S&P 500 1,114.58 -.02%
NASDAQ 1,896.84 +.15%
Leading Sectors
Iron/Steel +2.52%
Commodity +1.45%
Papers +1.40%
Lagging Sectors
Retail -.31%
Airlines -1.54%
Drugs -2.56%
Other
Crude Oil 49.46 -.36%
Natural Gas 6.64 -2.34%
Gold 420.00 -.10%
Base Metals 121.28 +3.41%
U.S. Dollar 87.38 -.82%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.12 +.80%
VIX 13.34 +.98%
Put/Call .82 -2.38%
NYSE Arms .94 +18.99%
After-hours Movers
NFLX +4.41% after saying it will work with Tivo(TIVO) to develop a service to offer videos to download from the Internet.
OXM +4.4% after beating 1Q estimates and reiterating outlook.
TIVO +5.14% on NFLX news.
RIMM -4.2% on profit-taking after beating 2Q estimates, reiterating 3Q guidance and raising 4Q outlook.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on MET and LMT.
After-hours News
U.S. stocks finished mixed today on better economic data and a plunge in the shares of Merck. After the close, News Corp.'s own polling suggests it will win support for a move to the U.S., the Australian Financial Review reported. Japanese auto companies such as Toyota Motor and shipbuilders will agree to let steelmakers boost prices, Nikkei English News said. Merck's recall of its Vioxx painkiller surprised pharmacies in the U.S. and Canada, leaving them unprepared to handle questions from concerned patients and doctors looking for alternatives and trying to get information about possible reimbursement, Bloomberg reported. Scientific studies of Merck's Vioxx arthritis medicine, withdrawn from the market today, showed as early as four years ago that the painkiller was linked to elevated risk of heart disease, Bloomberg said. U.K. Prime Minister Blair is to go to the hospital for routine heart surgery Friday, Bloomberg reported. U.S. military forces have begun a "major offensive" to seize Samarra, Iraq, in an attempt to rid the area of insurgents, CNN reported.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished higher today on strength in my security, Chinese ADR and steel longs. I did not trade in the afternoon and the Portfolio remains 125% net long. Considering the drops in shares of MRK and FNM, today's action was pretty good. The Bloomberg US Iron/Steel Index hit a 5-year high today and is poised to move higher as global economic growth accelerates. As well, long-term interest rates are heading higher on signs of stronger economic growth. I continue to expect U.S. economic growth to reach 4.5-5% during the fourth quarter and that the stock market will begin to anticipate this in the later part of October, embarking on a very strong year-end rally.
Thursday, September 30, 2004
Mid-day Update
S&P 500 1,113.82 -.09%
NASDAQ 1,897.78 +.20%
Leading Sectors
Iron/Steel +1.84%
Commodity +1.44%
HMOs +1.21%
Lagging Sectors
Biotech -.37%
Airlines -2.05%
Drugs -2.62%
Other
Crude Oil 50.04 +1.04%
Natural Gas 6.79 -1.75%
Gold 420.40 -.02%
Base Metals 121.28 +3.41%
U.S. Dollar 87.39 -.79%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.14% +1.27%
VIX 13.44 +1.74%
Put/Call .80 -4.76%
NYSE Arms .99 +25.32%
Market Movers
MRK -25.5% after withdrawing its Vioxx painkiller, which generated $2.5 billion is sales last year, because of a link to heart attacks and strokes.
ERES -17.4% after Advest downgrade to Buy, target $21.40.
FNM -4.7% after saying the Justice Dept. is considering whether to conduct a criminal investigation into accounting fraud.
NSTK +12.34% on continued optimism over its nasal spray for obesity.
ACH +6.7% after saying it raised its alumina price by 5% a ton following gains in the import cost of the aluminum metal raw material.
CRAI +8.4% after beating 3Q estimates and boosting 04 guidance.
IMDC +5.1% after announcing that Patricia Walker has accepted the new position of Chief Scientific Officer and Executive VP for Clinical and Regulatory Affairs.
ARRO +5.69% after meeting 4Q estimates and reiterating 05 outlook.
CLSR -33.5% after cutting 3Q/04 outlook.
TLB -9.3% after cutting 3Q forecast and multiple downgrades.
ANN -6.3% on TLB news.
Economic Data
Personal Income for August rose .4% versus estimates of a .4% rise and a .2% increase in July.
Personal Spending for August rose 0.0% versus estimates of a .1% rise and a 1.1% increase in July.
PCE Deflator (YoY) for August rose 2.1% versus estimates of a 2.2% increase and a 2.4% rise in July.
PCE Core (YoY) for August increased 1.4% versus estimates of a 1.5% rise and a 1.4% increase in July.
Initial Jobless Claims for last week were 369K versus estimates of 343K and 351K the prior week.
Continuing Claims were 2873K versus estimates of 2875K and 2876K prior.
Chicago Purchasing Manager for September rose to 61.3 versus estimates of 58.0 and a reading of 57.3 in August.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on SPLS, PFE, BSX, ATYT and ASN. Citi SmithBarney reiterated Buy on MAR, target $58. Citi rated GNW Buy, target $28. Citi reiterated Buy on GE, target $38. Citi reiterated Buy on AIG, target $80. Citi reiterated Sell on RNR, target $46. Citi reiterated Buy on FHN, target $50. Citi reiterated Buy on WFR, target $14. Citi reiterated Buy on WMT, target $65. Citi reiterated Buy on SPLS, target $35. Citi reiterated Buy on FLEX, target $22. COP raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank, target $91. CG rated Outperform at CSFB, target $28. SIRI raised to Overweight at JP Morgan. LRCX rated Underweight at Morgan Stanley, target $19.40. PFE raised to Outperform at Schwab SoundView, target $41. KLAC rated Overweight at Morgan Stanley, target $45. CYMI rated Overweight at Morgan Stanley, target $35.
Mid-day News
U.S. stocks are mixed mid-day as better economic data is being offset by concerns in the pharmaceutical sector. Merck said it's withdrawing its Vioxx painkiller from the market because of data showing and increased risk of heart attack and stroke after 18 months of treatment, Bloomberg reported. Wal-Mart may be planning to sell high-definition televisions in its stores under its own label, the NY Post reported. Kmart Holding is considering moving its corporate headquarters to Atlanta from suburban Detroit, the Detroit, the Detroit News reported. About 15,000 employees of Atlantic City, New Jersey, casinos owned by companies including Harrah's Entertainment, Caesars Entertainment and Aztar may strike tomorrow if union leaders and management don't agree on a new contract, the Star-Ledger reported. DuPont is introducing impact-resistant roofs, safe rooms and products designed to minimize damage to buildings during hurricanes and other natural disasters, the Wall Street Journal reported. Merck CEO Gilmartin told CNBC that the drugmaker's dividend won't be cut after the company's decision to withdraw its Vioxx painkiller because it may be unsafe. One of the organizers of the March 11 Madrid terrorist bombings received a monthly stipend of $2,495 from a Saudi cleric, El Mundo reported. Warburg Pincus may raise more than $8 billion for the world's biggest buyout and venture capital fund next year, Bloomberg reported. Copper prices in NY are rising today to the highest levels in nine years on strong demand from China and the U.S., Bloomberg reported. The frequency and strength of small earthquakes occurring near Washington state's Mount St. Helens accelerated for a second day, raising expectations that the volcano may erupt for the first time in almost 20 years, Bloomberg reported. Iraqi Prime Minister Allawi said attacks by insurgents won't stop elections taking place as planned in January and appealed to the international community to stand by Iraq in its attempts to defeat extremists, Bloomberg said. Business in the Chicago area, a center of manufacturing, grew at a faster pace than expected in September as orders and hiring gained, Bloomberg reported. Daily oil output in the Gulf is still close to 500,000 barrels below pre-storm levels, prompting further gains in the commodity, Bloomberg said.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher mid-day on gains in my Chinese ADR, security and steel longs. I have not traded and the Portfolio is still 125% net long. The tone of the market is ok today, considering the damage to Merck, one of the world's largest pharmaceutical companies and a large component in the DJIA. The underlying strength in the Chicago Purchasing Manager report is welcome and bodes well for economic growth in the fourth quarter. It is also a positive that oil inventories rose this last week even with production in the Gulf at lower levels. I expect U.S. stocks to rise into the close on short-covering, end-of-quarter window dressing and better economic data.
NASDAQ 1,897.78 +.20%
Leading Sectors
Iron/Steel +1.84%
Commodity +1.44%
HMOs +1.21%
Lagging Sectors
Biotech -.37%
Airlines -2.05%
Drugs -2.62%
Other
Crude Oil 50.04 +1.04%
Natural Gas 6.79 -1.75%
Gold 420.40 -.02%
Base Metals 121.28 +3.41%
U.S. Dollar 87.39 -.79%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.14% +1.27%
VIX 13.44 +1.74%
Put/Call .80 -4.76%
NYSE Arms .99 +25.32%
Market Movers
MRK -25.5% after withdrawing its Vioxx painkiller, which generated $2.5 billion is sales last year, because of a link to heart attacks and strokes.
ERES -17.4% after Advest downgrade to Buy, target $21.40.
FNM -4.7% after saying the Justice Dept. is considering whether to conduct a criminal investigation into accounting fraud.
NSTK +12.34% on continued optimism over its nasal spray for obesity.
ACH +6.7% after saying it raised its alumina price by 5% a ton following gains in the import cost of the aluminum metal raw material.
CRAI +8.4% after beating 3Q estimates and boosting 04 guidance.
IMDC +5.1% after announcing that Patricia Walker has accepted the new position of Chief Scientific Officer and Executive VP for Clinical and Regulatory Affairs.
ARRO +5.69% after meeting 4Q estimates and reiterating 05 outlook.
CLSR -33.5% after cutting 3Q/04 outlook.
TLB -9.3% after cutting 3Q forecast and multiple downgrades.
ANN -6.3% on TLB news.
Economic Data
Personal Income for August rose .4% versus estimates of a .4% rise and a .2% increase in July.
Personal Spending for August rose 0.0% versus estimates of a .1% rise and a 1.1% increase in July.
PCE Deflator (YoY) for August rose 2.1% versus estimates of a 2.2% increase and a 2.4% rise in July.
PCE Core (YoY) for August increased 1.4% versus estimates of a 1.5% rise and a 1.4% increase in July.
Initial Jobless Claims for last week were 369K versus estimates of 343K and 351K the prior week.
Continuing Claims were 2873K versus estimates of 2875K and 2876K prior.
Chicago Purchasing Manager for September rose to 61.3 versus estimates of 58.0 and a reading of 57.3 in August.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on SPLS, PFE, BSX, ATYT and ASN. Citi SmithBarney reiterated Buy on MAR, target $58. Citi rated GNW Buy, target $28. Citi reiterated Buy on GE, target $38. Citi reiterated Buy on AIG, target $80. Citi reiterated Sell on RNR, target $46. Citi reiterated Buy on FHN, target $50. Citi reiterated Buy on WFR, target $14. Citi reiterated Buy on WMT, target $65. Citi reiterated Buy on SPLS, target $35. Citi reiterated Buy on FLEX, target $22. COP raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank, target $91. CG rated Outperform at CSFB, target $28. SIRI raised to Overweight at JP Morgan. LRCX rated Underweight at Morgan Stanley, target $19.40. PFE raised to Outperform at Schwab SoundView, target $41. KLAC rated Overweight at Morgan Stanley, target $45. CYMI rated Overweight at Morgan Stanley, target $35.
Mid-day News
U.S. stocks are mixed mid-day as better economic data is being offset by concerns in the pharmaceutical sector. Merck said it's withdrawing its Vioxx painkiller from the market because of data showing and increased risk of heart attack and stroke after 18 months of treatment, Bloomberg reported. Wal-Mart may be planning to sell high-definition televisions in its stores under its own label, the NY Post reported. Kmart Holding is considering moving its corporate headquarters to Atlanta from suburban Detroit, the Detroit, the Detroit News reported. About 15,000 employees of Atlantic City, New Jersey, casinos owned by companies including Harrah's Entertainment, Caesars Entertainment and Aztar may strike tomorrow if union leaders and management don't agree on a new contract, the Star-Ledger reported. DuPont is introducing impact-resistant roofs, safe rooms and products designed to minimize damage to buildings during hurricanes and other natural disasters, the Wall Street Journal reported. Merck CEO Gilmartin told CNBC that the drugmaker's dividend won't be cut after the company's decision to withdraw its Vioxx painkiller because it may be unsafe. One of the organizers of the March 11 Madrid terrorist bombings received a monthly stipend of $2,495 from a Saudi cleric, El Mundo reported. Warburg Pincus may raise more than $8 billion for the world's biggest buyout and venture capital fund next year, Bloomberg reported. Copper prices in NY are rising today to the highest levels in nine years on strong demand from China and the U.S., Bloomberg reported. The frequency and strength of small earthquakes occurring near Washington state's Mount St. Helens accelerated for a second day, raising expectations that the volcano may erupt for the first time in almost 20 years, Bloomberg reported. Iraqi Prime Minister Allawi said attacks by insurgents won't stop elections taking place as planned in January and appealed to the international community to stand by Iraq in its attempts to defeat extremists, Bloomberg said. Business in the Chicago area, a center of manufacturing, grew at a faster pace than expected in September as orders and hiring gained, Bloomberg reported. Daily oil output in the Gulf is still close to 500,000 barrels below pre-storm levels, prompting further gains in the commodity, Bloomberg said.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher mid-day on gains in my Chinese ADR, security and steel longs. I have not traded and the Portfolio is still 125% net long. The tone of the market is ok today, considering the damage to Merck, one of the world's largest pharmaceutical companies and a large component in the DJIA. The underlying strength in the Chicago Purchasing Manager report is welcome and bodes well for economic growth in the fourth quarter. It is also a positive that oil inventories rose this last week even with production in the Gulf at lower levels. I expect U.S. stocks to rise into the close on short-covering, end-of-quarter window dressing and better economic data.
Thursday Watch
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
CMN/.27
STZ/.70
FDO/.26
Splits
None of note.
Economic Data
Personal Income for August estimated up .4% versus a .1% rise in July.
Personal Spending for August estimated up .1% versus a .8% increase in July.
PCE Deflator (YoY) for August estimated up 2.2% versus a 2.4% rise in July.
PCE Core (Yoy) for August estimated up 1.5% versus a 1.5% increase in July.
Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated at 343K versus 350K the prior week.
Continuing Claims are estimated at 2875K versus 2883K prior.
Chicago Purchasing Manager for September estimated at 58.0 versus 57.3 in August.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Attractive view of Non-life Insurance industry. Goldman reiterated Outperform on IBM, TYC, GE and Underperform on FHN, PGL, FHCC.
Late-Night News
Asian indices are higher on optimism over better U.S. economic growth and falling oil prices. About $14 billion should be spent upgrading power plants and transmission lines in the U.S. Rocky Mountain states, the AP reported. Genentech's breast-cancer treatment Herceptin may work in some types of lung cancer, Reuters reported. CEOs of three of the world's biggest automakers asked Treasury Secretary John Snow to urge Japan not to resume yen sales that they say unfairly make Japanese cars less expensive in the U.S., Bloomberg reported. Caterpillar, its rival Komatsu and SGS SA, which test mineral samples, said sales are rising in Mongolia from a surge in mining exploration in the country, Bloomberg reported. U.S. Medicare advisers in November will assess the safety and cost of surgery as a way for patients to lose weight, the NY Times reported.
Late-Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.25% to +1.0% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.10%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated unch.
BOTTOM LINE: I expect U.S. equities to open modestly higher in the morning on better economic data, gains in Asia, declining oil prices, short-covering and end-of-the-quarter window dressing. The Portfolio is 125% net long heading into tomorrow.
Company/Estimate
CMN/.27
STZ/.70
FDO/.26
Splits
None of note.
Economic Data
Personal Income for August estimated up .4% versus a .1% rise in July.
Personal Spending for August estimated up .1% versus a .8% increase in July.
PCE Deflator (YoY) for August estimated up 2.2% versus a 2.4% rise in July.
PCE Core (Yoy) for August estimated up 1.5% versus a 1.5% increase in July.
Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated at 343K versus 350K the prior week.
Continuing Claims are estimated at 2875K versus 2883K prior.
Chicago Purchasing Manager for September estimated at 58.0 versus 57.3 in August.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Attractive view of Non-life Insurance industry. Goldman reiterated Outperform on IBM, TYC, GE and Underperform on FHN, PGL, FHCC.
Late-Night News
Asian indices are higher on optimism over better U.S. economic growth and falling oil prices. About $14 billion should be spent upgrading power plants and transmission lines in the U.S. Rocky Mountain states, the AP reported. Genentech's breast-cancer treatment Herceptin may work in some types of lung cancer, Reuters reported. CEOs of three of the world's biggest automakers asked Treasury Secretary John Snow to urge Japan not to resume yen sales that they say unfairly make Japanese cars less expensive in the U.S., Bloomberg reported. Caterpillar, its rival Komatsu and SGS SA, which test mineral samples, said sales are rising in Mongolia from a surge in mining exploration in the country, Bloomberg reported. U.S. Medicare advisers in November will assess the safety and cost of surgery as a way for patients to lose weight, the NY Times reported.
Late-Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.25% to +1.0% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.10%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated unch.
BOTTOM LINE: I expect U.S. equities to open modestly higher in the morning on better economic data, gains in Asia, declining oil prices, short-covering and end-of-the-quarter window dressing. The Portfolio is 125% net long heading into tomorrow.
Wednesday, September 29, 2004
Wednesday Close
S&P 500 1,114.80 +.43%
NASDAQ 1,893.94 +1.29%
Leading Sectors
Disk Drives +2.91%
Airlines +2.21%
Semis +1.85%
Lagging Sectors
Energy -1.18%
Oil Service -1.51%
Broadcasting -2.20%
Other
Crude Oil 49.56 -.68%
Natural Gas 6.91 +8.82%
Gold 414.90 +.17%
Base Metals 117.28 +.88%
U.S. Dollar 88.07 -.05%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.09% +2.10%
VIX 13.21 -4.48%
Put/Call .84 -6.67%
NYSE Arms .79 -11.24%
After-hours Movers
TLB -8.29% after cutting 3Q forecast.
RECN -4.84% after substantially beating 1Q estimates and saying future hiring may hurt operating income.
NARA +4.15%
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on PFE. Goldman reiterated Underperform on TSG and S.
After-hours News
U.S. stocks rose today, led by technology shares, after oil prices fell and an economic report showed faster economic growth than originally expected. After the close, Saudi Arabia's top religious authority banned the use of camera cellular phones, saying the devices are responsible for helping to spread "obscenity," the AP reported. The Montreal Expos said they're moving to Washington next season, bringing Major League Baseball back to the nation's capital after a 33-year absence, Bloomberg said. The chairman of a U.S. Congress panel responsible for Fannie Mae gained authority to subpoena executives at the biggest U.S. mortgage finance company for information related to allegations of accounting violations, Bloomberg reported. AIG said the U.S. Department of Justice is investigating the company for helping PNC Financial Services remove bad loans from its books, Bloomberg said. A judge struck down portions of the USA Patriot Act requiring Internet and telephone companies to surrender customer records sought in terrorism investigations and barring notice to clients that their data was handed over, Bloomberg reported. Micron Technology reported a second-straight quarterly profit as sales jumped 34%, Bloomberg reported. Delphi said the U.S. SEC is investigating $86.5 million of the company's transactions with computer-services provider Electronic Data Systems, Bloomberg said.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished unchanged today as my rising internet and homebuilding longs offset losses in my commodity-related longs. I covered a few technology shorts in the afternoon and added some semiconductor longs, leaving the Portfolio 125% net long. One of my new longs is BRCM and I am using a $26.50 stop-loss on this position. Volume increased and the advance/decline line was pretty strong today. However, measures of investor complacency rose again. The major U.S. indices will likely remain strong through week's end.
NASDAQ 1,893.94 +1.29%
Leading Sectors
Disk Drives +2.91%
Airlines +2.21%
Semis +1.85%
Lagging Sectors
Energy -1.18%
Oil Service -1.51%
Broadcasting -2.20%
Other
Crude Oil 49.56 -.68%
Natural Gas 6.91 +8.82%
Gold 414.90 +.17%
Base Metals 117.28 +.88%
U.S. Dollar 88.07 -.05%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.09% +2.10%
VIX 13.21 -4.48%
Put/Call .84 -6.67%
NYSE Arms .79 -11.24%
After-hours Movers
TLB -8.29% after cutting 3Q forecast.
RECN -4.84% after substantially beating 1Q estimates and saying future hiring may hurt operating income.
NARA +4.15%
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on PFE. Goldman reiterated Underperform on TSG and S.
After-hours News
U.S. stocks rose today, led by technology shares, after oil prices fell and an economic report showed faster economic growth than originally expected. After the close, Saudi Arabia's top religious authority banned the use of camera cellular phones, saying the devices are responsible for helping to spread "obscenity," the AP reported. The Montreal Expos said they're moving to Washington next season, bringing Major League Baseball back to the nation's capital after a 33-year absence, Bloomberg said. The chairman of a U.S. Congress panel responsible for Fannie Mae gained authority to subpoena executives at the biggest U.S. mortgage finance company for information related to allegations of accounting violations, Bloomberg reported. AIG said the U.S. Department of Justice is investigating the company for helping PNC Financial Services remove bad loans from its books, Bloomberg said. A judge struck down portions of the USA Patriot Act requiring Internet and telephone companies to surrender customer records sought in terrorism investigations and barring notice to clients that their data was handed over, Bloomberg reported. Micron Technology reported a second-straight quarterly profit as sales jumped 34%, Bloomberg reported. Delphi said the U.S. SEC is investigating $86.5 million of the company's transactions with computer-services provider Electronic Data Systems, Bloomberg said.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished unchanged today as my rising internet and homebuilding longs offset losses in my commodity-related longs. I covered a few technology shorts in the afternoon and added some semiconductor longs, leaving the Portfolio 125% net long. One of my new longs is BRCM and I am using a $26.50 stop-loss on this position. Volume increased and the advance/decline line was pretty strong today. However, measures of investor complacency rose again. The major U.S. indices will likely remain strong through week's end.
Mid-day Uddate
S&P 500 1,110.61 +.05%
NASDAQ 1,889.26 +1.03%
Leading Sectors
Disk Drives +2.76%
Semis +2.29%
Airlines +2.07%
Lagging Sectors
Energy -1.48%
Broadcasting -1.72%
Oil Service -2.19%
Other
Crude Oil 48.60 -2.71%
Natural Gas 6.73 +7.70%
Gold 415.20 +.24%
Base Metals 117.28 +.88%
U.S. Dollar 88.19 +.10%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.09% +2.20%
VIX 13.33 -3.62%
Put/Call .73 -18.89%
NYSE Arms 1.05 +17.98%
Market Movers
ORBZ +30.8% after Cendant(CD) agreed to buy it for $1.25 billion.
GOOG +4.0% after Morgan Stanley rated it Overweight.
IACI +5.6% on ORBZ news.
JMDT +41.0% on strong IPO demand.
CAT +3.9% on continued optimism over earnings forecast.
PFCB +5.5% after meeting 3Q estimates.
SHFL +5.8% as Calyon Securities rated it Add.
INSP +5.1% as Raymond James rated it Strong Buy.
BLUD +7.8% after beating 1Q estimates and raising 05 forecast.
PCLN +9.6% on ORBZ news.
PDX -15.2% after lowering 3Q/4Q outlook.
CPC -12.7% after cutting 04 guidance and multiple downgrades.
TSCO -5.8% after lowering 3Q forecast.
Economic Data
Final 2Q GDP rose 3.3% versus estimates of 3.0% and a prior estimate of 2.8%.
Final 2Q Personal Consumption rose 1.6% versus estimates of 1.6% and a prior estimate of 1.6%.
Final 2Q Price Deflator rose 3.2% versus estimates of 3.2% and a prior estimate of 3.2%.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on MDT, AMT, SLR, BIIB, AMGN, GDT, MET, CCL, RCL, GCI, CAT, Goldman reiterated Underperform on FHCC and DJ. Citi SmithBarney rated DEX Sell, target $19. Citi said to Buy WMT on weakness, target $65. Citi reiterated Sell on CLX, target $47. Citi reiterated Buy on AMGN, target $90. Citi reiterated Buy on LOW, target $67. Citi reiterated Sell on GDT, target $54. JNY raised to Overweight at JP Morgan. SPH cut to Reduce at UBS, target $32. WPI rated Outperform at CSFB, target $37. IPXL rated Outperform at CSFB, target $22. MAR raised to Sector Outperform at CIBC. LQI raised to Sector Outperform at CIBC.
Mid-day News
U.S. stocks are rising mid-day as energy prices fall and a report showed economic growth exceeded expectations for the third-quarter. Sprint plans to provide Internet and telephone service to a chain of U.S. coffeehouses owned by the National Federation of Coffee Growers of Columbia, the NY Times reported. Burger King signed up a franchise partner to open its first restaurants in Brazil, Valor Economico reported. China will pursue reunification with Taiwan through peaceful means to keep the country whole, China Central TV said. Martha Stewart will serve her prison term for obstruction of justice at a facility in West Virginia, CNBC reported. Many Floridians are suffering depression and anxiety after living through four hurricanes in six weeks, the AP reported. Senator Brownback said lawmakers from the U.S. senate and House of Representatives agreed to raise the maximum fines for broadcasting indecency, the LA Times reported. A measure of the number of applications to buy a home or refinance existing mortgages rose last week to the highest level since early May, Bloomberg reported. ConocoPhillips will buy 7.6% of OAO Lukoil of Russia for $1.99 billion and said it may raise that stake further, Bloomberg reported. SpaceShipOne, financed by Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen and built by aviation pioneer Burt Rutan, rocketed high over the California desert early today in a quest to win a $10 million competition designed to accelerate space tourism, Bloomberg said. The IMF said world economic growth will be a very robust 4.3% in 2005 after reaching 5.0% this year, the strongest in almost 30 years, Bloomberg reported. Crude oil fell for the first session in 10 after the Energy Department reported an unexpected increase in U.S. stockpiles, easing concern about the production and shipping disruptions caused by Hurricane Ivan, Bloomberg reported. U.S. GDP growth rose 3.3%, more than previously forecast for the third-quarter, on stronger exports and inventory rebuilding, Bloomberg said.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly higher mid-day on strength in my internet and homebuilding longs. I have not traded today and the Portfolio is still 100% net long. The tone of the market is pretty good on the unexpected build in oil inventories and better economic growth. Considering recent disruptions, the build bodes well for further declines in oil prices. Interest rates should continue heading modestly high through year-end on a reacceleration in U.S. economic growth. Shorting TLT is one way to play this. I expect stocks to continue moving modestly higher over the next couple of days on short-covering, end-of-the-quarter window dressing, better economic data, declining energy prices and the Presidential debate.
NASDAQ 1,889.26 +1.03%
Leading Sectors
Disk Drives +2.76%
Semis +2.29%
Airlines +2.07%
Lagging Sectors
Energy -1.48%
Broadcasting -1.72%
Oil Service -2.19%
Other
Crude Oil 48.60 -2.71%
Natural Gas 6.73 +7.70%
Gold 415.20 +.24%
Base Metals 117.28 +.88%
U.S. Dollar 88.19 +.10%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.09% +2.20%
VIX 13.33 -3.62%
Put/Call .73 -18.89%
NYSE Arms 1.05 +17.98%
Market Movers
ORBZ +30.8% after Cendant(CD) agreed to buy it for $1.25 billion.
GOOG +4.0% after Morgan Stanley rated it Overweight.
IACI +5.6% on ORBZ news.
JMDT +41.0% on strong IPO demand.
CAT +3.9% on continued optimism over earnings forecast.
PFCB +5.5% after meeting 3Q estimates.
SHFL +5.8% as Calyon Securities rated it Add.
INSP +5.1% as Raymond James rated it Strong Buy.
BLUD +7.8% after beating 1Q estimates and raising 05 forecast.
PCLN +9.6% on ORBZ news.
PDX -15.2% after lowering 3Q/4Q outlook.
CPC -12.7% after cutting 04 guidance and multiple downgrades.
TSCO -5.8% after lowering 3Q forecast.
Economic Data
Final 2Q GDP rose 3.3% versus estimates of 3.0% and a prior estimate of 2.8%.
Final 2Q Personal Consumption rose 1.6% versus estimates of 1.6% and a prior estimate of 1.6%.
Final 2Q Price Deflator rose 3.2% versus estimates of 3.2% and a prior estimate of 3.2%.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on MDT, AMT, SLR, BIIB, AMGN, GDT, MET, CCL, RCL, GCI, CAT, Goldman reiterated Underperform on FHCC and DJ. Citi SmithBarney rated DEX Sell, target $19. Citi said to Buy WMT on weakness, target $65. Citi reiterated Sell on CLX, target $47. Citi reiterated Buy on AMGN, target $90. Citi reiterated Buy on LOW, target $67. Citi reiterated Sell on GDT, target $54. JNY raised to Overweight at JP Morgan. SPH cut to Reduce at UBS, target $32. WPI rated Outperform at CSFB, target $37. IPXL rated Outperform at CSFB, target $22. MAR raised to Sector Outperform at CIBC. LQI raised to Sector Outperform at CIBC.
Mid-day News
U.S. stocks are rising mid-day as energy prices fall and a report showed economic growth exceeded expectations for the third-quarter. Sprint plans to provide Internet and telephone service to a chain of U.S. coffeehouses owned by the National Federation of Coffee Growers of Columbia, the NY Times reported. Burger King signed up a franchise partner to open its first restaurants in Brazil, Valor Economico reported. China will pursue reunification with Taiwan through peaceful means to keep the country whole, China Central TV said. Martha Stewart will serve her prison term for obstruction of justice at a facility in West Virginia, CNBC reported. Many Floridians are suffering depression and anxiety after living through four hurricanes in six weeks, the AP reported. Senator Brownback said lawmakers from the U.S. senate and House of Representatives agreed to raise the maximum fines for broadcasting indecency, the LA Times reported. A measure of the number of applications to buy a home or refinance existing mortgages rose last week to the highest level since early May, Bloomberg reported. ConocoPhillips will buy 7.6% of OAO Lukoil of Russia for $1.99 billion and said it may raise that stake further, Bloomberg reported. SpaceShipOne, financed by Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen and built by aviation pioneer Burt Rutan, rocketed high over the California desert early today in a quest to win a $10 million competition designed to accelerate space tourism, Bloomberg said. The IMF said world economic growth will be a very robust 4.3% in 2005 after reaching 5.0% this year, the strongest in almost 30 years, Bloomberg reported. Crude oil fell for the first session in 10 after the Energy Department reported an unexpected increase in U.S. stockpiles, easing concern about the production and shipping disruptions caused by Hurricane Ivan, Bloomberg reported. U.S. GDP growth rose 3.3%, more than previously forecast for the third-quarter, on stronger exports and inventory rebuilding, Bloomberg said.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly higher mid-day on strength in my internet and homebuilding longs. I have not traded today and the Portfolio is still 100% net long. The tone of the market is pretty good on the unexpected build in oil inventories and better economic growth. Considering recent disruptions, the build bodes well for further declines in oil prices. Interest rates should continue heading modestly high through year-end on a reacceleration in U.S. economic growth. Shorting TLT is one way to play this. I expect stocks to continue moving modestly higher over the next couple of days on short-covering, end-of-the-quarter window dressing, better economic data, declining energy prices and the Presidential debate.
Wednesday Watch
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
AM/.00
ARRO/.34
BLUD/.14
MKC/.32
MU/.20
RECN/.32
Splits
CATY 2-for-1
Economic Data
Final 2Q GDP estimated +3.0% versus a prior estimate of +2.8%.
Final 2Q Personal Consumption estimated +1.6% versus a prior estimate of +1.6%.
Final 2Q GDP Price Deflator estimated +3.2% versus a prior estimate of +3.2%.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on DVN, SLR, AMT, CLX and AMGN.
Late-Night News
Asian indices are quietly mixed as strength in Australian shares is being offset by weakness in Hong Kong. The U.S. may bring North Korea before the United Nations Security Council if the communist country doesn't continue talks to dismantle its nuclear programs, Agence France-Presse reported. Funds owned by AMP Ltd., Australia's largest life insurer, raised their stake in Fisher & Paykel Appliances Holdings to 5.2%, betting that U.S. distribution and technology accords will bolster earnings, Bloomberg reported. Toyota Motor and Nissan Motor may start production in Russia to boost their market share in what is expected to be the world's third-fastest growing car market over the next four years, Bloomberg said. China's university graduates face increasing pressure to find jobs, with the number of students expected to complete their degrees in 2005 rising 21% from this year to 3.38 million, the official Xinhua news agency said. The dollar fell against the yen in Asia after Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas President Hoenig said a lower dollar helped with the U.S. trade deficit and that the news on inflation is good, Bloomberg reported. Taiwan may have the technology to mass produce mid-range missiles capable of striking Shanghai in two years, a lawmaker said, adding teeth to Premier Yu Shyi-kun's warning that the island will retaliate if China attacks, Bloomberg reported. American International Group Chairman Greenberg said he may buy U.S. property and casualty competitors stung by losses, Bloomberg said.
Late-Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.25% to +.50% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.01%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.04%
BOTTOM LINE: I expect U.S. equities to open modestly higher in the morning on a continuation of today's rally. I will closely watch the market's reaction to the energy inventory data before shifting the Portfolio's market exposure. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into tomorrow.
Company/Estimate
AM/.00
ARRO/.34
BLUD/.14
MKC/.32
MU/.20
RECN/.32
Splits
CATY 2-for-1
Economic Data
Final 2Q GDP estimated +3.0% versus a prior estimate of +2.8%.
Final 2Q Personal Consumption estimated +1.6% versus a prior estimate of +1.6%.
Final 2Q GDP Price Deflator estimated +3.2% versus a prior estimate of +3.2%.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on DVN, SLR, AMT, CLX and AMGN.
Late-Night News
Asian indices are quietly mixed as strength in Australian shares is being offset by weakness in Hong Kong. The U.S. may bring North Korea before the United Nations Security Council if the communist country doesn't continue talks to dismantle its nuclear programs, Agence France-Presse reported. Funds owned by AMP Ltd., Australia's largest life insurer, raised their stake in Fisher & Paykel Appliances Holdings to 5.2%, betting that U.S. distribution and technology accords will bolster earnings, Bloomberg reported. Toyota Motor and Nissan Motor may start production in Russia to boost their market share in what is expected to be the world's third-fastest growing car market over the next four years, Bloomberg said. China's university graduates face increasing pressure to find jobs, with the number of students expected to complete their degrees in 2005 rising 21% from this year to 3.38 million, the official Xinhua news agency said. The dollar fell against the yen in Asia after Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas President Hoenig said a lower dollar helped with the U.S. trade deficit and that the news on inflation is good, Bloomberg reported. Taiwan may have the technology to mass produce mid-range missiles capable of striking Shanghai in two years, a lawmaker said, adding teeth to Premier Yu Shyi-kun's warning that the island will retaliate if China attacks, Bloomberg reported. American International Group Chairman Greenberg said he may buy U.S. property and casualty competitors stung by losses, Bloomberg said.
Late-Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.25% to +.50% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.01%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.04%
BOTTOM LINE: I expect U.S. equities to open modestly higher in the morning on a continuation of today's rally. I will closely watch the market's reaction to the energy inventory data before shifting the Portfolio's market exposure. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into tomorrow.
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