Friday, February 04, 2022

Weekly Scoreboard*


S&P 500 4,436.97 +2.33%


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com. 

Indices
  • DJIA 35,182.40 +1.52%
  • NASDAQ 14,140.80 +2.95%
  • Russell 2000 2,013.48 +2.3%
  • S&P 500 High Beta 75.1 +4.0%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 239.88 +5.0%
  • Wilshire 5000 45,689.78 +2.3%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 2,799.32 +2.7%
  • Russell 1000 Value 1,632.60 +2.27%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 794.09 +.78%
  • MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,345.98 -1.15%
  • NYSE Technology 3,849.83 +4.6%
  • Transports 15,281.60 +1.57%
  • Utilities 947.07 +.57%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 85.6 +2.7%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 48.89 +2.95%
  • HFRX Equity Hedge 1,473.49 +1.4%
  • HFRX Equity Market Neutral 930.25 -.06%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 470,586 +.73%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -314 +1,103
  • Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -35.9 +.12%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 373,415 -3.2%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,095,994 +1.8%
  • Total Put/Call .95 -3.9%
  • OEX Put/Call 2.63 +31.7%
  • ISE Sentiment 102.0 +10.0 points
  • NYSE Arms .55 -24.2
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,658.0 +1,048.0 points
  • Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index + Bubbles 4.25 +6.5%
  • Volatility(VIX) 23.1 -11.6%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 38.93 -5.1%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 6.91 unch.
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 9.15 -5.0%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 14,262.54 +11.0%
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $4.628 Trillion -.38%
  • ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -3.439 Million
  • AAII % Bulls 26.5 +14.7%
  • AAII % Bears 43.7 -17.4%
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 259.99 +2.8%
  • Crude Oil 92.3 +6.2%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 267.80 +5.3%
  • Natural Gas 4.52 +1.8%
  • Heating Oil 287.81 +3.1% 
  • Newcastle Coal 202.5.0 (1,000/metric ton) -10.8%
  • Gold 1,807.11 +.9%
  • Silver 22.49 -.02%
  • S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 520.90 +.96%
  • Copper 449.45 +3.4%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 498.0 USD/Metric Tonne +5.3%
  • China Iron Ore Spot 144.90 USD/Metric Tonne +4.7%
  • Lumber 1,069.90 +4.4%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,418.20 +1.4%
  • US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 625.0 USD/Short Ton -3.1%
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +.1% unch.
  • ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate +3.4% +.2 percentage point
  • Bloomberg US Recession Probability Next 12 Months 15.0% unch.
  • NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 5.62 +9.6%
  • US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 268.40 +30.4%
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 226.37 +.58%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -4.6 -1.9 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 53.1 +2.4 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 30.4 -5.8 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change, 100.0%(unch.) chance of rate hike on 3/16
  • US Dollar Index 95.4 -1.8%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,739.17 +.43%
  • Bitcoin/USD 40,444 +6.7%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 135.99 +2.7%
  • Yield Curve 61.25 -1.75 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 1.92% +14.0 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $8.835 Trillion +.15%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 12.0 +2.7%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 127.78 -.02%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 154.0 +21.0 basis points
  • China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 50.98 +1.3%
  • Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 223.27 -2.3%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 37.5 -.3%
  • South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 26.18 +6.1%
  • Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 200.59 -11.6%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 31.58 unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.40% -5.0 basis points
  • TED Spread 9.0 -3.0 basis points
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 17.0 +1.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -11.75 +1.0 basis points
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 63.39 +5.1%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 362.0 -1.6%
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 71.75 +6.6%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 215.35 +.6%
  • MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 86.75 +.5 basis point
  • Markit CMBX BBB-6 75.25 unch.
  • M2 Money Supply YoY % Change 13.1 unch.
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,022.70 -.2%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 255,000 +3.1%
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% unch.
  • Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 31.2 +3.7% 
  • Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 3.84% +6.0 basis points
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 617,800 +12.0%
  • Weekly Retail Sales +15.2% +.2 percentage point
  • OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change from 2019 -26.0% -6.6 percentage points
  • Nationwide Gas $3.42/gallon +.06/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 1,425 +3.2%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 3,565.33 n/a
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 17.5 unch.
  • Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 183.20 +3.9%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 256,665 +1.0%
  • TSA Total Traveler Throughput 1,339,533 +25.1%
  • US Covid-19:  755 infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 44.0%(-30.0 percentage points) of peak on 1/14/22  -490/100K people from prior week
  • US Covid-19:  New patient hospital admissions per 100K -25.7%(-15.1 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22-1/15/22
Best Performing Style
  • Mid-Cap Growth +2.7%
Worst Performing Style
  • Small-Cap Value unch.
Leading Sectors
  • Steel +6.5%
  • Video Gaming +6.1%
  • Energy +5.2%
  • I-Banks +4.9%
  • Alt Energy +4.1%
Lagging Sectors
  • REITs -.4%
  • Education -.9%
  • Tobacco -1.1%
  • Retail -1.8%
  • Homebuilding -1.8%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (18)
  • BILL, MGNI, CHWY, MARA, TGNA, TTWO, VIVO, NLOK, SKX, COLM, DWAC, OB, CLR, EBAY, ALBO, EL, LPLA and SWCH
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (15)
  • AVY, MNRO, OHI, PMT, SBH, THS, LQDT, OMI, BZH, MDC, LGF/B, ENR, LGF/A, LYLT and CLX
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on US Economic Data, Earnings Optimism, Short-Covering, Energy/Tech Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line:  Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume:  Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 23.2 -4.7%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,645.0 +300.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 135.95 +.32%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.2 -.9%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 39.40 -5.8% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 97.0  +14.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .95 -12.8%
  • NYSE Arms .55 -47.1%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 63.46 +2.0%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 403.11 -.32%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 72.89 +3.8%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 154.0 +4.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 92.75 +2.44%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 215.82 +2.3%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 31.54 -.05% 
  • Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 769.06 +1.2%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 17.0 +.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 9.0 -2.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -11.75 +.25 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  88.0 +1.5 basis points
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 75.25 +.5 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 54.36 -.11%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .21% +2.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 61.25 -1.75 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 144.85 USD/Metric Tonne -.2%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -4.6 +.7 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 53.10 -5.0 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 30.40 +.3 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.40 -3.0 basis points
  • 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at May 4th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at June 15th meeting
US Covid-19:
  • 755 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 44.0%(-4.0 percentage points) of 1/14 peak -67/100K people from prior report.
  • New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -28.3%(-5.7 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -100 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +195 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +87 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my commodity/tech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades:  Covered some  of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure:  Moved to 75% Net Long

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +23.3% Above 100-Day Average 
  • 3 Sectors Rising, 7 Sectors Declining
  • 28.3% of Issues Advancing, 68.4% Declining
  • 42 New 52-Week Highs, 178 New Lows
  • 41.3% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 45.6% 
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,460.0 +115.0 points
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 16,681.0 +.68%
  • Vix 25.7 +5.5%
  • Total Put/Call .94 -13.8%
  • TRIN/Arms .50 -51.9%

Thursday, February 03, 2022

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:         
Fox News:  
CNBC.com: 
Zero Hedge:
Newsmax:
TheGatewayPundit.com: 
Twitter: 
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 91.25 +.5 basis point. 
  • China Sovereign CDS 50.25 +.25 basis point.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 54.42 +.01%. 
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,363.0 +18.0 points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 25.3 -3.1%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.17%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.86%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +1.55%. 
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 
 
Before the Open: 
  • (APD)/2.50
  • (BMY)/1.80
  • (CBOE)/1.54
  • (ETN)/1.71
  • (REGN)/19.41
  • (RCL)/-3.92
After the Close:
  • None of note
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for Jan. is estimated to fall to +150K versus +199K in Dec.
  • The Unemployment Rate for Jan. is estimated at 3.9% versus 3.9% in Dec.
  • Average Hourly Earnings MoM for Jan. is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.6% gain in Dec. 
  • The Labor Force Participation Rate for Jan. is estimated at 61.9% versus 61.9% in Dec.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Eurozone Factory Orders report could also impact global trading today.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Falling Substantially into Afternoon on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Escalating Russia/Ukraine Tensions, Technical Selling, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line:  Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  • Volume:  Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 24.0 +8.7%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,388.0 +6.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 135.44 +1.6%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.2 -.4%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 38.60 +16.0% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 83.0  -2.0 points
  • Total Put/Call 1.07 +11.5%
  • NYSE Arms .87 -13.0%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 62.64 +5.2%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 403.41 +.71%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 70.24 +7.8%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 150.0 +11.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 90.55 -.6%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 210.50 +2.4%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 31.69 +.05% 
  • Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 741.11 +1.4%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 16.5 +.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 11.5 -.75 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -12.0 unch.
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  86.5 +.5 basis point
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 75.25 +.5 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 54.42 -.11%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .19% +1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 63.0 unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 145.35 USD/Metric Tonne +.4%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -5.3 +1.5 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 58.10 -8.3 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 30.10 +.5 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.40 -3.0 basis points
  • 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at May 4th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at June 15th meeting
US Covid-19:
  • 822 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 48.0%(-6.0 percentage points) of 1/14 peak -102/100K people from prior report.
  • New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -22.7%(unch.) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -136 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +157 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -15 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Lower: On losses in my industrial/commodity/tech/transport sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, took profits in my transport longs
  • Market Exposure:  Moved to 25% Net Long