Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -.7%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Energy +2.2% 2) Oil Service +1.0% 3) Defense +1.0%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• VERV, PCT, PACS, WLY, JBL, CRWV, STNG, PBF, CRK, TEN, ACDC, OSCR, RELY, ASC, BBWI, BWLP, TRMD, DOCS, FRO, CRESY, MUSA, SRPT, LMT, CRSP and MLYS

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) APPS 2) WMB 3) SEDG 4) BUR 5) CRCL

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) VERV 2) PCT 3) APPS 4) AZ 5) MOBX

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XBI 2) SOXX 3) VDE 4) XLE 5) XLB

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (GMS)/1.11
• (KFY)/1.26 

After the Close: 

• (SWBI)/.23

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Housing Starts for May is estimated to fall to 1350K versus 1361K in April. 
• Building Permits for May is estimated to rise to 1425K versus 1422K in April.
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated at 245K versus 248K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims is estimated to fall to 1940K versus 1956K prior. 

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -1,840,600 barrels versus a -3,644,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies is estimated to rise by +883,200 barrels versus a +1,504,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories is estimated to rise by +724,400 barrels versus a  

2:00 pm EST

• The FOMC is expected to leave the benchmark Fed Funds rate at 4.25-4.5%. 

4:00 pm EST  

• Net Long-Term TIC Flows for April.

Upcoming Splits

• (IBKR) 4-for-1

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 update, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, (DAL) annual meeting, (ADSK) annual meeting, (COIN) annual meeting, (CRWD) annual meeting, (VSCO) annual meeting and the Jefferies Consumer Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -3.8% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 17.7 +1.1
• 10 Sectors Declining, 1 Sector Rising
• 37.8% of Issues Advancing, 59.2% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.29 +74.3%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$254.2M
  
• 28 New 52-Week Highs, 38 New Lows
• 42.9% (-.7%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 57.9 -4.3

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 70.5 +.8%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 243.6 +.01%
  
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 165.7 +.3%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 59.0 (GREED) -2.0
• 1-Day Vix 12.7 -.6%
  
• Vix 20.0 +4.6%
  
• Total Put/Call .91 +2.25%

Tuesday Watch

Around X:

• @Business

• Breaking: President Donald Trump is cutting short his visit to the Group of Seven leaders’ summit, according to the White House, and returning to Washington.
• Prime Minister Keir Starmer is set to agree with President Donald Trump to implement a trade deal announced last month.
• Gold pushed higher in early Asia trading after US President Donald Trump called for the immediate evacuation of Tehran, boosting demand for havens. 
• Senate Republicans released a bill that would end tax credits for wind and solar earlier than for other sources, dashing hopes of those seeking relief from major cuts passed by the House.
• Here's the latest news on the oil market.
• The Senate’s draft tax bill calls for temporarily increasing an investment credit for semiconductor manufacturers, enhancing a subsidy for chipmakers to build factories in the US.
• Wealthy US colleges scored a win with the release of Senate Republicans’ tax bill, which would institute a lower tax hike on endowments than what GOP House members have backed.
• Hedge fund billionaire Ken Griffin shares his views on President Donald Trump; his alma mater, Harvard University; and his Florida homecoming. 
• Senate Republicans released revised tax and health-care provisions of Donald Trump’s multitrillion dollar signature economic package, a key step toward meeting their goal of passing the bill before July 4.
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.
• Here's what you need to know to start your day. 

• @ZeroHedge 

• American Forces are maintaining their defensive posture & that has not changed. We will protect American troops & our interests.
• Gold: The Global Financial System's Lie-Detector?
• With BOJ On Deck, The Yen's Moment To Shine... Or Fade, Is Here.
• The Ghost In The Machine.
• *ELI LILLY IN ADVANCED TALKS TO BUY VERVE FOR UP TO $1.3B: FT.
• *TRUMP TO RETURN TO WASHINGTON TONIGHT: LEAVITT.
• Support For Renewables Slides As Fossil Fuel Interest Grows. (graph)
• "Everyone Should Immediately Evacuate Tehran" - Trump Says Iran Should Have Signed Deal.
• *EU, US LEADERS INSTRUCT TEAMS TO ACCELERATE WORK ON TRADE: VDL.   
• WW3-On, WW3-Off: Stocks, Oil, Gold, & Crypto Swing Wildly On Mideast Headline Roulette.

• @Polymarket 

• BREAKING: The odds of the US taking imminent military action against Iran are surging. (graph)

• @GatewayPundit

• Victor Reacts: Liberals Claim Scripture Justifies Illegal Immigration – Debunked. (VIDEO)
• The 3500 year History of China, the CCP and how GETTR are Making a Stand for Freedom. 
• Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy Says Sanctuary Cities Won’t Receive Federal Tax Dollars to Repair Riot Damage.
• EXCLUSIVE: NIH Renews Grants for Harvard Monkey Lab, Fauci’s Beagle and Primate Tests.

• @KobeissiLetter

• Keep watching oil markets: President Trump just told “everyone [to] evacuate Tehran immediately.” Yet, oil prices are up a mere +1.5% on the news. Oil markets continue to price-in a short-lived conflict. Ignore the noise and follow the money.
• Foreign inflows to US assets are re-accelerating: Foreign purchases of US assets are on track to reach $138 billion in 2025, the second-largest year on record, according to Bank of America. Since 2020, overseas investors have poured $547 billion into US assets. This surge has been primarily driven by US equity funds, which are on pace for $136 billion in net inflows this year, the second-highest after 2024. Since the beginning of 2020, foreigners’ net inflows into US equities alone have totaled ~$350 billion. After a brief pause, international buying of US assets is back. 
• This is incredible: Foreigners hold $26 trillion more in US assets than Americans hold overseas. The net international investment position measures the difference between what a country owns overseas and what foreigners own in that country. For the US, the imbalance has DOUBLED over the last 5 years. As a % of GDP, this metric has reached ~87%, making it one of the largest deficits among developed nations. This comes as foreign investors continue pouring money into American stocks, bonds, and other assets. Additionally, the value of these assets has grown rapidly, particularly in stocks. The US market is beyond dominant. (graph)

• @GenFlynn

• The American people do NOT want another endless war. Not in the Middle East. Not in Eastern Europe. We've spent $500 BILLION funding failure while Congress gets rich and the country rots from the inside out. We are experiencing a moral collapse, not just approaching one. This nation was founded under God—it's time to act like it. (video)
• CHINA CHINA CHINA. NOT RUSSIA RUSSIA RUSSIA.

• @FreeManReporter

• Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla, former U.S. Treasury Secretary Larry Summers and former European Commission President José Manuel Barroso exiting #Bilderberg 2025. (video)

• @WallStreetApes

• I’m sharing this as a screen recording so you can see how viral this video has now gone. Over 112,000 people have liked this video exposing the Democrat Party bought 200 pallets of bricks without any construction plans right before all the protests broke out. How can so many people know what’s doing on but no one ever be held accountable?? It makes you furious. (video)

@LawrenceSellin

• The Chinese Fifth Column is a clear and present danger to U.S. national security. There are millions of Chinese-in-America who are permanent residents (green card) or U.S. citizens, but remain loyal to Communist China and work on its behalf. Their children are also indoctrinated.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to -.75% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 74.75 -1.25 basis points. 
• China Sovereign CDS 46.75 unch.
• China Iron Ore Spot 93.5 USD/Metric Tonne -.7%.
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.82 -.02%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.1 -.1%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 69.9 -.1%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.42% -2.0 basis points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.9 +3.9%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.73%. 
• S&P 500 futures -.44%. 
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.49%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Israel/Iran Ceasefire Hopes, Lower Oil Prices, Short-Covering, Tech/Transport Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.16 +.38% 
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.46% +6.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.35% -1.0 bais point

• China Iron Ore Spot 93.4 USD/Metric Tonne -.7%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 37.91 euros/megawatt-hour +.03%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -12.2 -3.8 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 25.8 -.6 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 33.7 +.3 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(499 of 500 reporting) +12.7% unch.
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 278.11 +.32:  Growth Rate +9.5% +.2 percentage point, P/E 21.7 unch.
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.22% +1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +33.0% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 432.40 +.88: Growth Rate +15.8% +.2 percentage point, P/E 33.0 +.1
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .28 -12.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.01 -18.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 4.4 -.7
• US Yield Curve 48.25 basis points (2s/10s) +1.75 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.8% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 40.0% -.7 percentage point

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.58% unch.: CPI YoY +2.61% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.59 -2.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.31 +1.0 basis point
• Highest target rate probability for July 30th FOMC meeting:  87.5% (+10.6 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 17th meeting: 56.5%(-.3 percentage point) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +339 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -69 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -88 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my index hedges and emerging market shorts
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges 
• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.7%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Pharma -1.3% 2) Oil Service -1.2% 3) Healthcare Providers -1.0%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• XYF, FRO, LZMH and SRPT

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) GPN 2) VRNA 3) WEN 4) CRCL 5) SRPT

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) SRPT 2) IOVA 3) NPWR 4) ZBIO 5) ELV

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLF 2) ARKK 3) XRT 4) SMH 5) KRE

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume