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Sunday, September 13, 2009
Weekly Outlook
Friday, September 11, 2009
Weekly Scoreboard*
Indices
S&P 500 1,042.73 +3.94%
DJIA 9,605.41 +2.79%
NASDAQ 2,080.90 +4.93%
Russell 2000 593.59 +5.53%
Wilshire 5000 10,657.78 +4.22%
Russell 1000 Growth 458.99 +3.77%
Russell 1000 Value 538.70 +4.49%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 631.94 +3.72%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 741.34 +6.31%
Morgan Stanley Technology 530.49 +6.0%
Transports 3,974.54 +7.74%
Utilities 369.74 +.29%
MSCI Emerging Markets 37.86 +6.15%
Lyxor L/S Equity Long Bias Index 923.95 +.50%
Lyxor L/S Equity Variable Bias Index 853.12 +.02%
Lyxor L/S Equity Short Bias Index 1,094.56 -1.11 %
Sentiment/Internals
NYSE Cumulative A/D Line +56,251 +16.19%
Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index +374 +27.9%
Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 32.0 +33.3%
CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position +33,112 +15.80%
CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,178,263 +1.18%
Total Put/Call .87 -6.45%
OEX Put/Call 1.56 +28.93%
ISE Sentiment 112.0 +30.23%
NYSE Arms 1.23 +108.47%
Volatility(VIX) 24.15 -10.89%
G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 13.01 +1.25%
Smart Money Flow Index 9,320.40 +4.93%
Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $3.543 Trillion -.40%
AAII % Bulls 37.0 -2.63%
AAII % Bears 44.0 +15.79%
Futures Spot Prices
CRB Index 251.12 +.96%
Crude Oil 69.29 +1.73%
Reformulated Gasoline 175.98 -2.06%
Natural Gas 2.96 +18.76%
Heating Oil 173.08 -.29%
Gold 1,006.40 +1.47%
Bloomberg Base Metals 179.50 -.69%
Copper 284.65 -1.24%
US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 246.67 USD/Ton +3.07%
China Hot Rolled Domestic Steel Sheet 3,612 Yuan/Ton -3.73%
S&P GSCI Agriculture 296.25 -1.07%
Economy
ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index 125.40 +.64%
Citi US Economic Surprise Index +44.70 -37.39%
Fed Fund Futures imply 68.0% chance of no change, 32.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 9/23
US Dollar Index 76.61 -2.25%
Yield Curve 244.0 -6.0 basis points
10-year US Treasury Yield 3.35% -9 basis points
Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet $2.072 Trillion +.17%
U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 22.0 -8.33%
10-year TIPS Spread 1.77% unch.
TED Spread 16.0 -3 basis points
N. Amer. Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 108.02 -11.47%
Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 74.79 -15.53%
Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 302.78 -3.67%
CMBS Super Senior AAA 10-year Treasury Spread 546.0 unch.
M1 Money Supply $1.636 Trillion -.20%
Business Loans 707.40 -.42%
4-Wk MA of Jobless Claims 570,000 -.50%
Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 4.60% -10 basis points
Average 30-year Mortgage Rate 5.07% -1 basis point
Weekly Mortgage Applications 648,300 +17.0%
ABC Consumer Confidence -48 -3 points
Weekly Retail Sales -2.40% +190 basis points
Nationwide Gas $2.58/gallon -.01/gallon
US Cooling Demand Next 7 Days right at normal
Baltic Dry Index 2,492 +3.23%
Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to US Gulf Coast) 22.50 -10.0%
Rail Freight Carloads 201,239 -.65%
Iraqi 2028 Govt Bonds 69.55 +1.06%
Best Performing Style
Small-Cap Value +5.65%
Worst Performing Style
Large-Cap Growth +3.77%
Leading Sectors
Airlines +13.11%
Disk Drives +11.74%
Networking +10.74%
Hospitals +9.86%
Alt Energy +8.66%
Lagging Sectors
Retail +1.36%
Computer Services +1.34%
Utilities +.29%
Restaurants +.18%
Education -1.92%
Stocks Finish Slightly Lower, Weighed Down by Education, Homebuilding, Financial and Semi Shares
Evening Review
BNO Breaking Global News of Note
Yahoo Most Popular Biz Stories
Today’s Movers
StockCharts Market Performance Summary
WSJ Data Center
Sector Performance
ETF Performance
Morningstar Style Performance
Commodity Futures
S&P 500 Gallery View
Timely Economic Charts
Most Recent Guru Stock Picks
CNN PM Market Call
After-hours Stock Commentary
After-hours Movers
After-hours Stock Quote
After-hours Stock Chart
Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Profit-Taking, More Shorting
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly lower into the final hour on losses in my Technology longs and Medical longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is negative as the advance/decline line is lower, most sectors are declining and volume is above average. Investor anxiety is very high. Today’s overall market action is mildly bearish. The VIX is rising 2.55% and is high at 24.15. The ISE Sentiment Index is low at 107.0 and the total put/call is slightly above average at .86. Finally, the NYSE Arms has been running above average most of the day, hitting 1.29 at its intraday peak, and is currently 1.27. The Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index is falling 4.48% today to 74.33 basis points. This index is down from its record March 10th high of 208.75. The North American Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index is falling 3.73% to 108.02 basis points. This index is also well below its Dec. 5th record high of 285.99. The TED spread is rising 1.45% to 16 basis points. The TED spread is now down 447 basis points since its all-time high of 463 basis points on October 10th. The 2-year swap spread is falling 4.98% to 31.0 basis points. The Libor-OIS spread is falling 6.70% to 12 basis points. The 10-year TIPS spread, a good gauge of inflation expectations, is falling 1 basis point to 1.76%, which is down 91 basis points since July 7th. The 3-month T-Bill is yielding .13%, which is down 1 basis point today. The Transports are jumping another 2.0% on an earnings boost from (FDX), which is a large broad market positive. Defense, Hospital and Oil Service shares are also outperforming substantially, rising 1%+. While the major averages have seen some selling today into good news, the S&P 500 is holding above the 1,035 level that was breached yesterday and the bears have been unable to gain any meaningful traction. I continue to hear analysts and pundits say that investors are overly complacent and way too bullish, notwithstanding data that suggests otherwise. The latest Greenwich Alternative Investments Market Sentiment Indicator for September shows that ONLY 13% OF MACRO HEDGE FUND MANAGERS ARE BULLISH ON THE S&P 500, WHILE 66% ARE BEARISH. This is a large positive. Today’s market action is indicative of just another temporary pause before another push higher in stocks next week. One of my longs, (GOOG), continues to trade well. I suspect the shares will begin another meaningful surge higher during 4Q. Nikkei futures indicate an +6 open in Japan and DAX futures indicate a -6 open in Germany on Monday. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close from current levels on diminishing economic fear, short-covering, technical buying, falling long-term rates and investment manager performance anxiety.
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