Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Sector Rotation, Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Oil Decline, REIT/Restaurant Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Heavy

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 15.9 +4.0%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 123.22 +.20%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.27 +.61%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 37.65 +4.44%

• ISE Sentiment Index 99.0 +15.12%
  

• Total Put/Call .83 -14.4%

• NYSE Arms .83 +22.7%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 52.21 +1.07%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 402.0 -3.18%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 58.11 +.68%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 156.75 +4.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 57.94 -.27%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 201.29 +1.14%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 165.34 +.03%

• 2-Year Swap Spread -1.5 -1.5 basis points

• TED Spread 20.0 +4.5 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -15.25 -.5 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 65.73 +.03%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.94% -1.0 basis point

• Yield Curve .05 +2.0 basis points

• China Iron Ore Spot 88.60 USD/Metric Tonne -.24%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 7.0 -.6 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -37.20 -3.1 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -15.6 +.6 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.59 +2.0 basis points
• 100.0% chance of Fed rate cut at Oct. 30th meeting, 100.0% chance of cut at Dec. 11th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -112 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +18 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +16 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my retail/industrial/biotech sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: None

• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +1.3%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Retail +2.3% 2) Oil Service +1.7% 3) Banks +1.5%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• TRC, ACAD, CMTL, SOHU, MRTN, LMNR, IMMU, JAZZ, MFGP, GTS, SAH, CLW, MDP, SKT, DOCU, SIG, SNP, UFI, NPO, HI, CENT, CASY, DOMO, EBIX, TCO, AIMT, ALEC, VRS, SKT, FOCS, GCP, ITCI, TCO, EQM, MAC and WLH

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) EXC 2) AMC 3) USAT 4) AIG 5) RH

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) SLB 2) DD 3) CTL 4) ORCL 5) BA

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +44.0% Above 100-Day Average
• 4 Sectors Rising, 7 Sectors Declining
• 54.2% of Issues Advancing, 42.8% Declining
• 68 New 52-Week Highs, 13 New Lows
• 56.4% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 51.0%
• Vix 15.9 +4.0%
• Total Put/Call .88 -9.3%
• TRIN/Arms .60 -9.1%

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:   

• MPs Again Reject Johnson's Bid for Early Election: Brexit Update.

• Asia Stocks Seen Mixed; Sovereign Yields Climb.  

• Oil Extends Gains as New Saudi Minister Expects Cuts to Continue.

• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day.     

• Software Stocks Plunge as Investors Grow Wary of Valuations.

Wall Street Journal:

• Moody’s Cuts Ford’s Bond Rating to Junk Status.

• Judge Blocks Trump Restrictions on Asylum Claims Nationwide.

• Scientists Discover New Evidence of the Asteroid That Killed Off the Dinosaurs.

• The World Expected a Chinese Tech Takeover. Alibaba Can’t Even Conquer Vietnam.

• FDA Warns Juul About Marketing Products as Safer Than Cigarettes.

Fox News:

• WATCH LIVE: Trump unloads on 'disloyal' Dem House candidate at rally ahead of NC special election.

CNBC:

• Jim Cramer breaks down the stocks investors are rotating to on trade and Fed hopes.

• Stocks are expected to break out to new highs, barring any errant presidential trade tweets

• State probes into Big Tech are a ‘backstop’ in case the feds back down, say antitrust experts.

• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Wendy’s, Ford and more.

Zero Hedge:

• Illinois' Record $47 Billion Loss Ignored By Mainstream Media. Why?

• Border Arrests Plummet 60% Since May As Trump Immigration Crackdown Gets Results.

• North Korea Test-Fires Two More Missiles Just Hours After Suggesting "Willingness To Sit With US".

• Consumer Credit Card Debt Explodes In July Despite Rates At 18-Year Highs.

• Millennials' Trading Accounts Battered By Wrong-Way Bets On Uber, Pot Stocks.

• The National Debt Is Now More Than Ten Times Annual Tax Receipts.

• As The NFL Season Begins, The Social Decay In NFL Cities Is Worse Than Ever.

• "Biggest Quant Quake" Since Tech Blowup Era Sparks Fears Over Low/Min Vol Funds.

• Quant Carnage Wrecks Tech As Small Caps Soar On Financial Frenzy.

Business Insider: 

• WeWork's biggest outside shareholder, SoftBank, is reportedly asking for the IPO to be put on hold because investors don't seem interested.

• THE DIGITAL HEALTH ECOSYSTEM: An in-depth examination of the players and tech trends reshaping the future of healthcare.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 58.0 -.75 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 39.25 -.5 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index  65.72 +.01%.

• FTSE 100 futures n/a.

• S&P 500 futures +.18%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.29%.

Morning Preview Links 

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (HDS)/1./08

After the Close:

• (PLAY)/.85

• (GME)/-.22

• (RH)/2.70

• (ZS)/.02

Economic Releases
6:00 am EST

• The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for August is estimated to fall to 103.5 versus 104.7 in July.

10:00 am EST

• JOLTS Job Openings for July is estimated to fall to 7331 versus 7348 in June.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Treasury's Mnuchin testimony on housing reform, China inflation data report, $38B 3Y T-Note auction, (AAPL) special event, US weekly retail sales reports, BofA Merrill Real Estate Conference, RBC Industrials Conference, Deutsche Bank Tech Conference and the (TWNK) investor day could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Profit-Taking, Higher Long-Term Rates, Emerging Market Debt Angst, Tech/Medical Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 15.8 +5.4%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 122.99 +.45%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.20 -.61%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 37.20 -1.35%

• ISE Sentiment Index 89.0 +15.6%
  

• Total Put/Call .93 +2.2%

• NYSE Arms .66 -48.4%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.44 -.06%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 418.0 +.12%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 57.72 +1.62%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 152.75 +1.25 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 58.06 -.94%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 198.49 +.48%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 165.30 +.05%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 0.0 -3.75 basis points

• TED Spread 15.5 +.25 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -14.75 -1.25 basis points

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 65.71 -.09%

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.95% unch.

• Yield Curve .03 -1.0 basis point

• China Iron Ore Spot 88.84 USD/Metric Tonne +2.88%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 7.6 +2.2 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -34.10 +2.8 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -16.2 -1.4 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.57 +2.0 basis points

• 100.0% chance of Fed rate cut at Oct. 30th meeting, 100.0% chance of cut at Dec. 11th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -108 open in Japan 

• China A50 Futures: Indicating +24 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -12 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my retail/industrial sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long