Sunday, December 21, 2025

Monday Watch

Around X:

  • @Business   
  • @Zerohedge
  • @CNBC
  • @WSJ.com
  • @Barron's 
  • Had bullish commentary on (TSLA) and (BURL).
  • @GatewayPundit
  • @ShadowofEzra
  • @MikeBanzCyber
  • @TheSCIF
  • @TulsiGabbard
  • @BubbleBathgirl
  • @RenzTom
  • @drawandstrike
  • @its_The_Dr
  • @KariLake
  • @mattvanswol
  • @GenFlynn
  • The EU aka NATO (minus the United States) desperately wants war with Russia. @DNIGabbard can speak for herself and does in her typically courageous way (read below). First, our CIA is in cahoots with MI6 and others in the EU IC community. These and other warmongers in our own administration as well as the Congress want perpetual f’ing war. I’m personally sick of it. It’s been over ten (10) years now! Keep in mind we were in AFG and Iraq for twenty years and it cost us trillions along with a massive loss of prestige. THIS SH!T HAS TO STOP!
  • Les Wexner and an entire redacted right side of the photo. Victoria’s Secret? Elites apparently get away with the most disgusting behavior.
  • @lsferguson
  • @thehealthb0t
  • @FAMS_AMNC
  • @KobeissiLetter
  • Global money supply is out of control: Global money supply is now up to a record $45 trillion. This comes as China's M1 money supply has risen to $16.5 trillion, an all-time high. China has driven the majority of global money supply growth this year. China is currently the largest producer of narrow money in the world, accounting for ~37% of the total. Meanwhile, the US M1 money supply, excluding savings deposits, is up to a record $8 trillion, representing ~18% of the world's total. Global liquidity is expanding. (graph)
  • @WarClandestine
  • @Rasmussen_Poll
  • @annvandersteel
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are +.75% to +1.75% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 65.0 -.5 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 43.5 -.5 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 104.10 USD/Metric Tonne -.6%.
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.85 -.02% 
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.05 -.05%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 98.2 +1.2%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.16% +2.0 basis points. 
  • Japan 30-Year Yield 3.45% +2.0 basis points. 
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 17.2 -1.7%. 
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.07%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.27%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.43%.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Friday, December 19, 2025

Evening Headlines

Around X:

  • @Business 
  • @Zerohedge 
  • @WSJ
  • @CNBC  
  • @MarioNawfal
  • BREAKING: POLICE STOOD OUTSIDE WHILE BROWN UNIVERSITY SHOOTER ESCAPED. While students screamed and victims lay shot, Providence cops stood outside deciding where to park. Their radio chatter sounds like a bad improv skit. One officer talked about needing a day off. Another didn’t even know what building they were at. Meanwhile, no one had info on the shooter, and no one was rushing in. The suspect eventually slipped away. 10 were shot. 2 died. Brown University and the police failed, and now families are furious. And rightfully so! It wasn’t just chaos. It was incompetence with a badge, and the price was paid in blood. (audio)
  • @TheSCIF
  • @realLizUSA
  • @RenzTom
  • @ClayTravis
  • @Rasmussen_Poll
  • @OcrazioCornPop
  • @NickSortor
  • @catturd2
  • @Dmytruk_Artem
  • @amuse
  • @HustleBitch_
  • @EricLDaugh
  • @angertab
  • @listen_2learn
  • @realdefender45
OpenVAERS:  
SKirsch.com:

Weekly Scoreboard*


S&P 500 6,835.8 +.2%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

  • DJIA 48,241.6 -.4%
  • NASDAQ 23,288.9 +.4%
  • Russell 2000 2,528.1 -.8%
  • NYSE FANG+ 15,874.2 -1.6%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 244.4 -2.5%
  • Vaneck Social Sentiment 33.5 -.6%
  • Wilshire 5000 67,555.5 +.11%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 4,761.8 +.4%
  • Russell 1000 Value 2,073.2 -.2%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 872.7 -.8%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index(Ex Telecom) 265.7 +.7%
  • NYSE Technology 7,366.6 +.54%
  • Transports 17,507.7 +.4%
  • Utilities 1,070.2 +.2%
  • MSCI Europe Banks 110.7 +3.5%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 53.65 -.9%
  • Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 249.0 -.13%
  • Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 129.1 +.2%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 587,491 -.4%
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 8.7 +28.8%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 128 -1,500
  • Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -8.7 -.8%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 51,037 -7.2%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,914,667 +1.3%
  • Total Put/Call .81 -10.0%
  • OEX Put/Call 1.16 unch.
  • ISE Sentiment 130.0 -27.5%
  • NYSE Arms .86 +20.0%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 96.8 +1.0%
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .63 -14.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index 1.51 +10.0 basis points
  • Volatility(VIX) 15.3 -3.0%
  • S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .61 -57.9%
  • CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 13.9 -1.1%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 6.6 -3.8%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 6.4 +1.3%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 21,205.7 +1.7%
  • NAAIM Exposure Index  100.7 +14.1
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $7.666 Trillion +.14%
  • ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows +$7.334 Million
  • AAII % Bulls 44.1 -1.1%
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 293.2 -2.5%
  • Crude Oil 56.7/bbl. -1.3%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 170.9 -2.4%
  • Natural Gas 3.99 -3.0%
  • US Power PJM Western Hub Peak Forward Y1 65.3 USD/Megawatt -5.6% 
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 28.2 euros/megawatt-hour +2.2%
  • Heating Oil 212.8 -3.1% 
  • Newcastle Coal 105.0 (1,000/metric ton) unch.
  • Gold 4,347.7 +1.3%
  • Silver 67.2 +8.6%
  • S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 527.5 +1.5%
  • Copper 550.2 +2.8%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 367.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.3%
  • China Iron Ore Spot 104.0 USD/Metric Tonne +2.5%
  • China Battery Grade Lithium Carbonate 13,125.0 USD/metric tonne +2.7%
  • CME Lumber  559.0 -.1%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,319.9 -2.1%
  • US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 310.0 USD/Short Ton +.7%
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.5% -.1 percentage point
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 28.2 +1.0 percentage point
  • NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 2.3 unch.
  • US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 385.7 -40.0%
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.5 -9.1%
  • DOGE Total Taxpayer Dollars Saved $214.0 Billion($1,329.19 Savings Per Taxpayer) unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(16 of 500 reporting) +32.8% +n/a percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 309.0 +n/a:  Growth Rate +14.8% +n/a percentage points, P/E 21.9 +n/a
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.51% +1.0 basis point
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) +17.6% +7.6 percentage points
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 517.45 +n/a: Growth Rate +25.9% +n/a percentage point, P/E 30.3 +n/a
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -.5 -16.8 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 30.4 -.9 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 30.8 -3.4 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 22.1%(-2.3 percentage points) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 3.25-3.5%, 77.9%(+2.3 percentage points) chance of no change, 0.0%(unch.) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 3.75-4.0% on 1/28/26
  • US Dollar Index 98.60 +.19%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,835.9 -.2%
  • Bitcoin/USD 87,088 -1.3%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 209.5 +1.0%
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.85 +.1%
  • Yield Curve(2s/10s) 66.25 +.25 basis point
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 4.15% -4.0 basis points
  • Japan 30-Year Yield 3.43% +7.0 basis points. 
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $6.509 Trillion +.3%
  • Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $8.850 Billion +12.7%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 30.0 -2.3%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 184.74 -1.9%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 69.0 unch.
  • UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 17.8 +.03%
  • China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 43.9 +2.9%
  • Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 139.96 +3.0%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 65.0 -1.5%
  • South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 22.0 -2.2%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.5 +.4%
  • China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 116.0 -.2%
  • Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +3.6% -20.0 basis points
  • Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +2.3% -20.0 basis points
  • US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +2.6% -50.0 basis points
  • CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +3.0% -30.0 basis points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.75% -10.0 basis points: CPI YoY +2.62% -34.0 basis points
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.26 -17.0 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.23 -5.0 basis points
  • Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread -2.25 basis points +2.0 basis points
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -17.75 -.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -.25 +2.0 basis points
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 50.8 +.1%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 192.0 +8.4% 
  • High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 434.79 +1.8% 
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 235.0 -24.0 
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 54.8 -1.3%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 125.7 -1.6%
  • MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 116.0 -6.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 595.0 -2.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS .55 unch
  • M2 Money Supply YoY % Change +4.6% +10.0 basis points
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding $1,324.5B +.8%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 217,500 +.2%
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% unch.
  • Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 56.3 +2.9%
  • Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 6.32% +1.0 basis point
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 315,600 -3.8%
  • Weekly Retail Sales +5.9% +.2 percentage point
  • OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY +6.0% -4.0 percentage points
  • Box Office Weekly Gross $197.9M -13.2%
  • Nationwide Gas $2.88/gallon -.05/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 2,071.0 -6.1%
  • Drewry World Container Freight Index $2,181.9/40 ft Box +11.5%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,124.7 +.6%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 62.5 -3.9%
  • Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 75.1 -6.5%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 294,284 +5.0%
  • TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,636,717 +22.4% 
  • Rasmussen Reports Daily Presidential Approval Tacking Poll 45.0% -1.0 percentage point
Best Performing Style
  • Large-Cap Growth +.4%
Worst Performing Style
  • Small-Cap Value -.8%
Leading Sectors
  • Gold & Silver +3.9%
  • Restaurants +2.7%
  • Coal +2.2%
  • Pharma +1.8%
  • Social Media +1.1%
Lagging Sectors
  • Digital Health -2.4%
  • Homebuilding -3.0%
  • Oil Service -3.6%
  • Road & Rail -3.9%
  • Energy -4.3%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (63)
  • FOLD, LUNR, CRWV, BMRN, FLY, CUK, RKLB, LEU, EWTX, HUT, NBIS, CMCL, MIRM, PONY, PL, RIVN, ORKA, SPRY, WGO, SGML, SEPN, NAVN, DJT, CCL, CDE, TYRA, ORCL, WGO, NAVN, HSAI, CRDO, HYMC, MU, PHAT, ZLAB, NCLH, ZLAB, HEI, LI, ALB, STAA, AVO, MESO, INFY, LRCX, APH, AXON, AXSM, ERO, WWD, HII, NVDA, EYPT, AAUC, JBIO, NTNX, BA, GMAB, CMP and RCL
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (13)
  • MNR, FDUS, IIPR, KBR, HHH, LPX, ADUR, PAHC, KBH, IRON, NKE, TLRY and LW
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change


Stocks Rising into Afternoon on Diminished AI Infrastructure Build-Out Worries, US Economic Data, Short-Covering, Tech/Biotech Sector Strength

Overseas Futures:

  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +990 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +76 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +220 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/utility/industrial/financial/consumer discretionary sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my emerging market shorts
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • None of note
After the Close: 
  • None of note
Economic Release 

8:30 am EST

  • The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for Sept. is estimated at -.2. 

Upcoming Splits

  • (TPL) 3-for-1
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The 2Y T-Note auction, Dallas Fed PCE for Oct., (RDWR) annual meeting and the (EA) shareholders meeting could also impact global trading on Monday.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Thursday, December 18, 2025

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

  • Asian equity indices are unch. to +.75% on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 65.5 -.25 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 44.0 -.25 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 104.7 USD/Metric Tonne -.22%. 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.85 +.04%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.06 -.07%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 93.5 +.3%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.13% +1.0 basis point.
  • Japan 30-Year Yield 3.40% +1.0 basis point. 
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.2 -.2%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.31%. 
  • S&P 500 futures -.01%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.01%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.