Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Economic Data, Profit-taking

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is lower into the final hour on losses in my Computer longs, Semi longs and Retail longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The overall tone of the market is negative today as the advance/decline line is lower, almost every sector is declining and volume is about average. My intraday gauge of investor angst is at elevated levels. The 10-year yield is falling 8 basis points, to 4.47%, on today’s economic reports. Below 4.5% is the level I pointed out several months ago that would likely have to be breached to dramatically increase the odds of a Fed rate cut. This, combined with today's economic data, and Friday's likely weaker-than-expected employment report should give the Fed the freedom to cut the Fed Funds rate 25 basis points at the upcoming meeting. The OECD said today that U.S., European and Japanese economic growth is less buoyant and more uncertain. I continue to believe global economic growth is in the process of decelerating from booming levels to more average rates, which will continue to spur growth stock outperformance for several years, in my opinion. Apple's stock is selling off on today’s news of new iPods and a price cut for the iPhone. However, everything is falling into place for the stock to move substantially higher during fourth quarter as earnings exceed even optimistic estimates and growth stock multiple expansion gains steam. I still see $180/share as likely before year-end. Goldman Sachs is also defending the shares, saying to buy on weakness. I expect US stocks to trade mixed into the close from current levels as short-covering offsets profit-taking.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
- BHP Billiton Ltd.(BHP) may spend $80 billion on expansion over the next decade, citing Marius Kloppers, who becomes the company’s CEO next month.
- Global Advisors LP, the commodities hedge fund firm co-founded by former JPMorgan Chase(JPM) energy trader Daniel Masters, is shutting two of its three funds after losses in all commodity markets this year.
- The Federal Reserve found the effects of the August credit-market rout on the broader economy to be “limited” beyond the housing industry, according to its regional business survey.
- Apple Inc.(AAPL) unveiled new versions of its best-selling iPod media player with touch screens and video games, giving CEO Jobs new gadgets to entice buyers during the holiday shopping season.
- Apple today announced that it is on track to sell its one millionth iPhone before the end of September, and to make iPhone affordable for even more customers this holiday season, it is lowering the price of the most popular iPhone model with 8GB of storage from $599 to just $399.
- Police arrested three men suspected of planning “massive” terrorist attacks on US and other targets in Germany, preventing the deaths of “many, many people,” Chief Federal Prosecutor Monika Harms said.

Wall Street Journal:
- Scholars Link Success of Firms To Lives of CEOs.
- Citigroup Inc.(C) is refitting its vast portfolio of buildings so they use energy more efficiently.

USA Today:
- State and local governments are in the middle of a building boom that has helped keep the economy afloat and offset job losses from the decline in home construction.

AP:
- Democratic fundraiser Norman Hsu failed to appear for a bail hearing today in Redwood City, California, and his lawyer said he doesn’t know where Hsu is.

Interfax:
- China’s sugar production may rise 17% to a record 14 million tons next season, citing the country’s Ministry of Agriculture Web Site.

Pending Home Sales Fall

- Pending Home Sales for July fell 12.2% versus estimates of a 2.2% decline and a 5.0% increase in June.

BOTTOM LINE: The number of Americans signing contracts to buy previously owned homes fell in July, Bloomberg reported. Lawrence Yun, a senior economist with the Realtors’ group said there were signs the market had been “stabilizing somewhat” since mid August and that there were no serious problems for the majority of buyers who qualify for conventional financing. Pending resales fell 21% in the West, 13% in the Midwest, 12% in the Northeast and 6.6% in the South. I expect August to be somewhat better, but still lower. Pending resales should see a sharp bounce higher this month.

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Wednesday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Jeffrey Lacker told Reuters he would support a cut in interest rates if financial turmoil led to a slowing in economic growth and inflation, while cautioning that outcome is “unclear.”
- Credit Suisse Group analyst Susan Roth Katzke lifted her estimates for Goldman Sachs Group’s(GS) third-quarter and full-year profit because she expects gains in fixed-income trading to more than offset losses on loans. She reiterated her Outperform rating and $250-$275 target.
- Asian stocks rose to a four-week high after Deutsche Bank said financial markets are stabilizing and a report showed global chip sales are climbing.
- Hedge funds in the US might leave the country if subjected to burdensome regulation, according to research by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Mattel Inc.(MAT) recalled about 848,000 Chinese-made Barbie and Fisher-Price products whose paint may contain excessive levels of lead, its third recall in the past five weeks.
- The yen fell for a fourth day against the Australian dollar as a rally in global stocks gave traders confidence to resume buying higher-yielding investments funded by loans in Japan.
- Australia’s central bank kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at an 11-year high as Governor Glenn Stevens waits to see if an increase last month is enough to curb inflation.
- Palm Inc.(PALM) canceled plans to sell a portable computer as the company refocuses on mobile phones.

Wall Street Journal:
- Microsoft Corp.(MSFT) failed to make its Office software file format an international standard, losing a closely watched vote that reflects the software titan’s broader battles in Europe and around the world.

MarketWatch.com:
- Market-timing editors more bearish, which is a bullish sign.

Financial Times:
- Two competing efforts at creating benchmark futures contracts on Middle East crude oil have attracted limited investor interest, citing traders. Trading volume in the contracts fell in August and may not recover notably after the summer holiday period.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Citigroup:
- Rated (DPZ) Buy, target $22.
- Reiterated Buy on (OI), target $48.
- Small-cap/Mid-cap banks derive 70%-80% of revenue from net interest income, and have low exposure to consumer lending and minimal exposure to non-traditional residential mortgage. With expected Fed rate cuts and wider spreads/fewer refis on CRE loans, plus higher losses in consumer lending, this should result in better credit quality and EPS growth than expected.
- Day 1 of the Tech Conference featured 3 electronics manufacturing services companies. Notebook demand appears strong, distribution inventory levels appear lean and EMS inventory levels are recently better aligned. Wednesday presenting companies include (PLXS), (SANM), (AVT), (FLEX), (CLS), (APH) and (ARW). Thursday presenting companies include (MOLX), (VSH) and (AVX).
- Upgraded (VCLK) to Buy, target $25.

CSFB:
- (ISIL) pre-announced upside to C3Q guidance. This is another data point supporting PC strength. While the company attributed the positive announcement to broad-based growth, we believe that strength is being primarily driven by the computing segment(25% of total sales), specifically new platform roll-outs at Intel(INTC). This is consistent with our view that the current robust PC market will provide a positive tailwind in 2H07 for semiconductor companies with exposure to the computing end market. In addition to (INTC) and (AMD) on the MPU side, analog companies within our coverage universe that will likewise benefit include (TXN), (MXIM), (ONNN), (FCS) and (MCRL).

Night Trading
Asian Indices are +.25% to +.50% on average.
S&P 500 futures -.30%.
NASDAQ 100 futures -.15%.

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Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (ABM)/.31
- (ADCT)/.23
- (CASY)/.47
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- (MATK)/.18
- (SCMR)/.03

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Economic Releases
10:00 am EST
- Pending Home Sales for July are estimated to fall 2.0% versus a 5.0% gain in June.

2:00 pm EST
- The Fed’s Beige Book Report.

Other Potential Market Movers
- The Keefe Bruyette & Woods Insurance Conference, Thomas Weisel Healthcare Conference, CSFB Biotech Conference, Kaufman Brothers Investor Conference, Citigroup Tech Conference, Lehman Brothers Energy Conference, Goldman Sachs Global Retailing Conference, the Lehman Brothers Consumer Conference, weekly retail sales reports, weekly MBA mortgage applications report, Challenger Job Cuts, ADP Employment Change, BOE policy meeting, (DHR) analyst meeting, (USB) investor day, (JAVA) analyst meeting and (CSCO) analyst meeting could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and financial stocks in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Finish Near Session Highs, Boosted by Tech, Financial and Energy Shares

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