Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +8.8% Above 100-Day Average 
• 7 Sectors Declining, 4 Sectors Rising
• 56.5% of Issues Advancing, 39.0% Declining
• 25 New 52-Week Highs, 23 New Lows
• 29.8% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 52.6% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,296.0 -6.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 15,911.0 +.27%
  
• Vix 22.8 -.3%
• Total Put/Call .95 -5.9%
• TRIN/Arms .71 -50.0%

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:         

• Biden Team Tries to Blunt China Rage as Pelosi Heads for Taiwan.
  
• This Is Why China Is So On Edge About Nancy Pelosi’s Visit to Taiwan.
  
• China Repeats Military Would Take Action If Pelosi Visits Taiwan.  
• US-China Tension, Growth Fears May Sap Asia Stocks: Markets Wrap.
• Gold Rises to Four-Week High Ahead of Fresh US Economic Data.
• Manchin-Schumer Deal Has a New Hurdle: Kyrsten Sinema.
• GOP’s Toomey Rips Tax and Climate Bill, Looks to Sinema to Stop It.
• Manchin Side-Deal Seeks to Advance Mountain Valley Pipeline.
• Manchin Spending Deal Includes Billions in Oil Import Taxes.
• Credit Suisse Outlook Cut by S&P Global on Management Shuffle, Run of Losses.  
• Jefferies Expects $80 Million Fine in Wall Street Texting Probe.  
• Michigan’s Whitmer Woos Chip Plants After US Passes Incentives.  
• Soaring US Diesel Exports Underscore Global Fuel Vulnerability.  
• Bitcoiners Are Trying to Redefine the Word 'Inflation'.
• Revival of Bear Market’s Laggards Shows Perils of July Rebound.  
• Chaos in Bond Market Is Dangerous Side Effect of Inflation Fight.  
• Hedge Funds That Charge Most Tend to Perform Best, Barclays Study Shows.

Wall Street Journal:    

• U.S. Drone Strike Killed al Qaeda Leader al Zawahiri in Afghanistan.
• Market Mayhem Triggers Deal-Making Drought.
• First Ukraine Grain Shipment Departs Since Invasion.
• Boy Scouts Near Bankruptcy End, but Face Challenges.
• Facing Labor Shortages, Pella Reinvents the Company Town in Rural Iowa.
• Accountability at the United Auto Workers. A federal monitor’s report raises red flags about the union.
• TD Bank Nears Deal to Buy Cowen.
• People Start Buying More Essentials at Dollar Stores.
• Activision Blizzard Profit Slumps as Sales Shrink.
• Europe’s Energy Crisis Threatens to Slow Green Transition.
• Balkans Flare-Up Highlights Risk of Other European Conflicts.

Fox News:

• Biden praises military for taking out bin Laden's successor and keeping America safe.
• Wyoming voters crystal clear on how they feel about Cheney running again.
• White House official snaps at reporter for 'manufacturing' Pelosi trip 'drama'.

CNBC.com:

• AGCO CEO says he expects grain shortage to last into next year.
• Home prices cooled at a record pace in June, housing data firm says.
• Biden administration faces midnight court deadline to defend $350 billion of Trump’s China tariffs.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Pinterest, Simon Property Group, Avis Budget and more.
• Starbucks union asks coffee giant to extend pay hikes, benefits to unionized stores.

MarketWatch:        

• 5 factors drive the cost of new homes — and all of them are squeezing builders and buyers now.
  
• Apple raises $5.5 billion in debt after upbeat earnings, iPhone sales offset fears of a consumer pullback.
  
• Pinterest stock jumps more than 20% despite earnings miss, as Elliott confirms stake and users stick around.
  
• SEC charges 11 with creating, promoting $300 million crypto ‘Ponzi scheme’.

Zero Hedge:

• Barrage Of Central Bankers Warn Markets Powell Hasn't "Pivoted" But Is It Too Late.
• Here Are The 5 Chinese Military Response Scenarios If Pelosi Visits Taiwan.
• Jon Stewart Melts Down At Jack Posobiec Outside Capitol - Then Makes Peace.
• US Department Of Commerce Asks Gun Holster Companies For Sales Records. 
• Barclays Faces Billion-Dollar Loss From Structured Note 'Paperwork Error'.
• The Mind-Blowing Stupidity Behind The $280 Billion 'Chips For America Act'.
• China's Housing Market Slump Becomes A Real Issue.
• Mike Wilson Explains When This Bear Market Rally Ends, And Stocks Crash Again.
• Austin Fitts: "We're At War With The Deep State Globalists".
• Max frustration market stays alive.
• Semiconductor Inventories In South Korea Surge Most In 6 Years As Reverse Bullwhip Effect Takes Hold.
• US stocks were subdued amid tensions regarding Pelosi's potential Taiwan visit - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Zelensky Thanks Biden For Fresh $550M In Military Aid, Claiming Ukraine "Closer To Victory".
• Senate Dem Proposal Would Hike Taxes On Lower Incomes.
• Pelosi's Taiwan trip and plummet in ISM prices paid hits yields and the Dollar - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• White House Says Russia Made 'Bad Faith, Non-Serious' Prisoner Swap Proposal.
• Justice Thomas' Withdrawal From GWU Exposes The Growing "Unavailability" Of Diverse Opinions In Higher Education.
• Markets Turmoil As Bad News Is Not Great News Anymore.
• Here Are The Best And Worst Performing Assets In July And YTD.

Newsmax:

• Dick Morris: Biden 'Weak Puppet' Over Pelosi's Asia Trip.

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

• Guy Reffitt Sentenced to 7 Years and 3 Months For Protesting Outside Capitol on January 6th. Prosecution’s Request for Terrorism “Upwards Departure” Denied! HIS SON JACKSON ASKED FOR MAXIMUM SENTENCE FOR HIS DAD IN LETTER TO COURT!
• Kamala Harris Says Recent Deaths From Flooding in Missouri and Kentucky Could Have Been Prevented if Congress Spent More Money to Fight Climate Change (VIDEO).
• UPDATE: Elections Operative Who Deleted Maricopa Database Before Machines Were Turned Over to Auditors DID NOT HAVE PROPER ACCESS to Room – Knew Exactly What to Delete!
• Disney’s Woke Agenda Continues- First Out Trans Character Will Debut on The Disney Channel.
• FOX News Shuns Trump from Network for 100 Days and Counting — Elites Hope to Eliminate President as Major Player.
• EXCLUSIVE: Evidence of Election Irregularities and Potential Fraud Mechanisms in Virginia Presented to Top State Officials.
• GLOBAL WARMING MYTH: In 1995 The New York Times Warned that East Coast Beaches Will Be Gone in 25 Years.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 848,091 Reports(+2,483 from prior week) Through July 22nd, 2022.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 147.0 +7.75 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 83.25 +11.0 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 49.21 -.14%.  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,311.0 +12.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 26.1 +.19%
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a.

• S&P 500 futures -.15%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.09%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (BP)/.34
• (CAT)/3.02
• (CMI)/4.34
• (DBD)/-.13
• (DD)/.75
• (ETN)/1.82
• (EXPD)/2.13
• (IT)/2.15
• (IDXX)/1.64
• (ITW)/2.23
• (IGT)/.33
• (JBLU)/-.11
• (LEA)/1.44
• (MAR)/1.57
• (TAP)/1.19
• (RGEN)/.71
• (SEE)/.96
• (SWI)/.20
• (SPWR)/.03
• (UBER)/-.05
• (ZBH)/1.64
  

After the Close:

• (AMD)/1.04
• (ABNB)/.52
• (ANDE)/1.03
• (CZR)/.16
• (CHK)/3.73
• (CRUS)/.83
• (CGNX)/.42
• (EA)/.28
• (GILD)/1.52
• (MTCH)/.62
• (MCHP)/1.34
• (MSTR)/-.85
• (OXY)/3.03
• (PYPL)/.87
• (PXD)/8.80
• (PRU)/2.33
• (RNG)/.40
• (SBUX)/.76
• (STE)/1.90
• (TEX)/.86

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

• JOLTS Job Openings for June is estimated to fall to 11000K versus 11254K in May.

Afternoon:

• Wards Total Vehicle Sales for July is estimated to rise to 13.45M versus 13.0M in June.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Bullard speaking, Eurozone PPI report, RBA rate decision and the weekly US retail sales reports could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by financial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Escalating China Tensions, US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, US High-Yield Debt Angst, Energy/Biotech Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance:  Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 23.2 +8.8%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.0% -5.1%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,328.0 -144.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 139.27 -.68%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.3 +2.3%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 44.8 +3.3% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 105.0 +29.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.01 +4.1%

• NYSE Arms 1.53 +37.8%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 82.5 +2.5%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 454.05 -1.54%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 436.0 -34.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 110.62 +1.0%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 211.0 basis points -10.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 143.86 +2.4%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 329.06 +.69%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.86 +.41%
  
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 11,737.0 +.84%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 26.25 basis points unch.
  

• TED Spread 47.25 basis points +3.25 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -17.5 basis points +1.0 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  112.0 -1.0 basis point
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 48.81 -.33%
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 1.02 +2.0 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 49.27 +.30%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.32% -1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve -30.5 basis points (2s/10s) -4.75 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 113.5 USD/Metric Tonne -2.6%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -56.5 +5.3 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -62.4 +1.5 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 22.3 -5.0 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.51 -2.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for November 2nd FOMC meeting: 63.7%(-4.3 percentage points) chance of 3.0%-3.25%. Highest target rate probability for December 14th meeting: 48.0%(-2.1 percentage points) chance of 3.25%-3.5%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 266 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 15.3%(-.8 percentage points) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) -12/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -72.7%(-2.2 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -73 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -121 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -11 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my industrial/tech/medical sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  None
  

• Market Exposure:  50% net long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value -.6%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Oil Service -3.3% 2) Energy -3.0% 3) Alt Energy -2.1%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• SPWR, KRP, LEGN, LCII, BEAM, CNX, L, CRGY, ULCC, J, ON, CBOE, ARRY, INFA, ARQT, SMTC, DRQ, MARA, BPT, RUN, AJRD, CRDO, RVMD, NOVA, RCL and JELD
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) CWH 2) DD 3) MNST 4) EWT 5) KWEB
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) LIND 2) WEBR 3) APYX 4) YQ 5) YMM
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +.1%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Retail +2.1% 2) Shipping +2.0% 3) Computer Services +.9%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• EVOP, GETY, OM, CELH, ROKU, MMSI, SMR, GFS, BA, GPN, PKI, SAVA and ARLP
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) CELH 2) EBIX 3) ALT 4) ANET 5) SPTN

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) BLDR 2) GOVX 3) RAD 4) MMSI 5) BA
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -6.8% Below 100-Day Average 
• 6 Sectors Declining, 5 Sectors Rising
• 51.4% of Issues Advancing, 43.8% Declining
• 24 New 52-Week Highs, 35 New Lows
• 29.8% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 52.6% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,377.0 -100.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 15,955.0 +.57%
  
• Vix 22.7 +6.2%
• Total Put/Call .96 -1.0%
• TRIN/Arms 1.13 +1.8%