Bloomberg:
- French Interior Minister Nicolas Sarkozy said 10,000 cars, more than 200 administration buildings and thousands of square meters of commercial property were torched in violence that rocked the country earlier this month.
- Mexico probably will surpass the US in obesity rates for the first time next year.
- US retailers recorded sales of $27.8 billion over the holiday weekend, putting the industry on track for its second-biggest selling season since 1999, said the National Retail Federation.
- Saddam Hussein argued with the judge in his murder and torture case minutes after proceedings resumed in Baghdad today.
- Merck & Co. will eliminate 7,000 jobs and close five plants and said it still has “work to do.”
- Online sales for US retailers rose 24% to $6.96 billion this month as shoppers got an early start on their holiday purchases.
- Crude oil is falling and heating oil touched a four-month low as warm weather in the eastern US reduces fuel consumption, pushing inventories even higher.
Wall Street Journal:
- Tivo Inc. is joining with media-buying groups, including Interpublic Group’s Interpublic Media, to offer customers a way to search for commercials on topics in which they are interested.
- Alvaro de Molina took over as chief financial officer at Bank of America on Sept. 8, and the bank’s shares have risen 9.2% since then, as some investors and analysts bet on de Molina as the “Mr. Fix-It” who’s been needed.
- American Pharmaceutical Partners, a Schaumberg, Illinois-based maker of generic hospital drugs, may acquire its largest shareholder, closely held American BioScience of Santa Monica, California.
- Dallas has distributed about $160 million in grants and tax abatements to convert most of the city’s downtown business district into an upscale neighborhood with 10,000 residences.
NY Post:
- J. Crew Group Inc. will sell men’s accessories out of a custom-outfitted sport-utility vehicle that will make stops throughout Manhattan this week.
Washington Post:
- Democrats are split over legislation aimed at controlling Medicaid growth, with federal lawmakers opposed to the provisions and Democratic governors supporting them.
NY Times:
- Classified advertising on Internet sites rose more than 80% this year, with traffic at Craigslist.org climbing 165% from a year ago.
AP:
- President Bush will travel to Arizona today to speak about border enforcement and call for immigration reform.
Sudan Tribune:
- Sudan will boost oil production to 600,000 barrels a day by the middle of 2006 and may reach 1 million barrels a day by the end of the year, President Umar al-Bashir said.
Monday, November 28, 2005
Existing Home Sales Fall Modestly
- Existing Home Sales for October fell to 7.09 million versus estimates of 7.20 million and 7.29 million in September.
BOTTOM LINE: US previously owned home sales fell a larger-than-expected 2.7% last month, Bloomberg reported. Sales would have declined 3.2% in October excluding hurricane-related buying activity. The median price of an existing home rose 16.6% to $218,000 in October, the largest increase since July 1979. Sales fell 7.4% in the Northeast, 1.9% in the Midwest, 1.8% in the South and 1.2% in the West. Existing home inventories rose to 4.9 months’ worth at the current sales pace, an increase from 4.6 months’ worth the prior month. I continue to believe the housing market is slowing, not plunging, to more healthy sustainable levels.
Sunday, November 27, 2005
Monday Watch
Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:
- U.S. retail sales jumped 22 percent to $27.8 billion during the post-Thanksgiving weekend, as shoppers flocked to stores to buy electronics, clothing and books, the National Retail Federation said.
- Retail spending on Visa credit and debit cards rose 12% on Black Friday, the first day of the holiday shopping season, led by purchases of electronic and computers. Purchases of personal entertainment devices, including Microsoft’s Xbox and Apple’s iPod, as well as computers, accounted for 19% of all retail sales volume.
- Iraqis living abroad will be permitted to take part in the country’s December elections for a new National Assembly, with voting set up in 15 other countries.
- Wal-Mart Stores said November sales at its US stores rose about 4.3%.
- Crude oil is falling in NY after forecasters predicted above-average temperatures in the US Northeast this week, leading to lower demand for fuel.
Barron’s:
- The number of US family foundations has climbed more than 60% during the past six years to about 33,000.
NY Times:
- Roche Holding AG expects to make an announcement on licenses for Tamiflu in coming weeks.
- Web logs are becoming more mainstream and less rebellious as blog advertising rises.
- The switch by large retailers to wireless cash registers from dial-up connections is inevitable.
- The US military is working to help soldiers in Iraq and Afghanistan cope with stress and grief in an effort to ward off post-traumatic stress.
- New York has approved emissions standards for cars and light trucks, based on California regulations, that the state says will add more than $1,000 in costs to each vehicle when adopted.
- Public and corporate pension plans have been investing billions of dollars in hedge funds in an effort to generate higher returns to meet demand from an increasing number of retirees.
- Canadian Prime Minister Martin’s Liberal Party government may fall in a no-confidence vote tomorrow, undercutting an international conference on greenhouse gases in Montreal.
- Verizon Communications and AT&T face large capital expenditures and higher charges for content than cable providers in the telephone companies’ bid to enter the television business.
Washington Post:
- Candidates who aspire to succeed United Nations Secretary General Kofi Annan when his term ends next year have begun seeking backing from the US and other Security Council members.
San Francisco Chronicle:
- Advanced Micro Devices has gained 5 percentage points of share to account for 10% of the market for server microprocessors in the third quarter, citing Gartner Inc.
Crain’s Chicago Business:
- Crane leases in Chicago have soared as much as 25% in the past year as construction of high-rise hotels and office towers boosted demand.
Financial Times:
- Revenue at the biggest investment banks surged after being boosted by their brokerage of hedge funds, citing research by Morgan Stanley.
Sunday Times:
- Rolls Royce Group Plc may open a factory in the US to produce its Trent 1000 aero engines.
AME Info.:
- Saudi Arabia’s Oil Minister, Ali al-Naimi, ruled out a cut in OPEC’s oil production quota when it meets in Kuwait next month.
Le Parisien:
- French President Chirac has little influence on what’s happening in France, Europe and the rest of the world, according to a majority of French people polled by research company CSA.
Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
- Had positive comments on MEL, PCZ and KEYN.
- Had negative comments on BOT.
Goldman Sachs:
- None of note
Night Trading
Asian indices are +.25% to +1.0% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.02%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.03%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
- None of note
Upcoming Splits
BRO 2-for-1
Economic Releases
10:00 am EST
- Existing Home Sales for October are estimated to fall to 7.2 million versus 7.28 million in September.
Bloomberg:
- U.S. retail sales jumped 22 percent to $27.8 billion during the post-Thanksgiving weekend, as shoppers flocked to stores to buy electronics, clothing and books, the National Retail Federation said.
- Retail spending on Visa credit and debit cards rose 12% on Black Friday, the first day of the holiday shopping season, led by purchases of electronic and computers. Purchases of personal entertainment devices, including Microsoft’s Xbox and Apple’s iPod, as well as computers, accounted for 19% of all retail sales volume.
- Iraqis living abroad will be permitted to take part in the country’s December elections for a new National Assembly, with voting set up in 15 other countries.
- Wal-Mart Stores said November sales at its US stores rose about 4.3%.
- Crude oil is falling in NY after forecasters predicted above-average temperatures in the US Northeast this week, leading to lower demand for fuel.
Barron’s:
- The number of US family foundations has climbed more than 60% during the past six years to about 33,000.
NY Times:
- Roche Holding AG expects to make an announcement on licenses for Tamiflu in coming weeks.
- Web logs are becoming more mainstream and less rebellious as blog advertising rises.
- The switch by large retailers to wireless cash registers from dial-up connections is inevitable.
- The US military is working to help soldiers in Iraq and Afghanistan cope with stress and grief in an effort to ward off post-traumatic stress.
- New York has approved emissions standards for cars and light trucks, based on California regulations, that the state says will add more than $1,000 in costs to each vehicle when adopted.
- Public and corporate pension plans have been investing billions of dollars in hedge funds in an effort to generate higher returns to meet demand from an increasing number of retirees.
- Canadian Prime Minister Martin’s Liberal Party government may fall in a no-confidence vote tomorrow, undercutting an international conference on greenhouse gases in Montreal.
- Verizon Communications and AT&T face large capital expenditures and higher charges for content than cable providers in the telephone companies’ bid to enter the television business.
Washington Post:
- Candidates who aspire to succeed United Nations Secretary General Kofi Annan when his term ends next year have begun seeking backing from the US and other Security Council members.
San Francisco Chronicle:
- Advanced Micro Devices has gained 5 percentage points of share to account for 10% of the market for server microprocessors in the third quarter, citing Gartner Inc.
Crain’s Chicago Business:
- Crane leases in Chicago have soared as much as 25% in the past year as construction of high-rise hotels and office towers boosted demand.
Financial Times:
- Revenue at the biggest investment banks surged after being boosted by their brokerage of hedge funds, citing research by Morgan Stanley.
Sunday Times:
- Rolls Royce Group Plc may open a factory in the US to produce its Trent 1000 aero engines.
AME Info.:
- Saudi Arabia’s Oil Minister, Ali al-Naimi, ruled out a cut in OPEC’s oil production quota when it meets in Kuwait next month.
Le Parisien:
- French President Chirac has little influence on what’s happening in France, Europe and the rest of the world, according to a majority of French people polled by research company CSA.
Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
- Had positive comments on MEL, PCZ and KEYN.
- Had negative comments on BOT.
Goldman Sachs:
- None of note
Night Trading
Asian indices are +.25% to +1.0% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.02%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.03%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
- None of note
Upcoming Splits
BRO 2-for-1
Economic Releases
10:00 am EST
- Existing Home Sales for October are estimated to fall to 7.2 million versus 7.28 million in September.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian Indices are higher on falling energy prices and optimism for exporters in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.
Weekly Outlook
There are a number of important economic reports and a few significant corporate earnings reports scheduled for release this week.
Economic reports for the week include:
Mon. - Existing Home Sales
Tues. - Durable Goods Orders, Consumer Confidence, New Home Sales
Wed. - Preliminary 32Q GDP, Preliminary 3Q GDP Price Index, Preliminary 3Q Personal Consumption, Chicago Purchasing Manager, Fed’s Beige Book
Thur. - Personal Income, Personal Spending, PCE Deflator, Initial Jobless Claims, Construction Spending, ISM Manufacturing, ISM Prices Paid, Total Vehicle Sales
Fri. - Change in Non-farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
A few of the more noteworthy companies that release quarterly earnings this week are:
Mon. - None of note
Tues. - GameStop Corp.(GME)
Wed. - Chico’s FAS(CHS), Copart(CPRT), Jack in the Box(JBX), McData(MCDTA), Mercury Interactive(MERQE), Synopsys(SNPS), Tiffany & Co.(TIF)
Thur. - Comverse Technology(CMVT), Novell Inc.(NOVL), Omnivision Technology(OVTI)
Fri. - Del Monte(DLM), Dillard’s(DDS)
Other events that have market-moving potential this week include:
Mon. - JPMorgan Consumer & Retail Holiday Conference
Tue. - CSFB Technology Conference, JPMorgan Consumer & Retail Holiday Conference, Merrill Lynch Health Services Conference, CIBC Best Ideas Conference
Wed. - Merrill Lynch Health Services Conference, CIBC Best Ideas Conference, CSFB Tech Conference
Thur. - AG Edwards Computer Conference, CSFB Tech Conference, Merrill Lynch Med Tech Conference, Citigroup Global Paper Conference
Fri. - CSFB Tech Conference
Economic reports for the week include:
Mon. - Existing Home Sales
Tues. - Durable Goods Orders, Consumer Confidence, New Home Sales
Wed. - Preliminary 32Q GDP, Preliminary 3Q GDP Price Index, Preliminary 3Q Personal Consumption, Chicago Purchasing Manager, Fed’s Beige Book
Thur. - Personal Income, Personal Spending, PCE Deflator, Initial Jobless Claims, Construction Spending, ISM Manufacturing, ISM Prices Paid, Total Vehicle Sales
Fri. - Change in Non-farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
A few of the more noteworthy companies that release quarterly earnings this week are:
Mon. - None of note
Tues. - GameStop Corp.(GME)
Wed. - Chico’s FAS(CHS), Copart(CPRT), Jack in the Box(JBX), McData(MCDTA), Mercury Interactive(MERQE), Synopsys(SNPS), Tiffany & Co.(TIF)
Thur. - Comverse Technology(CMVT), Novell Inc.(NOVL), Omnivision Technology(OVTI)
Fri. - Del Monte(DLM), Dillard’s(DDS)
Other events that have market-moving potential this week include:
Mon. - JPMorgan Consumer & Retail Holiday Conference
Tue. - CSFB Technology Conference, JPMorgan Consumer & Retail Holiday Conference, Merrill Lynch Health Services Conference, CIBC Best Ideas Conference
Wed. - Merrill Lynch Health Services Conference, CIBC Best Ideas Conference, CSFB Tech Conference
Thur. - AG Edwards Computer Conference, CSFB Tech Conference, Merrill Lynch Med Tech Conference, Citigroup Global Paper Conference
Fri. - CSFB Tech Conference
BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week mixed as worries over the housing market and profit-taking offset more optimism over US economic growth, short-covering, moderating inflation fears and a better employment report. Stocks will likely consolidate recent gains in the near-term before mounting another push higher into year-end. My trading indicators are still giving bullish signals and the Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.
Saturday, November 26, 2005
Market Week in Review
S&P 500 1,268.25 +2.05%*
Click here for the Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.
*5-day % Change
Click here for the Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.
BOTTOM LINE: Overall, last week's market performance was positive considering recent gains and holiday-shortened trading. The advance/decline line rose, most sectors gained and volume was about average on the week. Measures of investor anxiety were mixed. The average 30-year mortgage rate declined for the first time in 13 weeks, falling to 6.28%. This is 107 basis points above all-time lows set in June 2003. Mortgage rates will likely head modestly lower over the intermediate-term. Moreover, the benchmark 10-year T-note yield fell 7 basis points on the week as inflation fears continue to diminish and optimism increased for a Fed “pause” after traders viewed the Nov. 1 Fed minutes. Small-caps and cyclicals continued to outperform on increasing optimism over the health of the US economy. The US dollar rose slightly on the week even as increasing expectations of a European Central Bank rate hike and a US Fed “pause” should have pressured the currency. As well, gold rose again on continuing international diversification out of energy and the euro and into the precious metal. In my opinion, the rise in gold is not a result of increasing inflation fears. Unleaded Gas futures continued their recent collapse and are 50% below September highs even as refinery utilization still remains below normal as a result of the hurricanes. Natural gas supplies decreased slightly this week even as a substantial amount of daily Gulf of Mexico production remains shut-in. Natural Gas has now dropped 24% from recent highs. I continue to believe global energy demand destruction and a substantial increase in supplies into 2006 will continue pushing energy prices substantially lower over the intermediate-term. The S&P 500 is closing in on my mid-year prediction of a double-digit gain. The index is currently up 6.4% for the year.
*5-day % Change
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