Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• None of note

After the Close: 

• None of note

Economic Release 

10:00 am EST

• Pending Home Sales MoM for Nov. is estimated to rise +1.0% versus a +1.9% gain in Oct. 

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -2,052,400 barrels versus a -1,274,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to rise by +798,200 barrels versus a +4,808,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to rise by +306,800 barrels versus a +1,712,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall by -.38% versus a +.3% gain prior.
• The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for Dec. is estimated to rise to -6.0 versus -10.4 in Nov. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The weekly EIA natural gas inventory report could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -50.5% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 14.2 -1.7
• 9 Sectors Declining, 2 Sectors Rising
• 36.3% of Issues Advancing, 63.0% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.01 -17.2%
• Non-Block Money Flow -$82.6M
  
• 86 New 52-Week Highs, 18 New Lows
• 61.6% (-.4%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 63.4 -.2

Polymarket:

• Supreme Court Rules in Favor of Trump's Tariffs? 30.0% +1.0 percentage point
• Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31st? 26.0% unch.
• Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 13.0% +1.0 percentage point
• US-Venezuela military engagement by Jan. 31st 27.0% -4.0 percentage points

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 97.7 -.5%
• US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 425.5 +.25 basis point
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 268.0 +.01%
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 162.2 +.3%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 56.0 (GREED) -1.0
• 1-Day Vix 6.6 -11.1%
  
• Vix 13.9 +3.0%
  
• Total Put/Call .77 -4.9%

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +.75% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 64.5 unch.
• China Sovereign CDS 43.75 +.5 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 103.5 USD/Metric Tonne -.34%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.88 -.2%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.2 +.04%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 98.4 +.2%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.14% +1.0 basis point.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.40% -2.0 basis points. 
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 16.8 -.6%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a. 
• S&P 500 futures unch.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.05%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Lower Long-Term Rates, US Economic Data, Technical Buying, Financial/Consumer Discretionary Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.18 +.08%
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.14% -3.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.63% +4.0 basis points

• China Iron Ore Spot 104.0 USD/Metric Tonne unch.
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 28.1 euros/megawatt-hour +1.2%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 4.7 +3.0 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 33.0 -.3 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 30.7 +.3 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(16 of 500 reporting) +32.8% unch.
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 309.65 +.06:  Growth Rate +15.0% unch., P/E 22.3 unch.
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.52% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) +n/a +n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 482.96 +n/a: Growth Rate +17.5% +n/a, P/E 33.3 +n/a
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .80 +1.0 basis point
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.62 +4.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.8 unch.
• US Yield Curve 62.25 basis points (2s/10s) -1.5 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 Forecast +3.0% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 26.7% -1.2 percentage points

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.76% unch.: CPI YoY +2.59% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.32 +1.0 basis point
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.24 +1.0 basis point
• Highest target rate probability for March 18th FOMC meeting: 52.6% (+1.3 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for April 29th meeting: 44.1%(-.3 percentage point) chance of 3.25%-3.5%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +56 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +14 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +156 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/utility/industrial/financial/consumer discretionary sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.4%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Retail +1.0% 2) Banks +.9% 3) Biotech +.8%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• OMER, DVAX, EWTX, AGIO, AFJK, TVTX, PSNY, FEIM, KOD, PATH, VOR, METC, ABVX, ZLAB, NKE, RXST, OMDA, CAVA, MU, SNDK, ZETA, ADEA and AMPL

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) OMER 2) PRMW 3) GGLL 4) AMBA 5) ZSL 

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) NKE 2) EWTX 3) PATH 4) DVAX 5) MU

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLY 2) XLF 3) SMH 4) XBI 5) XLK

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Friday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• None of note

After the Close: 

• None of note

Economic Release 

• None of note

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The weekly US Baker Hughes oil rig count could also impact global trading on Friday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST