Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +2.6% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 11.9 unch.
• 7 Sectors Declining, 4 Sectors Rising
• 36.6% of Issues Advancing, 61.0% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.31 +28.4%
• Non-Block Money Flow -$57.5M
  
• 123 New 52-Week Highs, 32 New Lows
• 62.5% (-3.3%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 61.9 -5.8

Polymarket:

• Supreme Court Rules in Favor of Trump's Tariffs? 22.0% -2.0 percentage points
• Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31st? 22.0% -1.0 percentage point
• Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 14.0% -2.0 percentage points
• US strikes Iran by June 30th 35.0% unch.

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 100.2 -1.0%
• US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 422.5 +1.5 basis points
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 273.6 +.6%
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 164.2 +1.6%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 51.0 (NEUTRAL) -1.0
• 1-Day Vix 7.0 -11.9%
  
• Vix 15.1 +2.2%
  
• Total Put/Call .75 -14.8%

Wednesday Watch

Around X:

• @Business  

• Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado said she believes the US has told acting president Delcy Rodríguez to take steps toward an eventual handover of power.
• US President Donald Trump’s administration has told Venezuela’s interim leader, Delcy Rodriguez, that her government must exclusively partner with the US on oil production and favor the US when selling heavy crude, ABC reported.
• China’s top financial regulator extended a policy allowing banks and asset management firms to dispose of bad personal loans amid rising credit card defaults, according to sources.
• After years off-limits, Venezuela is back on Wall Street’s radar following Maduro’s capture.
• A stock rally that has added $350 billion in market value for Samsung Electronics since the start of last year may have more room to run as bullish analysts and investors eye record profits.
• Discord filed confidentially for an IPO, according to sources, adding to a rapidly growing pipeline of venture capital-backed tech listings.   
• Index provider MSCI shelved a controversial plan that could have ejected crypto-heavy firms like Strategy from major indexes, but signaled a broader crackdown may be coming.
• Traders in Treasury options are boosting bets that US 10-year yields will bust out of their recent range and tumble below 4% in the coming weeks to levels last seen in November. 
• US transportation stocks closed at a record level Tuesday capping off a rebound fueled by prospects of strong economic growth this year. 
• Self-driving car systems company Mobileye Global Inc. is acquiring Israeli startup Mentee Robotics in a cash-and-stock deal valued at $900 million, as it looks to develop humanoid robots.
• Eli Lilly is in advanced talks to acquire Ventyx Biosciences for more than $1 billion, according to a report in the Wall Street Journal. 
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets
  .
• Here's what you need to know to start your day.

• @ZeroHedge

• Kim Jong Un Just Oversaw Hypersonic 'Nuclear-Ready' Missile Test, Blasts US As 'Rogue' State.
• BREAKING: Congressional Dems just held a candlelit vigil to honor the 5th January 6th anniversary. For those asking: No, this is not AI. (video)
• Trump Says "Investigation Of California Has Begun" As Surgical Truth-Bombs About Corruption Likely Inbound.
• *KKR AGREES TO BUY SPORTS INVESTOR ARCTOS AT $1 BLN VALUATION 2026 starting with avalanche of M&A. 
• Iran Decries 'Foreign Interference' As Protest Death Toll Rises Significantly.
• Chris Wright Takes Venezuela Pitch To Oil Executives In Miami.
• "Are You Not Entertained?" Democrats Announce New Impeachment Games To Draw Midterm Voters. 
• Metals Mania Continues As Mag7 Lags In 2026.

• @CNBC

• CNBC Daily Open: After Venezuela, rumblings of Greenland takeover from the White House.
• Trump says Venezuela to give up to 50 million barrels of oil to U.S. 
• Wednesday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.
• Asia-Pacific markets poised for mixed open as investors await Australia inflation data.
• Stock futures are little changed after S&P 500, Dow rally to fresh highs: Live updates.
• January effect: Citadel says big money to flow into stocks this month.
• Huang says Nvidia seeing ‘very high’ Chinese customer demand for H200 AI chips.
• Elon Musk's xAI raises $20 billion from investors including Nvidia, Cisco, Fidelity .

• @RenzTom

• The poison being scattered on us from the sky must be stopped. It's worse than people know. (video)

• @TheSCIF

• Testimony of Venezuelan whistleblower, on record, states that you can attack electronic voting machines, undetected, to manipulate election outcomes and testimony that backs Tina Peters' actions of preserving records from election fraud in the 2020 election.

• @KanekoaTheGreat

• MUST READ - Two Years Ago, President Trump Releases Summary of 2020 Presidential Election Fraud in the Swing States. Introduction: It has often been repeated there is “no evidence” of fraud in the 2020 Election. In actuality, there is no evidence Joe Biden won.

• @annvandersteel

• Dear President Trump: We the people would love to know wherefore cometh your love for Lindsey Graham. Lately we see you carrying him around like a purse puppy, but: Lindsey Graham was one of the chief GOP Trump-haters for years. He said January 6 was your fault and called your supporters "domestic terrorists." He voted to convict you in both impeachments (2021)...

• @dividendology

• The Complete List of JP Morgan's Top Stocks for 2026.

• @HustleBitch

• GROCERY STORES ARE NOW BIOMETRIC CHECKPOINTS. Signs inside Brooklyn and Manhattan Wegmans locations openly admit shoppers are being scanned - faces, eyes, even voiceprints - and that the data is being stored. Not deleted. Stored. That’s a quiet reversal from what customers were originally told when this program launched. Some shoppers say it feels invasive. Others say it feels inevitable. And for years now, the New York City Council has failed to move stalled legislation that would limit biometric storage. Is this really about “security” or are we being trained to accept biometric surveillance everywhere we go? (video)

• @LaurenLee

• The USDA just approved extremely dangerous SELF-AMPLIFYING mRNA shots for your dog (samRNA). “The vets won’t even tell you it’s self-amplifying!” In many states, you’re required to vaccinate for rabies. Avoid Nobivac NXT by Merck at ALL costs! (video)

• @heathahrens

• Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang just made the boldest prediction of his career: “AI will create more millionaires in 5 years than the internet did in 20.” But he didn’t stop there. He revealed exactly HOW it’ll happen Here’s his framework for capitalizing before it’s too late: We're not replacing human creativity - we're amplifying it 100x. The person with the best ideas wins, not the one with the most technical skills. This changes everything about who can build companies:

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.25% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 62.75 +.25 basis point.
• China Sovereign CDS 38.25 -.25 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 108.3 USD/Metric Tonne +1.7%. 
• Gold 4,484.4 USD/t oz. -.3%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.78 -.14%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.1 -.01%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 101.1 -.1%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.16% -1.0 basis point.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.52% +2.0 basis points. 
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.1 -.4%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.17%. 
• S&P 500 futures unch.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.05%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on US Economic/Earnings Strength, AI Infrastructure Build-Out Optimism, Stable Long-Term Rates

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 49.0 -.4%
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .26 unch.
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.30 -2.0 basis points
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 53.3 unch.
• Emerging Market CDS Index 124.2 -.6%
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.9 -.7

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 11.3 -1.0 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 21.7 -5.8 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 30.3 -.2 point 
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(16 of 500 reporting) +32.8% unch.
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 311.16 +.12:  Growth Rate +15.6% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.2 unch.
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.50% -1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) +n/a +n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 486.24 +.28: Growth Rate +18.3% unch., P/E 32.2 -.2
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .80 unch.
• US Yield Curve 70.5 basis points (2s/10s) -.25 basis point 
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 173.5 +2.6% 
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 28.7% -.3 percentage point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 Forecast +2.7% unch.
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.17% +1.0 basis point
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.46 +3.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for March 18th FOMC meeting: 52.8% (+3.9 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for April 29th meeting: 43.0%(-2.2 percentage points) chance of 3.25%-3.5%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -338 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -37 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +215 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my consumer discretionary/tech/industrial/financial/utility sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.6%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Energy -2.0% 2) Oil Service -.6% 3) Gambling -.6%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• E, HAL, CRNX, CVX, DXYZ, TTE, BP, JAZZ, MDGL, BZ, RBLX, JCI, AIG, CDNA, TIGR, MOD, SOFI, STAA, GHRS, MH, ZBIO and ANGO

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) ETSY 2) IEF 3) AIG 4) ASHR 5) ASST

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) JCI 2) TRU 3) ANGO 4) SFM 5) EFX

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLK 2) XLP 3) PPH 4) ITB 5) XOP

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth +1.5%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Computer Hardware +3.8% 2) Gold & Silver +3.7% 3) Medical Equipment +2.7%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• ALMS, AEVA, RGC, OS, VELO, SNDK, AXTI, CRML, WDC, SIMO, ARWR, STX, CWH, HSAI, USAR, MCHP, VSAT, ALGM, SKYT, LITE, ALB, HL, MRNA, WRBY, BC, CMP, HG, TRN, RKLB, SHAK, LPG, AIRO, HE, ZIFR, MU, CAMT, TXN, ALLT, SMMT, ZETA, COHU, SLAB, FTRE, SYNA, UCTT, TEM, AG, VEEV, LEU, AXON, OKLO, LRCX, LSCC, DNLI, ASTS, STM, WGO, SQM, ENTG, SBSW, SSYS, UBER, CRI, AMKR, UMAC, CRSP, PONY, HTLD, CAI, DIN, ACMR, KN, INCY, STNG, SCHL, NBIS, BTU, ATAT, PSLV, FIGR, FTAI, PRKS, NSA, HTHT, JXN, DG, SE, KNSA, EXK, SATS, TEVA, CDNS, BKD, NSP, CHA, AVAV, KLIC, GILT, VALE, CORT, SBLK, BWLP, LGN, WVE, DRI, CRTO, SAIA, CLS, AZN, GSK, VRTX, INSW, PDD, INOD, WLDN, GOLD and PDFS

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) DLO 2) OGN 3) GT 4) CLOV 5) AIG 

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) SNDK 2) ALMS 3) MCHP 4) WDC 5) EDBL

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLF 2) XLI 3) SMH 4) XLE 5) XBI

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (ACI)/.68
• (APOG)/1.02
• (CALM)/1.95
• (MSM)/.95
• (UNF)/2.06 

After the Close: 

• (APLD)/-.11
• (AZZ)/1.47
• (STZ)/2.64
• (JEF)/.88
• (PSMT)/1.35 

Economic Release 

8:15 am EST

• ADP Employment Change for Dec. is estimated to rise to 50K versus -32K in Nov. 

10:00 am EST

• The ISM Services Index for December is estimated to fall to 52.2 versus 52.6 in Nov.
• JOLTS Job Openings for Nov. is estimated to fall to 7600K versus 7670K in Oct.
• Factory Orders for Oct. is estimated to fall -1.2% versus a +.2% gain in Sept.
• Final Durable Goods Orders readings for Oct.

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -1,331,800 barrels versus a -1,934,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to rise by +3,063,200 barrel versus a +5,845,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to rise by +1,619,000 barrels versus a +4,977,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall by -.03% versus a +.1% gain prior.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Bowman speaking, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, (GBX) annual meeting, Goldman Sachs Energy/Clean Tech/Utilities Conference and the Evercore Leading the Charge Power/Utility Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST