Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:   

• Ukrainian Casualties Test Cease-Fire as Gas Threat Looms Large. Casualties among Ukraine’s army tempered optimism about a cease-fire holding as the authorities in Kiev grappled with simultaneous threats to the country’s finances and energy supplies. While the situation in the conflict zone was “relatively calm” during the night with only sporadic cease-fire violations, three government troops still died in 24 hours, Ukrainian officials said on Friday. The U.S. is considering whether to shut one or more Russian banks out of the world financial system if pro-Russian rebels continue to violate the cease-fire, two Obama administration officials said.
• Russian Sanctions Seen Entrenched as EU, U.S. Keep Pressure. The European Union will probably overcome internal divisions and extend economic sanctions against Russia that expire in July even as the conflict in eastern Ukraine shows signs of abating, according to a survey of economists. The punitive measures will remain in place, according to 13 of 24 respondents surveyed by Bloomberg. Analysts are evenly split over whether initial violations of a cease-fire negotiated in Belarus this month may trigger new and tighter curbs. The EU’s next planned leaders’ summits, which may include a debate on Russian sanctions, are on March 19-20 and June 25-26.  
• Islamic State Completes Takeover of Town Near Base Used by U.S. Islamic State fighters have completed their takeover of the town of Al-Baghdadi in western Iraq, increasing the threat to a nearby airbase where U.S. advisers are stationed, a local official said. The Iraq army unit protecting a residential compound in Al-Baghdadi, the military’s last position in the town, pulled out late on Thursday, Faleh al-Issawi, deputy chief of Anbar provincial council, said by phone. A group of Islamic State fighters entered, and efforts to dislodge them, including airstrikes by the U.S.-led coalition, have failed, he said.  
• European Stocks Climb Amid Airbus Earnings, U.S. Confidence Data. European stocks advanced, extending their highest level since 2007, amid better-than-expected financial results from companies including Airbus Group NV, and U.S. consumer sentiment data. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 0.4 percent to 392.21 at the close of trading. Shares earlier fell as much as 0.3 percent, before advancing as a report showed the University of Michigan final index of sentiment fell this month less than analysts estimated.
• U.S. Oil Discount Poised for Record Widening as Supplies Surge. (video) U.S. crude’s discount to European prices headed for a record widening in dollar terms this month as lower prices failed to curb the nation’s highest oil output in more than three decades. West Texas Intermediate traded for $12.32 a barrel less than Brent, the North Sea benchmark, as supplies expand at the U.S. storage hub in Cushing, Oklahoma. The spread expanded by $7.57 a barrel this month. U.S. crude stockpiles and output rose to the highest level in weekly data that started in the early 1980s. 
• Nathan’s Brings Hot Dogs to Junk-Bond Market as Risk Returns. Nathan’s Famous Inc., the fast-food chain that started as a Coney Island hot dog stand in 1916, is tapping the junk-bond market for the first time, raising money for a shareholder payout just as debt investors regain their appetites for risk. The company plans to sell $125 million in five-year debt and will use $116 million of the proceeds for a dividend, it said Friday in a statement. Moody’s Investors Service gave the debt its seventh-lowest speculative-grade rating, citing weak protections for investors and “very modest” revenue and earnings from the fast-food chain. Investors are shifting cash back into the riskiest, and highest-paying, corporate debt as an oil-price plunge stabilizes and unprecedented stimulus from central banks around the world suppress yields. Nathan’s may need to pay as much as 10.25 percent on its debt, according to a person with knowledge of the offering. “Whenever you see a company come to market to finance a dividend, and not very cheaply, it raises questions about if its really the best use of the cash,” Jody Lurie, a Philadelphia-based analyst at Janney Montgomery Scott, which manages $61 billion in assets, said in a telephone interview.

ZeroHedge: 

• Here Is What Americans Spent Their "Gas Savings" On. (graph)
• China Just Sided With Russia Over The Ukraine Conflict.
• Stocks Head For Best Month Since Oct 2011 As US Macro Crashes To 12-Month Lows. (graph)
• Live, From Athens, It's Anti-Government Protest Live. (video)
• As IMF Default Looms & Tax Revenues Plunge, Greek Stocks & Bonds Tumble. (graph)
• Steen Jakobsen Warns Of Looming US Slowdown, "I'm Long Gold... And Adding". (graph)
• Pending Home Sales Miss For 5th Month In A Row. (graph)
• UMich Consumer Sentiment Tumbles Most In 16 Months. (graph)
• Chicago PMI Crashes Most Since Lehman To Lowest Since July 2009. (graph)
• Q4 GDP Revised Down To 2.2% From 5.0%: Full Breakdown. (graph)

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -.31%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Biotech -1.10% 2) Airlines -1.05% 3) Alt Energy -.88%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• QTWO, WTW, TUBE, SPLK, PEGA, RESN, ENOC, NMBL, PBPB, MDRX, ECPG, TPC, ENV, IM, UIL, HMSY, PODD, PRAA, KOP, BKS, HLF, WLH, MENT, VTAE, NOW, PGTI, WLH, CST, ACOR, ZLTQ, OLED, ENV, HEES, IM, KBR and TUBE

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) WTW 2) ARCP 3) SPLK 4) HLF 5) SLCA

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) PBPB 2) WAC 3) LUV 4) CLI 5) ANTM
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume

• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value +.02%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver +2.11% 2) Coal +1.96% 3) Oil Service +1.68%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• ABTL, EYES, AIRM, DGI, MNST, BLOX, HZNP, ARUN, CYBX, ADSK, ROST, KND, MTZ, DRQ, SEMG, HAWK, CYBX, BPT, DFRG and AMSG

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) HZNP 2) MNST 3) SPLK 4) ARN 5) ADBE
  

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) FDX 2) GPS 3) ROST 4) SHLD 5) DGI
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 

• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg:  

• Islamic State Says It Destroyed Ancient Relics in Mosul Museum. Islamist militants used sledgehammers and drills to smash ancient artifacts and statues in Iraq’s northern city of Mosul, saying the relics were against the teachings of Islam, according to a video by Islamic State. The five-minute video, posted on websites used by the jihadist group, shows several bearded men inside what’s identified as the Mosul Museum, breaking up large sculptures. In another scene, a man drills through the statue of a winged bull, an Assyrian protective deity, that was almost 3,000 years old. 
• Easy Money Outweighs Fed to Fuel Record Debt Flows to Asia Haven. This year was tipped to be the one when U.S. interest-rate increases would suck money from emerging markets. It’s not turning out that way in Asia. Unprecedented economic stimulus from Europe to Japan has prompted investors to pump a combined $14.4 billion into Indian, South Korean and Indonesian local-currency government debt this year, the most on record for the three markets, exchange data show. That’s helped cut the average yield on emerging-market sovereign notes in Asia by 21 basis points to 4.19 percent, compared with the 4.72 percent for developing nations globally.  
• Asian Stocks Head for Biggest Monthly Gain Since September 2013. Most Asian stocks rose, with the regional benchmark’s poised for its biggest monthly advance since September 2013, as health-care and consumer shares climbed. About three shares rose for every two that fell on the MSCI Asia Pacific Index, while added less than 0.1 percent to 146.35 as of 9:07 a.m. in Tokyo. The gauge is on track for a 4.3 percent gain this month and a 0.9 percent weekly advance after Greece and its creditors this week brokered a deal to extend bailout funding for four months and Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen damped concerns of an imminent rate increase.
• Oil Sails From Russia to Asia Faster on Smaller Ships. With supertankers booked solid carrying cheap crude, smaller vessels are taking advantage of the opportunity by hauling record volumes of Russian oil to Asia. 
• Gold Heads for Weekly Climb on Signs China Demand Increasing. Gold headed for its first weekly advance in more than a month on signs demand in China is picking up and as investors assess the outlook for U.S. interest rates. Bullion for immediate delivery added as much as 0.2 percent to $1,211.76 an ounce and traded at $1,210.20 at 10:13 a.m. in Singapore, according to Bloomberg generic pricing. Gold is up 0.7 percent this week, the first gain since the period to Jan. 23. Prices are set to drop 5.7 percent in February.  
• Aluminum Premiums in Europe Decline by Most in at Least 17 Years. The premium aluminum buyers in Europe pay to obtain the metal had the sharpest three-month drop in at least 17 years, according to researcher Harbor Aluminum. The fee added to London Metal Exchange prices dropped to $300 a metric ton as of Thursday, with some “distressed” selling at as low as $250 a ton, according to Jorge Vazquez, managing director at Harbor Aluminum in Austin, Texas. That’s down from $425 to $445 on Nov. 25, and the sharpest three-month drop since the data begins in 1998, Vazquez said.  
• Goldman(GS) Sells Record Default-Swap-Tied Note as Risky Bets Revive. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. sold its largest note ever tied to an index of credit-default swaps on high-yield bonds earlier this month, as investors go coupon-hunting in risky debt. On Feb. 18, the investment bank issued 30 million Swiss francs ($31.6 million) of five-year securities linked to the Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover Series 22 Index, its biggest such deal since Bloomberg began collecting the data in 2000. Sales of notes tied to the Crossover index, which tracks 75 European companies with an average rating five levels below investment grade, more than doubled to $171.6 million in February from the same period last month.

Wall Street Journal:

• Presidential Hopefuls Court the GOP Base. Republican presidential aspirants tout their conservative credentials at annual CPAC event. For conservative Republicans, the most wide-open presidential contest in decades has created a wealth of contenders, a field of would-be candidates eager to tout their credentials in pushing the GOP to the political right. Many of them began making their appeals Thursday at the annual gathering of the Conservative Political Action Conference that has become a landmark on the campaign calendar.
• Wealthy Jeb Bush Supporter Aims to Push Him to Combat Climate Change. As Jeb Bush wins support from donors who favor moderate positions on social issues such as gay marriage, the potential 2016 Republican presidential candidate is also getting pushed on the environment and climate change. At least one wealthy Republican donor who supports Mr. Bush, Andrew Sabin, aims to push the former Florida governor to adopt a platform that would take steps to combat climate change and environmental degradation if elected president.
• Biggest U.S. Health Insurer Tightens Rules on Hysterectomy Coverage. UnitedHealth(UNH) to require doctors to get authorization before performing most types of procedure; decision marks another blow to laparoscopic power morcellator, which can spread hidden cancer.
• Resale Prices Tumble on Electric Cars. Tax credits on new models, worries about battery life undercut efforts to peddle used Nissan Leaf. Nissan Motor Co. ’s Leaf electric car has been a big seller for Atlanta car dealer Pat Hoban over the past three years, thanks to its low monthly lease price. But as those car leases are beginning to expire amid cheap gasoline, the vehicle is becoming a bit of a headache.
• Welcome to the Obamanet. The FCC snatches political control over more of the economy.
  
  The Federal Communications Commission’s decision Thursday to regulate the Internet as a public utility is a depressing moment for American innovation and economic liberty. The FCC is grabbing political control over a vibrant market that until now has been driven by inventors and consumers. 

Fox News:

• Intel chief says 2014 deadliest year for terror ever recorded, in counter to upbeat Kerry. The top U.S. intelligence official on Thursday gave a drastically different assessment than Secretary of State John Kerry of the terror threat -- declaring 2014 the deadliest year for global terrorism ever recorded, after Kerry claimed that threat was diminishing. Director of National Intelligence James Clapper, testifying on Capitol Hill, catalogued the growing terror-fueled violence in stark terms.

MarketWatch.com:

• There’s more to oil’s Thursday plunge than record-high supplies.

Zero Hedge:

• Greece Warns It May Default On IMF Loan Next Week.
• Greenspan: "The Stock Market Is Great", But The Economy Feels Like In "The Late Stages Of The Great Depression".
• Crude Carnage Sends Stocks Lower Despite Last-Hour Buying-Panic. (graph)
• EU Fixed? Spanish Credit Risk Up 30% Since Greek Elections. (graph)
• 3 Things - High Yield Warning, Yellen's Employment & Economy.
• ECB Warns UK: Excluding Russia From SWIFT "Could Undermine Confidence In The Whole System".
• 2 Years Of Abenomics Later: Joblessness Jumps As Retail & Household Spending Slump. (graph)
• Meet Londoner Mohammed Emwazi - ISIS Chief Executioner 'Jihadi John'.
• Gas Prices Hit 2-Month Highs, Rise At Fastest In a Decade. (graph)

Business Insider:

• Japan's Shinzo Abe doesn't know what to say in what may be his most important statement of the year.
• North Korea's nuclear weapons program is booming.
• Greek protesters have been throwing fire bombs in anti-government riots.
• Hedge manager sues the US government over a 'reckless' raid that shut down his $4 billion firm.
• Russia is bent on 'creeping annexation' of its neighbors.
• Chinese banks loaned $22 billion to prop up Latin American countries amid the oil crash.

Reuters:

• J.C. Penney(JCP) shares tumble after surprise miss on profit. Shares of department store chain J.C. Penney Co Inc tumbled 12 percent in after-hours trade on Thursday after it posted a surprise quarterly loss and forecast small margin improvements this year. J.C. Penney said sales at stores open more than a year rose 4.4 percent in the holiday quarter, the high end of its guidance for 3.5 to 4.5 percent growth, driven by demand for men's apparel, jewelery, and home goods.
• Investors tell hedge funds they want lower fees -survey. Institutional investors are sending a strong message to hedge funds after last year's largely lackluster returns: charge us less and perform better. Nearly one quarter of 134 investors polled by Preqin Ltd said fees would be a key issue in 2015, the research group wrote in its first-half outlook, released on Thursday.

Rheinische Post:

• EU's Schulz Criticizes Greek Call for Debt Cut. Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis undermines trust by calling into question agreements made with European counterparts only few days ago and coming up with new demands, EU Parliament President Martin Schulz says in an interview.

ekathimerini:

• Greek Gov’t raises concern over payment to IMF in March. The Euro Working Group discussed Greece’s imminent funding problems on Thursday amid mounting concern about how the country will meet its obligations next months. Earlier in the day, Minister of State for Coordinating Government Operations Alekos Flambouraris suggested that Greece might delay payment to the International Monetary Fund if it cannot find the necessary money.

Evening Recommendations 

• None of note

Night Trading

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.50% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 100.0 -.75 basis point.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 61.0 -2.75 basis points.

• S&P 500 futures -.15%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.10%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (GDP)/-.45
• (RDC)/.89
•  (ISIS)/.04

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST 

• 4Q GDP is estimated to rise +2.0% versus a prior estimate of a +2.6% gain.
• 4Q Personal Consumption is estimated to rise +4.3% versus a prior estimate of a +4.3% gain.
• 4Q GDP Price Index is estimated unch. versus a prior estimate of unch.
• 4Q Core PCE is estimated to rise +1.1% versus a prior estimate of a +1.1% gain.

9:00 am EST

• ISM Milwaukee for February is estimated to rise to 54.0 versus 51.60 in January.

9:45 am EST

• Chicago Purchasing Manager for February is estimated to fall to 58.0 versus 59.4 in January.

10:00 am EST

• Pending Home Sales for January are estimated to rise +2.0% versus a -3.7% decline in December.
• Final Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment for February is estimated to rise to 94.0 versus a 93.6 prior estimate. 
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Mester speaking, UK GDP report, (WFM) investor conference, (ETN) analyst conference and the (G) analyst day could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Earnings Concerns, Oil Decline, Profit-Taking, Commodity/Road & Rail Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: About Even
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 14.26 +2.96%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 139.64 -1.0%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.75 +.41%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 60.36 -.35%

• ISE Sentiment Index 9164.0 +86.36%

• Total Put/Call 1.03 +3.0%

• NYSE Arms 1.52 +48.21% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 61.86 +.22%
• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 648.0 -1.80%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 53.95 -5.06%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 22.68 -2.28%
• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 60.65 -4.0%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 377.14 -.54%

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 114.27 +.09%
• 2-Year Swap Spread 24.5 -.25 basis point

• TED Spread 24.75 unch.

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -20.75 -1.0 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .02% unch.

• Yield Curve 137.0 +1.0 basis point

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $62.37/Metric Tonne -.91%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -41.80 -5.3 points
• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 49.90 -.7 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -7.0 +.3 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.80 +6.0 basis points

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating +55 open in Japan

• DAX Futures: Indicating -15 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my biotech/tecch sector longs 

• Disclosed Trades: None

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:  

• Merkel Tested by Dissent on Greek Bailout in Her Party. Chancellor Angela Merkel faces increased dissent within her governing coalition over extending Greece’s bailout as part of her goal of keeping the euro area intact. While senior lawmakers say almost all of Merkel’s Christian Democratic bloc will back the four-month reprieve for Greece in a lower-house vote on Friday, 22 of the 311 caucus members opposed the measure in a straw poll Thursday, nine more than voted against passage of Greece’s second bailout in 2012.  
• Merkel’s Truths Lead Greece to Unavoidable Deal on Euro Bailout. (video) It took a few simple truths from Germany’s Angela Merkel on the basics of euro-area crisis management to pacify the combative new government in Athens. The chancellor explained to Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras what an aide in her office called reality. There wasn’t much time to reach the deal needed to keep Greece afloat and Germany wasn’t going to budge, Merkel told him in a 50-minute phone conversation on Feb. 19. It was their first substantive exchange since he’d won election Jan. 25.  
• Ukraine Says Truce Takes Hold as Army Begins Weapons Pullback. Ukraine signaled the latest attempt at peace in its easternmost regions is taking hold and said the military would start withdrawing heavy weapons from the front lines. There were no cease-fire breaches after 12:45 a.m. local time, the military said Thursday, before announcing the arms removal. While Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov accused the U.S. and Europe of seeking to derail dialogue, he said the peace deal was showing tangible results and there are no “ideal truces.” The rebels said some fighting continues.
• European Stocks Extend 2007 High as Bayer, GDF Gain on Earnings. European stocks climbed to the highest level since July 2007 as Bayer AG and GDF Suez SA rose after reporting earnings. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index advanced 1 percent to 390.69 at the close of trading, the biggest gain in more than a month.
• Major Firms Are Saying the Stage Is Set For Another Crisis In The Bond Market. The stage is set for another financial crisis to unravel years of relative calm in debt markets. At least that’s how firms from UBS Group AG to Invesco Ltd. see it. Here’s why: Prices in the world’s biggest bond market are swinging and the plunge in oil is sinking the economies of nations from Venezuela to Nigeria. To top all that off, the fundamental structure of the bond market has changed in a way that makes it difficult for regulators to gauge exactly where risks are building. As stresses grow, “we believe the probability of an ‘accident’ increases,” Invesco analysts including Rob Waldner wrote in the $786.5 billion manager’s February fixed-income outlook. “The overall environment for risky assets, and particularly for credit, is deteriorating.”
• Consumer Comfort Falls to 2015 Low as View of U.S. Economy Dims. Consumer sentiment retreated last week to the lowest level of the year as Americans’ views of the economy and their finances dimmed. The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index fell to 42.7 in the period ended Feb. 22 from 44.6 a week earlier. The 1.9-point decline was the biggest since May 2014. A gauge of the current state of the economy slumped by the most in almost four years. Confidence has deteriorated in three of the last four weeks as gasoline prices started climbing from the lowest level since 2009. Sentiment is also being restrained by what Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen this week called “sluggish” wage growth, even as the labor market continues to improve.

ZeroHedge:

• FCC Votes In Favor Of Obama's Net Neutrality - Has The Slippery Slope To Web Censorship Begun? 
• "Faith In Fed Abilities" Are Too Firmly Embedded In The Investor Class.
• Amid Probe, NY Governor Cuomo Orders Mass Deletion Of Government Emails.
• Greece Suffers Biggest Bank Run In History: January Deposits Plunge To 2005 Levels. (graph)
• Capital Goods Shipments Tumble, 6th Miss In A Row. (graph)
• US Posts First Negative Inflation Print Since Lehman On Gas Price Plunge. (graph)
• Initial Jobless Claims Surge Most Since 2013. (graph)

Business Insider: 

• The most exciting things you'll be able to do with the Apple Watch.
• Oil is getting slammed.

Telegraph: 

• Opec veteran warns cartel emergency meeting won't stop rout in prices. Qatar's former finance minister says the traditional oil producing countries will struggle to halt the fall in prices. 
• Germans say 'Nein!' to Greek bail-out deal. “No more billions for greedy Greeks,” Germany’s biggest-selling mass-market newspaper has said.

Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung:

• Greek Bailout May Be Bigger Than Expected, Says EU's Oettinger. Greece's 2015 budget to be burdened by election and following insecurity, EU Commissioner Guenther Oettinger says in interview. Greece must not abandon reforms and shift focus to fighting tax evasion and corruption as fiscal effects unclear. France needs to present proposals by May to reduce budget deficit to prevent tougher stance by EU including possible sanctions, Oettinger says.