Sunday, December 11, 2005

Weekly Outlook

There are a number of important economic reports and some significant corporate earnings reports scheduled for release this week.

Economic reports for the week include:

Mon. - Monthly Budget Statement
Tues. - Advance Retail Sales, Business Inventories, FOMC Rate Decision
Wed. - Trade Balance, Import Price Index
Thur. - Initial Jobless Claims, Consumer Price Index, Empire Manufacturing, Net Foreign Security Purchases, Industrial Production, Philly Fed
Fri. - Current Account Balance

A few of the more noteworthy companies that release quarterly earnings this week are:

Mon. - Jacuzzi Brands(JJZ), Telephone & Data Systems(TDS), US Cellular(USM)
Tues. - ADC Telecom(ADCT), CKE Restaurants(CKR), Cooper Companies(COO), Engineered Support(EASI), Lehman Brothers(LEH), Martek Biosciences(MATK)
Wed. - Freddie Mac(FRE), Mercury Interactive(MERQE)
Thur. - Apollo Group(APOL), Bear Stearns(BSC), Best Buy(BBY), Darden Restaurants(DRI), Goldman Sachs(GS), Herman Miller(MLHR), KB Home(KBH), Lennar Corp.(LEN), Oracle Corp.(ORCL), Pier 1 Imports(PIR), Rite Aid(RAD)
Fri. - Carnival Corp.(CCL), Cintas Corp.(CTAS), Family Dollar(FDO), GTECH Holdings(GTK), Quiksilver Inc.(ZQK), Steelcase(SCS), Take-Two Interactive(TTWO)

Other events that have market-moving potential this week include:

Mon. - UBS Server Technologies Conference
Tue. - None of note
Wed. - None of note
Thur. - RBC Silver Conference
Fri. - RBC Silver Conference

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week higher on increasing demand for US assets, less hawkish Fed comments, short-covering, moderating inflation fears and increasing inflows. My trading indicators are still giving bullish signals and the Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Saturday, December 10, 2005

Market Week in Review

S&P 500 1,265.08 -.45%*

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Click here for the Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: Overall, last week's market performance was just slightly negative considering recent gains, the rise in natural gas prices and disappointing comments from Toll Brothers(TOL) and Intel(INTC). The advance/decline line fell, sector performance was mixed and volume was above average on the week. Measures of investor anxiety were mostly lower. However, the AAII % Bulls fell again to 49.47%, slightly above average levels, which is a positive. The average 30-year mortgage rate rose for the first time in three weeks to 6.32%. This is 111 basis points above all-time lows set in June 2003. I continue to believe mortgage rates will head modestly lower over the intermediate-term as measures of inflation decelerate and economic growth slows to average rates. The benchmark 10-year T-note yield rose 1 basis point on the week as unit labor costs(the largest component of inflation) fell more-than-expected in 3Q, offsetting strong economic data.

Small-caps and cyclicals continued to outperform on increasing optimism over the unrelenting strength of the economy, falling only slightly on the week. Gold rose again on continuing international diversification into the precious metal. I still believe the rise in gold is not a result of increasing inflation fears as evidenced by the decline in unit labor costs this week. Unleaded Gas futures were basically unchanged and are 45% below September highs even as refinery utilization still remains below normal as a result of the hurricanes. Natural gas supplies decreased less-than-expected this week and are now 6.9% above the 5-year average for this time of year even as 29% of daily Gulf of Mexico production remains shut-in. I believe a significant top in natural gas occurred last week or will so shortly. Prices for many commodities are now being driven by fear and record capital inflows into commodity funds, rather than fundamentals. I still expect global energy demand destruction and a significant increase in supplies into 2006 to push energy prices substantially lower over the intermediate-term. The S&P 500 is still within striking distance of my mid-year prediction of a double-digit annual gain, but time is running out. The index is currently up 5.75% for the year.

US economic growth has now exceeded 3% for 10 straight quarters, the best streak since March 1986. Moreover, corporate profit growth has reached double-digit rates for 14 quarters in a row, the best run since at least 1936. I want to reiterated the point that quite possibly there has never before in US history been a greater disconnect between economic perception and reality. This disconnect is fueled by the record number of market participants that perceive that they benefit, both politically and financially, from the demise of the US economy. This, in turn, leads to an overwhelmingly negative spin on almost any positive event. Irrational pessimism is pervasive as a recent poll by American Research Group found 43% of Americans believe the US economy is in a recession. The common definition of a recession is 2 consecutive quarters of economic contraction. As this pessimism lifts and optimism comes to the fore, price/earnings multiples for US stocks should expand, thus leading to significant price appreciation over the intermediate-term.

Friday, December 09, 2005

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices
S&P 500 1,265.08 -.45%
DJIA 10,877.51 -.91%
NASDAQ 2,256.73 -.73%
Russell 2000 688.77 -.26%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,615.39 -.40%
S&P Equity Long/Short Index 1,099.76 +1.31%
S&P Barra Growth 602.11 -.64%
S&P Barra Value 652.91 -.27%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 590.77 -.69%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 780.68 -.08%
Morgan Stanley Technology 532.54 -.84%
Transports 4,102.34 -.87%
Utilities 409.82 +1.68%
S&P 500 Cum A/D Line 8,222.00 -5.0%
Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 52.0 +22.09%
Put/Call .80 -5.88%
NYSE Arms 1.02 -17.07%
Volatility(VIX) 11.69 +6.18%
ISE Sentiment 196.00 +26.45%
AAII % Bulls 49.47 -5.72%
US Dollar 91.30 -.70%
CRB 327.81 +1.37%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 59.39 +.15%
Unleaded Gasoline 160.49 +.06%
Natural Gas 14.31 +2.82%
Heating Oil 173.18 -2.16%
Gold 529.50 +3.20%
Base Metals 154.13 +3.25%
Copper 202.90 +1.05%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.52% +.22%
Average 30-year Mortgage Rate 6.32% +.96%

Leading Sectors
Gold & Silver +5.77%
Oil Service +2.86%
Disk Drives +2.17%

Lagging Sectors
Computer Services +1.93%
Homebuilders -2.12%
Oil Tankers -2.76%

One-Week High-Volume Gainers
One-Week High-Volume Losers

*5-Day % Change

Stocks Higher Mid-day as Energy Prices Reverse Lower and Consumer Sentiment Improves

Indices
S&P 500 1,262.24 +.51%
DJIA 10,797.55 +.39%
NASDAQ 2,257.97 +.52%
Russell 2000 689.08 +.56%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,640.89 +.49%
S&P Barra Growth 603.17 +.34%
S&P Barra Value 654.92 +.70%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 592.04 +.41%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 782.78 +.68%
Morgan Stanley Technology 533.33 +.85%
Transports 4,109.82 +.68%
Utilities 410.57 +.98%
Put/Call .81 -18.18%
NYSE Arms 1.05 -9.53%
Volatility(VIX) 11.59 -5.08%
ISE Sentiment 197.00 unch.
US Dollar 91.23 -.03%
CRB 327.39 -.92%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 59.20 -2.41%
Unleaded Gasoline 160.70 -1.08%
Natural Gas 14.34 -4.30%
Heating Oil 172.20 -3.43%
Gold 529.10 +1.22%
Base Metals 154.13 +.77%
Copper 203.00 unch.
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.53% +1.45%

Leading Sectors
Semis +1.71%
HMOs +1.54%
Banks +1.45%

Lagging Sectors
Gold & Silver -1.21%
Airlines -1.30%
Energy -1.37%
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher mid-day on gains in my Medical longs, Internet longs, Semi longs, Energy-related shorts and Retail longs. I have not traded this today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is positive as the advance/decline line is higher, most sectors are higher and volume is about average. Measures of investor anxiety are mostly lower. Overall, today’s market action is positive considering the bounce in long-term rates and declines in energy-related stocks. The ECRI Weekly Leading Index rose to 135.70 this week from 135.50 the prior week. This is still near cycle highs of 135.80 and up from 132.00 during the last week of May. This gauge of future economic activity is forecasting healthy U.S. growth. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close on falling energy prices and rising optimism.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
- Merck, turning to its public health roots, plans to introduce the first cervical cancer vaccine in an attempt to revive its sales.
- French industrial production fell by the most in more than six years in October as output of cars dropped, suggesting Europe’s third-largest economy may be faltering yet again.
- Intel’s sales forecast disappointed investors and signaled the world’s biggest chipmaker may be losing market share to AMD.
- Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Lehman Brothers Holdings and Bear Stearns may report combined fourth-quarter earnings of $4 billion, capping a record year fueled by trading and advising on takeovers.
- Eli Lilly, maker of the top-selling schizophrenia drug Zyprexa, forecast that 2006 earnings per share will rise 63% on expanding sales of its newest products.
- US Treasuries are falling after an industry report showed consumer confidence rose in December more than forecast, capping its biggest two-month gain since 2003.
- Crude oil is falling on signs supplies will be adequate to meet demand for winter as the first cold snap of the season moves through the northern US.

Wall Street Journal:
- The NYSE set a minimum price of almost $50,000 for the right to continue trading on its floor after the exchange concludes its acquisition of electronic-trading company Archipelago Holdings.
- Three Puerto Rican lenders, Doral Financial, R&G Financial, and First BanCorp may soon issue financial restatements, following scrutiny by the SEC.
- Anheuser-Busch has started a campaign to promote the health benefits of drinking beer.
- Virgin Atlantic founder Richard Branson and New Mexico plan to build a $200 million “spaceport” in the desert to prepare for commercial space travel.
- Viacom’s Paramount Pictures unit is preparing to bid for DreamWorks SKG, using mostly money put up by outside investors.
- US oil and drug companies may collide over House and Senate negotiations on the Republican party’s proposed $45 billion deficit-reduction bill.
- Deckers Outdoor, maker of Teva sandals and Ugg boots, will sell more different Ugg models in the hope of turning last year’s footwear fad into a permanent brand.

AP:
- Verizon Communications’ Verizon Wireless said that it has won two lawsuits against telemarketers who made unsolicited sales calls to its customers.

NY Times:
- Alltel has agreed to spin off its fixed-line unit and merge it with Valor Communications in a transaction worth $9.1 billion as it tries to focus on its cellular phone business.

Washington Post:
- French Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin says the timetable for withdrawal of international forces from Iraq should be determined by conditions in the country in order to avoid chaos.

Globe and Mail:
- Research In Motion can avoid losing access to the US market for its BlackBerry e-mail device with a single payment.

Interfax:
- Russia’s government today condemned Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s comments that Europe should host a state of Israel on its soil because of the genocide committed against Jews by the Nazis.

Boersen-Zeitung:
- JPMorgan Chase may make further acquisitions to strengthen its US retail business, citing an interview with the chief economist at JPMorgan.

Consumer Confidence Improves Again, Wholesale Inventory-to-Sales Ratio at Historic Low

- Preliminary Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence for December rose to 88.7 versus estimates of 85.0 and a reading of 81.6 in November.
- Wholesale Inventories for October rose .2% versus estimates of a .5% gain and a .6% increase in September.
BOTTOM LINE: US consumers grew more confident for a second month in December as lower gasoline prices left households with more money to spend during the holiday season. The avg. price gas fell to $2.19 last week from $3.12 right after the hurricanes hit. Moreover, hiring has rebounded back close to pre-hurricane levels and US economic growth has risen 3% or more for 10 straight quarters, the best streak since 1986. The current conditions component of the index, which is a gauge of whether or not consumers feel it is a good time to purchase big-ticket items, rose to 106.6 from 100.2 the prior month. I expect confidence to continue to improve as irrational pessimism lifts, energy prices fall and the US economy remains strong.

Sales at US wholesalers rose 1.2% in October, exceeding a gain in inventories that suggests increased production in coming months as companies try to meet demand, Bloomberg said. The inventory-to-sales ration fell to a historic low of 1.13 months versus a reading of 1.15 months in September. As companies continue to gain confidence in US economic resiliency, inventory rebuilding should help boost economic growth going forward.