Stocks Modestly Lower into Final Hour on AI Infrastructure Build-Out Concerns, Returning Crypto Worries, Technical Selling, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.15 +.01%
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.18% unch.
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.62% +1.0 basis point

• China Iron Ore Spot 102.5 USD/Metric Tonne +.5%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 27.4 euros/megawatt-hour -.9%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 11.0 -5.3 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 30.8 -.5 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 31.2 -3.0 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(2 of 500 reporting) +41.3% unch.
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 307.11 -.29:  Growth Rate +14.1% -.1 percentage point, P/E 22.2 unch.
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.49% -25.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) +n/a +n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 515.95 +4.52: Growth Rate +25.6% +1.0 percentage point, P/E 30.7 -.9
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .72 -5.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.35 -6.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.5 -.2
• US Yield Curve 67.25 basis points (2s/10s) +1.25 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.6% +10.0 basis points
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 27.3% -.2 percentage point

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.76% unch.: CPI YoY +2.96% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.38 -4.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.26 -2.0 basis points
• Highest target rate probability for March 18th FOMC meeting: 48.9% (-1.6 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for April 29th meeting: 44.3%(+.8 percentage point) chance of 3.25%-3.5%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +130 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -34 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -16 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my consumer discretionary/utility/industrial sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -.6%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Computer Hardware -1.8% 2) Alt Energy -1.5% 3) Energy -1.4%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• ONC, SLDE, ARGX, CXT, COST, KRP, TXO, FEIM, TLRY, ACLX, GWRE, AVGO, FLY, LENZ, CSGP, ZG, Z, DXYZ, PVLA and NOW

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) NEXT 2) CGC 3) LAZR 4) MIST 5) GLXY

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) IRBT 2) NOW 3) ZG 4) CSGP 5) TLRY

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) FXR 2) SMH 3) IBB 4) XBI 5) XLI

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.1%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Pharma +1.7% 2) Utilities +.7% 3) Restaurants +.6%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• KYTX, IMNM, VOR, ZIM, ANF, OXM, CMP, AEO, GME, RIVN, CBLL, TBD, FOLD, MAZE, TSLA, ORLA, MOD, AXTI, TIGO, RGNX, EVCM, ADUR, CPRX, DOCS and NTNX

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) EWY 2) CMA 3) Z 4) CGC 5) GOSS 

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) TSLA 2) KLAC 3) ZIM 4) BMY 5) ACRE

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) MISL 2) XLK 3) XLF 4) XLC 5) SILJ

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• None of note

After the Close: 

• (LEN)/2.21
• (WOR)/.70 

Economic Release 

8:30 am EST

• ADP Weekly Employment Preliminary Estimate.
• The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for Nov. is estimated at 50K.
• Average Hourly Earnings MoM for Nov. is estimated to rise +.3%.
• The Unemployment Rate for Nov. is estimated at 4.5%. 
• Retail Sales Advance MoM for Oct. is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.2% gain in Sept.
• Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM for Oct. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.3% gain in Sept.
• Retail Sales Ex Autos and Gas MoM for Oct. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a -.1% decline in Sept.
• NY Fed Services Business Activity for Dec. 

9:45 am EST

• S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI for Dec. is estimated to fall to 52.0 versus 52.2 in Nov.
• S&P Global US Services PMI for Dec. is estimated to fall to 54.0 versus 54.1 in Nov.
• S&P Global US Composite PMI for Dec. is estimated to fall to 53.9 versus 54.2 in Nov. 

10:00 am EST

• Business Inventories for Sept. is estimated to rise +.1% versus unch. in Aug. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The weekly US retail sales reports, weekly API crude oil stock report, (WOLF) annual meeting, (VITL) investor day and the (CSCO) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -11.1% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 13.3 +.9
• 7 Sectors Declining, 4 Sectors Rising
• 41.8% of Issues Advancing, 55.7% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.08 +54.3%
• Non-Block Money Flow +$148.5M
  
• 102 New 52-Week Highs, 32 New Lows
• 64.1% (-1.3%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 61.3 -3.7

Polymarket:

• Supreme Court Rules in Favor of Trump's Tariffs? 27.0% unch.
• Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31st? 33.0% -1.0 percentage point
• Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 14.0% unch.
• US-Venezuela military engagement by Jan. 31st 31.0% -7.0 percentage points

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 93.9 -2.1%
• US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 430.75 +3.75 basis point
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 263.9 +.1%
  
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 158.2 +.1%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 43.0 (FEAR) +1.0
• 1-Day Vix 12.3 -1.3%
  
• Vix 16.8 +6.6%
  
• Total Put/Call .90 unch.

Monday Watch

Around X:

• @Business   

• Distressed developer China Vanke said it would improve on plans to push back a looming bond payment after creditors balked at its initial proposal, raising the risk of default.
• iRobot has filed for bankruptcy after reaching a restructuring support agreement that will hand control of the consumer robot maker to Shenzhen PICEA, its main supplier and lender, and Santrum Hong Kong.
• Confidence among Japan’s large manufacturers rose to the highest level in four years, reinforcing market expectations for the BOJ to raise interest rates this week
  .
• Gold steadied following four days of gains, after conflicting remarks from Federal Reserve officials prompted traders to curb bets on further monetary easing in the US next year.
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.
• Here's what you need to know to start your day
  . 

• @Zerohedge

• DC Pipe Bomb Arrest Raises Questions About Christopher Wray's FBI.
• Top Goldman Tech Trader Highlights 5 Key Factors Into 'Catalyst Heavy' Week. 
• ICE Announces Arrest Of 400 Illegal Immigrants In Minnesota.
• this is a huge, and potentially very bullish, development for both AI (now that it is extremely reliant on credit access) and private credit.
• Booms/Busts Have Become The Norm: BofA Breaks Down The New Bubble Era.
• Goldman Desk: "The Forceful Rotation Below The Surface Has Been A Shock For Many Portfolios".
• Santa Vs The Grinch, Diets, & QE.    
• Four Key Questions Driving Data Center Power Demand.
• Morgan Stanley Reveals The Profound Implications Of Last Week's "Pivotal" Credit Deregulation Announcement.
• Brown University Shooting: Benjamin Erickson Reportedly Identified As Person Of Interest.
• 16 Dead, 38 Injured After Father & Son Terrorists Attack Sydney Jewish Celebration.
• Watch: Top Biden Official Belatedly Admits Ukraine War Truth Bombshell.
• Brown University Shooting Suspect Who "Yelled Something Unique" Before Attack On Jewish Studies Classroom Traveled From Wisconsin.
• Liam Neeson, MAHA Ally? Narrates RFK Jr. Doc Slamming Lockdowns And COVID Jabs.     
• Luxury Cars, Private Villas And Stacks Of Cash: How Somali Fraudsters Spent Minnesotans' Money. 
• 83% Of Hungarians Fear Foreign Interference In 2026 Election; New Poll Finds.
• It's Official: Ditching The SATs Was A Big Mistake. 

• @CNBC

• CNBC Daily Open: Investors sell off tech despite steady Broadcom numbers.
• Copper could hit 'stratospheric new highs' as hoarding of the metal in U.S. continues.
• Asia-Pacific markets set for lower open ahead of key data from China and Japan.
• ServiceNow in talks to acquire cybersecurity startup Armis in potential $7 billion deal, Bloomberg reports.
• Stock futures are little changed as big week of economic data kicks off: Live updates. 
• Global week ahead: Europe under fire.

• @WSJ.com

• Watch: The Pentagon is testing portable 3D-printing labs in Hawaii that let soldiers design, print and assemble drones in hours–a bid to turn fragile supply lines into on-demand battlefield factories. 
• Exclusive: Chief executives of some of the world’s largest companies are all-in on artificial intelligence, even though many haven’t yet seen returns on their investments.
• Introducing the “AI explainer,” an expert who understands artificial intelligence deeply and can translate it into plain language for managers and others. 
• Heard on the Street: For banks and others in the U.S. financial system, the Federal Reserve’s next moves on the size of its balance sheet could matter even more than its decisions on rates. 

• @Barron's 

• Had bullish commentary on (CALM) and (CB).

• @MarioNawful

• BOMBS NOW - SYDNEY ATTACK ESCALATES FROM SHOOTING TO MULTI-VECTOR TERROR. This just got worse. NSW Police confirm a bomb disposal unit is operating at Bondi Beach after a vehicle near the scene was found with multiple suspected explosive devices inside. Read that again: This wasn’t just bullets. It was layers of attack. Police Commissioner Mal Lanyon says investigators believe the vehicle contained several explosives, turning what was already a mass-casualty attack into a failed secondary-strike scenario - the kind designed to kill first responders, extend panic, and dominate headlines for days. That changes the classification entirely. (video)
• BROWN UNIVERSITY SHOOTING: NO CAMERA FOOTAGE FROM SITE, POLICE WON’T EXPLAIN WHY. During a press conference in Providence, officials confirmed that there is no surveillance footage from inside the building where the shooting occurred at Brown University. The building sits on one of the most heavily surveilled campuses in Rhode Island, raising serious questions about the absence of video evidence. When asked about the security setup, the police chief said: “I’m not gonna comment. We shared what we have... we might find something. We gave what we have.” (video)
• OPINION: SCHOOLS ARE TEACHING KIDS TO HATE THEMSELVES... THIS HAS TO STOP. Some schools are teaching students to feel guilty just for being born a certain color. Kids are being pulled into weird lessons where "whiteness" equals privilege, privilege equals guilt, and guilt means you're the bad guy. It’s not about learning history anymore... it’s about turning classrooms into group therapy for shame no one signed up for. Instead of judging people by character, students are now being told their skin color decides their role: oppressor or oppressed. That’s not fighting racism. That's how racism works! You don’t fight injustice by inventing new ways to divide people. (video)
• CHINA RUSHES TO BUY NVIDIA AI CHIPS. Nvidia is thinking about making more H200 AI chips because Chinese tech giants like Alibaba and ByteDance moved fast to buy them once the U.S. reopened the door on exports. The H200 is an extremely powerful AI chip made by Nvidia and built by TSMC, and right now it is the strongest option Chinese companies can legally access. The U.S. government said Nvidia can export the H200 to China but must pay a 25% fee for letting the chips leave the country. China’s government is uneasy because local chip makers still lag behind, and officials are debating rules like forcing buyers to bundle domestic chips. 

• @ShadowofEzra

• Benjamin Netanyahu says Western governments must make immediate changes to stop antisemitism from spreading, amid the terrorist attack in Australia. He says leaders can no longer ignore the consequences of their rhetoric and policies. Netanyahu claims he warned Australia’s prime minister months ago that calls for a Palestinian state would fuel antisemitic attacks against Jewish people. "That's what Israel expects of each of your governments in the West". (video)

• @ProjectConstitu 

• EXPOSED: Erika Kirk's Bizarre CBS Excuse for Egyptian Surveillance Flights —She Debunks Claim NOBODY Made About Egyptian Planes! Why So Defensive? Erika Kirk just went on a PRE-STAGED CBS Town Hall (complete with Deep State favorite Bari Weiss as the "interviewer") and delivered the most tone-deaf, strawman-filled rant yet about the Egyptian planes tracking her. (video)

• @JimFergusonUK

• POLICE OFFICERS DID NOT RETURN FIRE AT TERRORISTS. An eyewitness says the shooting went on for nearly 20 minutes. Two attackers. Repeated reloads. Sustained fire into a crowd of civilians. And yet — according to that testimony — four armed police officers were present and did not return fire. That fact alone demands serious, immediate answers. Why was no return fire initiated? Were officers ordered to stand down? Were they waiting for authorisation? Were they inadequately equipped? Was there a command failure? These are not accusations. They are necessary questions when civilians are being shot for 20 minutes in a public space.

• @annvandersteel

• BREAKING: There are now TWO STUDENTS who survived the shooting at Brown University in Rhode Island tonight that also supposedly survived two other well-known mass shootings: Zoe Weissman, a Parkland survivor and now Mia Tretta (
  @mia_tretta), a hardcore gun control and anti-2nd Amendment activist who has met with disgraced former President Biden and just happened to be there tonight. Both have already been making the rounds on CNN and MSDNC pushing the gun control agenda in the immediate aftermath of surviving yet another mass shooting. Does anyone actually believe that this is a coincidence? We are talking about two completely different parts of the country, two alleged “repeat survivors” of mass shootings YEARS APART from one another. Call me a conspiracy theorist guys… But something just isn’t right about this. At what point do we just stop complying? There is something seriously wrong with everything. And I mean EVERYTHING.
• STOP LEANING ON VOTING: If Tina Peters' tragedy has taught us anything, its that THE UNIPARTY aren't above cheating our elections. Here are 10 hypothetical methods they have at their disposal: 1. Ballot stuffing: Adding fake ballots to boxes or digital tallies in favor of one candidate, historically seen in some 19th-20th century U.S. local elections or alleged in various global contexts....

• @Kagan_M_Dunlap

• Holy Hell They had a full 11 minute video showing the entire Bondi Beach, Australia event unfolding. (video)

• @DiligentDenizen

• You'll notice that they did NOT do half of these investigation measures for the Charlie Kirk shooting. That tells you EVERYTHING you need to know. (pic)

• @CollinRugg

• Man refuses to take cover and points at one of the Bondi Beach terrorists while the terrorist was trying to shoot innocent people. Witnesses say police officers completely froze during the terror attack and did nothing. “Twenty minutes, there was four policemen there. Nobody give fire back. Nothing. Like they froze. I don’t understand why,” said eyewitness Shmulik Scuri. “For 20 minutes. They shoot, shoot. Change magazines. And just shoot.” (video)

• @Mirandadevine

• Hero FBI whistleblower @RealStevefriend has been fired by @FBIDirectorKash. I can vouch for Steve's integrity, having known him since he blew the whistle on J6 excesses and other FBI malfeasance under Biden and Wray. Steve has been pushed past breaking point, after waiting out the Biden administration to receive justice, only to be slapped in the face, anonymously smeared, and betrayed by Kash Patel and Dan Bongino, who promised him the world until they were in a position to deliver. Now the FBI uses the excuse of hot talk on his friend's podcast to fire Steve.

• @LaraLogan

• FED JUDGE RULES TINA PETERS "MUST STAY IN PRISON" WHILE APPEALING CASE. "Since that ruling, that decision, Tina Peters has been attacked...a woman that never belonged there now facing violence." These judges deserve to burn in hell. They are vindictive & spiteful. And dishonest. Unfit for the bench. (video)

• @EricSpracklen

• There is SO MUCH footage of the Bondi beach attack. And many of the videos are from very close to the shooters. Where did all these videos come from??? Who films the shootings up close and personal and doesn’t run for their life? This is all so odd to me. (video)

• @RenzTom

• So Kash and everyone know that the CIA tried to overthrow our nation—why no arrests or prosecutions? (video)
• I’m MAGA and MAHA. I’ve fought hard for Trump and I’m pissed. Trump is being lied to, used, and set up. The midterms will be a disaster. Susie Wiles plans to send Trump to “campaign everywhere” so that when the do-nothing GOP gets trounced, Trump takes the blame.The President is amazing but has a terrible track record for hiring crooks like Pence and Barr. The base is nearly done. Trump must decide: continue listening to the snakes around him and supporting his do-nothing DOJ, or listen to the people who fought to get him there. You may not like this, but I’m still loyal to Trump. If I’m here, so is much of his base. If you’re loyal to @realDonaldTrump, ensure he hears the truth—not just what he wants. 

• @EricLDaugh

• BREAKING: President Trump is now saying “TRUCKLOADS” of evidence will be coming out proving the 2020 election was rigged. “We have all the ammunition, all the stuff, and you'll see it come out. It's coming out in truckloads.” Trump’s DOJ is also now suing FULTON COUNTY, GA over 2020 records. “California more than any other place is so rigged. It's such a rigged election — If the vote in California was legitimate, which it's not, they have 38 million ballots. Everything is mail-in voting.” If there’s NOTHING TO HIDE, it should ALL be released. (video)

• @ScottJenningsKY

• After the shooter was disarmed, the hero let him walk away. The shooter then went and picked up another gun and kept shooting until police finally shot him. The West is under attack. Wake up.

• @KobeissiLetter

• US natural gas pipeline construction is skyrocketing along the Gulf Coast: The Gulf Coast is set to add ~18 billion cubic feet per day of new natural gas pipeline capacity in 2026, the biggest one-year increase in 18 years. This represents a +13% jump in the region’s total capacity, the equivalent of Canada’s entire consumption, driven by 12 pipeline projects across Texas, Louisiana, and Oklahoma. In the past, the only larger expansion occurred at the peak of the shale-gas boom in 2008. The US' energy dominance is entering a new era. (graph)

• @GlockfordFiles

• A former Air Force environmental officer blows the whistle on what the government has been spraying in our atmosphere. Another “conspiracy theory” proven to be true.

• @WallStreetMav

• Acid attacks on white women has become common in Europe. It is now happening in the USA. It is most commonly committed by migrants from Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, Nigeria and Uganda. When will liberal women start voting with their own safety in mind?
• Paris is cancelling its Christmas festivities because the risk of Muslims blowing them up is too high. Islam doesn’t coexist, it violently conquers and subjugates the “infidels.” The latest estimates indicate that France’s population is 9-10% Muslim. Other countries should take note that even with 1-2%, you will begin to lose your country. By 9%, you will have to cancel your Christian traditions or you may be blown up. 

• @TRobinsonNewEra

• Jihad is coming for all western nations. (video)

• @RealDonKeith

• Australia took away its citizens’ guns, but 10 people at Bondi Beach are dead anyway because terrorists don’t care about gun laws. The only thing the Australian government did was make sure its unarmed, law-abiding, citizens are now sitting ducks, unable to defend themselves. (video)

• @MarinaMedvin

• The Brown University shooting occurred in the classroom of a Jewish professor who taught on “intersection of economics and Jewish studies.” One of the Brown students reported hearing the shooter speaking in Arabic.

• @MichelleMaxwell

• NEW: Rep. Tim Burchett just blew the whistle on Republican neocons sabotaging President Trump from inside Congress — and he did NOT hold back. Burchett says the biggest threat to Trump isn’t Democrats… It’s GOP lawmakers and staffers who secretly hate him and work to derail his agenda before the 2026 midterms. Here’s the breakdown:

• @BoLoudon

• BREAKING: President Trump could now sue MSNBC anchor Ana Cabrera into poverty for FALSELY claiming an image released by Democrats show Trump with minors. In reality, they were adult models promoting suntan lotion.

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -1.25% to -.5% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 64.75 +.25 basis point.
• China Sovereign CDS 43.0 +.25 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 100.8 USD/Metric Tonne -1.2%.
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.86 +.2% 
  
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.14 -.01%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 95.64 -.3%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.18% unch. 
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.37% +1.0 basis point. 
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.6 +.1%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.38%.
• S&P 500 futures +.22%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.20%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.