Stocks Falling into Afternoon on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, China Hard-Landing Worries, Technical Selling, Commodity/Gambling Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume:  Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 27.3 +4.0%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.74% +59.4%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 39.5 -5.4%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 143.14 +.27%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.7 -.6%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 46.8 +1.9% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 87.0 -8.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.17 -3.3%

• NYSE Arms 1.62 +68.4%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 91.4 +3.9%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 416.82 +2.7%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 356.0 +6.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 126.68 +5.6%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 232.0 basis points +2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 134.28 -2.4%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 328.82 +.6%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.53 -.54%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 36.0 basis points +1.5 basis points
  

• TED Spread 17.25 basis points -8.0 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -13.75 basis points +.5 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  140.0 +3.0 basis points
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 47.52 -.15%
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .80 -1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 48.80 -.04%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.89% +3.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve -35.5 basis points (2s/10s) -4.5 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 98.2 USD/Metric Tonne -3.1%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 253.0 euros/megawatt-hour -7.2%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -16.8 +5.5 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -34.5 -2.2 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 19.4 +.1 point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 237.02 +.09:  Growth Rate +15.9% +.1 percentage point, P/E 16.8 -.3 point
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.40 -5.0 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +1.57% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.62% unch.: CPI YoY +8.28% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.55 -2.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for November 2nd FOMC meeting: 66.9%(+4.9 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for December 14th meeting: 68.4%(+9.3 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 182 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 10.5%(unch.) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) -0/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -75.6%(+1.6 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -285 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -105 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -43 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to Market Neutral
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -1.5%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Oil Service -4.9% 2) Energy -3.5% 3) Steel -3.3%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• APA, AXSM, CLAR, OXY, MOS, SD, DNOW, EXTR, SJT, INSW, VNOM, VRDN, NFE, GNK, ESTE, PFHC, FCX, CF, LXU, NOG, STLD, STR, AR, HPK, EE, EGLE, RYI, CHK, AR, RRC, LCID, AEHR, BROS, EQT, CYRX, KYMR, ASIX, LPG, BTU, SMR, CRGY, CLDX, BPT, AA, JACK, CRK, CFVI, IPI, VERU and PLAB
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) AFL 2) BBY 3) WM 4) MMM 5) BIG
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) AZRE 2) KIRK 3) LCID 4) MNSO 5) GME
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -1.1%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Banks -.1% 2) Foods -.4% 3) REITs -.4%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• FAZE, AVID, BIG and BBY
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) AVCT 2) NTNX 3) BBY 4) VTI 5) NUGT

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) AVID 2) FAZE 3) PROC 4) NSSC 5) MMYT
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -16.9% Below 100-Day Average 
• 11 Sectors Declining, 0 Sectors Rising
• 18.8% of Issues Advancing, 77.2% Declining
• 8 New 52-Week Highs, 78 New Lows
• 31.7% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 43.0% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 41.0 -3.0%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 15,599.31 +.07%
  
• Vix 26.5 +1.1%
• Total Put/Call .96 -20.7%
• TRIN/Arms 1.15 +21.0%

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:              

• More UK Energy Aid to Come Under Incoming Leader, Zahawi Says.  
• China’s Growth Prospects Weaken as Economists Cut 2023 Forecasts.  
• PBOC Sets Stronger-Than-Expected Fix as Yuan Hits Two-Year Low .
  
• Powell’s Hawkish Stance Causes Headaches for Kuroda as Yen Falls.
• India’s Economy Faces Resilience Test Amid Rising Interest Rates.
• Asian Open Set to Be Subdued by Fed’s Stern Stance: Markets Wrap.  
• Copper Falls as Hawkish Fed Outweighs Supply Risk; Gold Steadies.
• White House Gives Fed Some Cover on Rates After Warren Critique.
• Fed’s QT to Hit ‘Full Stride’ With Central Bank Shrinking $9 Trillion Portfolio.
• Panic Button Is Nowhere in Sight as Memory of 7th S&P Rout Fades.  
• Biden to Slam GOP as Democracy Threat in Rare Prime-Time Speech.
• Neel Kashkari ‘Happy’ to See the Stock Market’s Reaction After Jackson Hole.

Wall Street Journal:  

• California Fast Food Wages Would Be Set by Government Under Bill.
• Violence Erupts in Baghdad After Cleric Quits Politics.
• Russia Confounds the West by Recapturing Its Oil Riches.
• Ukraine War Depleting U.S. Ammunition Stockpiles, Sparking Pentagon Concern.
• Income Equality, Not Inequality, Is the Problem. Those in the middle work much harder, but don’t earn much more, than those at the bottom.
• U.S. Business Confidence in China Falls to a Low.

Fox News:

• Fox News grills White House over allowing unvaccinated illegals to walk across border.

CNBC.com:

• Fed rate hikes won’t bring down inflation as long as government spending stays high, paper says.
• 64% of consumers are worried about ‘shrinkflation.’ What it is and how to watch for it.
• Expect Apple to show four new iPhones and an updated Apple Watch next week.
• Honda and LG Energy Solution to build $4.4 billion EV battery plant in U.S.

Zero Hedge:

• Full Implosion Overnight In 'Green Zone' As Baghdad Threatens To Become Next Kabul.
• The Strangest Thing About "Semi-Fascist" Trump.
• Zoltan: "This Is What The New World Order Will Look Like" After Europe's Minsky Moment "Where $2 Trillion Of German Value Depends On $20 Billion Of Russian Gas".
• Airline Ticket Sales Unexpectedly Tumble.
• Beyond equitiezzzz.
• Watch: Antifa Shows Up To 'Family Friendly' Drag Show With AR-15s.
• DeSantis Calls For "Reckoning" Of Fauci If Republicans Take Congress.
• US stocks were subdued in choppy trade amid higher yields following recent hawkish central bank rhetoric - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• FBI Agent Accused Of Sabotaging Hunter Biden Laptop Investigation Escorted Out Of Building.
• Judge Rules COVID Vaccine Mandate For DC Government Workers Is Unconstitutional.
• Mike Wilson: J-Hole Was A Shock To Stock Investors, But It's Just The Start Of The Next Leg Lower.
• Chinese Customs Halts Some Meat Imports From Tyson Foods.
• Luongo: The Era Of 'Woke' Is Over.
• The Narrative Of Housing Shortage Beginning To Crumble.
• DOJ Admits 'Limited Set' Of Seized Trump Docs May Be Privileged.
• Stocks and bonds sold as Jackson Hole rout emboldened by ECB's flirtation with 75bps - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• Stocks & Bonds Sink As Post-Powell "Pain" Continues.

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

• Breaking: FBI Agent Tim Thibault Who Opened Trump Investigation Is Escorted from Headquarters — Was Also FBI Agent in Charge of Investigating Voter Fraud, And Failed to Do So.
• “Give All This Information To The FBI. I Am Ready For Them To Find Me.” – MTG Swatter Taunts Police And FBI After Targeting Marjorie Taylor Greene With Fake 911 Call (VIDEO).
• Pennsylvania Democrat John Fetterman Ignores Questions When Asked if He’s Afraid to Debate Dr. Oz (VIDEO).
• WATCH: White House Grilled on Why Unvaccinated Migrants Can Hop the Border, But Unjabbed Tennis Star Can’t Participate in US Open.
• Despite Recession and Record Inflation Biden Energy Secretary Announces: We Are “Pressing on the Accelerator” to Move to Clean Energy (VIDEO).
• Florida Democrat Charlie Crist Says Biden Was Being “Honest” When He Labeled Trump Supporters “Semi-Fascists” (VIDEO).
• Elon Musk Shares that the World Still Needs Oil and Gas to Keep Civilization from Crumbling.
• STUNNING: 4.9 Million Illegal Aliens Crossed Open Border Into US in First 18 Months of Biden Regime – Roughly the POPULATION OF IRELAND (VIDEO).
• Census Bureau: 3.8 Million Americans Will Likely Be Evicted in Next Two Months #BidenEffect. 
• Dr. Robert Malone Opens Up on the COVID Catastrophe, Dr. Tony Fauci, World Economic Forum, The Trusted News Initiative with The Gateway Pundit – MUST-SEE VIDEO.
  

The Epoch Times: 

• India Slams China for ‘Debt-Driven Agendas’ in Spat Over Vessel Visit to Sri Lanka.

Twitter:

• @PeterDClack - The US has 276 million motor vehicles, the UK 31 million. Electrifying all US vehicles alone would need 18 times current global production of cobalt, nine times the neodymium, three quarters of lithium & half the world's copper & rare earths. China dominates all these markets.
• @endless_frank - I don’t think most Americans realize how dire the situation is in Europe. If your utility bill went from $250/month to $2500, discretionary spending would get obliterated. The EU makes up 25% of $SPX earnings. Corporate earnings will fall off a cliff as the weather cools.
  

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 857,343 Reports(+5,974 from prior week) Through August 12th, 2022.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 136.0 +5.0 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 72.0 +1.75 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 48.82 unch.  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 41.75 +.05%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.35 -1.0 basis point
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 26.2 +.6%
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a.

• S&P 500 futures +.05%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.02%  

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (AMWD)/1.29
• (BIDU)/10.83
• (BBY)/1.29
• (BIG)/-2.47
• (CONN)/.09
• (PLAB)/.50
  

After the Close:

• (AMBA)/.19
• (CHPT)/-.20
• (CHWY)/-.12
• (CRWD)/.27
• (HPE)/.48
• (HPQ)/1.03
• (PVH)/2.02
  

Economic Releases

9:00 am EST

• The FHFA House Price Index MoM for June is estimated to rise +.8% versus a +1.4% gain in May. 
• The S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM for June is estimated to rise +.9% versus a +1.32% gain in May.
• The S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY for June is estimated to rise +19.2% versus a +20.5% gain in May.
  

10:00 am EST

• The Conference Board Consumer Confidence for Aug. is estimated to rise to 97.6 versus 95.7 in May.
• JOLT Job Openings for July is estimated to fall to 10375K versus 10698K in June.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone inflation report, Fed's Williams speaking, weekly US retail sales reports and the Jefferies Semi/IT Hardware/Communications Infra Summit could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Rising European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Technical Selling, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume:  Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 25.7 +.5%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .7% -71.4%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 42.5 +3.1%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 142.97 +1.37%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.8 +1.9%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 44.9 -.8% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 96.0 +6.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.24 +15.9%

• NYSE Arms .67 -63.1%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 87.94 +3.1%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 404.77 +1.4%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 350.0 -1.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 119.95 -.08%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 230.0 basis points -1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 137.46 +5.0%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 326.02 +2.4%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.72 -.15%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 34.5 basis points +.75 basis point
  

• TED Spread 25.25 basis points +1.0 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -14.25 basis points +.5 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  137.0 +2.0 basis points
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 47.62 -.67%
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .81-2.0 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 48.84 -.01%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.86% +7.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve -31.0 basis points (2s/10s) +6.75 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 101.7 USD/Metric Tonne -2.7%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 282.0 euros/megawatt-hour -16.9%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -23.3 +1.0 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -32.3 +.4 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 19.3 -3.1 points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 236.93 +.26:  Growth Rate +15.8% +.1 percentage point, P/E 17.1 -.3 point
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.39 -13.0 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +1.57% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.62% unch.: CPI YoY +8.28% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.57 -2.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for November 2nd FOMC meeting: 61.5%(+13.9 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for December 14th meeting: 58.7%(+17.8 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 182 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 10.5%(-.4 percentage point) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) -7/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -77.2%(-1.9 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +217 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +1 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +29 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my commodity/industrial sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my emerging market shorts
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 50% Net Long