Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +16.9% Above 100-Day Average
• 8 Sectors Rising, 3 Sector Declining
• 58.2% of Issues Advancing, 38.6% Declining
• 120 New 52-Week Highs, 18 New Lows
• 56.6% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 53.2%
• Vix 12.5 -4.0%
• Total Put/Call .75 -25.0%
• TRIN/Arms .91 -36.4%

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 65.5 -1.0 basis point.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 43.5 +.5 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 67.50 +.01%.

• S&P 500 futures +.10%

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.06%.

Morning Preview Links 

Earnings of Note 

Company/Estimate

• (JPM)/2.35
• (PNC)/2.60
• (WFC)/1.10

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Import Price Index MoM for March is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.6% gain in Feb.
• The Import Price Index ex Petro for March is estimated unch. versus a +.1% gain in Feb. 
• The Export Price Index for March is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.6% gain in Feb.

10:00 am EST

• Preliminary Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence for April is estimated to fall to 98.1 versus 98.4 in March.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The China export data could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to strengthen into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Oil Decline, Profit-Taking, Healthcare/Metals & Mining Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 13.3 -.15%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 130.61 +.46%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.08 +.12%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 36.17 +1.89%

• ISE Sentiment Index 109.0 +43.42%
  

• Total Put/Call 1.06 +19.1%

• NYSE Arms 1.60 -4.19%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 59.07 -1.11%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 512.0 -.43%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 70.43 -3.07%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 237.75 -6.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 66.58 -1.29%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 179.55 +2.26%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 161.08 -.08%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 9.0 -.75 basis point

• TED Spread 17.5 unch.

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -13.75 -.25 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 67.50 -.38%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.42% +1.0 basis point

• Yield Curve 15.0 unch.

• China Iron Ore Spot 91.20 USD/Metric Tonne -1.65%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -57.10 +5.2 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -47.30 +.6 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -4.50 +1.1 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.94 unch.
• 10.9% chance of Fed rate cut at June 19th meeting, 14.1% chance of cut at July 31st meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +9 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -53 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +11 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my biotech/retail sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: None

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -.1%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Steel -1.7% 2) Healthcare Providers -1.7% 3) Biotech -1.6%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• APOG, ICPT, BBBY, WTW, BPT, VFF and MTSI

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) AET 2) NRG 3) EBAY 4) RAD 5) ONCE

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) WTW 2) X 3) KDP 4) CATO 5) MC

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth +.2%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Homebuilders +1.3% 2) Airlines +1.2% 3) Defense +.9%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• AUTL, PAR, AIRG, EVH, FAST, STNG, TROX, STML, TIGR, GSKY, MSM, HLNE, WWE, CNS, GDDY, PATK, FIX, CUBI, SWP, BOOM, FIVE, UNM, DOMO, DPZ and TRUP

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) JBLU 2) FAST 3) ADSK 4) COL 5) GILD

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) FAST 2) FRSH 3) EVH 4) VMW 5) NOC

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -19.0% Below 100-Day Average
• 9 Sectors Rising, 2 Sector Declining
• 58.7% of Issues Advancing, 38.0% Declining
• 101 New 52-Week Highs, 12 New Lows
• 56.5% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 53.5%
• Vix 13.0 -2.3%
• Total Put/Call 1.46 +64.0%
• TRIN/Arms 1.27 -24.0%