BETWEEN THE HEDGES

Wednesday, November 16, 2005

Thursday Watch

Posted by Gary .....at 11:50 PM

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- China will sell $80 million of copper from inventories next week amid speculation the government is seeking to drive down prices and limit losses from an investment by one of its traders.
- US House leaders, seeking support for a budget-cutting plan, dropped from a transportation measure the designation of $442 million for Alaska projects, including one dubbed a “bridge to nowhere.”
- Taiwan is a “sovereign country” and is concerned China will use “military hegemony” to reunify the two, Taiwan’s representative said at a summit of Asia-Pacific leaders in South Korea.

Financial Times:
- China stopped plans to let foreign news publications print inn the mainland on concerns news about the “color revolutions” in the West may undermine political order.

AP:
- The LA Times plans to cut about 85 newsroom jobs, or 8% of its editorial staff, before the end of the year.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Underperform on AMAT, APU and HCCC.

Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.04%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.09%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
ARO/.46
ADSK/.30
BKS/-.02
BEAS/.10
PLCE/.91
CLE/.35
FL/.42
GPS/.24
HRB/-.16
HPQ/.46
HUG/.67
LTD/-.03
MRVL/.33
JWN/.35
TSA/.09
SBUX/.15
DIS/.18
WSM/.30

Upcoming Splits
SWN 2-for-1

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- Housing Starts for October are estimated to fall to 2070K versus 2108K in September.
- Building Permits for October are estimated to fall to 2160K versus 2219K in September.
- Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 324K versus 326K the prior week.
- Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 2790K versus 2818K prior.

9:15 am EST
- Industrial Production for October is estimated to rise 1.0% versus a 1.5% decline in September.
- Capacity Utilization for October is estimated to rise to 79.6% versus 79.0% in September.

12:00 pm EST
- Philly Fed for November is estimated to fall to 15.3 versus a reading of 17.3 in October.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by exporters in the region. I expect US equities to open mixed and to trade modestly higher later in the day. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Finish Slightly Lower Even as Long-term Rates Fall

Posted by Gary .....at 6:25 PM

Indices
S&P 500 1,231.21 +.18%
DJIA 10,674.76 -.11%
NASDAQ 2,187.93 +.05%
Russell 2000 654.64 -.24%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,283.90 +.14%
S&P Barra Growth 591.20 +.33%
S&P Barra Value 635.69 +.04%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 589.64 -.22%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 747.02 -.08%
Morgan Stanley Technology 514.76 +.30%
Transports 4,001.65 -.11%
Utilities 391.45 +.84%
Put/Call .77 -6.10%
NYSE Arms .85 -1.37%
Volatility(VIX) 12.26 +.25%
ISE Sentiment 150.00 -8.54%
US Dollar 92.33 +.26%
CRB 315.31 +.82%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 57.82 -.10%
Unleaded Gasoline 148.80 +.34%
Natural Gas 12.36 +.25%
Heating Oil 173.08 +.09%
Gold 479.90 +.17%
Base Metals 138.82 -.20%
Copper 193.30 -.10%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.47% -1.76%

Leading Sectors
Gold & Silver +5.96%
Oil Service +2.92%
Energy +2.39%

Lagging Sectors
Alternative Energy -.94%
I-Banking -.97%
Broadcasting -1.45%

Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
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In Play

Afternoon Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on IMCL, GILD, WEC and ACN.
- Reiterated Underperform on SGP.

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- US Treasuries rose, led by the biggest gain in 10-year notes since June, after government reports showed consumer prices increased in October at the slowest pace in four months and foreign demand for US assets soared.
- Ford Motor introduced discounts combining reduced prices and rebates two days after competitor GM rolled out new sales incentives.

Financial Times:
- VNU NV, the owner of market researcher ACNielsen, may say tomorrow it will abandon its plan to buy IMS Health for $7 billion.

NY Times:
- The SEC is investigating whether a Wachovia Corp. analyst was fired for refusing to alter securities recommendations to win i-banking business.

AP:
- Irving “Irv Gotti” Lorenzo, founder of the hip-hop recording label Murder Inc., and his brother Christopher went on trial in NY yesterday on racketeering charges, including allegedly laundering money for a drug dealer.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished unchanged today as gains in my Internet longs, Retail longs and Computer longs offset losses in my Energy-related shorts. I did not trade in the afternoon, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market was negative today as the advance/decline line finished lower, sector performance was mixed and volume was average. Measures of investor anxiety were mixed into the close. Overall, today's market action was slightly negative. I expect the Fed to make increasingly more dovish comments by early next year as housing continues to slow to more healthy levels and energy prices remain far weaker than most expect. Investors should begin anticipating this soon. I continue to believe U.S. economic growth is slowing to average levels from vigorous rates before the hurricanes and that inflation has peaked for this cycle. This "Goldilocks" economic environment will boost U.S. stock prices.

Stocks Slightly Lower Mid-day on Rising Energy Prices and Worries Over Slowdown in Housing

Posted by Gary .....at 2:48 PM

Indices
S&P 500 1,229.10 unch.
DJIA 10,657.95 -.27%
NASDAQ 2,182.68 -.19%
Russell 2000 652.00 -.64%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,257.54 -.08%
S&P Barra Growth 590.15 +.15%
S&P Barra Value 634.27 -.19%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 588.59 -.40%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 745.03 -.35%
Morgan Stanley Technology 513.21 +.01%
Transports 3,986.30 -.50%
Utilities 391.43 +.84%
Put/Call .83 +1.22%
NYSE Arms .80 -7.86%
Volatility(VIX) 12.53 +2.37%
ISE Sentiment 159.00 -3.05%
US Dollar 92.33 +.26%
CRB 315.67 +.96%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 58.05 +2.0%
Unleaded Gasoline 149.20 +2.44%
Natural Gas 12.37 +7.07%
Heating Oil 174.00 +3.52%
Gold 479.20 +2.17%
Base Metals 138.82 -.20%
Copper 193.50 +.16%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.48% -1.51%

Leading Sectors
Gold & Silver +5.51%
Oil Service +2.22%
Energy +1.95%

Lagging Sectors
I-Banks -1.20%
Networking -1.36%
Broadcasting -1.38%

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly lower mid-day on losses in my Medical longs, Medical Information System longs and Energy-related shorts. I covered some of my IWM and QQQQ shorts this morning, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market is negative as the advance/decline line is lower, most sectors are falling and volume is average. Measures of investor anxiety are mostly higher. Overall, today’s market action is slightly negative considering the fall in long-term rates, the rise in energy prices, recent gains and positive economic data. Yahoo! (YHOO) is rising 5.4% today on above-average volume and is within .15 of levels last seen during 2000. This bodes well for Google (GOOG), which is preparing an assault on $400. Google remains my largest long position. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher from current levels into the close as lower long-term rates more than offsets profit-taking.

Today's Headlines

Posted by Gary .....at 12:54 PM

Bloomberg:
- American Express CEO Chenault said fourth-quarter earnings won’t be as high as some analysts estimate.
- Tyco International CEO Breen said the conglomerate’s board is considering splitting up the company, unraveling the acquisition strategy of his predecessor, Dennis Kozlowski.
- The US Senate Banking Committee approved Ben Bernanke’s nomination as Federal Reserve chairman and sent it to the full Senate, clearing the way for his confirmation before Alan Greenspan retires Jan. 31.
- US Treasuries are rising, pushing the yield on the 10-year note to the lowest this month, after a government report showed consumer prices increased in October at the slowest pace since June.

Wall Street Journal:
- Some Nasdaq stocks will soon be listed with one-, two- or three-letter symbols compared with the current four.
- The US’s largest broadcasters will appear at a news conference in NY today in an attempt to persuade advertisers that digital video recorders, which allow viewers to skip commercial breaks, may not be the threat many think they are.
- Web sites, such as Yahoo!, are increasingly barring new customers from their most popular pages and raising advertising rates.
- US school vouchers that allow use of public money to pay for private education are gaining support in Louisiana after parochial schools began accepting students while public schools stay closed.
- Rising prices of copper, iron ore and other basic commodities have meant two lucrative years for mining companies, but as they open new mines to meet demand, they’re facing cost pressures.
- The UN war crimes tribunal today acquitted the former chief of staff of the Muslim-led Bosnian army over his alleged involvement in the killings of dozens of Bosnian Croat civilians in 1993.

NY Times:
- The NFL is looking for a partner to create an all-sports network that would show regular-season games and help increase viewers for the NFL Network.
- Some US celebrities might be putting themselves in legal jeopardy by signing endorsement deals with online casinos.

Consumer Prices Subdued, Inventories at Record Lows, International Investors' Appetite for US Assets at Record High Levels

Posted by Gary .....at 10:55 AM

- The Consumer Price Index for October rose .2% versus estimates of an unchanged reading and a 1.2% gain in September.
- The CPI Ex Food & Energy for October rose .2% versus estimates of a .2% increase and a .1% gain in September.
- Business Inventories for September rose .5% versus estimates of a .3% increase and a .4% gain in August.
- Net Foreign Security Purchases for September rose to $101.9B versus estimates of $75.0B and $89.0B in August.

BOTTOM LINE: Prices paid by US consumers in October rose at the slowest pace in four months as energy prices receded from records a month earlier, Bloomberg said. Core prices are now rising at a 2.1% annual rate versus a 2.2% gain at this time last year. The cost of all goods including cars, apparel and food fell .5% last month after rising 2.4% in September. Gas prices fell 4.5%, computer prices fell .8% and the cost of clothing fell .4%. I continue to believe inflation fears have peaked, with gauges decelerating over the intermediate-term.

US business inventories rose more than expected in September, as auto dealers rebuilt stocks depleted by discounting earlier this year, Bloomberg reported. Inventories are at record lows relative to sales. I continue to believe inventory rebuilding will boost economic growth over the next few months.

International investors added to their net holdings of US assets by a record $101.9 billion in September as the world’s largest economy outpaced other developed nations, Bloomberg reported. The US dollar is approaching a two-year high as the report led traders to believe the US has no problems attracting capital to cover the current account deficit. International investors added $24.6 billion to net stock holdings, the largest increase in almost 5 years. Caribbean holdings, which are linked to hedge funds in the region, fell by $500 million. As I predicted a few months ago, international investors’ demand for US assets is increasing and will continue to remain strong over the intermediate-term.