Stocks Modestly Lower into Afternoon on Geopolitical Tensions, Metals Plunge, Profit-Taking, Alt Energy/Metals & Mining Sector Weakness

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.5 +.6%
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .24 +1.0 basis point
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.30 unch.
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 54.6 +.1%
• Emerging Market CDS Index 124.7 +.6%
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.9 unch. 

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 7.3 +2.0 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 32.5 -.2 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 32.4 +3.5 points 
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(16 of 500 reporting) +32.8% unch.
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 310.16 +.30:  Growth Rate +15.2% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.2 -.2
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.52% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) +n/a +n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 484.26 +.78: Growth Rate +17.9% +.2 percentage point, P/E 32.9 -.4
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .81 -1.0 basis point
• US Yield Curve 65.0 basis points (2s/10s) +.25 basis point 
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 160.0 -2.0% 
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 28.7% +.3 percentage point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 Forecast +3.0% unch. 
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.11% -2.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.33 +4.0 basis points 

• Highest target rate probability for March 18th FOMC meeting: 47.7% (+1.0 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for April 29th meeting: 45.9%(unch.) chance of 3.25%-3.5%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -115 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -46 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +180 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/consumer discretionary/financial sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -.6%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver -5.2% 2) Alt Energy -1.7% 3) Airlines -1.5%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• IDR, AXTI, ALMU, PHYS, SKE, PAAS, CEF, AUGO, ADUR, PSLV, SBSW and HYMC

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) VALE 2) WMB 3) AMPX 4) ZETA 5) UBS

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) NEM 2) RARE 3) CDE 4) FCX 5) KMX

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLP 2) FDN 3) ARKK 4) XRT 5) KBWB

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -.2%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Energy +1.0% 2) Utilities +.7% 3) Telecom +.6%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• THH, RGC, PRAX, VELO, DBRG, NGL, PSNY, EVMN, DXYZ, OTF, SCHL and CRESY, 

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) URA 2) COMP 3) ZSL 4) SIL 5) COPX 

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) ORBS 2) DBRG 3) PRAX 4) SOPA 5) BNAI

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) PPA 2) XLU 3) SMH 4) IAI 5) XLV

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• None of note

After the Close: 

• None of note

Economic Release 

8:15 am EST

• ADP Weekly Employment Change. 

9:00 am EST

• FHFA House Price Index MoM for Oct. is estimated to rise +.1% versus unch. in Sept.
• The S&P Cotality CS 20-City MoM SA for Oct. is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.13% gain in Sept. 

9:45 am EST

• The MNI Chicago PMI for Dec. is estimated to rise to 39.8 versus 36.3 in Nov. 

10:30 am EST

• Dallas Fed Services Activity for Dec.

2:00 pm EST

• Dec. 10th FOMC Meeting Minutes released. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The weekly US retail sales reports, Texas Services Sector Outlook for Dec., weekly API crude oil stock report and the (ZYME) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -33.9% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 13.9 -.3
• 6 Sectors Declining, 5 Sectors Rising
• 33.5% of Issues Advancing, 64.2% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .88 -14.6%
• Non-Block Money Flow -$97.3M
  
• 32 New 52-Week Highs, 22 New Lows
• 61.6% (-.9%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 61.1 -1.1

Polymarket:

• Supreme Court Rules in Favor of Trump's Tariffs? 31.0% +1.0 percentage point
• Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31st? 25.0% -3.0 percentage points
• Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 13.0% unch.
• US-Venezuela military engagement by Jan. 31st 40.0% -4.0 percentage points

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 97.3 unch.
• US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 429.25 +3.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 265.4 -.8%
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 160.3 -.7%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 47.0 (Moved to NEUTRAL from GREED) -8.0
• 1-Day Vix 7.8 +1.3%
  
• Vix 14.6 +7.6%
  
• Total Put/Call .85 +2.4%

Monday Watch

Around X:

• @Business   

• China said it would hold military maneuvers around Taiwan that would include live-fire drills, a move that comes after the US announced a major weapons package for the self-run democracy. 
• President Donald Trump said he made “a lot of progress” in talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy as the US president pushes for a peace deal to end Russia’s invasion. 
• Some members of the Bank of Japan’s board signaled that the country’s real interest rate remains very low during a meeting earlier this month where authorities raised the benchmark rate, suggesting that further increases are likely in store.
• Oracle’s stock surged after a landmark $300 billion deal with OpenAI, briefly making co-founder Larry Ellison the world’s richest person. Bloomberg Originals explains the legacy tech giant’s rise to AI infrastructure leader. 
• Big banks are getting their sweet revenge on private equity. 
• Silver climbed to a record, pushing beyond $80 an ounce for the first time to extend a historic end-of-year rally.
• Bank of America Corp. Chief Executive Officer Brian Moynihan said he expects the Trump administration to de-escalate trade tensions next year after tariffs sent shockwaves through the US economy in 2025. 
• From crypto's Trump-fueled wild ride to gold's surge and the attack of credit cockroaches, here are 11 trades that help tell the story of markets in 2025.
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.
• Here's what you need to know to start your day
  .  

• @Zerohedge

• The Good News Is People Are Realizing We're On Our Own.
• New Orleans Has The Highest Homicide Rate Among Major US Cities.
• Absolutely: so you gonna subpoena Maurene Comey?
• Another example of rampant fraud in California: Fully one-third of community college applications are fake. They're just used for financial aid fraud. 
• BREAKING: Multiple corrupt Minnesota judges are under fire for dismissing a FLURRY of recent Somali fraud cases. - Judge Sarah West: Abdifatah Yusuf. - Judge Amber Brennan: Yusuf's wife Lul Ahmed. - Judge Hilary Caligiuri: co-defendant Abdiweli Mohamud. MILLIONS of dollars stolen, but the conviction wasn't allowed. Because the judges say so. These judges won their recent races entirely with no opposition.
• WHOA! Silicon Valley “tax the rich” congressman @RoKhanna becomes the first Democrat to ADMIT California has $72 BILLION in criminal fraud, calls for “full accountability” & “new leadership”. Trouble for @GavinNewsom presidential ambitions. Now that you agree: 
• Your California state tax dollars at work. Rather than helping drug-addicted homeless people, they enable and encourage drug use. 
• *SILVER FALLS AS MUCH AS 2.3% AFTER EARLIER RISING 6%.
• Donbas Dispute "Unresolved", But Trump Says Russia-Ukraine Peace Deal "Very Close".
• CASE UPDATE: MINNESOTA FRAUD SCHEME. The FBI is aware of recent social media reports in Minnesota. However, even before the public conversation escalated online, the FBI had surged personnel and investigative resources to Minnesota to dismantle large-scale fraud schemes exploiting federal programs. Fraud that steals from taxpayers and robs vulnerable children will remain a top FBI priority in Minnesota and nationwide....   
• Nick Shirley says there better be accountability following his Somali video — warning that people will be furious if there isn’t.
• Prediction Consensus: What The Experts See Coming In 2026.
• New York To Demand Warning Labels On Social Media Platforms.
• Dave Collum's 2025 Year In Review: From Precious Metals To Propaganda's Golden Age.
• As Trump Awaits Netanyahu's War Pitch, Iranian President Says Israel, US Already Waging 'Full-Scale War'.
• The Hidden Heavy Metals Damaging Your Brain... And Where They Come From.
• Courts Cap Off Year Of Major Decisions, Confrontations Over Trump Agenda.
• British Teacher Branded A Terrorist Threat For Showing Trump Videos In US Politics Class. 
• Europe's Farmer Protests Are A Warning America Can't Ignore. 
• The UK Health Care Disaster Is A Cautionary Tale For America's Rising Class Of Armchair Socialists. 
• TIL that Ilhan Omar’s husband runs the largest VC firm in the world. 
• The Santa Claus Rally Begins.        

• @CNBC

• An intriguing AI play is emerging as the new year approaches, according to Wells Fargo.
• Stock futures are little changed after S&P 500 hits fresh record: Live updates.
• Asia-Pacific markets set to trade mixed as investors kick off final trading week of 2025.

• @WSJ.com

• Entertainment companies and developers are rushing to create a high-end middle market for out-of-home entertainment.
• Heard on the Street: It’s far from certain who will end up owning Warner Bros. It’s more certain that, whoever does, the outlook for theatrical movies is dimming. 
• Washington now regards the European Union as an over-regulated bureaucracy incapable of responding swiftly to events and fulfilling its role as a U.S. ally.
• A history of modern Israeli politics tells the story of leaders who won’t exit the stage and parties that split and split again.  
• Aging power infrastructure is threatening the ability of countries to capitalize on the AI boom. The U.K. offers a cautionary tale.
• Streetwise: Markets were assailed by a trio of disruptive forces this year. Yet investors were rewarded for doing nothing.  
• The reboot of reactor No. 6 at Kashiwazaki-Kariwa on the Sea of Japan coast will mark a milestone for a nation that in 2011 suffered one of the world’s worst nuclear disasters.
• Law enforcement is expanding the use of remotely controlled drones despite concerns of civil liberties groups. 
• There’s new evidence for what teachers suspected all along: Smartphones in class means bad behavior and low test scores. @juliejargon looks at the effectiveness of school phone bans. 

• @MarioNawful

• IRANIAN HACKERS INFILTRATE NETANYAHU'SCHIEF OF STAFF'S PHONE AND DROP VIDEOS FROM IT. Iran's Hanẓala group just went from claiming they hacked Netanyahu's chief of staff's phone to proving it. They released a video. Russian ambassador to Israel. Private meeting. Quote: "Russia and Israel are friends." That's not the smoking gun. That's the opening shot. Here’s why this matters. Iran didn’t lead with the most damaging material. They led with something embarrassing but not catastrophic. The message is: "We have the phone. We have the files. This is what we're willing to show you first." Classic kompromat strategy. Release something that proves access, then hold the devastating stuff as leverage. What the Russian ambassador video reveals:
• NICK SHIRLEY'S FRAUD VIDEO HITS 75 MILLION VIEWS - FOX NEWS AIRS HIS FOOTAGE- THE INSTITUTIONAL MEDIA GATEKEEPERS JUST LOST. 75 million views. Still climbing by the hour. 400,000 likes. 150,000 reposts. Fox News running his footage on national television. Nick Shirley just proved the entire thesis: One guy with a camera documenting fraud beats every newsroom in America combined. Here's what just changed permanently: 
• BREAKING - MINNESOTA SOMALI FRAUD PLOT DEEPENS: FAKE CHILDCARE CENTERS CAUGHT DONATING TO DEMOCRATS. Screenshots are blowing up showing Somali-run childcare centers in Minneapolis funneling donations to local Somali politicians right around the time massive fraud scandals hit the fan. We're talking places like Sunshine Childcare Center Inc, MN Best Childcare Center Inc, Adult Care LLC, and Lucky Child Care Center LLC dropping $1,000 checks in 2021, mixed in with individual donors. This is tied into the epic Feeding Our Future mess, where prosecutors say over $250M in federal COVID aid for kids' meals got siphoned off by Somali-linked nonprofits. Recent probes flag up to half of $18B in state programs potentially looted, including daycare scams where centers pocket millions with no kids in sight, exposing empty "daycares" in Minneapolis that scored up to $4M. Politicians like Ilhan Omar got hit with donations from fraud suspects back in '22, though she bounced the cash to food banks. (pic) 

• @ShadowofEzra

• Erika Kirk says that just weeks before Charlie Kirk’s assassination, donors (Israeli) raised concerns about what would happen to the future of Turning Point USA if something happened to him. She says Charlie Kirk told them the organization would remain “vision led” and that Erika would do a great job running it. (video)

• @GenFlynn

• Breaking: The CCP is destroying America from within—when will it end!? They don’t need to invade America. They’re already inside. For decades, the Chinese Communist Party has been executing a quiet, deliberate campaign of unrestricted warfare against the United States, not with bombs or bullets, but with land, money, and influence. Control the land and you pressure food supply and territorial security. Control the companies and you gain leverage over the economy. Control education and you shape the next generation of American leaders. Now it reaches directly into the minds of our children. This is a long-term strategy to weaken our nation from within while we argue and look away. The response must be clear, uncompromising, and it must happen NOW.

• @TheSCIF

• The "ADJUDICATION" process is just ONE way that the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election was STOLEN. DOMINION and SMARTMATIC voting machines, along with numerous other manufactures can be controlled remotely and the physical machines can be tampered with, along with the USB drives inside, in seconds. This isn't a "design flaw" in the machines and software, they were specifically engineered to steal elections. When you have an adjudication rate that is 750x more than the legally allowed limit, (usually 1 out of 125,000 ballots), those ballots all go into adjudication and no matter what the ballot says, even if it's BLANK, you can designate all of them to go to any candidate you want at the click of a button. Every swing state was greatly above the legal limit for adjudication. Remember, we're talking about millions of ballots out of the whole country in all 50 states, and Biden only "won" in most states by 7k-12k votes. Imagine the real numbers?

• @TaraBull

• Again… With all the fraud being exposed in Walz’s Minnesota… The only Dem to vote to stop healthcare for illegals in Minnesota. 1 of 67. Melissa Hortman. The deciding vote. Then killed. Almost like she knew what was coming. Hell of a coincidence… She was kiIIed shortly after casting this vote, and watching her reaction here is chilling. (video)

• @XFreeze

• You literally can’t find a single mainstream article about the Minnesota fraud... Not even one... How is it that a simple guy with a camera can uncover over $110,000,000 in fraud in a single day, but giant billion‑dollar media organizations behind the glass doors somehow “miss” it for years? It’s not that they couldn’t find it. It’s that they wouldn’t They are desperate to bury this, protect their ideological allies, and smear anyone who exposes how rotten the system is with “it’s not as bad as it looks” think‑pieces or by turning it into a race‑based narrative to shut people up. This is as clear as it gets in broad daylight The story isn’t just the fraud... The story is the massive cover‑up.... (pic)

• @lsferguson

• I knew the Senate would be a serious problem when they elected RINO John Thune as Majority Leader, RINO Mitch McConnell as chair of the Rules Committee and Susan Collins as chair of the Appropriations Committee. This was a massive "Fuck You" to the voters that gave them the majority. This is the fault of not only these three, but all the Republican Senators who elected them to "Leadership".

• @Real_RobN

• Here it is: The CIA: Does anyone—@AGPamBondi, @FBIDirectorKash, or @CIADirector—want to explain to the American people why CIA Director John Brennan was fighting a court subpoena in 2020 for Maricopa County to turn over routers and router images to auditors, defying a judge’s order? (video)

• @RenzTom

• Let’s be clear: the real reason we'll never see election reform is that some RINOs benefit from this corruption. It’s not just Dems that steal elections—RINOs do too, especially in primaries. That’s the dirty secret no one will tell you.

• @Peoples_Pundit

• Trump was never more popular with under 40 voters than before stupid people misdirected him from DOGE to Iran. That's why they are forever losers and saboteurs. If they would have stayed the course with @elonmusk they would be 4 points ahead now.

• @amuse

• LAWFARE: Soros-backed NGO is teaching DC residents how to sneak onto juries and rig trials against President Trump and his administration. A newly formed Washington DC group called Free DC, tied to Community Change & Community Change Action, is training residents to act as “skeptical jurors” in federal cases involving President Trump. Co-founder Alex Dodds said jurors have “enormous power” to judge the administration itself. Critics report the sessions encourage rigging trials against the administration, conduct plainly barred under 8 USC §1503.

• @DataRepublican

• Told you so. NGOs are making primaries a top target now. The reasoning goes: gerrymandering means 90%+ of seats are "safe." Thus, don't fight over the 10% -- which tends to be high cost battles. It's much more efficient to simply take over the other 90%. It's logical. It's diabolical. And it's going to work until we understand that primaries will be more important than generals from here out on.

• @ScottPresler

• Senator Al Franken (D-MN) was “elected” by 312 votes in 2008. Franken was the 60th vote in the Senate that cemented ObamaCare into law. Minnesota allows for vouching, whereby 1 voter can sign an oath that up to 8 voters live within that precinct. 542,257 MN voters registered to vote on Election Day in 2008. This post won’t get a Community Note because everything that I’ve written is true.

• @ValerieAnne1970

• "The Incidence of SIDS ‘DISAPPEARED’ In Japan After Raising The Age of Vaccination To 2yrs Old." - Dr Pierre Kory, MD. In 1981, Japan Delayed The DTaP Vaccine Until Children Were 2yrs old. Japan's Infant Mortality Is The Lowest In The World, While The US Ranks #1 In Deaths.

• @redpilldispensr

• Bill Gates' Apeel coating has been approved for application on organic produce. It's not labeled, cannot be washed off, and is being used on fruits and vegetables certified as organic. Consequently, you may unknowingly be buying "organic" produce that has been sprayed with this coating. (video)

• @ToscaAusten

• Justice Denied. A ticking clock hides in plain sight—one that could forever bury the darkest secrets of Jan 6th. Midnight approaches on the five-year statute of limitations and . @AGPamBondi’s “kick the can” system is working perfectly— for the deep state. The statutes of limitations on the J6 hoaxers—who orchestrated the fed-surrection trap—expire in just 11 days. Is this delay a ploy to let the real plotters vanish into the night? We may never know, the truth is slipping away... unless we demand indictments NOW.(video)

• @Highway_30

• I am not suicidal. I'm not on the Epstein list. I don't take money from AIPAC. I don't take money from CAIR. The Democrat establishment runs from me. The Republican establishment works against me. The media knows I know and I know how to tell the people. I don't pander, I don't pretend, I don't play games. I fear God, I love Christ and I speak the truth. Now watch as they try to assassinate my character for the next 12 months, if they don't try to assassinate me literally. Their time is up and our time is now. The America 1st movement isn't an opportune slogan, it's a renaissance of straight up dawgs. Patriots, intellectual yet common sense, mixed with integrity and grit. Resolve... we don't quit we don't take a knee. Come get some you globalist, communists, scumbags! Royce White for U.S. Senate MN 2026 America 1st, Just Right. (video)

• @realdefender45

• All we wanted for Christmas was some accountability but all we got was failure. (pic)

• @Sassafrass_84

• So here me out. Remember when one day after Brian Kemp called for a signature audit in Georgia, his daughter’s boyfriend and a staffer to Senate runoff candidate Kelly Loeffler was killed in a fiery car crash. (Looked like a bomb went off. Watch the video) Harrison Deal was his name. He was creating a name in the political world for himself. I'm not excusing Brian Kemp, but I think that's a huge coincidence that his daughter's boyfriend is killed, and then the audit didn't happen. Don't ya think? I'm just asking questions, guys....

• @KariKake

• Watch and share. This used to get you banned & your account cancelled. Not anymore, thanks to @elonmusk. (video)

• @C_3C_3

• Our Government is a multi-trillion dollar a year theft and money laundering operation. The American taxpayers are the victims. Sick.
• Again… With all the fraud being exposed in Walz’s Minnesota… The only Dem to vote to stop healthcare for illegals in Minnesota. 1 of 67. Melissa Hortman. The deciding vote. Then killed. Almost like she knew what was coming. Hell of a coincidence… (video)

• @JovanHPulitzer

• During the 2020 Election in Michigan, a Secretary of State official told volunteers to count "multiple ballots with the very same signature" during audit of votes in Antrim county. She told the very worried poll workers that the audit was not the time for them to investigate! Keep this. This is the ORIGINAL CLUE. They were told "just count the oval" and nothing else, - they had to ignore no folds, same sigs and more, just "count the oval". This is why they said ALL VOTES MUST COUNT and that is totally differen than COUNT ALL LEGAL VOTES. SAVE THIS VIDEO. (video)

Night Trading

• Asian indices are unch. to +1.0% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 64.5 unch.
• China Sovereign CDS 43.75 unch.
• China Iron Ore Spot 106.10 USD/Metric Tonne +1.4%.
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.88 +.01% 
  
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.18 -.08%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 98.2 +.9%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.14% +1.0 basis point. 
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.40% unch. 
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 16.8 -.1%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.24%.
• S&P 500 futures -.06%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.08%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and consumer discretionary shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.