULC, KYMR, CFLT, OCUL, DBVT, NRIX, LBRX, WRBY, CGEM, CVNA, ARWR, CAPR, HE, DYN, SGML, ACLX, PRAX, FLEX, AXTI, IMAX, HLIT, PSKY, CNK, SATS, CWST, PRIM, U, CRMD, MNMD, HNRG, TYRA, GTLB, TERN, CRH, PDFS, OMCL, AMBA, INSP, HTFL, CBLL, TTAN, WPP, CIEN, APPN, ALSN and WBD

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) WRBY 2) WVE 3) CFLT 4) VSAT 5) OCUL 

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) WVE 2) FULC 3) CVNA 4) KYMR 5) CFLT

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) ARKK 2) COPX 3) IYG 4) XLU 5) XRT

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (ASO)/1.06
• (AZO)/32.71
• (CPB)/.74
• (CCNM)/.73
• (GIII)/1.61
• (KFY)/1.31
• (OLLI)/.74

After the Close: 

• (AVAV)/.78
• (CASY)/5.19
• (CBRL)/-.79
• (PLAY)/-1.05
• (GME)/.20 

Economic Release 

6:00 am EST

• The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for Nov. is estimated to rise to 98.3 versus 98.2 in Oct.

10:00 am EST

• The Leading Index for Sept. is estimated to fall -.3%.
• JOLTS Job Openings for Oct. is estimated at 7115K. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The 10Y T-Note auction, weekly US retail sales reports, EIA short-term energy outlook, WASDE report, weekly API crude oil stock report, Goldman Sachs Financial Services Conference, Barclays Tech Conference, Wells Fargo Energy/Power Conference, Raymond James TMT/Consumer Conference, (LGND) investor day, (XOM) business update, (ELAN) investor meeting, (ANDE) investor day, (HD) investor meeting, (CVS) investor day, (PANW) annual meeting and the (GEV) investor meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -13.1% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 15.6 +3.9
• 9 Sectors Declining, 2 Sectors Rising
• 36.5% of Issues Advancing, 61.2% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .74 -41.7%
• Non-Block Money Flow -$150.2M
  
• 78 New 52-Week Highs, 32 New Lows
• 61.2% (-1.3%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 55.0 -3.1

Polymarket:

• Supreme Court Rules in Favor of Trump's Tariffs? 27.0% -1.0 percentage point
• Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31st? 33.0% +1.0 percentage point
• Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 15.0% +1.0 percentage point
• US-Venezuela military engagement by Dec. 31st 30.0% -3.0 percentage points

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 95.56 +.4%
• US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 418.5 +2.75 basis points
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 259.4 -.3%
  
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 164.0 +.8%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 34.0 (FEAR) -6.0 points
• 1-Day Vix 9.2 -7.5%
  
• Vix 16.8 +8.8%
  
• Total Put/Call .83 +10.7%

Monday Watch

Around X:

• @Business   

• Starmer will host Zelenskiy in London on Monday as the UK prime minister and other key European leaders seek to steer US-led peace talks toward a resolution.
• Japan’s economy shrank in the three months through September, the government confirmed in a revised report, giving further justification for Takaichi’s stimulus package.
• Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said China has gotten approximately “a third” of the way through its soybean purchase commitment for this growing season. 
• Trump said Netflix’s planned acquisition of Warner Bros. will require a review, noting that the deal would create an entity with “a lot of market share".
• Silver and copper have replaced gold as the hot metal trade heading into 2026, with institutional and retail traders positioning for record rallies. 
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.  
• Here's what you need to know to start your day.

• @Zerohedge

• China & Japan Narrowly Avoid Live Fire Conflict After F-15 Radar Lock Incident.
• LLMs : woke, autistic, depressed and borderline sociopathic.
• Freshly Pardoned Cuellar Says Biden DOJ Tried To Entrap Him; Trump Lashes Out Over 'Lack Of Loyalty'.
• Morgan Stanley Responds To Client Pushback On Its 2026 Forecasts.
• Russia Stands "Shoulder To Shoulder" With Venezuela, Blasts US War Footing.
• Mainstream Media Jumps On Bogus Narrative That J6 Pipe Bomber Was A Trump Supporter. 
• "Everyone Who Has Already Gone All-In On AI Knows That Losing Isn't An Option".
• 'Twas The Night Before Fed Day...  
• Barclays Asks: Netflix-Warner Bros Deal - Holy Grail... Or Poisoned Chalice?
• *BESSENT SAYS HE EXPECTS INFLATION TO ROLL DOWN STRONGLY NEXT YR.
• 'Fourth Reich': Musk Strikes Back At EU 'Tyrants' After X Fine.
• *US, ISRAEL AND QATAR HOLD SECRET MEETING IN NEW YORK: AXIOS.
• Censorship in Europe. Our investigation about @Vitaliy_Klychko owning a network of brothels in Ukraine got 6 million views on X. But one country blocked it - Germany. According to Die Welt, 50% of brothel employees in Berlin are ukrainians. Klychko has german citizenship. I called on the authorities of Europe to investigate and stop human trafficking, but the German authorities decided to cover up the criminals. 
• In connection with my trip to Europe this week, I asked the @StateDept whether the nations of Europe had provided more money to (a) Russia or (b) Ukraine between the invasion in February 2022 and President Trump’s return to office in January 2025. I was surprised that the answer was Russia, and by a long shot! I knew many of these countries had tied their energy fortunes to Russia, but I had no idea of the extent of it, or how (collectively) it dwarfed their aid to Ukraine. Please see the chart below. The money sent to Russia is in blue; the money sent to Ukraine is in orange. 
• As The Year Ends, What Does 2026 Hold. 
• Climate Groups Falter, Bill Gates Recalibrates, But Al Gore Soldiers On.
• French Government Plan To 'Label' News Outlets Backfires Spectacularly.
• Pro-Israel Forces Intensify Effort To Control American Discourse.  

• @CNBC

• CNBC Daily Open: Everyone's watching the Netflix deal.
• Asia-Pacific markets set to open mostly higher as investors look toward China trade data.
• Stock futures are little changed after Wall Street notches back-to-back winning weeks: Live updates.  
• Bessent says U.S. will finish the year with 3% GDP growth, sees 'very strong' holiday season.

• @WSJ.com

• Our cheat sheet to the major companies jostling for position in the fast-growing market for AI chips.
• Local retailers say early holiday shopping results are surprisingly good, with more lower-priced gifts, fewer holiday-themed items and an emphasis on joy.
• Exclusive: The Trump administration is prodding ranchers and meatpackers to do something about soaring beef prices, while looking at increasing imports from Mexico and South America. 

• @Barron's 

• Had bullish commentary on (CASY) and (WY).

• @GatewayPundit

• BREAKING: Clinton Judge Blocks Prosecutors From Accessing Key Evidence in Criminal Case Against James Comey.
• BREAKING: Tina Peters Physical Condition Is Declining After More Than a Year of Physical and Emotional Abuse.

• @MarioNawful

• DAVID SACKS: "ELON SEEMS TO BE ABLE TO SCALE HIS DATA CENTER THE FASTEST". While OpenAI and Google carefully plan their AI infrastructure, Elon is doing what he does best: building absurdly massive supercomputers at breakneck speed. David Sacks, Trump's AI and crypto czar, thinks Elon's xAI might be quietly winning the race: "We've got xAI, which I think is the best at current events because of the integration with X. Elon seems to be able to scale his data center, his training cluster, the fastest.
• U.S. BILL TARGETS EU AND BRAZIL FOR ONLINE CENSORSHIP: "CENSOR AN AMERICAN, PAY MILLIONS". The GRANITE Act, Guaranteeing Rights Against Novel International Tyranny & Extortion, is exploding: Already filed in Wyoming and New Hampshire, U.S. Under Sec Sarah Rogers told a federal version is "on the verge" of House introduction after UK's Ofcom threats and EU's $150M slap on X crossed Trump's "red line." The bill nukes foreign sovereign immunity for any government censoring Americans, letting victims sue for treble damages or minimum $10M per violation. This directly targeting Brussels' DSA fines and Brazil's Justice de Moraes banning X/Rumble while jailing critics. EU commissars and Brazilian dictators think they can gag Americans from afar because sovereign immunity shields them. GRANITE unravels that shield, turning every censorship order into a multi-million-dollar U.S. lawsuit jackpot.  
• THE WHITE HOUSE DROPPED A DOOMSDAY MAP FOR EUROPE (AND IT READS LIKE A GEOPOLITICAL AUTOPSY). Migration, birthrates, NATO loyalty, “civilizational erasure” - Washington just put it all on paper. The new National Security Strategy is supposed to be dry, diplomatic, a little boring. This one? It’s a flare gun fired straight over Brussels. The document claims Europe could be “unrecognizable” in under 20 years if migration trends continue - not just culturally, but strategically.   

• @EmeraldRobinson

• 1. A few weeks before the 2024 election, @SenMullin and former Senator David Perdue finally arranged a meeting between Trump advisor Susie Wiles and the one man who could explain exactly how America’s election systems are rigged. The meeting took place at Mar-a-Lago. (thread)
• More proof: @realDonaldTrump does not have control of the CIA. 

• @disclosetv

• NEW - Gates says African farmers will have AI advisors, along with "better seeds and animal genetics" to become a "significant net food exporter." Using AI and their phone, they will be able to talk to the "doctor," the "tutor," the "farm advisor" and "pay nothing for it." (video)

• @TheSCIF

• This is just ONE reason why people don't believe the official narrative about the Charlie Kirk assassination. They're trying too hard and keep getting caught in lies. People make mistakes, and maybe Jack assumed it was Tyler in the picture, but what if it wasn't a mistake, and you don't verify your sources? There are so many things that we now know that point to a military style operation. The secrecy surrounding this, all the lies that are being exposed, the foul play inside TPUSA, all the whistleblowers coming out, the foreign connections, etc., I could literally go on for days... I was born at night, but not last night, and I wouldn't be genuine with you if I told you that Tlyer Robinson acted alone and was definitely guilty.
• Sen. Markwayne Mullin tells @bennyjohnson that multiple foreign countries may have complete inside access to ALL of our VOTING MACHINES and our ENTIRE ELECTION SYSTEM. These countries include Venezuela, China, and Russia. A recent Venezuelan intel officer whistleblower has also stated that Russia has tapped into our underwater communication sea cables and has had access to our military comms since 2015. "Whoever designed the system can enter into those machines with the master key. Venezuela, China, and Russia are trying to sow doubt into our election system. They are planning on doing so." (video) 

• @newstart_2024 

• The most dangerous 77 seconds ever recorded by a psychiatrist just broke containment again. Thomas Szasz, the man the entire profession tried to erase, looked straight into the camera and said: “We do not have an epidemic of mental illness. We have an epidemic of psychiatry.” Too fat → illness. Too thin → illness. Too happy, too sad, too much sex, too little sex → all illnesses. No free will, no responsibility left — only “chemical imbalances” fixed by products you can advertise on TV while alcohol cannot. This forgotten 1:17 clip is now exploding across every timeline for a reason. Watch the forbidden interview while it’s still up. (video)

• @BreannaMorello

• Stop showing me the corruption without showing me the arrests.

• @FreeStateWill

• President Trump ordered Pam Bondi to correct past misconduct related to the weaponization of government against J6ers and to recommend appropriate remedial actions. But to date, there have been no remedial actions to provide restitution to the lives that were crushed by the DOJ.

• @TonySeruga

• GPS—one of accused J6 pipe bomber Brian Cole Jr.’s devices visited 1333 H Street NW, Washington, D.C. over 90 times between November 10, 2019 to January 3, 2020, then never again. Notable businesses there: John Podesta’s Center for American Progress (CAP). Democracy Forward (non-profit focused on government accountability and legal advocacy). Pivotal Ventures (philanthropy and advocacy firm founded by Melinda French Gates). Tony Blair Institute for Global Change (policy advisory non-profit).

• @PatrickByrne

• The election integrity movement is overlooking a crucial item: it is not enough to get rid of mail-in voting, and machines, and go to paper only, and count them transparently. In addition: the ballots need to be counted where they are cast! No transport of uncounted ballots.

• @barnes_law

• Jocelyn Ballentine was the prosecutor in the @Genflynn unlawful lawfare prosecution on behalf of the Deep State, the Proud Boys Seditious Conspiracy @Nobleone on behalf of Pelosi and the rest of the Deep State and now Ballentine is the prosecutor in the Pipe Bomber prosecution. Knowing this, how would you describe Pam, Todd, Pirro, Kash and Dan? Utterly disgraceful that this rogue prosecutor is still in power in DC.
  @USAttyPirro is turning out as useless as @PamBondi & that is truly saying something.

• @Globalsurv

• BREAKING ; JAPAN WILL DEFEND TAIWAN". Japanese officials claim the country will be first to defend TAIWAN from CHINESE military attack!! JAPAN will deploy medium-range missiles to Yonaguni Island, just 110 km from TAIWAN, as part of a broader military buildup aimed at deterring CHINA. (video)

• @LaraLogan

• The lunatics have taken over & they are running the asylum. This is about eliminating the natural food supply so they can control humanity. (pic)

• @jsolomonReports

• 'Historic': Medical school pays students, employees $10M to end forced COVID vaccination lawsuit.

• @RenzTom

• It appears Venezuela is stealing our elections (with the Democrats) and we are on the brink of war there, yet our AG refuses to investigate intel related to all this. This is incredible to me. If we do not win the midterms, Trump will be impeached. He may not control Congress, but Trump can order the DOJ to act. Trump’s AG is letting him get set up for impeachment and still isn’t being fired.

• @Real_RobN

• This is: Antifa member and Vice President of Strategy and Security at Dominion Voting Systems, Ph.D. Eric Coomer, is going to be deposed under penalty of perjury in January 2026.
• You think James Comey was corrupt? Just wait — Christopher Wray covered up the attempted overthrow in 2016, oversaw the overthrow in 2020, and covered up the overthrow on January 6 • Christopher Wray had the 2020 election server. • Christopher Wray had Huma Abedin’s laptop. • Christopher Wray had Seth Rich’s laptop. • Christopher Wray had Hunter Biden’s laptop. • Christopher Wray had Jeffrey Epstein’s files. • Christopher Wray had Democrat intel staffer’s 302 — Adam Schiff personally authorized leaking classified intelligence, • Christopher Wray even had intelligence that the CCP interfered in the 2020 election with fake ballots and driver’s licenses, effectively overthrowing the United States government on November 3, 2020. He buried it and then ordered agents to destroy the intelligence. And: Christopher Wray testified that he couldn’t identify the January 6 Pipe Bomber — despite having the license plate, cell phone metadata, credit card records, and surveillance footage from the crime scenes over the course of four years. He in fact covered it up by claiming the cell phone metadata was corrupted.
• This is: Sidney Katherine Powell, who filed four lawsuits against the overthrow of the United States government on Nov. 3, 2020. VINDICATED. (video)

• @ValerieAnne1970 

• Just days after Prof Francis Boyle agreed to testify against Bill Gates & Albert Bourla over the deadly COVID mRNA shots...he was FOUND DEAD. Boyle authored the US Bioweapons Act & called the mRNA injections 'Bioweapons & Franken-Shots.'

• @hodgetwins

• This is why people think the Democrats will take the mid terms. We won’t arrest the real criminals. (pic)

• @pepesgrandma

• Smartmatic, in the Philippine house, admits that electronic election data could be deleted in the middle of the night, and nobody would even know. When Smartmatic was forced to sell in the US over its Venezuela links, it retained the Intellectual Property of its software. This software ran on machines in our 2020 election and continues today. Well the founder of Smartmatic was just arrested over money laundering and bribery charges in the Philippines. This must not end with just this. (video)

• @ElofsonJess

• Arrest just one of the millionaire criminals and the R's chances go up by 10. Arrest 1000 and the R's will hold power for a generation. This is Trump's to lose. Closing the border, great. Tariffs, great. But it's not enough without consequences for the elite that have profited off our death and misery. You're welcome. Long Live The Republic. (video)

• @DowdEdward

• A large portion of the electorate that voted for Trump want to see the Covid 19 whistleblower case against Pfizer move forward. Add this to the strategic fumbles heading into midterms.

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 63.75 unch.
• China Sovereign CDS 42.25 -.5 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 102.6 USD/Metric Tonne -.8%.
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.80 +.1% 
  
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.19 +.01%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 95.3 +.1%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.13% unch. 
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.39% +3.0 basis points. 
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.3 +.1%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.1%.
• S&P 500 futures +.12%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.19%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.