Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +11.3% Above 100-Day Average
• 6 Sectors Rising, 4 Sectors Declining
• 47.6% of Issues Advancing, 47.1% Declining
• 82 New 52-Week Highs, 49 New Lows
• 45.4% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 37.0%
• Vix 10.1 -3.0%
• Total Put/Call .47 -47.8%
• TRIN/Arms .95 -12.9%

Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 87.0 -1.0 basis point. 

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 18.25 -.5 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 73.24 -.04%.

• S&P 500 futures -.04%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.03%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (SJM)/1.72

• (PAY)/.29

• (MTN)/4.88

Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

• Initial Jobless Claims are estimated to fall to 240K versus 248K the prior week.

• Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 1920K versus 115K prior.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The UK Snap Election results, James Comey testimony to Senate Intel Committee, ECB Press Conference, China Trade Balance report, 1Q Household Change in Net Worth, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, (BABA) investor day and the Citi SMid-Cap Conference could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by financial and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Modestly Higher into Final Hour on Diminishing Political Concerns, Yen Weakness, Technical Buying, Financial/Transport Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 10.47 +.29%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 129.04 +.19%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.15 +.49%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 41.11 +.54%

• ISE Sentiment Index 65.0 -20.7%
  

• Total Put/Call .92 +19.48%

• NYSE Arms 1.26 +46.43%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 61.0 +.83%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 397.0 +2.17%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 68.95 -3.55%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 8.26 -1.02%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 18.37 -1.53%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 194.64 +1.73%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 138.76 +.03%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 20.75 unch.

• TED Spread 23.25 -2.0 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -32.25 -.75 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 73.24 -.33%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .99% +2.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve 86.0 +1.0 basis point
  

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $55.43/Metric Tonne -1.07%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -42.40 -.6 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 39.0 -3.8 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 8.90 -1.2 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.80 unch.
  
• 95.8% chance of Fed rate hike at July 26 meeting, 96.8% chance at Sept. 20 meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +36 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -52 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +11 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Higher: On gains in my retail/tech/medical sector longs 

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges

• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value -.1%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Oil Service -4.9% 2) Energy -1.9% 3) Gold & Silver -1.5%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• DLTH, AMBA, SEMG, IDT, EXAS, AEL and CBI

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) CTSH 2) NTNX 3) JNJ 4) WLL 5) RCII

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) SPWR 2) AEL 3) UNFI 4) HDS 5) JAG

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.3%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) HMOs +1.6% 2) Airlines +1.3% 3) Banks +1.2%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• HOME, PLAY, HQY, CALA, KITE, SBH, APPN, BLUE, MYE, EDU, COT, AGII, BZUN, ERI, GIII, KIM, ATHM, FRAN, HA, RTEC, PTCT, YY, SYF, EDIT, SINA, HQY and AMD

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) PE 2) MBI 3) AMBA 4) XLF 5) SPLS

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) PLAY 2) NVAX 3) HA 4) CVNA 5) JAZZ

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -6.2% Below 100-Day Average
• 7 Sectors Rising, 3 Sectors Declining
• 45.8% of Issues Advancing, 49.0% Declining
• 66 New 52-Week Highs, 29 New Lows
• 45.8% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 36.9%
• Vix 10.4 -.4%
• Total Put/Call .68 -11.7%
• TRIN/Arms 1.14 +32.5%