Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -.3%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Coal -1.2% 2) Oil Service -1.1% 3) Computer Hardware -1.1%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• RIOT, SQ, QDEL, ASYS, WDC, XNET and OSTK

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) DKS 2) SCHW 3) DVN 4) TSN 5) UNIT

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) SQ 2) AMDA 3) SEDG 4) DPZ 5) DWDP

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.1%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Telecom +.6% 2) Utilities +.5% 3) Networking +.4%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• TIME, UEPS, MDP, CUDA, DAIO, GLYC, EYE, TNC, SWIR, TRIL, BITA, AMZN, NGG, MATW, KL, YRD, RGA, CEVA, TOCA, SIG, BSM, AXE, TEVA, ILMN and DE

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) ADSK 2) WDC 3) MCHP 4) WHR 5) LRCX

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) CIEN 2) ALNA 3) DE 4) HD 5) CWCO

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -10.0% Below 100-Day Average
• 8 Sectors Rising, 2 Sectors Declining
• 42.6% of Issues Advancing, 54.3% Declining
• 123 New 52-Week Highs, 20 New Lows
• 60.8% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 50.0%
• Vix 9.9 +2.0%
• Total Put/Call .80 -5.9%
• TRIN/Arms 1.04 -3.4%

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Aramco Sees Oil Market Balanced as U.A.E. Dismisses Shale Threat. Global crude inventories are declining and supply and demand are in balance, according to the head of Saudi Aramco, while the United Arab Emirates energy minister said U.S. shale oil doesn’t threaten OPEC’s efforts to support the market. Demand for crude is continuing to rise and oil inventories are returning to the levels of the past five years, Aramco Chief Executive Officer Amin Nasser said Sunday in the eastern Saudi city of Dhahran. “This is helping prices improve,” he said, as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allied suppliers prepared to gather this week in Vienna to assess the market.

• Not Even Egypt's Deadliest Terror Attack Can Faze Stock Traders. Holders of Egyptian stocks seem to have developed thick skin. The benchmark index rose 0.8 percent in Cairo on Sunday even after more than 300 people were killed in a militant attack in northern Sinai on Friday. “No one is in shock as investors have, unfortunately, become immune to such events,” said Ashraf Akhnoukh, the director of Middle East and North Africa sales trading at Arqaam Capital. Still, “there is negative sentiment triggered by the attack.”

• Shell Joins Automakers to Offer Charging Stations Across Europe. Royal Dutch Shell Plc is linking up with some of the world’s biggest carmakers to expand its electric-vehicle charging business in Europe as it prepares for life beyond oil. The second-biggest oil company has agreed with IONITY -- a Munich-based venture between BMW Group, Daimler AG, Ford Motor Co. and Volkswagen AG -- to start charging stations in 10 European nations, Shell said on Monday in a statement.

• Asia Stocks to Nudge Higher, South Africa in Focus. Asian stocks look set to build on record prices after fresh highs for U.S. equities and little in the way of news flow over the weekend to dampen sentiment ahead of a busy week with data on the health of the world’s biggest economies. Equity-index futures in Japan, China and Hong Kong climbed after the S&P 500 Index closed at a record 2,602.42 level. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index was little changed at the open. The South African rand halted its slide triggered by S&P Global Ratings cutting the country’s local-currency debt to junk on Friday, sending the currency 2 percent lower. Bitcoin surged 13 percent over the weekend. Futures on Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average added 0.2 percent in Singapore. Futures on the FTSE China A50 Index gained 0.2 percent and contracts on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index added 0.4 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index was flat.

• Rising Oil Prices Reignite the OPEC-US Shale Rivalry.

• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day.

• Here’s What the World's Central Banks Really Think About Bitcoin.

• Republicans Rush to Shore Up Support Ahead of Senate Tax Debate. Republican lawmakers are scrambling to lock up the votes need to finalize a tax bill that can make it to President Donald Trump’s desk by the end of the year, days before the Senate prepares to debate its version. “I hope we can get it done by Christmas,” Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina said Sunday on ABC’s “This Week.” “If not, we’ll be here through Christmas, looking at the end of the year.”

• Bond Traders Start to See Crack in Fed's Resolve About Inflation. Traders are about to find out just how worried Federal Reserve officials are about the outlook for inflation. The depth of that angst has ramifications for the U.S. bond market’s dominant trend: the flattening yield curve. Fed Chair Janet Yellen and the nominee to succeed her, Jerome Powell, lead a busy lineup of central bankers speaking this week. They may opine on inflation after minutes of their most recent meeting published last week showed several policy makers were concerned about low expectations for consumer-price gains and underscored that further interest-rate hikes will hinge on economic data. It’s only fitting, then, that the Fed’s preferred gauge of price growth will also be released this week, with a survey of economists indicating it’s likely to slow to a 1.5 percent year-on-year pace.

Wall Street Journal:

• San Francisco’s Problem Isn’t Robots; It’s the $15 Wage Floor. The city fears automation will replace workers—but its own policies make low-value jobs illegal.

• The Economy Is Humming, but Businesses Aren’t Borrowing. Banks see slowing loan growth as economy show signs of picking up.

• Showdown Looms at Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. Leadership contest is the latest battle to control agency’s direction.

• OPEC Plus Adds Uncertainty to Oil Market. Russia’s importance to a deal to extend oil export cuts means that it holds the cards for OPEC and the deal will be less certain. 

• Surge in Migrants Creates Abysmal Conditions on Greek Islands. Refugees complain about flooding, fighting and rats at reception centers; ‘I hate Europe’.

• How Tax Reform Will Lift the Economy. We believe the Republican bills could boost GDP 3% to 4% long term by reducing the cost of capital.

• Tax Reform, Growth and the Deficit. A U.S. growth rate of 1.9% will never balance the federal budget.

Fox News:

• Trump admin keeps open PLO's Washington office in apparent attempt to steady Middle East peace talks. (video)

CNBC:

• OPEC meeting countdown: RBC's Helima Croft sees a Russia factor creating downside risks in oil market. (video)

• Baby boomers, like millennials, are flocking to rentals offering a 'hands-free' lifestyle.

• 'Tis the Season to get Hacked: How to keep your online shopping spree from becoming a mark for thieves.

• UAE's Mubadala ready to double down on tech as part of SoftBank Vision Fund. (video)

• In stock market rally that won't quit, JPMorgan says the bear case is missing one critical element. (video)

Zero Hedge:

• US And South Korea To Conduct Massive Air Force Exercise Aimed At North Korea.

• Meet Laikago: China's $25,000 Robo-Labrador.

• Meredith, Koch Brothers Buy Time Inc In $2.8 Billion Deal.

• Self-Driving Cars And Deciding Who Lives And Dies - Sacrificing Your Family For The "Greater Good".

• OPEC, Russia Said To Announce Oil Pact Extension On Nov 30.

• Goldman(GS): These Are The Three Biggest Risks Facing Stocks In 2018.

• Upstate New York Mall Evacuated After Shooter Injures Multiple Victims.

• Black Friday Posts New Single-Day Record For Gun Background-Checks.

• "Icon For Womens' Rights" Conyers Steps Down From Judiciary Committee Despite Support From Pelosi. 

• "Jones Would Be A Disaster" - Trump Tweets "The Last Thing We Need In Alabama" Is A Democrat.

Business Insider:

• 50 startups that will boom in 2018, according to VCs.

• Flights cancelled, people evacuated after massive Bali volcano erupts.

• In an awkward interview, Nancy Pelosi defends Democratic congressman accused of sexual harassment.

• Amazon's(AMZN) best Cyber Monday deals you'd never find on your own.

• We went through all of Best Buy’s Cyber Monday deals so you don’t have to.

• Walmart(WMT) is crushing Target(TGT) in 3 critical ways.

• Bitcoin soars above $9,400 to new record high. (graph)

• The 25 best Cyber Monday deals of 2017 we found so far.

• Sen. Franken says he's 'embarrassed and ashamed' but will return to work on Monday.

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.75% to unch. on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 76.75 -.25 basis point.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 15.0 -.75 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 73.25 -.05%.

• S&P 500 futures -.12%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.14%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

• (TECD)/1.91

• (THO)/1.84

• (MTSC)/.35

Economic Releases   
10:00 am EST

• New Home Sales for October are estimated to fall to 625K versus 667K in September.
  

10:30 am EST

• Dallas Fed Manf. Activity for November is estimated to fall to 24.0 versus 27.6 in October.
  

Upcoming Splits

• (CGNX) 2-for-1
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Dudley speaking, Fed's Kashkari speaking, China Industrial Production report, German Retail Sales report, 2/5 Yr T-Note auctions, Goldman Sachs Metals/Mining Conference and the CSFB Tech/Media/Telecom Conference could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

• Week Ahead on Wall Street by CNBC.
• Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters. 
• Stocks to Watch Next Week by Seeking Alpha.
• Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly higher on tax reform hopes, yen weakness, seasonal strength, buyout speculation, short-covering and economic optimism. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Catalan Leader Doubles Down on Independence Pledge. Puigdemont, who maintains he’s the legitimate regional president after being sacked by the central government, will lead a new platform under the banner of Together for Catalonia. He said on Saturday a victory at the polls on Dec. 21 would serve to ratify his mandate and send a signal to the European Union, which has repeatedly sided with the government of Mariano Rajoy against unilateral attempts for independence. “The people of Catalonia have shown the world we have the capacity and the will to become an independent state,” Puigdemont told an audience in Bruges, Belgium, where he’s been staying since declaring independence last month. “On Dec. 21, we must ratify that.”

• URGENT: The Latest: Survivors' Horrific Accounts of Egypt Attack. 

• Macron Unveils Measures to Combat Violence Against French Women. French President Emmanuel Macron proposed a series of measures including special police internet hotlines and a large public campaign to combat violence against women, an issue thrust into a public debate by revelations involving film producer Harvey Weinstein. In a speech in Paris, Macron said the fight against violence towards women would be "the great cause" of his five years in office, adding that France needed to "win this fight."

• Oil Options Are the Cheapest in Three Years With OPEC Meeting Approaching.

• Jeff Bezos’s Net Worth Just Broke $100 Billion.

• AirPods and Outerwear Start Out Strong This Holiday Shopping Season. Will this year’s Black Friday finally spark a sustained retail comeback? While the answer remains to be seen, the sellers of outerwear and gadgets such as Apple AirPods and the Sony Playstation VR have reason to be encouraged. Those were some of the hottest sellers so far during the Black Friday weekend, the traditional kickoff to the holiday season. In the toy category, L.O.L. Surprise, Hatchimals and Colleggtibles led the way, according to a report from Adobe Systems Inc. A survey from Deloitte & Touche, meanwhile, showed that shoppers were purchasing apparel, gift cards and electronics.

Wall Street Journal:

• What the NFL Teaches Corporate America. A tainted CEO quickly becomes the tail that wags every dog.

• Black Friday Kicks Off, With Upbeat Shoppers and Fewer Discounts. 

• Three Simple Ways to Kick Your Smartphone Addiction.

• YouTube Faces Fresh Backlash After Ads Appear Near Pedophile Comments. Mars, Adidas and Diageo are among the companies that have paused advertising on YouTube.

Barron's:

• Had bullish commentary on (BABA), (VMC),  (VZ), (AGU), (MOS), (BZUN), (HTHT) and (JD).

Fox News:

• Trump to visit GOP Senate in push to deliver tax 'Christmas present' to Americans.

CNBC:

• Egypt raises death toll in Sinai mosque attack to 305.

• Smartphones steal Black Friday dollars, as mobile sales break records.

• Mark Cuban: Only invest in bitcoin if you're prepared to lose your money.

• Black Friday boosts battered department stores, some of which are claiming a 'record' weekend.

• An increasing number of college students in California are turning to food stamps: San Francisco Gate.

Zero Hedge:

• Former Secret Service Agent Threatens To Reveal Details About Bill Clinton And Epstein's "Lolita Express".

• China's Corporate Debt Unexpectedly Rises At Fastest Pace In Four Years, As A New Risk Emerges.

• "Not Our Fault" - ECB Says "Fake Data" Is To Blame For The Coming "Manias And Panics". 

• Russia Responds: Putin Signs 'Foreign Agents' Media Bill Into Law.

• Welcome To 2030. I Own Nothing, Have No Privacy... And Life Has Never Been Better.

• Saturday Humor: A Millennial Job Interview.

• "He Can't Accept The Fact He Screwed Up" - Special Counsel Mueller's Surprisingly Flawed Past.

• Bitcoin, Ether Soar To New All-Time Highs; $10,000 In Sight.

• The Party's Over For Australia's $5.6 Trillion Housing Frenzy.

• "This Is A Paralyzed Market": Hedge Fund Turnover Drops To All Time Low.

•  Automation Nation: America's Largest Employer 'Secretly' Tests Self-Driving Floor-Scrubbers.

• George Soros' $18 Billion Tax Dodge Exposed.

• More Evidence BoJ Desperate To Steepen Yield Curve.

• How Colin Kaepernick 'Celebrated' Thanksgiving.

• Russian Anger Builds In Town Next To Leaking Nuclear Plant.

• FBI Warns Of Growing Threat Of Left-Wing Violence.

• Is $40 WTI Now More Realistic Than $60?

• Stocks Surge On Biggest Short Squeeze Since Election As Dollar Dumps To Worst Year Since 2009. (graph)

Business Insider:

• Stores were emptier than ever this Black Friday — but sales are soaring.

• The Model 3 is putting Tesla(TSLA) in dangerous territory.

• Uber is pinning its future on 'tens of thousands' of self-driving Volvo-Ubers.

• Walmart(WMT) is building a new empire by gobbling up smaller brands and letting them live in a 'free' marketplace. 

• Officials say the gunmen involved in Egypt's deadly mosque attack were linked to ISIS.

• The Tesla(TSLA) Semi will start at $150,000 and a longer-range version will sell for $180,000.

• Amazon(AMZN) seizes half of all online Black Friday sales in an 'eye-popping' show of dominance.

• Inside the rapid rise of Saudi Arabia's millennial crown prince who is now leading a TIME Magazine poll for its 2017 'Person of the Year'.