Indices
S&P 500 1,266.74 -.99%
DJIA 11,088.03 -1.35%
NASDAQ 2,057.71 -1.31%
Russell 2000 679.04 -3.17%
Wilshire 5000 12,635.11 -1.32%
S&P Barra Growth 585.40 -.53%
S&P Barra Value 679.73 -1.43%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 619.97 -.08%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 771.97 -2.33%
Morgan Stanley Technology 464.55 -.66%
Transports 4,141.62 -5.41%
Utilities 432.96 -.25%
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets 95.47 -.45%
S&P 500 Cum A/D Line 6,108 -8.0%
Bloomberg Oil % Bulls 50.0 +25.0%
CFTC Oil Large Speculative Longs 197,612 +4.0%
Put/Call .92 -21.37%
NYSE Arms 1.16 -20.0%
Volatility(VIX) 14.30 -.28%
ISE Sentiment 112.00 +3.70%
AAII % Bulls 36.59 +16.31%
AAII % Bears 41.46 -12.14%
US Dollar 85.49 +1.08%
CRB 344.53 -1.58%
ECRI Weekly Leading Index 135.50 unch.
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 74.35 -.51%
Unleaded Gasoline 206.43 -7.6%
Natural Gas 7.27 -.01%
Heating Oil 204.06 -2.32%
Gold 642.00 -2.64%
Base Metals 224.87 -2.06%
Copper 348.25 -3.66%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.96% +1.22%
Average 30-year Mortgage Rate 6.55% -1.21%
Leading Sectors
Internet +1.57%
Hospitals +1.36%
Tobacco +.45%
Energy +.27%
Networking +.05%
Lagging Sectors
I-Banks -3.80%
Steel -4.13%
Alternative Energy -4.43%
Homebuilders -6.05%
Airlines -10.25%
One-Week High-Volume Gainers
One-Week High-Volume Losers
*5-Day % Change
Friday, August 11, 2006
Thursday, August 10, 2006
Friday Watch
Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- The US raised its terror alert to the highest level for flights from the UK afer the discovery of a "well-advanced plan" that suggested al-Qaeda was plotting to use liquid explosives and detonators disguised as electronic devices to blow up jetliners in midair, officials said.
- Crude oil traded near its lowest level this month after a foiled terrorist plot to attack airlines raised concern travelers will avoid flying, reducing jet-fuel demand.
- Japan’s economy grew .8%, less than half the pace expected, in the quarter ended June 30 as companies such as Toshiba at into stockpiles to keep up with demand.
- The Bank of Japan kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged as growth in the world's second largest economy cooled more than expected.
- GM(GM), DaimlerChrysler AG and BMW AG are investing more than $1 billion combined on a shared gasoline-electric system for autos that will compete with hybrid leader Toyota Motor(TM).
- Brocade Communications(BRCD) officers and directors agreed to strengthen corporate governance at the software maker and to help pay $525,000 in legal fees to settle shareholder lawsuits over stock-option backdating.
- Evercore Partners, the investment bank co-founded by former Deputy Treasury Secretary Roger Altman, raised $83 million in an IPO as investors bet more companies will turn to independent advisers for help with mergers and acquisitions.
- Harley-Davidson(HDI) is changing its stock symbol to “HOG,” a slang term for large motorcycles the company is famous for making.
- Target Corp.(TGT), JC Penney(JCP) and Kohl’s Corp.(KSS), defying predictions of a slowdown in consumer spending, reported profit that exceeded analysts’ estimates as sales of women’s accessories, clothing and food accelerated.
- Spot prices for alumina have collapsed 56% since March, according the Metal Bulletin. Chinese aluminum exports are likely to rise 100% over the next 12-18 months, according to Morgan Stanley.
NY Times:
- The US Dept. of Homeland Security urged users of Microsoft’s Windows operating system to install a patch that fixes a security flaw in the software.
Financial Times:
- Over 50% of Britons aged between 16 and 24 use social networking Web sites at least once a week.
Financial News:
- Posco may invest in the development of Canada’s oil sands.
AFP:
- British Prime Minister Tony Blair says an agreement on a UN resolution for the Middle East conflict could be reached “within the next 24 hours.”
- Muslims living in the UK will have “a sense of unease” over the fallout on their communities from the arrest of 24 people in connection with a probe into an alleged plot to blow up aircraft bound for the US, citing Inayat Bunglawala, a spokesman for the Muslim Council of Britain. “All right-thinking people must support the police in the intelligence-led actions they take to foil terrorist plots,” Bunglawala said.
Yomiuri:
- Sixty-five percent of Japanese people surveyed said China was “untrustworthy,” while 66% said relations between Japan and China were “bad.”
Star:
- Malaysia’s first shipment of biodiesel will leave for Europe next week. About 60,000 tons of biodiesel processed by Carotino Sdn. will be sent to Germany on Aug. 15.
Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Citigroup:
- Reiterated Buy on (URBN), target $24.
Morgan Stanley:
- Reiterated Overweight on (JCP), target $80.
Business Week:
- Repligen Corp.(RGEN), a drug development company, could win 1% to 2% of ImClone Systems’(IMCL) Erbitux sales, citing Eric Ende of Merrill Lynch.
- Commercial Metals(CMC) is a potential takeover target, citing S&P analyst Leo Larkin.
Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.05%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.23%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- None of note
Upcoming Splits
- (WFC) 2-for-1
- (RAI) 2-for-1
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- The Import Price Index for July is estimated to rise .8% versus a .1% gain in June.
- Advance Retail Sales for July are estimated to rise .9% versus a .1% decline in June.
- Retail Sales Less Autos for July are estimated to rise .5% versus a .3% increase in June.
10:00 am EST
- Business Inventories for June are estimated to rise .5% versus a .8% increase in May.
Bloomberg:
- The US raised its terror alert to the highest level for flights from the UK afer the discovery of a "well-advanced plan" that suggested al-Qaeda was plotting to use liquid explosives and detonators disguised as electronic devices to blow up jetliners in midair, officials said.
- Crude oil traded near its lowest level this month after a foiled terrorist plot to attack airlines raised concern travelers will avoid flying, reducing jet-fuel demand.
- Japan’s economy grew .8%, less than half the pace expected, in the quarter ended June 30 as companies such as Toshiba at into stockpiles to keep up with demand.
- The Bank of Japan kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged as growth in the world's second largest economy cooled more than expected.
- GM(GM), DaimlerChrysler AG and BMW AG are investing more than $1 billion combined on a shared gasoline-electric system for autos that will compete with hybrid leader Toyota Motor(TM).
- Brocade Communications(BRCD) officers and directors agreed to strengthen corporate governance at the software maker and to help pay $525,000 in legal fees to settle shareholder lawsuits over stock-option backdating.
- Evercore Partners, the investment bank co-founded by former Deputy Treasury Secretary Roger Altman, raised $83 million in an IPO as investors bet more companies will turn to independent advisers for help with mergers and acquisitions.
- Harley-Davidson(HDI) is changing its stock symbol to “HOG,” a slang term for large motorcycles the company is famous for making.
- Target Corp.(TGT), JC Penney(JCP) and Kohl’s Corp.(KSS), defying predictions of a slowdown in consumer spending, reported profit that exceeded analysts’ estimates as sales of women’s accessories, clothing and food accelerated.
- Spot prices for alumina have collapsed 56% since March, according the Metal Bulletin. Chinese aluminum exports are likely to rise 100% over the next 12-18 months, according to Morgan Stanley.
NY Times:
- The US Dept. of Homeland Security urged users of Microsoft’s Windows operating system to install a patch that fixes a security flaw in the software.
Financial Times:
- Over 50% of Britons aged between 16 and 24 use social networking Web sites at least once a week.
Financial News:
- Posco may invest in the development of Canada’s oil sands.
AFP:
- British Prime Minister Tony Blair says an agreement on a UN resolution for the Middle East conflict could be reached “within the next 24 hours.”
- Muslims living in the UK will have “a sense of unease” over the fallout on their communities from the arrest of 24 people in connection with a probe into an alleged plot to blow up aircraft bound for the US, citing Inayat Bunglawala, a spokesman for the Muslim Council of Britain. “All right-thinking people must support the police in the intelligence-led actions they take to foil terrorist plots,” Bunglawala said.
Yomiuri:
- Sixty-five percent of Japanese people surveyed said China was “untrustworthy,” while 66% said relations between Japan and China were “bad.”
Star:
- Malaysia’s first shipment of biodiesel will leave for Europe next week. About 60,000 tons of biodiesel processed by Carotino Sdn. will be sent to Germany on Aug. 15.
Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Citigroup:
- Reiterated Buy on (URBN), target $24.
Morgan Stanley:
- Reiterated Overweight on (JCP), target $80.
Business Week:
- Repligen Corp.(RGEN), a drug development company, could win 1% to 2% of ImClone Systems’(IMCL) Erbitux sales, citing Eric Ende of Merrill Lynch.
- Commercial Metals(CMC) is a potential takeover target, citing S&P analyst Leo Larkin.
Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.05%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.23%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- None of note
Upcoming Splits
- (WFC) 2-for-1
- (RAI) 2-for-1
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- The Import Price Index for July is estimated to rise .8% versus a .1% gain in June.
- Advance Retail Sales for July are estimated to rise .9% versus a .1% decline in June.
- Retail Sales Less Autos for July are estimated to rise .5% versus a .3% increase in June.
10:00 am EST
- Business Inventories for June are estimated to rise .5% versus a .8% increase in May.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mixed as gains in technology shares are offsetting losses in commodity stocks in the region. I expect US equities to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.
***Alert***
Posting will be light through the weekend. I will try and post the Friday Watch later this evening. Sorry for the inconvenience.
Wednesday, August 09, 2006
Thursday Watch
Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- BP Plc may keep pumping oil from half of the Prudhoe Bay field, BP America President Robert Malone said.
- Pfizer’s best-selling cholesterol medicine Lipitor cuts the risk of stroke recurrence in patients without heart disease, doctors say.
- David Einhorn, founder of $3 billion hedge fund Greenlight Capital LLC, was knocked out of the World Series of Poker last night, taking 18th place and winning $659,730, which he plans to donate to charity.
- Google(GOOG) will give AOL as much as $400 million over five years under an Internet ad agreement.
- Toyota Motor(TM) is setting US sales records and building North American factories faster than any other automaker.
- South Korea’s central bank unexpectedly raised its key interest rate a quarter percentage point to a five-year high to quell inflation in Asia’s third-largest economy.
- Israeli soldiers and Hezbollah fighters clashed in southern Lebanese villages, as the UN Security Council failed to agree on a revised resolution to end the month-long conflict.
Financial Times:
- France may propose its own cease-fire plan to the UN Security Council if terms are not reached with the US on an agreement to end the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah fighters, citing President Jacques Chirac.
Economic Daily News:
- AU Optronics(AUO) won orders from Samsung Electronics and four others to make LCDs for televisions.
Digitimes:
- Samsung Electronics has begun shifting manufacturing capacity to make more flash memory chips in anticipation of orders from Apple Computer(AAPL).
China Securities Journal:
- China’s banking regulator told the nation’s 16 major banks to slow their loan growth in the second half and rein in their overall lending increase to below 15% this year.
- China may raise lending rates for the second time this year to control loans growth.
China Business News:
- China’s government may stop issuing bonds to finance infrastructure projects early next year, citing Li Quan, an academic at the finance ministry.
Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
- None of note
Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.25% to unch. on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.06%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.03%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (ADI)/.44
- (BGG)/.29
- (EAT)/.65
- (CREE)/.14
- (DISH)/.44
- (ELX)/.22
- (EXPE)/.24
- (GG)/.35
- (JCP/.73
- (KSS)/.65
- (NVDA)/.27
- (PSUN)/.14
- (PGN)/.41
- (RRGB)/.39
- (TGT)/.69
- (URBN)/.15
Upcoming Splits
- (PCAR) 3-for-2
- (WFC) 2-for-1
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- The Trade Deficit for June is estimated to widen to -$64.5 billion versus -$63.8 billion in May.
- Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated at 315K versus 315K the prior week.
- Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 2475K versus 2480K prior.
2:00 pm EST
- The Monthly Budget Deficit for July is estimated to shrink to -$40.0 billion versus -$53.4 billion in June.
Bloomberg:
- BP Plc may keep pumping oil from half of the Prudhoe Bay field, BP America President Robert Malone said.
- Pfizer’s best-selling cholesterol medicine Lipitor cuts the risk of stroke recurrence in patients without heart disease, doctors say.
- David Einhorn, founder of $3 billion hedge fund Greenlight Capital LLC, was knocked out of the World Series of Poker last night, taking 18th place and winning $659,730, which he plans to donate to charity.
- Google(GOOG) will give AOL as much as $400 million over five years under an Internet ad agreement.
- Toyota Motor(TM) is setting US sales records and building North American factories faster than any other automaker.
- South Korea’s central bank unexpectedly raised its key interest rate a quarter percentage point to a five-year high to quell inflation in Asia’s third-largest economy.
- Israeli soldiers and Hezbollah fighters clashed in southern Lebanese villages, as the UN Security Council failed to agree on a revised resolution to end the month-long conflict.
Financial Times:
- France may propose its own cease-fire plan to the UN Security Council if terms are not reached with the US on an agreement to end the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah fighters, citing President Jacques Chirac.
Economic Daily News:
- AU Optronics(AUO) won orders from Samsung Electronics and four others to make LCDs for televisions.
Digitimes:
- Samsung Electronics has begun shifting manufacturing capacity to make more flash memory chips in anticipation of orders from Apple Computer(AAPL).
China Securities Journal:
- China’s banking regulator told the nation’s 16 major banks to slow their loan growth in the second half and rein in their overall lending increase to below 15% this year.
- China may raise lending rates for the second time this year to control loans growth.
China Business News:
- China’s government may stop issuing bonds to finance infrastructure projects early next year, citing Li Quan, an academic at the finance ministry.
Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
- None of note
Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.25% to unch. on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.06%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.03%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (ADI)/.44
- (BGG)/.29
- (EAT)/.65
- (CREE)/.14
- (DISH)/.44
- (ELX)/.22
- (EXPE)/.24
- (GG)/.35
- (JCP/.73
- (KSS)/.65
- (NVDA)/.27
- (PSUN)/.14
- (PGN)/.41
- (RRGB)/.39
- (TGT)/.69
- (URBN)/.15
Upcoming Splits
- (PCAR) 3-for-2
- (WFC) 2-for-1
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- The Trade Deficit for June is estimated to widen to -$64.5 billion versus -$63.8 billion in May.
- Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated at 315K versus 315K the prior week.
- Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 2475K versus 2480K prior.
2:00 pm EST
- The Monthly Budget Deficit for July is estimated to shrink to -$40.0 billion versus -$53.4 billion in June.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, pressured by exporting stocks in the region. I expect US equities to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.
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