Stocks Lower into Final Hour on US Global Tariff Uncertainty, AI Industry Disruption Worries, Crypto Plunge, Tech/Financial Sector Weakness

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 52.6 +2.3%
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .22 +3.0 basis points
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.04 +8.0 basis points
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 54.8 -1.3%
• Emerging Market CDS Index 128.7 +1.0%
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 2.1 +.6

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 27.4 +1.7 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 33.3 +.2 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 31.1 +2.6 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(427 of 500 reporting) +12.4% +.1 percentage point
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 320.27 +.78:  Growth Rate +19.0% +.3 percentage point, P/E 21.4 -.2
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.49% +1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +19.1% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 507.37 +1.70: Growth Rate +23.5% +.4 percentage point, P/E 27.9 -.5
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .65 +3.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 58.75 basis points (2s/10s) -1.75 basis points 
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 167.8 -.7% 
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 30.2% -.3 percentage point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +3.1% +10.0 basis points
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.03% -6.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.58 +1.0 basis point

• Highest target rate probability for April 29th FOMC meeting: 82.1% (-.4 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for June 17th meeting: 46.7%(+1.1 percentage points) chance of 3.25%-3.5%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -55 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +118 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +42 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/industrial/transport/consumer discretionary sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth -2.4%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Computer Services -10.1% 2) Software -5.2% 3) Regional Banks -4.7%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• APO, XYZ, BN, SOFI, VNET, MATV, FSLY, BKNG, WK, BX, HLNE, FROG, HRB, EPAM, ARES, QLYS, SAH, FIG, PAY, INMD, EXPE, DASH, HRMY, AXP, DOCN, LMND, MNDY, LNC, AGYS, KKR, DNOW, ROOT, TEAM, PGY, SNOW, BL, GTLB, NET, KVYO, STEP, IBM, ZS, AERO, CRWD, TNET, DDOG, TENB, TREE, RNG, GRAL and NVO

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) FND 2) OKTA 3) COMP 4) JEPQ 5) CWAN

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) APP 2) CRWD 3) AXP 4) AEO 5) VFC

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) KRE 2) SOXX 3) XBI 4) GDX 5) VHT

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -.9%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver +2.5% 2) Coal +1.1% 3) Pharma +1.0%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• ACLX, EHAB, TNDM, VRE, VKTX, LINC, FSM, AMN, SCZM, LEGN, STOK, CC, CLDX, AUGO, NESR, AU, SFM, OII, AMPX, KGC, PYPL, OIS, WGS, SVM, HBM, INVX, MD, ICLR, CTGO, SNDK, PSLV, DPZ, TDW, HMY, TPL, TGTX, GLW, USAU, PZZA, TARS, IRON, AAOI, HSTM, PVLA, GSHD, AEHR, VICR, RYI and TNGX

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) VNDA 2) GRAL 3) REAL 4) PRMW 5) PRGS 

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) ACLX 2) VNDA 3) OII 4) SPAI 5) PYPL

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) SMH 2) IYZ 3) PBPH 4) FDN 5) GRID

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (AS)/.28
• (AMT)/2.54
• (CIFR)/-.10
• (ELAN)/.11
• (EXPD)/1.47
• (HD)/2.53
• (KDP)/.59
• (LTH)/.28
• (NRG)/.98
• (PLNT)/.79
• (RGEN)/.44
• (XMTR)/.12 
• (CEG)/2.26
• (DDS)/10.71
• (EOG)/2.20
• (MELI)/11.50 

After the Close: 

• (AXON)/1.60
• (SAM)/-2.57
• (CAVA)/.03
• (FSLR)/5.14
• (GDDY)/1.58
• (HPQ)/.77
• (JAZZ)/6.52
• (MOS)/.51
• (RRC)/.71
• (SPXC)/1.87
• (TREX)/-.02
• (WDAY)/2.32 

Economic Release 

8:30 am EST

• Philly Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity Index for Feb. 

9:00 am EST

• The FHFA House Price Index MoM for Dec. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.6% gain in Nov. 
• House Price Purchase Index QoQ for 4Q. 
• The S&P Cotalithy CS 20-City MoM SA for Dec. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.47% gain in Nov. 

10:00 am EST

• The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for Feb. is estimated to fall to -8.0 versus -6.0 in Jan.
• The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for Feb. is estimated to rise to 87.0 versus 84.5 in Jan.
• Wholesale Trade Sales MoM for Dec. 

10:30 am EST

• The Dallas Fed Services Activity Index for Feb. 

Upcoming Splits

• (SF) 3-for-2

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Cook speaking, Fed's Waller speaking, Fed's Bostic speaking, Fed's Goolsbee speaking, State of the Unions Address, 2Y T-Note auction, ADP weekly Employment Change, weekly US retail sales reports, (AAPL) annual meeting, (TXN) business update call and the BMO Metals/Mining/Critical Minerals Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +13.3% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 11.0 +1.6
• 6 Sectors Declining, 5 Sectors Rising
• 21.6% of Issues Advancing, 76.1% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.0 -19.4%
• Non-Block Money Flow -$283.3M
  
• 156 New 52-Week Highs, 94 New Lows
• 65.8% (-4.2%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 55.3 -3.9

Polymarket:

• How long will the DHS shutdown last? 30+ days 55.0% -2.0 percentage points
• Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 10.0% -1.0 percentage point
• US strikes Iran by March 15th 50.0% +2.0 percentage points

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 97.2 -3.0%
• US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 531.75 +17.75 basis points
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 246.2 -2.4%
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 134.5 -.6%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 35.0 (FEAR) -7.0
• 1-Day Vix 14.5 -18.3%
  
• Vix 21.6 +12.9%
  
• Total Put/Call .87 -3.3%

Monday Watch

Around X:

• @Business   

• China said it’s closely monitoring the Trump administration’s plan to push forward his tariff regime with other trade tools, in its first official remarks since the Supreme Court invalidated the president’s broad emergency tariffs.
• Chinese stocks in Hong Kong rallied after the US Supreme Court struck down President Trump’s emergency tariffs, putting China among the countries set to face lower duties on shipments to the US.
• South Korea’s exports extended their growth momentum in early February, driven by resilient semiconductor demand even as trade uncertainty persists over US tariff policy. 
• President Donald Trump’s tariff-policy defeat in the US Supreme Court won’t unravel individual deals the administration has sealed with its trading partners, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said.  
• Apple’s next big thing is visual artificial intelligence, something CEO Tim Cook has already dropped hints about, Mark Gurman writes in this week’s Power On. 
• Gold rose as uncertainty over what would happen to trade deals negotiated with the US unsettled markets,after the Supreme Court restrained President Trump’s tariff powers.
• Here's what you need to know to start your day.   

• @Zerohedge

• Westin Puerto Vallarta won't honor late check out with streets closed. incredible things are happening on the Marriott subreddit.
• Update: Fighting between Mexican military forces and Narco Terrorist Cartels after major Drug Overlord killed in joint operation with the United States. All Americans across Mexico are ordered to shelter in place. Major battles are being fought everywhere as Soldiers and Police are targeted by Cartel militants!! (map) 
• Supreme Court Ruling On Tariffs Won't Change US–China Trade Relations, Analysts.
• There’s a type of kid they’re brainwashing.
• Trump Warns Netflix About Democrat Ties During Bid To Buy Warner Bros.
• Mexican Resort Towns Burn As Special Forces Kill Jalisco New Generation Cartel Boss "El Mencho".
• So Jeffrey Epstein in 2010 - 2 years after his arrest for procuring a child prostitute - did not "create legal or regulatory risk" for JPMorgan?
• Full Analysis Of The Supreme Court IEEPA Decision: How It Impacts The Economy, Policy And Markets.
• *US, IRAN MULL LIMITED NUCLEAR ENRICHMENT TO AVOID CONFLICT: NYT.
• Here's All The Key Figures Who Have Resigned Over The Epstein Files...So Far.
• AI Surveillance Should Scare Both Democrats And Republicans.
• Airlines Cancel Flights To Top Mexican Resort Town After Cartel Chaos Spreads After Drug Kingpin's Death.
• Goldman Says The Market Is Under-Valuing 'Growth' As 'Broadening' Continues.
• At the Ixtapa prison in Puerto Vallarta there was a prisoner escape, at least 2 guards are reported dead and there are several roadblocks. The Mexican army has already arrived at the scene. A complete chaos in Jalisco after arrests in Tapalpa. (video)    
• Passengers and staff seen fleeing from reported gunfire inside Guadalajara International Airport, as members of the CJNG Cartel attempt to storm the airport and several other nearby locations in the Mexican state of Jalisco. (video) 
• *IRAN OFFERED US FIRMS' PARTICIPATION IN ENERGY INDUSTRIES: RTRS *REUTERS REPORTER DETAILS IRAN CONCESSIONS IN TALKS W/ US ON X.
• Mexican Forces Kill CJNG Kingpin, Sparks Cartel Chaos Across Guadalajara.
• *US-IRAN TALKS TO BE HELD IN GENEVA THUR.: OMAN FOREIGN MINISTER.
• 21-Year-Old Male Identified As Shotgun-Wielding Mar-a-Lago Intruder.
• "Devastating" Discovery: New Docs Confirm JPMorgan De-Banked Trump Shortly After Jan 6th Capitol Chaos.
• "Potentially Worst Blizzard In Decade" Set To Hammer Mid-Atlantic And Northeast.
• Japan's $36 Billion Bet On US Energy Dominance.

• @CNBC

• Asia-Pacific markets set to open higher as investors brush off Trump's tariff hike to 15%.
• Bitcoin falls below $65,000, dropping over 5%.
• CNBC Daily Open: Trump's reaction to Supreme Court tariff ruling seems to cause more uncertainty.
• Stock futures are little changed as investors focus on Trump tariffs: Live updates. 

• @MarioNawful

• Epstein didn’t just rape children; he turned it into a horror show. A survivor claims Epstein attacked her in 1984 when she was just 14, after drugging her so badly she drifted in and out of consciousness… and when she came to, his face was painted like a clown. Because apparently being a predator wasn’t grotesque enough, he had to turn it into a nightmare circus act too. 
• In NYC, you need 2 forms of ID to get licensed to shovel snow commercially, while some Dems are opposing voter ID requirements in the SAVE Act. Apparently, snow piles have stricter paperwork than ballots. (video)
• Steve Witkoff claimed Iran could be one week away from having nuclear "bomb making material," and accidentally dropped the spiciest question of all: So… does that mean Operation Midnight Hammer didn’t actually hammer anything? Because if the B-2 raid last year was supposed to “set Iran back years,” and now we’re hearing they’re basically a week away from glowing in the dark…what happened? BTW, Blinken said the exact same thing in 2024, and remember those WMDs Saddam supposedly had? Yeah. Feels like déjà vu. (video) 

• @TheSCIF

• Dominion voting machines aren't just connected to the internet and have a built-in, remotely accessible backdoor, but are also able to flip votes, like we witnessed in the stolen 2020 election. Georgia: Bibb: 12k Trump to Biden. Dade: 12,173 Trump to Biden. Fulton: 10k+ excess Biden. Ware: 100+ Trump to Biden. Statewide: 30k removed Trump, 204k-315k fraudulent. Michigan: Antrim: 6k Trump to Biden. Statewide: 548k fraudulent. Pennsylvania: Allegheny: 10k excess Biden (absentee), 6.7k Biden (provisional). Statewide: 121k-221k flipped Trump to Biden, 432k removed Trump (15 counties), 400k errors. Arizona: Statewide: 25k-300k fraudulent. Wisconsin: Statewide: 64k-100k fraudulent/backdated. Nevada: Statewide: 72.4k fraudulent. (video)
• Democrats issued over 5.5M illegals Social Security numbers and registered them to vote in order to steal the 2020 election and change the voting map of the United States by adding seats through the U.S. census. They also enrolled illegals in Medicaid, and qualified illegals for max Social Security benefits. Elon confirmed and warned us. (video) 

• @WallStreetApes

• I can’t believe this is real. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy says the Biden Admin changed the rules to allow Commercial Drivers License schools to “self certify”. They took away all requirements allowing schools to give illegals CDLs. Democrats tried to bring down America. (video)

• @TheEpsteinFiles

• Epstein offering to buy babies!! What could they be doing with babies and why would they be offering to buy them? What was happening to the babies? (pic)

• @LaraLogan

• Welcome to the land of the free - roughly translated that means you are now in the “NO ACCOUNTABILITY NATION” and can do whatever you please - treason, sedition, child rape, massive fraud, election theft, targeting of parents as terrorists, biological warfare in the name of medicine - knock yourself out. No one will do a damn thing about it. You’re welcome. Enjoy. It took a lot of sacrifice to get here. Great people paid with their lives. And many more gave everything they had. We are pleased to let you know it all meant nothing. Because those with the power to stop it all instead chose to listen to cowards & traitors when it mattered most.

• @RenzTom

• Florida Surgeon General points out the absurdity of protecting glyphosate in under a minute. The Trump Administration is again trying to explain another slap in the face to MAHA by claiming they provided effective legal immunity to cancer-causing glyphosate manufacturers because we “couldn’t feed ourselves” without it. Ladapo points out the obvious—we grew food without poisoning ourselves for a very long time before glyphosate and the GMO plants it is used with existed. This was just another big ag/big pharma gift. (video)

• @annvandersteel

• Round Table Discussion. Aerosol Spraying of Our Skies. Live Streamed on X @annvandersteel. Thursday Fed. 26th 8pm EDT. Set your calendar. This one you don’t wanna miss. (pic)

• @BGatesIsaPsycho

• Yet people are still wondering why they never see the Sun or blue skies anymore, feel tired, drained & chronically fatigued all the time. Natural sunlight is absolutely essential for the human nervous system & it’s being stolen from you. (pic)

• @sayerjigmi

• The real finding isn't that Gates engineered pandemics for profit. It's simpler — and more troubling. Global health governance: who declares emergencies, who procures vaccines, who controls the surveillance networks — was shaped by unelected private actors, through vehicles designed to avoid transparency, with a convicted sex offender as central intermediary. Project Molecule: five layers of private governance. No parliamentary oversight. No FOIA. Designed to operate "permanently, privately, and across sovereign borders." [Part 2 in my 7-part series: https://sayerji.substack.com/p/inside-project-molecule-how-jpmorgan] You don't need to believe in "conspiracy" to find this alarming. Convergent incentives with no accountability is its own kind of problem. (pic)

• @toobaffled

• President Javier Milei is preparing a formal complaint against WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus before the International Criminal Court. He accuses the WHO leadership of crimes against humanity during the COVID-19 pandemic — lockdowns, mandates, and policies that caused massive harm to global freedom and health sovereignty. After already withdrawing Argentina from the WHO (following Trump's lead), Milei is now taking the fight to the international level. No more globalist overreach.

• @DataRepublican

• THREAD: Is Trump's hunch about foreign influence in SCOTUS correct? After the Supreme Court's 6-3 ruling on tariffs, Trump said "It's my opinion that the court has been swayed by foreign interests and a political movement that is far smaller than people would ever think." Trump is likely referring to the ideology of supranationalism -- a centuries-old ideology that considered tariffs to be among the highest economical blunders, not for economic reasons, but because tariffs dare to assert national rights in a telos of universal liberalism. But is he right about the foreign influence? (thread)

• @sentdefender

• Smoke rises from CJNG Cartel attacks and checkpoints across Puerto Vallarta in the Mexican state of Jalisco, following the elimination today of CJNG leader Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, known more commonly as El Mencho. (video)

• @Trump_Fact_News

• BREAKING NEWS: Major chaos in Puerto Vallarta, Mexico. (M) (video)

• @UpdateLineX

• #Puerto #Vallarta , is one of Mexico's top tourist destinations, welcoming a record-breaking 6.3 million visitors last year. Today, it's a war zone following the take out of the Mexican #CJNG cartel leader Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes by the military, reportedly assisted by US forces. (video)

• @redpillb0t

• The man who awarded Barack Obama the Nobel peace prize in 2009, and who was chair of the Nobel Committee was an Epstein Island regular visitor. (pic)

• @BradCGZ

• At 6:31am on Election night, a Michigan vote dump of 149,772 ballots was dropped. 134,886 of them were for Biden. Their typical (pre 2020) absentee Ballot split leaned around 48-52%. This batch was 04-96% It's insane to look at this and not immediately peg it as fraud. (graph)

• @GuntherEagleman

• Pass the SAVE America Act or nothing else matters.

• @Chicago1Ray

• They're not doing their job... Trumps first year in office has seen the lowest amount of bills passed in modern American history!!! Trump- (38). Biden- (122). Obama- (125). Bush - (109). I'm calling on @LeaderJohnThune to resign as Majority leader, he's not cut out for this role.

• @GordonGChang

• BREAKING: I'm filing my fourth anti-CCP lawsuit in three days by suing Temu for deceptive marketing and illegal data harvesting. Temu is Chinese Communist spyware disguised as a shopping app. Ban China’s Temu, which the regime has used to send seeds unsolicited to Americans. This looks like an attempt to plant invasive species in America, in other words, a biological weapons attack on all Americans. (pic)

• @allenanalysis

• BREAKING: Mike Huckabee just triggered a full-blown diplomatic backlash. After saying it would be “fine” for Israel to take over the Middle East, 14 countries + major regional blocs publicly condemned him. Jordan. UAE. Saudi Arabia. Egypt. Türkiye. Indonesia. Qatar. Lebanon. Kuwait. Pakistan. Bahrain. Oman. Palestine. Syria. Plus the OIC, Arab League, and Gulf states.

• @TonySeruga

• This week, I will be releasing an in-depth report on Glyphosate and Monsanto, telling the truth, sharing what they've hidden from the public and the government. How the Loop Functioned in Practice. 1. Monsanto creates "science" internally → sends to consultant firms. 2. Consultants repackage it as academic reviews or white papers. 3. Academia/regulators quote the sanitized data in official reports. 4. Media/NGOs amplify the regulatory conclusion as “independent.” 6. Monsanto references those same reports to prove safety — closing the circuit. Each layer acted as a buffer insulating the core from accountability while giving the impression of multidisciplinary consensus. (pic)

• @ArturoVill7

• A prisoner escape is already being reported at the Ixtapa prison in Puerto Vallarta. The security situation in Mexico is completely out of control. This already surpasses even the Culiacanazo. We're probably living through one of the worst days for security in the country's recent history. (video)

• @FxHedgers

• EXCLUSIVE: EPSTEIN HID SECRET FILES IN STORAGE UNITS ACROSS US. Jeffrey Epstein hid computers and photographs from United States authorities in secret storage lockers across the country, The Telegraph can reveal. Documents uncovered by this newspaper show the pedophile paid private detectives to remove equipment from his Florida home in an apparent attempt to prevent investigators from finding it.

• @amuse

• New leaked Epstein documents show the FBI removed the hard drive from the prison's camera system and wiped all footage from the night Jeffrey Epstein was murdered. EPSTEIN: It makes you wonder who is really running the FBI. Who ordered the hard drive to be wiped? They clearly knew what it would reveal.

• @CodeByPoonam

• This is scary... A selfie can now expose your exact home address. And most people have no idea this exists. GeoSpy AI can find your exact location from a single photo. No metadata. No EXIF data. Just pixels. This is terrifying. (video)

Night Trading

• Asian indices are unch. to +1.0% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 67.0 +.75 basis point.
• China Sovereign CDS 43.25 unch.
• China Iron Ore Spot 95.4 USD/Metric Tonne +.02%.
• Gold 5,184.5 USD/t oz. +2.0% 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.92 -.1%. 
  
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.20 +.06%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 99.9 -.3%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.08% n/a. 
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.34% n/a. 
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.8 +2.6%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.47%.
• S&P 500 futures -.74%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.93%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by consumer discretionary and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.