Thursday, November 11, 2004

Thursday Watch

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
A/.31
AEOS/.77
BEAS/.08
DELL/.33
ISLE/.02
KSS/.42
PIXR/.24
TIF/.19
TGT/.38
URBN/.30

Splits
None of note.

Economic Data
None of note.

Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Attractive View of Lodging sector.

Late-Night News
Asian indices are mixed as strength in China is offset by weakness in Japan. China isn't likely to revalue the yuan in the short-term because the country's trade is relatively balanced this year, the official Xinhua news agency reported. China's jet fighters approached Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian's plane on Sept. 27 on his way to the Penghu island, delaying the trip by 15 minutes, the United Daily News said. International Paper of the U.S. teamed up with Beijing Sanyuan Foods to expand sales of pasteurized milk in China's capital, the China Daily reported. News Corp.'s board could meet next week to approve its proposed shareholder rights plan and thwart a potential takeover from John Malone's Liberty Media, the Financial Times reported. Singapore's trade with the U.S. rose 10% between January and July following a free trade agreement signed between the two countries, the Straits Times reported. TJX Cos. and PC Connection are among Internet retailers that are switching to a streamlined checkout process to boost sales, the Wall Street Journal reported. Oracle said PeopleSoft plans to reject its $8.8 billion takeover bid, Bloomberg reported. UPS, American Airlines and other air-cargo carriers would have to expand background checks and screening under a U.S. plan that would cost the companies an estimated $75.8 million a year, Bloomberg said. The U.S. government lowered the terrorism alert level for financial sites in NY City, Washington and northern New Jersey, because those buildings are now "hardened," or sufficiently protected, Bloomberg said. BearingPoint said Chairman and CEO Blazer resigned, effective today, Bloomberg reported. President Bush named White House counsel Alberto Gonzales to be U.S. attorney general and help lead the war on terrorism. Gonzales would be the first Hispanic to serve as the nation's top law enforcement official, Bloomberg said. Australia's economy added twice as many jobs in October as economists expected, pushing the unemployment rate to 5.3%, the lowest since 1978, as increased profits prompted companies to hire workers to meet rising demand, Bloomberg reported. Jones Apparel Group is near an agreement to buy Barneys New York, the NY Times reported. Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat has died in a military hospital in Paris at age 75, Fox News reported. China's stock indices gained for a third day after the China Securities Journal reported the country may allow banks to set up fund management units this year. Microsoft's new search engine, designed to grab market share from Google, will include a "near me" button that helps users find sites for a given location and a feature that answers questions such as "What is the capital of Turkey?", Bloomberg reported.

Late-Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.75% to +.75% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.09%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.07%

BOTTOM LINE: I expect U.S. equities to open mixed in the morning as the major indices continue to consolidate recent gains. A follow-through move higher in energy prices and apprehension over Dell's earnings report could send shares modestly lower by day's end. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into tomorrow.

Tuesday, November 09, 2004

Mid-day Update

S&P 500 1,164.54 -.03%
NASDAQ 2,040.51 +.06%


Leading Sectors
HMOs +3.22%
Iron/Steel +1.40%
Homebuilders +1.36%

Lagging Sectors
Networking -.39%
Retail -.50%
Semis -.83%

Other
Crude Oil 48.10 -2.02%
Natural Gas 7.50 -1.32%
Gold 436.20 +.62%
Base Metals 116.76 -.49%
U.S. Dollar 84.12 +.04%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.20% -.33%
VIX 13.49 -2.25%
Put/Call .71 +9.23%
NYSE Arms .95 +25.00%

Market Movers

Economic Data
Wholesale Inventories for September rose .5% versus estimates of a .7% increase and a 1.1% gain in August.

Recommendations

Mid-day News

Bottom Line: The Portfolio is modestly lower mid-day on weakness in my internet and security longs. I exited a few longs as they hit stop-losses this morning and added to several existing technology longs, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. I added to my BRCM long and I am using a $26.5 stop-loss on the entire position. Overall, the tone of the market is pretty good today as the major indices continue a healthy consolidation. I expect U.S. stocks to move modestly higher into the close on short-covering, optimism over improving economic growth and lower energy prices.

Monday, November 08, 2004

Mid-day Update

S&P 500 1,165.11 -.09%
NASDAQ 2,038.07 -.04%


Leading Sectors
Iron/Steel +.84%
Tobacco +.79%
Homebuilders +.72%

Lagging Sectors
Energy -1.74%
I-Banks -2.04%
Oil Service -2.77%

Other
Crude Oil 49.05 -1.13%
Natural Gas 7.60 -4.45%
Gold 433.60 -.16%
Base Metals 117.33 +.01%
U.S. Dollar 84.03 +.02%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.21% +.94%
VIX 13.85 -.07%
Put/Call .66 -5.71%
NYSE Arms .83 +53.70%

Market Movers

Economic Data
None of note.

Recommendations

Mid-day News

Bottom Line: The Portfolio is substantially higher mid-day on strength in my security, internet and healthcare longs. I took profits in a couple of my gaming longs this morning and added a few new technology longs, thus leaving the Portfolio 125% net long. One of my new longs is GOOG and I am using a $168 stop-loss on this position. The tone of the market is good today as many leading stocks are higher as the major indices consolidate recent gains. I plan to use any Iraq-related weakness to buy aggressively over the coming weeks. I expect U.S. stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close.

Saturday, November 06, 2004

***Alert***

Blogging will be light over the next few days, as I am traveling.

Friday, November 05, 2004

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices
S&P 500 1,166.17 +3.18%
Dow 10,387.54 +3.59%
NASDAQ 2,038.94 +3.24%
Russell 2000 604.29 +3.51%
S&P Equity Long/Short Index 981.21 +.34%
Put/Call .70 +4.48%
NYSE Arms .54 -41.94%
Volatility(VIX) 13.84 -14.95%
AAII % Bulls 57.14 +35.05%
US Dollar 84.01 -1.03%
CRB 283.66 -.01%

Futures Spot Prices
Gold 434.30 +1.12%
Crude Oil 49.61 -4.14%
Unleaded Gasoline 128.68 -3.18%
Natural Gas 7.95 -8.78%
Heating Oil 137.41 -6.17%
Base Metals 117.32 +1.04%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.18% +3.73%
Average 30-year Mortgage Rate 5.70% +1.06%

Leading Sectors
Airlines +9.8%
HMOs +8.6%
Gaming +7.1%

Lagging Sectors
Semis +1.4%
Wireless -.1%
Oil Service -1.4%

*% Gain or loss for the week

***Alert***

There will not be a Mid-day Update today due to a scheduling conflict. However, I will post the Weekly Scoreboard tonight. Feel free to comment between yourselves. Sorry for the inconveience.