Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 65.0 +1.0 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 42.25 +1.0 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.47 +.07%.

• S&P 500 futures -.10%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.02%.

Morning Preview Links 

Earnings of Note 

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (AAL)/.50
• (ADM)/.62
• (AZN)/.84
• (ALV)/1.60
• (AN)/.92
• (B)/.69
• (BLMN)/.73
• (COG)/.65
• (CVX)/1.33
• (CL)/.66
• (XOM)/.74
• (BEN)/.63
• (GT)/.12
• (LEA)/4.11
• (LYB)/2.18
• (SNE)/26.29 
• (TEN)/.95
• (WY)/.10
• (ZBH)/1.86

After the Close:

• None of note

Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

• 1Q GDP is estimated to rise +2.3% versus a +2.2% gain in 4Q. 
• 1Q Personal Consumption is estimated to rise +1.0% versus a +2.5% gain in 4Q.
• The 1Q GDP Price Index is estimated to rise +1.2% versus a +1.7% gain in 4Q.
• The 1Q Core PCE is estimated to rise +1.3% versus a +1.8% gain in 4Q.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Australia PPI report and the (SCHW) Business update could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to strengthen into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Earnings Optimism, Diminished "Medicare-For-All" Fears, Technical Buying, Medical/Biotech Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 12.84 -2.28%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 129.10 -.7%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.49 +2.54%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 35.1 -1.46%

• ISE Sentiment Index 94.0 +42.42%
  

• Total Put/Call .85 -2.3%

• NYSE Arms 1.03 -31.8%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 58.30 +.85%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 443.0 -.05%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 73.29 +3.23%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 269.75 +5.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 65.03 +1.95%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 194.42 -1.24%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 161.74 +.03%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 10.25 +1.0 basis point

• TED Spread 16.0 unch.

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -17.0 -1.0 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.39 -.27%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.42% unch.

• Yield Curve 20.75 +.5 basis point

• China Iron Ore Spot 88.68 USD/Metric Tonne +.50%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -68.80 -3.0 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -39.10 -.2 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -5.2 -6.1 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.98 +2.0 basis points
• 21.8% chance of Fed rate cut at June 19th meeting, 28.2% chance of cut at July 31st meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -62 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -147 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +45 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/medical/biotech sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: None

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth -.6%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Tobacco -3.1% 2) Homebuilding -2.7% 3) Networking -2.4%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• GRTS, WWE, XLNX, VC, PTC, MMM, BMA, PAM, HZO, GGAL, CMG, BC, ORLY, CRC, IRM, NTGR, SAVE, DLX, UPS, BCO, ADS, CLGX, ROK, BCO, WAB, MMSI, ASGN, TILE, FCX, BRY, PATK and TRN

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) MDCO 2) MMM 3) AET 4) TUR 5) EMB

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) CNSL 2) MMLP 3) XLNX 4) MMM 5) PTC

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.2%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Papers +2.9% 2) Software +1.6% 3) Biotech +.8%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• IGV, FB, HSKA, TZOO, EDF, CVI, AZPN, HEES, AAN, TSCO, OXY, SAM, ZUO, NOW, LEXEA, HSY, OIS, LRCX, UFPI, EIG, FBHS, CNMD, LSTR, SUI, LAZ, FCN, AVYA, LAD, MSFT and HSY

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) INDA 2) CARA 3) PAA 4) CPB 5) MMM

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) NOW 2) SAH 3) SHOO 4) VLO 5) MSFT

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +6.5% Above 100-Day Average
• 5 Sectors Rising, 6 Sectors Declining
• 29.2% of Issues Advancing, 67.6% Declining
• 72 New 52-Week Highs, 37 New Lows
• 58.5% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 51.2%
• Vix 13.8 +5.3%
• Total Put/Call .82 -5.8%
• TRIN/Arms .95 -37.1%

Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 64.0 +.75 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 41.25 +1.0 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 67.02 -.%.

• S&P 500 futures +.06%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.18%.

Morning Preview Links 

Earnings of Note 

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (ALXN)/2.19

• (ADS)/4.05

• (AB)/.54

• (MO)/.93

• (BAX)/.68

• (BWA)/.94

• (BMY)/1.08

• (CLF)/-.14

• (CMCSA)/.68

• (DHI)/.87

• (FCX)/.08

• (HSY)/1.47

• (HES)/-.27

• (ITW)/1.82

• (IP)/.93

• (NEM)/.27

• (ODFL)/1.57

• (RTN)/2.48

• (RS)/2.37

• (LUV)/.62

• (TSCO)/.61

• (UPS)/1.43

• (VLO)/.23

After the Close:

• (AFL)/1.06

• (ALK)/.15

• (AMZN)/4.66

• (BEAT)/.41

• (BGG)/.65

• (COF)/2.73

• (CERN)/.61

• (CY)/.24

• (DLR)/1.65

• (FII)/.56

• (FSLR)/-.12

• (F)/.27

• (ILMN)/1.35

• (INTC)/.87

• (JNPR)/.20

• (MAT)/-.55

• (MHK)/2.06

• (SKYW)/1.15

• (SBUX)/.57

• (WERN)/.47

Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 200K versus 192K the prior week.

• Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 1682K versus 1653K the prior week.

• Durable Goods Orders for March are estimated to rise +.8% versus a -1.6% gain in Feb.

• Durables Ex Transports for March are estimated to rise +.2% versus a -.1% decline in Feb.

• Cap Goods Orders Non-Defense Ex-Air for March are estimated to rise +.2% versus a -.1% decline in Feb.
  

11:00 am EST

• Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for April is estimated to fall to 9.0 versus 10.0 in March.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Japan CPI report, $32B 7Y T-Note auction, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index and the weekly EIA natural gas inventory report could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to strengthen into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.